Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!

Gern Blansten

Biden

I have made it my mission (as ridiculous and fucked up as it may be) to comment "Yeah Trump has this one...we don't even need to vote" on every fucking pro-Trump tiktok video I see.

The Juggler

Biden

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

The Juggler said:

Here's some more Nate Silver for you since you love him so much

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

I've never seen anything convincing about voting irregularities in WI/PA/MI in 2016.  My first thought was that the fucking Russians hacked voting machines or something.  All they needed to do was move about 38K Clinton votes to tRump and the election ended up like it did.

The Comey effect made sense...and that is what Nate Silver hung his hat on.  The polls just didn't have time to react to that bullshit.

Yeah it’s really not that difficult and I don’t understand why people are so quick to discount it. There are decades of examples that show polling is generally accurate.  ‘16 was just weird for a number of reasons and then you toss in an enormous bombshell at the last minute combined with exit polling showing people deciding in the last week overwhelming went for Trump and....I mean it doesn’t take a rocket science to figure out what likely happened.

Gern Blansten

Biden

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

The Juggler said:

Here's some more Nate Silver for you since you love him so much

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

I've never seen anything convincing about voting irregularities in WI/PA/MI in 2016.  My first thought was that the fucking Russians hacked voting machines or something.  All they needed to do was move about 38K Clinton votes to tRump and the election ended up like it did.

The Comey effect made sense...and that is what Nate Silver hung his hat on.  The polls just didn't have time to react to that bullshit.

Yeah it’s really not that difficult and I don’t understand why people are so quick to discount it. There are decades of examples that show polling is generally accurate.  ‘16 was just weird for a number of reasons and then you toss in an enormous bombshell at the last minute combined with exit polling showing people deciding in the last week overwhelming went for Trump and....I mean it doesn’t take a rocket science to figure out what likely happened.

And then you have to sit back and imagine the likely "cost" of that Comey letter....how would things have been different with Hillary?  Would the virus response have been less harmful to the economy?  Hard to say for sure but I don't think it takes much intelligence to realize that we would be in better shape.

mickeyrat

Biden

98 days.

mrussel1

Biden

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

The Juggler said:

Here's some more Nate Silver for you since you love him so much

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

I've never seen anything convincing about voting irregularities in WI/PA/MI in 2016.  My first thought was that the fucking Russians hacked voting machines or something.  All they needed to do was move about 38K Clinton votes to tRump and the election ended up like it did.

The Comey effect made sense...and that is what Nate Silver hung his hat on.  The polls just didn't have time to react to that bullshit.

Yeah it’s really not that difficult and I don’t understand why people are so quick to discount it. There are decades of examples that show polling is generally accurate.  ‘16 was just weird for a number of reasons and then you toss in an enormous bombshell at the last minute combined with exit polling showing people deciding in the last week overwhelming went for Trump and....I mean it doesn’t take a rocket science to figure out what likely happened.

2018 is considered the most accurate polling year in record.  Evidently models were adjusted after 16. Let's hope those changes work in a presided year. 

mrussel1

Biden

Remember this dummy from 2012?  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/unskewed-pollster-dean-chambers-nate-silver-election-dick-morris-michael-barone-2012-11?amp

JimmyV

Biden

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

The Juggler said:

Here's some more Nate Silver for you since you love him so much

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

I've never seen anything convincing about voting irregularities in WI/PA/MI in 2016.  My first thought was that the fucking Russians hacked voting machines or something.  All they needed to do was move about 38K Clinton votes to tRump and the election ended up like it did.

The Comey effect made sense...and that is what Nate Silver hung his hat on.  The polls just didn't have time to react to that bullshit.

Yeah it’s really not that difficult and I don’t understand why people are so quick to discount it. There are decades of examples that show polling is generally accurate.  ‘16 was just weird for a number of reasons and then you toss in an enormous bombshell at the last minute combined with exit polling showing people deciding in the last week overwhelming went for Trump and....I mean it doesn’t take a rocket science to figure out what likely happened.

2018 is considered the most accurate polling year in record.  Evidently models were adjusted after 16. Let's hope those changes work in a presided year. 

Agreed.

