North American Tour Odds

kaw753 · January 2020

kerbjack said:

JimmyV said:

Man, southern Cal locals are the lucky ones for this tour. Three shows with 99% odds?

Shhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!! I'm not local but I have flight and hotels booked. Let's not jinx it.

Fly to PHX, night in Vegas, San Diego, LA x 2, road trip up to the Bay Area. Sounds like a decent week off of work.

gotthebottle · January 2020

Lostpawn said:

front spacer said:

oo712 said:

So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?

No, the % is based upon every person's entry for that show regardless of what priority they gave it.

I still find it very hard to believe. It makes the percentages meaningless, and they are using exact numbers. It would imply that for every selection that is at 99, I would get in even if it was my 10th priority. It also skews numbers down significantly for popular selections. I don’t get why they would do that.

I think they count the people who put in Best Available in the GA % odds....that's why the 99% are still high out west?

Vedd Hedd · January 2020

Lostpawn said:

front spacer said:

oo712 said:

So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?

No, the % is based upon every person's entry for that show regardless of what priority they gave it.

I still find it very hard to believe. It makes the percentages meaningless, and they are using exact numbers. It would imply that for every selection that is at 99, I would get in even if it was my 10th priority. It also skews numbers down significantly for popular selections. I don’t get why they would do that.

I think what they are saying is..."If you want to go to the XYZ show, and you put any entry into it, you have roughly a 20% chance of getting a ticket".

You're right that if you choose it as your first priority, you have a better shot than if you choose it as your 2nd, 3rd, etc.

Poncier · January 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

Poncier said:

Lerxst1992 said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

A lot of confusing replies to this. I believe they are picking round by round. If you put NY GA as your first round pick (let's say those odds drop to 5%) there is a 95% chance you are not getting US tickets east of the mississippi.

"During the drawing, we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain, the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority"

If you really could see any show, picking NY first runs the risk of eliminating any chance at GA for every show.

Where did you find that quoted language?

It sorta looks like an older page but it says 2020 at top and "updated monday 13:05"

https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing?mobile_site=true

That's definitely old info from a 10C run lottery.
Ticketmaster is running this one.

It does say 2020-

"Pre-sale Drawing
Tickets
Monday at 13:05
Pearl Jam 2020 North America Tour"

I'd think if they were changing such a significant part of the draw, they'd state just that.

Yes the header is current but the balance of info is archived. There was a similar discussion a little while ago about Fenway when someone posted the 2018 Fenway show info and it had the 2020 concert series header...just a glitch in the Matrix, read the rest of the article, says you'll be charged by Ten Club etc.
This year you will be charged by Ticketmaster.

IlliniGuy76 · January 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

Mozzy said:

Odds updating now (8:10am PST)

Baltimore: 16/74
MSG: 11/66
Nashville: 28/99
StL: 25/99
OKC: 77/99
DEN: 27/99
PHX: 44/99
SD: 42/99
LA1: 35/99
LA2: 32/99
OAK1: 37/99
OAK2: 47/99

So overnight changes in odds:

Baltimore: 19 to 16 / 85 to 74
MSG: 13 to 11 / 74 to 66
Nashville: 28 to 24 / 99
STL: 28 to 25 / 99
OKC: 92 to 77 / 99
Denver: 32 to 27 /99
PHX: 51 to 44 / 99
SD: 49 to 42 / 99
LA1: 37 to 35 / 99
LA2: 39 to 32 / 99
OAK1: 43 to 37 / 99
OAK2: 55 to 47 /99

Bump

All this confirms is this:
- If you want to get in the door for most any of the PJ shows on this first leg, choose "best available" and you're very likely to be able to attend
- If you for sure want to stand in GA, you're going to need some amount of luck in the lotto
- MSG - we all pray

jmug23 · January 2020

Lostpawn said:

front spacer said:

oo712 said:

So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?

No, the % is based upon every person's entry for that show regardless of what priority they gave it.

I still find it very hard to believe. It makes the percentages meaningless, and they are using exact numbers. It would imply that for every selection that is at 99, I would get in even if it was my 10th priority. It also skews numbers down significantly for popular selections. I don’t get why they would do that.

