Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!
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Biden(moving my post and the quote here since it could derail the other topic, shame on me.
I don't know if anyone else saw the video on twitter of the couple wearing swastika masks to the supermarket and the woman saying that would be Joe Biden's America if he's elected. It was pointed out that we fought a war against the Nazis and they lost. I didn't want to bring the video here. How many Nazis are out there? Do they feel safe wearing that emblem? I mean, free speech is a right but I wouldn't go out and poke a hornet's nest just because I can. I'm not crazy as far as I know.mcgruff10 said:
I hope they realize the truth and put those masks in a hole in the ground with some dog poop.
Hey Nazis, get a nice sports team mask.
Post edited by Kat onFalling down,...not staying down0 -
BidenThe Juggler said:Nate Silver keeps teasing their forecast model. Looking forward to that coming out soon. I'm assuming it will give Trump better odds than most of the others as it did four years ago.We could have a pool......But I'm not sending anyone money.I'd say 62% chance Biden wins according to the first Silver model.1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley0 -
I'll guess 53%-47% Sleepy Woke Joe over Team Trump Treason.OnWis97 said:The Juggler said:Nate Silver keeps teasing their forecast model. Looking forward to that coming out soon. I'm assuming it will give Trump better odds than most of the others as it did four years ago.We could have a pool......But I'm not sending anyone money.I'd say 62% chance Biden wins according to the first Silver model.
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BidenThe overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%___________________________________________
"...I changed by not changing at all..."0 -
Biden
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurateJimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Falling down,...not staying down0
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Biden
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?Gern Blansten said:
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurateJimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.Post edited by JimmyV on___________________________________________
"...I changed by not changing at all..."0 -
Biden
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.JimmyV said:
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?Gern Blansten said:
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurateJimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Biden
Good god. This conversation again? LolGern Blansten said:
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.JimmyV said:
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?Gern Blansten said:
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurateJimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.
The. Polls. Were. Accurate. (They were in 18 also)They’ll be even more accurate this time around.www.myspace.com0 -
Biden
So again, these are not polls....these are the odds to win the election. As you can see 538 only gave HRC a 58% chance 100 days out. Seems pretty reasonable, no?JimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see
Post edited by The Juggler onwww.myspace.com0 -
BidenYeah at 100 days Hillary was favored by 1% or so. Biden is up by 8-10% I think.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Biden
I didn't say we should ignore the polls. I said the overall percentage will be largely meaningless and that the states themselves will tell the story. We don't have a national vote so pointing to a national polling average seems a bit like trying to predict who will win the World Series by calculating who will score the most runs over seven games. It might get you the right answer, but only if the losing team (Clinton) doesn't win game 1 (California) in a rout.Gern Blansten said:
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.JimmyV said:
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?Gern Blansten said:
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurateJimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.___________________________________________
"...I changed by not changing at all..."0 -
Biden
58% in November would have made more sense than 70%, yes, but you still wouldn't be able to back that up by his prediction in the individual states.The Juggler said:
So again, these are not polls....these are the odds to win the election. As you can see 538 only gave HRC a 58% chance 100 days out. Seems pretty reasonable, no?JimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see___________________________________________
"...I changed by not changing at all..."0 -
Biden
I agree....but without a Comey letter this year's state polls should be much more accurate.JimmyV said:
I didn't say we should ignore the polls. I said the overall percentage will be largely meaningless and that the states themselves will tell the story. We don't have a national vote so pointing to a national polling average seems a bit like trying to predict who will win the World Series by calculating who will score the most runs over seven games. It might get you the right answer, but only if the losing team (Clinton) doesn't win game 1 (California) in a rout.Gern Blansten said:
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.JimmyV said:
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?Gern Blansten said:
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurateJimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Biden
His lead in the swing states is close to the national lead. 7.6 in Mich. 6.7 in PA and and 7.1 in WI. Well over margin of error. The fact that the national lead is so large is a good indicator of what will happen on Election Day. In '16 HRC's lead was never close to as big. Her average rarely got over 45-45%, thus her state leads were also slimmer.JimmyV said:
I didn't say we should ignore the polls. I said the overall percentage will be largely meaningless and that the states themselves will tell the story. We don't have a national vote so pointing to a national polling average seems a bit like trying to predict who will win the World Series by calculating who will score the most runs over seven games. It might get you the right answer, but only if the losing team (Clinton) doesn't win game 1 (California) in a rout.Gern Blansten said:
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.JimmyV said:
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?Gern Blansten said:
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurateJimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.