Gern Blansten

Biden

I live in Red Meat, Indiana so it is hard to me to imagine places where Biden voters outnumber tRump voters.  Obama won Indiana in 2008 though....it's still odd to me that OH is leaning tRump.

static111

Biden

Ugh not thrilled with the “progressive” platform being released by the DNC, but still voting for Biden because we will never make this country a better place if we have four more years of trump.  Voting against M4A I understand politically, but against marijuana legalization.  Come on. That shit has been used to funnel bodies into the for profit prison system for years.  It is safer than alcohol etc you’ve heard all the arguments I’m sure. That would be a huge progressive win that would immediately help out thousands of people that either need pot medically or are in jail for low level marijuana offenses.  Can’t wait to see what else comes out.  Really hoping they don’t waffle on the cost of higher education and the devastation cause by student loans.

The Juggler

Biden

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

The Juggler said:

Here's some more Nate Silver for you since you love him so much

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

I've never seen anything convincing about voting irregularities in WI/PA/MI in 2016.  My first thought was that the fucking Russians hacked voting machines or something.  All they needed to do was move about 38K Clinton votes to tRump and the election ended up like it did.

The Comey effect made sense...and that is what Nate Silver hung his hat on.  The polls just didn't have time to react to that bullshit.

Yeah it’s really not that difficult and I don’t understand why people are so quick to discount it. There are decades of examples that show polling is generally accurate.  ‘16 was just weird for a number of reasons and then you toss in an enormous bombshell at the last minute combined with exit polling showing people deciding in the last week overwhelming went for Trump and....I mean it doesn’t take a rocket science to figure out what likely happened.

2018 is considered the most accurate polling year in record.  Evidently models were adjusted after 16. Let's hope those changes work in a presided year. 

Agreed. I would expect polling to be even more accurate this time around....but there will still be bombshells exploding all over the place in the next few months that will be difficult to account for.

mrussel1

Biden

static111 said:

Ugh not thrilled with the “progressive” platform being released by the DNC, but still voting for Biden because we will never make this country a better place if we have four more years of trump.  Voting against M4A I understand politically, but against marijuana legalization.  Come on. That shit has been used to funnel bodies into the for profit prison system for years.  It is safer than alcohol etc you’ve heard all the arguments I’m sure. That would be a huge progressive win that would immediately help out thousands of people that either need pot medically or are in jail for low level marijuana offenses.  Can’t wait to see what else comes out.  Really hoping they don’t waffle on the cost of higher education and the devastation cause by student loans.

I think putting weed on the platform is unnecessary. It will give the right wing a slight opening to criticize.  We don't need it in there to advance the cause.  I think it continues to move forward regardless 

static111

Biden

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

Ugh not thrilled with the “progressive” platform being released by the DNC, but still voting for Biden because we will never make this country a better place if we have four more years of trump.  Voting against M4A I understand politically, but against marijuana legalization.  Come on. That shit has been used to funnel bodies into the for profit prison system for years.  It is safer than alcohol etc you’ve heard all the arguments I’m sure. That would be a huge progressive win that would immediately help out thousands of people that either need pot medically or are in jail for low level marijuana offenses.  Can’t wait to see what else comes out.  Really hoping they don’t waffle on the cost of higher education and the devastation cause by student loans.

I think putting weed on the platform is unnecessary. It will give the right wing a slight opening to criticize.  We don't need it in there to advance the cause.  I think it continues to move forward regardless 

I see it as another move to appease the right rather than the progressive base. Throw us some kind of a bone. Most of us that are reasonable don’t expect our wishlist, and even some of the more extreme on the left will be ok with some form of symbolic gesture.  To continue this right wing pandering is going to lose the far left. Whether the DNC wants the far left or not, they need the votes.

mickeyrat

Biden

not being in the platform doesnt mean he wouldnt try to move on it.

static111

Biden

mickeyrat said:

not being in the platform doesnt mean he wouldnt try to move on it.

Yeah I totally understand that. My point is you can’t shame everyone in the far left to vote for you.  At some point make a symbolic overture. It’s gonna be a close election and you need all the votes you can get.  Maybe the campaign wizards see pandering to the right as a better way to get enough votes to defeat Trump, maybe they are right. Hopefully there is no risk of loss by completely alienating the far left which is millions of voters.

The Juggler

Biden

static111 said:

mickeyrat said:

not being in the platform doesnt mean he wouldnt try to move on it.

Yeah I totally understand that. My point is you can’t shame everyone in the far left to vote for you.  At some point make a symbolic overture. It’s gonna be a close election and you need all the votes you can get.  Maybe the campaign wizards see pandering to the right as a better way to get enough votes to defeat Trump, maybe they are right. Hopefully there is no risk of loss by completely alienating the far left which is millions of voters.

