The Democratic Presidential Debates

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  • ecdanc
    ecdanc Posts: 1,814
    Lerxst1992 said:
    cincybearcat said:
    ecdanc said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The highly conservative village voice paints a stark timeline of NYC crime.


    record high homicides in 1990 which was cut by nearly 70% in 1998. Wonder what could have happened in between.

    https://www.villagevoice.com/2014/08/07/the-rise-and-fall-of-crime-in-new-york-city-a-timeline/
    “Listen, I’m against stop and frisk...but I also believe racist policing gets results.”
    You do a great job of using quotes 100% wrong. Do you know what a quote is? You can read about it.
    Did I say anything in that quote, or just provide statistics and say it’s a difficult balancing act? 

    More stats, acknowledging stats can be spun in any direction. But look at that cliff the murder rate took during Bloomberg’s tenure. Maybe taking a long look at that spike should get people to think. Probably not.






    .
    What are you talking about? There’s no sharp decline during Bloomberg’s terms. 
  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,650
    edited February 2020
    cincybearcat said:
    what dreams said:
    cincybearcat said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    So what do you guys think of Amy? Is the surge over? 
    I think it is. She had a poor debate and with her $ and lack of national recognition, she needed to perform amazingly. Her margin for error was the smallest of the bunch 
    I don't. I saw her first advertisement in Virginia this morning. She has raised 12 million since NH.  I sent her $25.00 this week myself. I plan to vote for her in the VA primary.
    I really think all the nay-saying about the field needs to stop. Candidates can run or drop out at their own discretion and should not be pressured just so Sanders or Biden can be our nominee. It's BS. Let the voters decide.
    EDIT:  So much parroting of the media that we all decry. That's all this is. If she gets through Super Tuesday and doesn't win anything significant, then so be it. We've had two states cast their votes that don't represent anything about America. I don't know why anyone trusts the polls after 2016. Seriously.  Can we get through Super Tuesday before we write people off?  
    Ummm just to be clear that was my own thought. If you heard it in the media then I guess they agree with me. But please don’t assume that all people do is listen and parrot back all the time.

    Im very concerned for her campaign after watching that debate. 
    https://youtu.be/iZwN0O9Xi08

    SHould be noted Petes ON THE BATTLEFIELD NO ONE CARED ABOUT,.. and Bernies HOW COME WE ARE THE ONLY CUONTRY could be supercut this way also.
    Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,764
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    brianlux said:
    cincybearcat said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    So what do you guys think of Amy? Is the surge over? 
    I think it is. She had a poor debate and with her $ and lack of national recognition, she needed to perform amazingly. Her margin for error was the smallest of the bunch 

    Looks that way to me too.  Sorry to see her lose steam. 

    I wonder when the herd will thin?
    Super Tuesday. This seems very ego-driven, and from the moderates like they are waiting out eachother. Instead of going into a backroom and being all "Look folks. We need to get together and have only one candidate out there to beat good-guy Sanders"

    Seen both Yang and someone else say that Bloombergs people are going out to big doners wanting them to stop contributing to the other moderates campaigns to starve them.

    So much freaking money in politics.  It's all about money money money MONEY!
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • oftenreading
    oftenreading Victoria, BC Posts: 12,856
    Crime rates have been going down for decades - before, during, and after Bloomberg's terms. Crime rates have been going down in the USA and in many other countries the world over. There simply isn't any evidence that they declined more sharply during his tenure in office or as a result of his discriminatory policies. The rates of violent crime in NYC fell significantly, but they also had further to fall as they were higher than most other big cities. There are several competing theories but I'm guessing that the winning one isn't one that applied to only one city for a relatively narrow window of the time that the decline has been occurring. 
    my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,650
    edited February 2020
    brianlux said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    brianlux said:
    cincybearcat said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    So what do you guys think of Amy? Is the surge over? 
    I think it is. She had a poor debate and with her $ and lack of national recognition, she needed to perform amazingly. Her margin for error was the smallest of the bunch 

    Looks that way to me too.  Sorry to see her lose steam. 

    I wonder when the herd will thin?
    Super Tuesday. This seems very ego-driven, and from the moderates like they are waiting out eachother. Instead of going into a backroom and being all "Look folks. We need to get together and have only one candidate out there to beat good-guy Sanders"

    Seen both Yang and someone else say that Bloombergs people are going out to big doners wanting them to stop contributing to the other moderates campaigns to starve them.

