Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!

Ledbetterman10 said:

Hillary picked her running-mate on July 22, 2016. So when's Biden going to do it? It may play a factor in the polls. 

The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

JimmyV said:

The Juggler said:

JimmyV said:

The Juggler said:

JimmyV said:

Jim Comey is a convenient boogieman, and maybe he did swing Florida and North Carolina to Trump, but there is no chance he alone is responsible for the discrepancies we saw in MI, Wi and PA. 

The passionate Nate Silver defenses are never not weird, and this exchange has been no exception. 

Yeah? Tell that to all the people who decided to vote for Trump in the last week of the election
59% in WI
54% in PA
50% in MI
I'll toss in 59% in FL for good measure.

-
You should read this when you have a little time:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

I read that when he first published it. 

As for late deciders, sure. They almost all broke from Clinton and Comey was certainly a big reason why. That there were so many late deciders is an indictment of Clinton and her campaign, but I personally don't believe everyone who claims to have only decided to vote for Trump in the last week. Trump is scum and was then, and most of America knew that. I personally think many of the 63 million who pulled the lever for him decided they were going to long before they admitted it to themselves or anyone else. And long before Comey's letter. No way to prove that, but I'm not willing to blindly accept as fact something a Trump voter tells me about their reasons for casting that vote. "Comey" is a lot easier to sell to your friends and family, to your kids, than racism and misogyny.   

Sounds like your issue is not with the polling or the forecasts, you just seem to disbelieve what people are saying to the exit polling people as they left their polling places. I don't know why they would lie in that instance. 

Clinton was a horrible candidate who didn't go to Wisconsin once. Of course it's an indictment on her campaign. But the bottom line is the vast majority of people who decided in the last week went to Trump and polling could not take that into account. And there was only one insanely huge political bombshell that dropped around that time that benefited Trump. So it's not hard to put two and two together here...

You don't know why someone would lie to a pollster about their reasons for voting for a candidate that was endorsed by David Duke and Breitbart? I can think of a few reasons. 

JimmyV said:

The Juggler said:

JimmyV said:

The Juggler said:

JimmyV said:

The Juggler said:

JimmyV said:

Jim Comey is a convenient boogieman, and maybe he did swing Florida and North Carolina to Trump, but there is no chance he alone is responsible for the discrepancies we saw in MI, Wi and PA. 

The passionate Nate Silver defenses are never not weird, and this exchange has been no exception. 

Yeah? Tell that to all the people who decided to vote for Trump in the last week of the election
59% in WI
54% in PA
50% in MI
I'll toss in 59% in FL for good measure.

-
You should read this when you have a little time:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

I read that when he first published it. 

As for late deciders, sure. They almost all broke from Clinton and Comey was certainly a big reason why. That there were so many late deciders is an indictment of Clinton and her campaign, but I personally don't believe everyone who claims to have only decided to vote for Trump in the last week. Trump is scum and was then, and most of America knew that. I personally think many of the 63 million who pulled the lever for him decided they were going to long before they admitted it to themselves or anyone else. And long before Comey's letter. No way to prove that, but I'm not willing to blindly accept as fact something a Trump voter tells me about their reasons for casting that vote. "Comey" is a lot easier to sell to your friends and family, to your kids, than racism and misogyny.   

Sounds like your issue is not with the polling or the forecasts, you just seem to disbelieve what people are saying to the exit polling people as they left their polling places. I don't know why they would lie in that instance. 

Clinton was a horrible candidate who didn't go to Wisconsin once. Of course it's an indictment on her campaign. But the bottom line is the vast majority of people who decided in the last week went to Trump and polling could not take that into account. And there was only one insanely huge political bombshell that dropped around that time that benefited Trump. So it's not hard to put two and two together here...

You don't know why someone would lie to a pollster about their reasons for voting for a candidate that was endorsed by David Duke and Breitbart? I can think of a few reasons. 

So you're issue is with those liars and not with polling and forecast models then. 

Two different issues. I don't believe everyone who tells us they were swung to Trump in that last week, nor do I believe Comey alone gets Silver off the hook for his misfire in 2016. If you want to come up with a scenario that gets Trump to 28.6 based on the numbers Silver predicted in the states, have at it. 

JimmyV said:

The Juggler said:

JimmyV said:

The Juggler said:

JimmyV said:

The Juggler said:

JimmyV said:

The Juggler said:

JimmyV said:

Jim Comey is a convenient boogieman, and maybe he did swing Florida and North Carolina to Trump, but there is no chance he alone is responsible for the discrepancies we saw in MI, Wi and PA. 

The passionate Nate Silver defenses are never not weird, and this exchange has been no exception. 

Yeah? Tell that to all the people who decided to vote for Trump in the last week of the election
59% in WI
54% in PA
50% in MI
I'll toss in 59% in FL for good measure.

-
You should read this when you have a little time:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

I read that when he first published it. 

As for late deciders, sure. They almost all broke from Clinton and Comey was certainly a big reason why. That there were so many late deciders is an indictment of Clinton and her campaign, but I personally don't believe everyone who claims to have only decided to vote for Trump in the last week. Trump is scum and was then, and most of America knew that. I personally think many of the 63 million who pulled the lever for him decided they were going to long before they admitted it to themselves or anyone else. And long before Comey's letter. No way to prove that, but I'm not willing to blindly accept as fact something a Trump voter tells me about their reasons for casting that vote. "Comey" is a lot easier to sell to your friends and family, to your kids, than racism and misogyny.   

Sounds like your issue is not with the polling or the forecasts, you just seem to disbelieve what people are saying to the exit polling people as they left their polling places. I don't know why they would lie in that instance. 

Clinton was a horrible candidate who didn't go to Wisconsin once. Of course it's an indictment on her campaign. But the bottom line is the vast majority of people who decided in the last week went to Trump and polling could not take that into account. And there was only one insanely huge political bombshell that dropped around that time that benefited Trump. So it's not hard to put two and two together here...

You don't know why someone would lie to a pollster about their reasons for voting for a candidate that was endorsed by David Duke and Breitbart? I can think of a few reasons. 

So you're issue is with those liars and not with polling and forecast models then. 

Two different issues. I don't believe everyone who tells us they were swung to Trump in that last week, nor do I believe Comey alone gets Silver off the hook for his misfire in 2016. If you want to come up with a scenario that gets Trump to 28.6 based on the numbers Silver predicted in the states, have at it. 

Silver was more accurate than anyone else. He even addressed the fact that Trump could win a few days prior to the election and got ripped for it:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/

Your issue is seems to be that you just think people are being dishonest in anonymous polling. That's something you can't blame people like Nate Silver for....

Again, I don't think the 28.6% Silver had on his front page can be backed up by the data from the individual states, and I don't give him as much credit as his defenders want me to for his being less wrong than someone else.