The coronavirus
Comments
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Two people at the elderly residence Väderkvarnen in Stockholm have been found infected by the corona virus.The people are kept in isolation and the staff taking care of them are equipped with homemade face visors.- We do not have the equipment we need, says Head of Unit Ann-Marie Henriksson."Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0
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pjl44 said:dignin said:pjl44 said:dignin said:mace1229 said:dignin said:mace1229 said:CM189191 said:Thoughts_Arrive said:Anyone else pissed off at China?
What does any of that have to do with Fox News?
Look at the beginning of this thread for proof of how long we have know this was a threat. It's really unbelievable how gullible people are.
Stop being so gullible.
Whybisnit gullible to not be happy with multiple parties? Why is it smarter to just only pick one and give everyone else a free pass? That to me seems more gullible, picking only one party and giving everyone else a free pass. China could have shared more information. China could have allowed health researchers. China could have started to contain it sooner. Why are we not allowed to be upset with how they handled it too?
I will continue to act on things within my control. Holding my leaders accountable being one of those things. If they fuck up I won't go looking somewhere else to blame just because they are on my team.
You picking up what I'm throwing down here?0 -
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An interesting brief article on the apparent differences in mortality rates between the different countries.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/analysis-steven-lewis-why-covid-deadly-benign-1.5500288An epidemiological mystery': Why Is COVID-19 so much deadlier in some countries than others?
What's the COVID-19 death rate? I'll get back to you
A patient in a biocontainment unit is carried on a stretcher at the Columbus Covid 2 Hospital in Rome, Monday, March 16, 2020. (Alessandra Tarantino/The Associated Press)Imagine you're a chief public health officer and you're asked the question on everyone's mind: how deadly is the COVID-19 outbreak?
With the number of cases worldwide approaching 200,000, and 1,000 or more cases in 15 countries, you'd think there would be an answer. But the more data we see, the tougher it is to come up with a hard number.
Overall, the death rate is around four per cent — of reported cases. That's also the death rate in China, which to date accounts for just under half the total number of global cases.
China is the only country where a) the outcome of almost all cases is known (85 per cent have recovered), and b) the spread has been stopped (numbers plateaued about a month ago).
A four per cent death rate is pretty high — about 40 times more deadly than seasonal flu — but no experts believe that is the death rate. The latest estimate is that it is around 1.5 per cent. Other models suggest that it may be somewhat lower.
The true rate can be known only if every case is known and confirmed by testing — including the asymptomatic or relatively benign cases, which comprise 80 per cent or more of the total — and all cases have run their course (people have either recovered or died). Aside from those in China, almost all cases identified are still active.Unless a jurisdiction systematically tests a large random sample of its population, we may never know the true rate of infection or the real death rate.
Yet for all this unavoidable uncertainty, it is still odd that the rates vary so widely by country.
Extreme differences
The new epicentre of the outbreak is in Europe, so let's focus there.
The graph below shows the crude (not adjusted for age) death rates in the ten countries with the most reported cases (all 1,000 or higher).
The COVID-19 death rate varies greatly in the 10 countries with the most reported cases. (Data from worldometers.info/Graph by Steven Lewis)Let's look at the European extremes: Italy and Germany. Italy has the most cases (28,000) but Germany has more than 7,000 and its number is growing rapidly. Yet Italy's death rate so far is 35 times higher than Germany's.
Moreover, only two of Germany's 7,200 active cases are classified as serious or critical, while in Italy it's 1,850 out of 21,000. In Canada there have been four deaths among 422 cases and only one of the 407 active cases is serious or critical.
What's going on here? No one has a ready answer.
The health care infrastructure in Italy and Germany is pretty much the same. Germany may be a week or two behind Italy in the pandemic, but in most countries the death rates seem higher at the beginning of the upsurge because the more serious cases are likely to present and be tested first.
Germany has promoted widespread testing, which is more likely to confirm non-serious cases and prevent them from coming into contact with more vulnerable groups, but so has Italy. And Italy took stronger measures to contain the virus than Germany.
Death rates are much higher in the elderly — as much as 15 per cent in the 80+ age group – and Italy has a relatively old population, but Germany has the oldest median age in Europe.
Does the German gene pool create some sort of uniquely effective immune response to just this novel coronavirus? Highly unlikely. Is the virus somehow different in Germany? Virtually impossible. Could German health care be that much more effective? Again, no.
Then what?At this point the discrepancies seem both massive and unexplained. If they converge in the next few weeks we will be closer to an explanation. It may be that Germany has thus far been lucky, with the exposures having occurred mainly among younger and healthier people. Or maybe Italy has been unlucky, with high rates of exposure in people with pre-existing health conditions that make them vulnerable.
If the perplexing differences remain after a few more weeks and tens of thousands — or millions — of new cases, we will have a barnburner of an epidemiological mystery on our hands.