    So much freaking money in politics.  It's all about money money money MONEY!
    Weird seeing it compared to here. They never discuss donations or money during elections. Obviously we do not have a presidential race. But still. All these news segments on Treasure chests, and ad spending and donation levels etc. Odd to someone like me. 

    But happy Bernie got alot of money from alot of not-billionaires.
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • what dreams
    what dreams Posts: 1,761
    cincybearcat said:
    what dreams said:
    cincybearcat said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    So what do you guys think of Amy? Is the surge over? 
    I think it is. She had a poor debate and with her $ and lack of national recognition, she needed to perform amazingly. Her margin for error was the smallest of the bunch 
    I don't. I saw her first advertisement in Virginia this morning. She has raised 12 million since NH.  I sent her $25.00 this week myself. I plan to vote for her in the VA primary.
    I really think all the nay-saying about the field needs to stop. Candidates can run or drop out at their own discretion and should not be pressured just so Sanders or Biden can be our nominee. It's BS. Let the voters decide.
    EDIT:  So much parroting of the media that we all decry. That's all this is. If she gets through Super Tuesday and doesn't win anything significant, then so be it. We've had two states cast their votes that don't represent anything about America. I don't know why anyone trusts the polls after 2016. Seriously.  Can we get through Super Tuesday before we write people off?  
    Ummm just to be clear that was my own thought. If you heard it in the media then I guess they agree with me. But please don’t assume that all people do is listen and parrot back all the time.

    Im very concerned for her campaign after watching that debate. 
    She had one bad moment in the debate, and Elizabeth Warren came to her defense (rightly so). So she got angry at Pete B. Do we write off her debate performance because she dared speak back to a man who went after her? 
    Her entire debate wasn't a disaster. Her one bad moment was upstaged by Bloomberg's entire two hours of bad performance. Yet nobody is asking him to step out or writing him off. Money is the reason, and that is parroting the media, not matter how you call it. The media isn't calling for him to drop out because they stand to lose a large chunk of change if he does. I'm not playing that game in my assessment of events.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,357
    edited February 2020
    what dreams said:
    cincybearcat said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    So what do you guys think of Amy? Is the surge over? 
    I think it is. She had a poor debate and with her $ and lack of national recognition, she needed to perform amazingly. Her margin for error was the smallest of the bunch 
    I don't. I saw her first advertisement in Virginia this morning. She has raised 12 million since NH.  I sent her $25.00 this week myself. I plan to vote for her in the VA primary.
    I really think all the nay-saying about the field needs to stop. Candidates can run or drop out at their own discretion and should not be pressured just so Sanders or Biden can be our nominee. It's BS. Let the voters decide.

    The problem is four candidates are similar to Amy and two similar to Bernie. Even if far fewer vote “socialist” Bernie wants to change the rules so he wins based on that simple math.

     Compounding this, in NINE days,40% of the delegates will be decided. Let’s say based on current polling Bernie gets 28% between now and super tues. the others get between 25% and 10%

    In order for Bernie to win the nomination on the first ballot and avoid the super delegates, he would need to win about 65% of the remaining vote after super tues. Say the others would need between 68 and 75%. 

    None of that would happen. Bernie would scream that his 35% of non democrats deserve control of the party. That’s why it’s imperative for the moderates to “coalesce “ around a single candidate within nine days or we are heading to a bitterly divided party. And probably losing to trump, and losing more freedom in the process and seeing a return of preexisting conditions.
  • cincybearcat
    cincybearcat Posts: 16,959
    what dreams said:
    cincybearcat said:
    what dreams said:
    cincybearcat said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    So what do you guys think of Amy? Is the surge over? 
    I think it is. She had a poor debate and with her $ and lack of national recognition, she needed to perform amazingly. Her margin for error was the smallest of the bunch 
    I don't. I saw her first advertisement in Virginia this morning. She has raised 12 million since NH.  I sent her $25.00 this week myself. I plan to vote for her in the VA primary.
    I really think all the nay-saying about the field needs to stop. Candidates can run or drop out at their own discretion and should not be pressured just so Sanders or Biden can be our nominee. It's BS. Let the voters decide.
    EDIT:  So much parroting of the media that we all decry. That's all this is. If she gets through Super Tuesday and doesn't win anything significant, then so be it. We've had two states cast their votes that don't represent anything about America. I don't know why anyone trusts the polls after 2016. Seriously.  Can we get through Super Tuesday before we write people off?  
    Ummm just to be clear that was my own thought. If you heard it in the media then I guess they agree with me. But please don’t assume that all people do is listen and parrot back all the time.

