The coronavirus

oftenreading said:

Jammin909 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.

Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud. 

Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation". 

Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.

Fatality rates are very likely no where close to 10% or even 4%; you are correct that this relates to how many people are tested, but also to other factors. However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic. 

Here is a good and not overly long article that provides more info.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ

oftenreading said:

Jammin909 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.

Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud. 

Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation". 

Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.

Fatality rates are very likely no where close to 10% or even 4%; you are correct that this relates to how many people are tested, but also to other factors. However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic. 

Here is a good and not overly long article that provides more info.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ

MayDay10 said:

oftenreading said:

Jammin909 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.

Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud. 

Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation". 

Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.

Fatality rates are very likely no where close to 10% or even 4%; you are correct that this relates to how many people are tested, but also to other factors. However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic. 

Here is a good and not overly long article that provides more info.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ

This cant be stated enough.

I said it a week or 2 ago, but I personally know 3-5 people who have/had this and all of them basically recovered/recovering at home.  Not tested, and not counted in the 'cases'.  

For the most part, a disproportionate number of the positive tests are people who are severe enough to go to the hospital (and even then, probably another level of severity/concern), so it is going to skew the statistics much toward scarier numbers.  In reality, we are probably closer to 1% or less.... which is awful, especially with how communicable this virus is.  

For people under 30, the mortality rate is miniscule.  Under 40, very small, 50 still small.  Rises over 60, more over 70.  Over 80, very bad (but not a certain death sentence).

We look at the media and sometimes this looks like a doomsday virus.  There are stories posted of people dying of all (adult) ages.  I do think this serves society well though because people DO need to wait this out awhile so (hopefully) we can get control of it and get testing and tracking online so we dont lose 20% of our baby boomers and lose a lot of others as hospitals wont be able to handle anything.

tempo_n_groove said:

g under p said:

josevolution said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351
You can’t convince me that this administration didn’t pressure navy’s brass to do this, we are living in a dictatorship it will only get worse! 

This is a continuation of the administration to make it be known that they will not  allow just about anyone to speak out about this administration or speak negatively about them. 

It's worse if one is in the military, it's all intimidating anyone in the administration to not even think of being a whistleblower. This certainly has a mob feel to how they are running/ruining our government.

Peace

I do recall a McCrystal being relieved by Obama after a RollingStone articles, so it's not just this admin...

tempo_n_groove said:

g under p said:

josevolution said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351
You can’t convince me that this administration didn’t pressure navy’s brass to do this, we are living in a dictatorship it will only get worse! 

This is a continuation of the administration to make it be known that they will not  allow just about anyone to speak out about this administration or speak negatively about them. 

It's worse if one is in the military, it's all intimidating anyone in the administration to not even think of being a whistleblower. This certainly has a mob feel to how they are running/ruining our government.

Peace

I do recall a McCrystal being relieved by Obama after a RollingStone articles, so it's not just this admin...

JW269453 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

5% death rate worldwide. Crazy. 

These numbers are from known cases that resulted in symptoms that alarmed the person enough to get tested. It is estimated that over 20% of those affected are asymptomatic and many that have symptoms are just told to ride it out without testing unless they become too ill. The latest estimate on the mortality rate is .66%, this would be roughly 6 to 7 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (.1%) if you were to contract it. Not good, but nowhere near a mortality rate of 5%. What makes this scarier is it seems to be transmitted much easier than the flu so many more will be infected and the number of deaths could be higher than 6 to 7 times that of the normal flu season. The virus trackers are great, but they also spread more fear because they don't account for those that weren't ill enough to get tested or asymptomatic. The number that needs to be focused on is .66%.

Ledbetterman10 said:

JW269453 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

5% death rate worldwide. Crazy. 

These numbers are from known cases that resulted in symptoms that alarmed the person enough to get tested. It is estimated that over 20% of those affected are asymptomatic and many that have symptoms are just told to ride it out without testing unless they become too ill. The latest estimate on the mortality rate is .66%, this would be roughly 6 to 7 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (.1%) if you were to contract it. Not good, but nowhere near a mortality rate of 5%. What makes this scarier is it seems to be transmitted much easier than the flu so many more will be infected and the number of deaths could be higher than 6 to 7 times that of the normal flu season. The virus trackers are great, but they also spread more fear because they don't account for those that weren't ill enough to get tested or asymptomatic. The number that needs to be focused on is .66%.