The most revealing data over time will be the death rates in the oldest population groups, because the numbers are higher and the statistics will be more reliable. If these still vary hugely, a lot of analysts will be scratching a lot of heads.
Where is Canada headed? At this early stage, it looks more like Germany than Italy, but that can change quickly.
Germany may not look like Germany on April 1. With any luck, Italy may not look quite so dire by then. To channel Donald Rumsfeld, there are unknown unknowns. For now, we are stuck with a paradox on either side of the Alps.
What's the COVID-19 death rate? I'll get back to you.
my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf0 -
Rand Paul infected"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0
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Bentleyspop said:Post edited by pjl44 on0
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"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0 -
josevolution said:mace1229 said:Excusing China because you don’t like how our leadership handled this won’t help t change anything either. I’ve said for 4 or 5 years that China is a big problem for us. From the way they treat the environment to our debt and reliance on them. That needs to change. China hunting that they can control of US survives or not based on our reliance on them is very scary to me.Unfortunately not much will change from their end as long as we depend on them as heavily as we do. We are their trust fund babies, and if they decide to let us go we’d be screwed.
Ive also said before any green deal is completely pointless, actually will be harmful, until we are more self reliant. All that red tape does is just push more business to China where they don’t care about deals like that and in the end it’s worse for the environment.0 -
i'm personally not a fan of celebrating, or "karma-ing" people getting this virus whom i disagree with politically. i have friends on facebook from alberta cheering that trudeau's wife tested, and now people here celebrating that a republican got it.
i find this deplorable, no matter your political leanings.By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.0 -
Right now, the US has more active cases than China. Hopefully we will movie in their negative direction soon, in the next couple months. We need to ride this out, do our part, demand our leaders do theirs. The WaPo is offering free CoVid coverage if anyone wants to keep track. I only check once a day.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/?itid=hp_hp-banner-main_virus-resource-box-v3:homepage/story-ans
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HughFreakingDillon said:i'm personally not a fan of celebrating, or "karma-ing" people getting this virus whom i disagree with politically. i have friends on facebook from alberta cheering that trudeau's wife tested, and now people here celebrating that a republican got it.
i find this deplorable, no matter your political leanings.
"The heart and mind are the true lens of the camera." - Yusuf Karsh
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Why are we (USA) always putting the fires out instead of preventing them?
9/11 happens- who was ready for that? Not us. So we amp up the security and spend time and effort trying to prevent it from happening again but none of that is very helpful right now. I know we don’t have crystal balls but damn we should be better than this at what may come in the future.
And yes it’s difficult right now but Americans have faced adversity before.
Remember what’s important. Do the people you love know that you love them? Are you satisfied and at peace with how you’ve lived your life? Do you have someone to apologize to or that maybe you should apologize to? Be positive and thankful for what you do have cause many others have less or nothing. Stop feeling sorry for yourself and use that energy to do good.
Just how I feel and what helps every day when I ask myself these questions and reflect on my life. Mental meditation is necessary at these times. Be the bigger person for once and stop your arguments by saying your sorry. There are many positive things to find around you - just look. I’m thankful that I have clean water right now. You may think that’s stupid but a new form of cholera infected water would make you feel differently. Would we be ready for something like that right now?0 -
HughFreakingDillon said:i'm personally not a fan of celebrating, or "karma-ing" people getting this virus whom i disagree with politically. i have friends on facebook from alberta cheering that trudeau's wife tested, and now people here celebrating that a republican got it.
i find this deplorable, no matter your political leanings.I'll ride the wave where it takes me......0 -
HughFreakingDillon said:i'm personally not a fan of celebrating, or "karma-ing" people getting this virus whom i disagree with politically. i have friends on facebook from alberta cheering that trudeau's wife tested, and now people here celebrating that a republican got it.
i find this deplorable, no matter your political leanings.
I agree with not celebrating these things just because they happen to people on the other side of the political divide. I thought that the "karma" comment was more about how Paul voted specifically on the COVID bill, not his politics in general. But I could be wrong.my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf0 -
HughFreakingDillon said:i'm personally not a fan of celebrating, or "karma-ing" people getting this virus whom i disagree with politically. i have friends on facebook from alberta cheering that trudeau's wife tested, and now people here celebrating that a republican got it.
i find this deplorable, no matter your political leanings.0 -
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myoung321 said:HughFreakingDillon said:i'm personally not a fan of celebrating, or "karma-ing" people getting this virus whom i disagree with politically. i have friends on facebook from alberta cheering that trudeau's wife tested, and now people here celebrating that a republican got it.
i find this deplorable, no matter your political leanings.
Same here!