    Im very concerned for her campaign after watching that debate. 
    She had one bad moment in the debate, and Elizabeth Warren came to her defense (rightly so). So she got angry at Pete B. Do we write off her debate performance because she dared speak back to a man who went after her? 
    Her entire debate wasn't a disaster. Her one bad moment was upstaged by Bloomberg's entire two hours of bad performance. Yet nobody is asking him to step out or writing him off. Money is the reason, and that is parroting the media, not matter how you call it. The media isn't calling for him to drop out because they stand to lose a large chunk of change if he does. I'm not playing that game in my assessment of events.
    So i disagree. Her debate was a disaster.

    So was Bloomberg’s and I don’t think he should be in either.

    But, when I’m giving my opinion here it’s based on what I believe reality to be. I believed she needed to be really good to make up for the $ issue. She wasn’t. I hope she performs better than I expect in Nevada and SC. And I hope she can stay in the race. But if I had to place a bet, I’d say she is out after Super Tuesday. Again, hope not.
    hippiemom = goodness
  • cincybearcat
    cincybearcat Posts: 16,959
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    brianlux said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    brianlux said:
    cincybearcat said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    So what do you guys think of Amy? Is the surge over? 
    I think it is. She had a poor debate and with her $ and lack of national recognition, she needed to perform amazingly. Her margin for error was the smallest of the bunch 

    Looks that way to me too.  Sorry to see her lose steam. 

    I wonder when the herd will thin?
    Super Tuesday. This seems very ego-driven, and from the moderates like they are waiting out eachother. Instead of going into a backroom and being all "Look folks. We need to get together and have only one candidate out there to beat good-guy Sanders"

    Seen both Yang and someone else say that Bloombergs people are going out to big doners wanting them to stop contributing to the other moderates campaigns to starve them.

    So much freaking money in politics.  It's all about money money money MONEY!
    Weird seeing it compared to here. They never discuss donations or money during elections. Obviously we do not have a presidential race. But still. All these news segments on Treasure chests, and ad spending and donation levels etc. Odd to someone like me. 

    But happy Bernie got alot of money from alot of not-billionaires.
    While not the only reason, but to reach the size and scope of voters in the US, it takes some $. If every voter was as engaged as they should be it could be a lot less for sure though.
    hippiemom = goodness
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,357
    oftenreading said:
    Crime rates have been going down for decades - before, during, and after Bloomberg's terms. Crime rates have been going down in the USA and in many other countries the world over. There simply isn't any evidence that they declined more sharply during his tenure in office or as a result of his discriminatory policies. The rates of violent crime in NYC fell significantly, but they also had further to fall as they were higher than most other big cities. There are several competing theories but I'm guessing that the winning one isn't one that applied to only one city for a relatively narrow window of the time that the decline has been occurring. 

    Not for the ultimate crime, murder. In fact the opposite of what you say is true. Do I need to repost that picture from above?
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,357
    ecdanc said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    cincybearcat said:
    ecdanc said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The highly conservative village voice paints a stark timeline of NYC crime.


    record high homicides in 1990 which was cut by nearly 70% in 1998. Wonder what could have happened in between.

    https://www.villagevoice.com/2014/08/07/the-rise-and-fall-of-crime-in-new-york-city-a-timeline/
    “Listen, I’m against stop and frisk...but I also believe racist policing gets results.”
    You do a great job of using quotes 100% wrong. Do you know what a quote is? You can read about it.
    Did I say anything in that quote, or just provide statistics and say it’s a difficult balancing act? 

    More stats, acknowledging stats can be spun in any direction. But look at that cliff the murder rate took during Bloomberg’s tenure. Maybe taking a long look at that spike should get people to think. Probably not.






    .
    What are you talking about? There’s no sharp decline during Bloomberg’s terms. 