I realize people don't believe the polls but all polling right now suggests he's doing just fine with the left wingers.

jeffbr

Biden

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

Ugh not thrilled with the “progressive” platform being released by the DNC, but still voting for Biden because we will never make this country a better place if we have four more years of trump.  Voting against M4A I understand politically, but against marijuana legalization.  Come on. That shit has been used to funnel bodies into the for profit prison system for years.  It is safer than alcohol etc you’ve heard all the arguments I’m sure. That would be a huge progressive win that would immediately help out thousands of people that either need pot medically or are in jail for low level marijuana offenses.  Can’t wait to see what else comes out.  Really hoping they don’t waffle on the cost of higher education and the devastation cause by student loans.

I think putting weed on the platform is unnecessary. It will give the right wing a slight opening to criticize.  We don't need it in there to advance the cause.  I think it continues to move forward regardless 

It is a pretty safe issue, though. It has polled a steady ~66% of the country in favor for quite some time, and even a majority of Republicans now support legalization. Hell, my 82 year old conservative father doesn't smoke weed, but he is financially invested in the industry now. So if we're worried about alienating a minority of fundamentalist right-wingers, I say fuck 'em anyway. We don't need 100% buy-in. I just can't see how the legalization issue is an actual negative, and do see how it is a positive (as something progressives can get behind,  a differentiator for the Dems, and something the majority of the country wants). I think putting it on the platform would be a net positive.

mickeyrat

Biden

static111 said:

mickeyrat said:

not being in the platform doesnt mean he wouldnt try to move on it.

Yeah I totally understand that. My point is you can’t shame everyone in the far left to vote for you.  At some point make a symbolic overture. It’s gonna be a close election and you need all the votes you can get.  Maybe the campaign wizards see pandering to the right as a better way to get enough votes to defeat Trump, maybe they are right. Hopefully there is no risk of loss by completely alienating the far left which is millions of voters.

do you have polling that suggests where members of the party in general land vs the "far left". how that spectrum falls?

See,  registered I's are the plurality at somewhere in the mid 40s at this point. 43% at last count I have seen prior to fuckstick. They have surely grown with all the defections from the R's.

each party is somewhere in the 20's for each. Last I saw was R at 23% D at 25% or something like that of registered voters.

From my I seat, whoever is running better be asking ME for my vote and those like me. And they never seem to.......

static111

Biden

mickeyrat said:

static111 said:

mickeyrat said:

not being in the platform doesnt mean he wouldnt try to move on it.

Yeah I totally understand that. My point is you can’t shame everyone in the far left to vote for you.  At some point make a symbolic overture. It’s gonna be a close election and you need all the votes you can get.  Maybe the campaign wizards see pandering to the right as a better way to get enough votes to defeat Trump, maybe they are right. Hopefully there is no risk of loss by completely alienating the far left which is millions of voters.

do you have polling that suggests where members of the party in general land vs the "far left". how that spectrum falls?

See,  registered I's are the plurality at somewhere in the mid 40s at this point. 43% at last count I have seen prior to fuckstick. They have surely grown with all the defections from the R's.

each party is somewhere in the 20's for each. Last I saw was R at 23% D at 25% or something like that of registered voters.

From my I seat, whoever is running better be asking ME for my vote and those like me. And they never seem to.......

Nobody cares about us I’s!

static111

Biden

The Juggler said:

static111 said:

mickeyrat said:

not being in the platform doesnt mean he wouldnt try to move on it.

Yeah I totally understand that. My point is you can’t shame everyone in the far left to vote for you.  At some point make a symbolic overture. It’s gonna be a close election and you need all the votes you can get.  Maybe the campaign wizards see pandering to the right as a better way to get enough votes to defeat Trump, maybe they are right. Hopefully there is no risk of loss by completely alienating the far left which is millions of voters.

I realize people don't believe the polls but all polling right now suggests he's doing just fine with the left wingers.

Lol

Halifax2TheMax

How does Bernie’s former campaign spokeswoman claiming a vote for Sleepy Woke Joe is like eating a shit sandwich give dems any reason to reach out to “the far left,” particularly if the far left is mostly made up of unrepentant and lost Bernie supporters? I guess they prefer the shitshow, shiton, and shit holiday meals to a shit sandwich? Fuck them, they’re gone and ain’t ever going to support a dem candidate because they were never dems to begin with. Indies are where it’s at, not the “far left,” particularly that “far left.”