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
Loblaws and Metro, 2 Canadian grocery store chains are raising employees wages 2/hour during the pandemic. Hopefully the wages stay permanent...Give Peas A Chance…0
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HughFreakingDillon said:i'm personally not a fan of celebrating, or "karma-ing" people getting this virus whom i disagree with politically. i have friends on facebook from alberta cheering that trudeau's wife tested, and now people here celebrating that a republican got it.
i find this deplorable, no matter your political leanings.0 -
oftenreading said:An interesting brief article on the apparent differences in mortality rates between the different countries.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/analysis-steven-lewis-why-covid-deadly-benign-1.5500288An epidemiological mystery': Why Is COVID-19 so much deadlier in some countries than others?
What's the COVID-19 death rate? I'll get back to you
Steven Lewis · FOR CBC SK OPINION · Posted: Mar 17, 2020 11:24 AM CT | Last Updated: March 17A patient in a biocontainment unit is carried on a stretcher at the Columbus Covid 2 Hospital in Rome, Monday, March 16, 2020. (Alessandra Tarantino/The Associated Press)Imagine you're a chief public health officer and you're asked the question on everyone's mind: how deadly is the COVID-19 outbreak?
With the number of cases worldwide approaching 200,000, and 1,000 or more cases in 15 countries, you'd think there would be an answer. But the more data we see, the tougher it is to come up with a hard number.
Overall, the death rate is around four per cent — of reported cases. That's also the death rate in China, which to date accounts for just under half the total number of global cases.
China is the only country where a) the outcome of almost all cases is known (85 per cent have recovered), and b) the spread has been stopped (numbers plateaued about a month ago).
A four per cent death rate is pretty high — about 40 times more deadly than seasonal flu — but no experts believe that is the death rate. The latest estimate is that it is around 1.5 per cent. Other models suggest that it may be somewhat lower.
The true rate can be known only if every case is known and confirmed by testing — including the asymptomatic or relatively benign cases, which comprise 80 per cent or more of the total — and all cases have run their course (people have either recovered or died). Aside from those in China, almost all cases identified are still active.Unless a jurisdiction systematically tests a large random sample of its population, we may never know the true rate of infection or the real death rate.
Yet for all this unavoidable uncertainty, it is still odd that the rates vary so widely by country.
Extreme differences
The new epicentre of the outbreak is in Europe, so let's focus there.
The graph below shows the crude (not adjusted for age) death rates in the ten countries with the most reported cases (all 1,000 or higher).
The COVID-19 death rate varies greatly in the 10 countries with the most reported cases. (Data from worldometers.info/Graph by Steven Lewis)Let's look at the European extremes: Italy and Germany. Italy has the most cases (28,000) but Germany has more than 7,000 and its number is growing rapidly. Yet Italy's death rate so far is 35 times higher than Germany's.
Moreover, only two of Germany's 7,200 active cases are classified as serious or critical, while in Italy it's 1,850 out of 21,000. In Canada there have been four deaths among 422 cases and only one of the 407 active cases is serious or critical.
What's going on here? No one has a ready answer.
The health care infrastructure in Italy and Germany is pretty much the same. Germany may be a week or two behind Italy in the pandemic, but in most countries the death rates seem higher at the beginning of the upsurge because the more serious cases are likely to present and be tested first.
Germany has promoted widespread testing, which is more likely to confirm non-serious cases and prevent them from coming into contact with more vulnerable groups, but so has Italy. And Italy took stronger measures to contain the virus than Germany.
Death rates are much higher in the elderly — as much as 15 per cent in the 80+ age group – and Italy has a relatively old population, but Germany has the oldest median age in Europe.
Does the German gene pool create some sort of uniquely effective immune response to just this novel coronavirus? Highly unlikely. Is the virus somehow different in Germany? Virtually impossible. Could German health care be that much more effective? Again, no.
Then what?At this point the discrepancies seem both massive and unexplained. If they converge in the next few weeks we will be closer to an explanation. It may be that Germany has thus far been lucky, with the exposures having occurred mainly among younger and healthier people. Or maybe Italy has been unlucky, with high rates of exposure in people with pre-existing health conditions that make them vulnerable.
If the perplexing differences remain after a few more weeks and tens of thousands — or millions — of new cases, we will have a barnburner of an epidemiological mystery on our hands.
The most revealing data over time will be the death rates in the oldest population groups, because the numbers are higher and the statistics will be more reliable. If these still vary hugely, a lot of analysts will be scratching a lot of heads.
Where is Canada headed? At this early stage, it looks more like Germany than Italy, but that can change quickly.
Germany may not look like Germany on April 1. With any luck, Italy may not look quite so dire by then. To channel Donald Rumsfeld, there are unknown unknowns. For now, we are stuck with a paradox on either side of the Alps.
What's the COVID-19 death rate? I'll get back to you.
Canada coronavirus death toll jumps almost 50% to 19 in less than a day
https://calgaryherald.com/pmn/business-pmn/canada-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-almost-50-to-19-in-less-than-a-day/wcm/28e690f6-2121-4753-bd55-191a312e3fbf/
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