    The decline began in 1996 when the policy began and continued to decline during MBs term. 
  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,650
    edited February 2020
    Lerxst1992 said:

    The problem is four candidates are similar to Amy and two similar to Bernie. Even if far fewer vote “socialist” Bernie wants to change the rules so he wins based on that simple math.
    From what I've seen, many vote based on personality, the candidate and other factors. So the whole "the moderate block" is bigger isn't completely failsafe.

    E.g. Saw somewhere that Warrens lost voters went to Buttagieg more than Bernie. And many Biden voters having Bernie as their second choice etc.

    I would also guess many Amy voters and many Liz voters would go to eachother, based on them being women.
    Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,357
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    Lerxst1992 said:

    The problem is four candidates are similar to Amy and two similar to Bernie. Even if far fewer vote “socialist” Bernie wants to change the rules so he wins based on that simple math.
    From what I've seen, many vote based on personality, the candidate and other factors. So the whole "the moderate block" is bigger isn't completely failsafe.

    E.g. Saw somewhere that Warrens lost voters went to Buttagieg more than Bernie. And many Biden voters having Bernie as their second choice etc.

    I would also guess many Amy voters and many Liz voters would go to eachother, based on them being women.

    There’s no way to prove a linear progression. From my discussions with other voters, m4a is a fairly divisive policy. I find it unlikely someone who wants to force the economy thru a radical shift would be unwilling to cross that ideological line and vice versa.
  • what dreams
    what dreams Posts: 1,761
    Lerxst1992 said:
    what dreams said:
    cincybearcat said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    So what do you guys think of Amy? Is the surge over? 
    I think it is. She had a poor debate and with her $ and lack of national recognition, she needed to perform amazingly. Her margin for error was the smallest of the bunch 
    I don't. I saw her first advertisement in Virginia this morning. She has raised 12 million since NH.  I sent her $25.00 this week myself. I plan to vote for her in the VA primary.
    I really think all the nay-saying about the field needs to stop. Candidates can run or drop out at their own discretion and should not be pressured just so Sanders or Biden can be our nominee. It's BS. Let the voters decide.

    The problem is four candidates are similar to Amy and two similar to Bernie. Even if far fewer vote “socialist” Bernie wants to change the rules so he wins based on that simple math.

     Compounding this, in NINE days,40% of the delegates will be decided. Let’s say based on current polling Bernie gets 28% between now and super tues. the others get between 25% and 10%

    In order for Bernie to win the nomination on the first ballot and avoid the super delegates, he would need to win about 65% of the remaining vote after super tues. Say the others would need between 68 and 75%. 

    None of that would happen. Bernie would scream that his 35% of non democrats deserve control of the party. That’s why it’s imperative for the moderates to “coalesce “ around a single candidate within nine days or we are heading to a bitterly divided party. And probably losing to trump, and losing more freedom in the process and seeing a return of preexisting conditions.
    I'm just not that afraid of the process. I don't know how you get people to coalesce, other than the candidates themselves to get out there and make their case to the people. Back room deal? No thank you. If news emerges that a back room deal occurs between now and Super Tuesday, I won't even vote in the primary, much less the general. People wonder what the Russians are doing to our election system, yet here we are calling for our own voters to give up their right to express an opinion at the ballot box. Just because of fear. Fear is a horrible motivator. It never leads to good things. Democrats need to chill out and let things ride to their conclusion. 
  • hedonist
    hedonist Posts: 24,524
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    Lerxst1992 said:

    The problem is four candidates are similar to Amy and two similar to Bernie. Even if far fewer vote “socialist” Bernie wants to change the rules so he wins based on that simple math.
    From what I've seen, many vote based on personality, the candidate and other factors. So the whole "the moderate block" is bigger isn't completely failsafe.

    E.g. Saw somewhere that Warrens lost voters went to Buttagieg more than Bernie. And many Biden voters having Bernie as their second choice etc.

    I would also guess many Amy voters and many Liz voters would go to eachother, based on them being women.
    What? Because women wouldn’t be capable of choosing their candidate regardless of gender?