This ain't 2016, folks.www.myspace.com0 -
Biden
No not really. I would say 70% was reasonable, especially considering only 70,000 people out of 130 MILLION essentially decided the election. And also Jim fucking Comey was extremely difficult to factor in so close to Election Day.JimmyV said:
58% in November would have made more sense than 70%, yes, but you still wouldn't be able to back that up by his prediction in the individual states.The Juggler said:
So again, these are not polls....these are the odds to win the election. As you can see 538 only gave HRC a 58% chance 100 days out. Seems pretty reasonable, no?JimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see
70% was a pretty good gauge, if you ask me.www.myspace.com0 -
Biden
58% is better than 70% based on what happened, not on what Silver predicted was going to happen. Trump's number should have been lower and Hillary's higher based on the numbers in WI, MI and PA. Trump had no path to 270 without at least one of those and he was at less than 28.6 in all three. Pointing to the national prediction allows us to ignore Silver was essentially predicting a close popular vote but an electoral college landslide for Clinton. I don't fault him for that and it's not that far off from what I thought was going to happen. But I was wrong, and so was he.The Juggler said:
No not really. I would say 70% was reasonable, especially considering only 70,000 people out of 130 MILLION essentially decided the election. And also Jim fucking Comey was extremely difficult to factor in so close to Election Day.JimmyV said:
58% in November would have made more sense than 70%, yes, but you still wouldn't be able to back that up by his prediction in the individual states.The Juggler said:
So again, these are not polls....these are the odds to win the election. As you can see 538 only gave HRC a 58% chance 100 days out. Seems pretty reasonable, no?JimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see
70% was a pretty good gauge, if you ask me.___________________________________________
"...I changed by not changing at all..."0 -
Biden
And today in the Phillies thread you said "Sixers and golf, folks."The Juggler said:
His lead in the swing states is close to the national lead. 7.6 in Mich. 6.7 in PA and and 7.1 in WI. Well over margin of error. The fact that the national lead is so large is a good indicator of what will happen on Election Day. In '16 HRC's lead was never close to as big. Her average rarely got over 45-45%, thus her state leads were also slimmer.JimmyV said:
I didn't say we should ignore the polls. I said the overall percentage will be largely meaningless and that the states themselves will tell the story. We don't have a national vote so pointing to a national polling average seems a bit like trying to predict who will win the World Series by calculating who will score the most runs over seven games. It might get you the right answer, but only if the losing team (Clinton) doesn't win game 1 (California) in a rout.Gern Blansten said:
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.JimmyV said:
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?Gern Blansten said:
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurateJimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.
This ain't 2016, folks.
You're turning into Biden!
2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
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BidenIt ain't 2016, and it ain't November yet, but it is still America.___________________________________________
"...I changed by not changing at all..."0 -
Biden
What part of Jim Comey don't you understand? The polling didn't have enough time to take his nonsense into account.JimmyV said:
58% is better than 70% based on what happened, not on what Silver predicted was going to happen. Trump's number should have been lower and Hillary's higher based on the numbers in WI, MI and PA. Trump had no path to 270 without at least one of those and he was at less than 28.6 in all three. Pointing to the national prediction allows us to ignore Silver was essentially predicting a close popular vote but an electoral college landslide for Clinton. I don't fault him for that and it's not that far off from what I thought was going to happen. But I was wrong, and so was he.The Juggler said:
No not really. I would say 70% was reasonable, especially considering only 70,000 people out of 130 MILLION essentially decided the election. And also Jim fucking Comey was extremely difficult to factor in so close to Election Day.JimmyV said:
58% in November would have made more sense than 70%, yes, but you still wouldn't be able to back that up by his prediction in the individual states.The Juggler said:
So again, these are not polls....these are the odds to win the election. As you can see 538 only gave HRC a 58% chance 100 days out. Seems pretty reasonable, no?JimmyV said:The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see
70% was a pretty good gauge, if you ask me.
58% or 70% is not 100%. It just meant HRC was the prohibitive favorite...which she was. Plenty of others had HRC as around a 90% lock on Election Day.
538 was more accurate than any other forecasting model.www.myspace.com0
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