That’s all true but still, even 5% of only the known cases dying is still a lot. Especially considering many countries aren’t even at the peak of how many cases they’ll end up having. That might end up lowering the death-rate percentage, but it’ll still be a hell of a lot of people. 

And even if ya don’t die, having to go through the process seems like hell. Whether it be simply getting the test, which is painful as hell, or having to be hospitalized. You’ve seen the reports from overcrowded hospitals. It looks awful. I’ve been carefully observing the quarantine the best I can. The three most likely outcomes for someone like me if I contact the virus are being on the shelf for a few weeks (most likely, but not guarantee), being hospitalized, or death. So even if only one of those three scenarios contribute the mortality rate, I don’t want a part of any of them.  

oftenreading said:

Jammin909 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.

Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud. 

Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation". 

Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.

Fatality rates are very likely no where close to 10% or even 4%; you are correct that this relates to how many people are tested, but also to other factors. However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic. 

Here is a good and not overly long article that provides more info.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ

This cant be stated enough.

I said it a week or 2 ago, but I personally know 3-5 people who have/had this and all of them basically recovered/recovering at home.  Not tested, and not counted in the 'cases'.  

For the most part, a disproportionate number of the positive tests are people who are severe enough to go to the hospital (and even then, probably another level of severity/concern), so it is going to skew the statistics much toward scarier numbers.  In reality, we are probably closer to 1% or less.... which is awful, especially with how communicable this virus is.  

For people under 30, the mortality rate is miniscule.  Under 40, very small, 50 still small.  Rises over 60, more over 70.  Over 80, very bad (but not a certain death sentence).

We look at the media and sometimes this looks like a doomsday virus.  There are stories posted of people dying of all (adult) ages.  I do think this serves society well though because people DO need to wait this out awhile so (hopefully) we can get control of it and get testing and tracking online so we dont lose 20% of our baby boomers and lose a lot of others as hospitals wont be able to handle anything.

JW269453 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

JW269453 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

JW269453 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

5% death rate worldwide. Crazy. 

These numbers are from known cases that resulted in symptoms that alarmed the person enough to get tested. It is estimated that over 20% of those affected are asymptomatic and many that have symptoms are just told to ride it out without testing unless they become too ill. The latest estimate on the mortality rate is .66%, this would be roughly 6 to 7 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (.1%) if you were to contract it. Not good, but nowhere near a mortality rate of 5%. What makes this scarier is it seems to be transmitted much easier than the flu so many more will be infected and the number of deaths could be higher than 6 to 7 times that of the normal flu season. The virus trackers are great, but they also spread more fear because they don't account for those that weren't ill enough to get tested or asymptomatic. The number that needs to be focused on is .66%.

That’s all true but still, even 5% of only the known cases dying is still a lot. Especially considering many countries aren’t even at the peak of how many cases they’ll end up having. That might end up lowering the death-rate percentage, but it’ll still be a hell of a lot of people. 

And even if ya don’t die, having to go through the process seems like hell. Whether it be simply getting the test, which is painful as hell, or having to be hospitalized. You’ve seen the reports from overcrowded hospitals. It looks awful. I’ve been carefully observing the quarantine the best I can. The three most likely outcomes for someone like me if I contact the virus are being on the shelf for a few weeks (most likely, but not guarantee), being hospitalized, or death. So even if only one of those three scenarios contribute the mortality rate, I don’t want a part of any of them.  

I hear you, I'm just trying to let people see this in a different light to help ease concern if I can. I have at least 10 people in my family that I am much more concerned about given their age & health. Stay safe, hopefully this will be behind us soon.

Yeah shedding that different light on it is, for the most part, a good thing so people know that way more people will recover from the virus than will die from it. But on the other hand, I think that bit of info might have led to some people not observing the quarantine and social distancing recommendations. Take those spring-breakers in Florida for example. I bet many of them thought to themselves "Well I've had the flu before. It won't be that bad." Then they go home and infect their parents or siblings, who in turn infect their co-workers or classmates, and the spread continues. 

Definitely not saying to break quarantine or protocols to slow the spread. The new .66% estimate was within the last few days so it may be a good thing that the numbers looked more drastic causing less idiots running around.

fife said:

so trump is trying to force 3M to stop exporting N95 masks to canada and 3M is fighting back.  AMERICA FIRST RIGHT?