    Sorry, but you lost me with that. 
  • ecdanc
    ecdanc Posts: 1,814
    Lerxst1992 said:
    ecdanc said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    cincybearcat said:
    ecdanc said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The highly conservative village voice paints a stark timeline of NYC crime.


    record high homicides in 1990 which was cut by nearly 70% in 1998. Wonder what could have happened in between.

    https://www.villagevoice.com/2014/08/07/the-rise-and-fall-of-crime-in-new-york-city-a-timeline/
    “Listen, I’m against stop and frisk...but I also believe racist policing gets results.”
    You do a great job of using quotes 100% wrong. Do you know what a quote is? You can read about it.
    Did I say anything in that quote, or just provide statistics and say it’s a difficult balancing act? 

    More stats, acknowledging stats can be spun in any direction. But look at that cliff the murder rate took during Bloomberg’s tenure. Maybe taking a long look at that spike should get people to think. Probably not.






    .
    What are you talking about? There’s no sharp decline during Bloomberg’s terms. 

    The decline began in 1996 when the policy began and continued to decline during MBs term. 
    Dude. Your own post shows the decline beginning in 1991. The bulk of the decrease occurred before 1996. 
  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,650
    hedonist said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    Lerxst1992 said:

    The problem is four candidates are similar to Amy and two similar to Bernie. Even if far fewer vote “socialist” Bernie wants to change the rules so he wins based on that simple math.
    From what I've seen, many vote based on personality, the candidate and other factors. So the whole "the moderate block" is bigger isn't completely failsafe.

    E.g. Saw somewhere that Warrens lost voters went to Buttagieg more than Bernie. And many Biden voters having Bernie as their second choice etc.

    I would also guess many Amy voters and many Liz voters would go to eachother, based on them being women.
    What? Because women wouldn’t be capable of choosing their candidate regardless of gender?
    When did I say that?
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,650
    edited February 2020
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    Lerxst1992 said:

    The problem is four candidates are similar to Amy and two similar to Bernie. Even if far fewer vote “socialist” Bernie wants to change the rules so he wins based on that simple math.
    From what I've seen, many vote based on personality, the candidate and other factors. So the whole "the moderate block" is bigger isn't completely failsafe.

    E.g. Saw somewhere that Warrens lost voters went to Buttagieg more than Bernie. And many Biden voters having Bernie as their second choice etc.

    I would also guess many Amy voters and many Liz voters would go to eachother, based on them being women.

    There’s no way to prove a linear progression. From my discussions with other voters, m4a is a fairly divisive policy. I find it unlikely someone who wants to force the economy thru a radical shift would be unwilling to cross that ideological line and vice versa.
    I just stated what I've seen written/said. 

    E.g.:

    Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) is atop the field of Democratic presidential candidates in most polls, but a new survey finds that many of his supporters would be willing to back his top rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

    A Hill-HarrisX poll released Wednesday found that 27 percent of registered voters who support Biden said Sanders was their second pick to become the Democratic nominee.


    Everyone I talk to here would vote for Bernie/Warren and think the rest are weirdly right-wing out of a Twilght Zone Episode that no one in their right mind would vote for. Make of that anecdotal evidence, what you see fit.
    Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • oftenreading
    oftenreading Victoria, BC Posts: 12,856
    Lerxst1992 said:
    oftenreading said:
    Crime rates have been going down for decades - before, during, and after Bloomberg's terms. Crime rates have been going down in the USA and in many other countries the world over. There simply isn't any evidence that they declined more sharply during his tenure in office or as a result of his discriminatory policies. The rates of violent crime in NYC fell significantly, but they also had further to fall as they were higher than most other big cities. There are several competing theories but I'm guessing that the winning one isn't one that applied to only one city for a relatively narrow window of the time that the decline has been occurring. 

    Not for the ultimate crime, murder. In fact the opposite of what you say is true. Do I need to repost that picture from above?
    You're not making any sense here. In what way is "the opposite of what (I) say is true"? It's true that homicide rates across the USA have fallen sharply since 1990, to a low in 2014; this isn't specific to NYC. Your own chart shows that murder rates in NYC dropped from the 1990 right through to 2018, clearly continuing to drop despite changes in leadership and policing policies.  I just don't see that it demonstrates what you seem to think it demonstrates. 
    my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,764
    Someone here (gimme?) mentioned "brokered convention" a while back.  If this goes to a brokered convention, what do you all think the outcome would be?
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

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