That’s exactly how it worked last lottery. People were getting their 10th choices for some of the reserve shows that never fell below 99%. Odds are better than they show. Maybe not by much but they Definitley take into account all choices for that show, not just priority 1.

PG256613 · January 2020

anyone know the current odds for the canadian shows?

FW46778 · January 2020

There is no priority for this one run by Ticketmaster

CopperTom · January 2020

1st priorities are drawn first. If tickets remain, second priorities are picked. And so on. This isn't changing. The 10C has been very transparent on the mechanics of the lottery.

IlliniGuy76 · January 2020

PG256613 said:

anyone know the current odds for the canadian shows?

All you have to do - as outlined a few times here - is go back into the link and look at the show odds.

mace1229 · January 2020

travelgirl said:

I can only do Saturday show as my Pearl Jam trip this leg. Given that Baltimore has now gone under 75% for seated, I'm thinking of doing St-Louis instead. Has anyone been to St-Louis for a show ?

I'll let you know in April.
But really, anything above 50% odds (and honestly, probably far lower) is basically a guarantee for first pick. Because that includes everyone who put it as second, third, etc. If you want seated Baltimore, I'd just stick with that. It looks like its a shoe-in at this point unless everyone is just waiting until this evening to enter.

Lostpawn · January 2020

jmug23 said:

Lostpawn said:

front spacer said:

oo712 said:

So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?

No, the % is based upon every person's entry for that show regardless of what priority they gave it.

I still find it very hard to believe. It makes the percentages meaningless, and they are using exact numbers. It would imply that for every selection that is at 99, I would get in even if it was my 10th priority. It also skews numbers down significantly for popular selections. I don’t get why they would do that.

That’s exactly how it worked last lottery. People were getting their 10th choices for some of the reserve shows that never fell below 99%. Odds are better than they show. Maybe not by much but they Definitley take into account all choices for that show, not just priority 1.

Thanks, friend. I’m gonna get off the soapbox here. Nothing I can do about it anyway! Good luck with your shows, all of you.

mace1229 · January 2020

Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
I understand it like this....
if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.

IlliniGuy76 · January 2020

mace1229 said:

Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
I understand it like this....
if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.

MSG is my first pick - St. Louis is my second. I have "better than average" odds to get MSG and I should very much get St Louis as well.

Vedd Hedd · January 2020

travelgirl said:

I can only do Saturday show as my Pearl Jam trip this leg. Given that Baltimore has now gone under 75% for seated, I'm thinking of doing St-Louis instead. Has anyone been to St-Louis for a show ?

I would not let 75% bother you much. If you put that in as your 1st priority, I think you should be ok. I won't tell anyone how to pick shows, but I would not be worried if my first pick said 50%.

If someone picks Baltimore as their 6th pick, that will bring the odds down, but if you have it as your first pick you would get priority over them.

snipes824 · January 2020

This might have been asked and answered already, but submitting for both GA and reserved for a show doesn’t decrease your odds on the second one, right? That seems implied, but I don’t see it explicitly stated anywhere unless I’m missing it.

MD190661 · January 2020

mace1229 said:

Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
I understand it like this....
if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.

This is how I understand it.

I've been debating the 2 Oakland shows. I put show 1 as my first choice and show 2 as 2nd. I really want the pit for 1 night, so am thinking of switching as night 2 has better odds. But, I am also thinking that most people probably put night 1 as their first choice which basically puts me in the same boat as everyone. And if I switch, then I am basically guaranteeing that I get some of the worst seats for the first -Saturday-show. Any thoughts on this rambling post?

Jamiechris2005 · January 2020

I entered drawing but not listed under my tickets. Anyone else having this issue? I am getting an email confirming request received though.

jdizzle8291 · January 2020

Jamiechris2005 said:

I entered drawing but not listed under my tickets. Anyone else having this issue? I am getting an email confirming request received though.

That page on your account is for previous lotteries run by 10C. The current TM lottery will not show up there. If you received the confirmation email, you are all set.

tdawe · January 2020

MD190661 said:

mace1229 said:

Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
I understand it like this....
if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.

This is how I understand it.

I've been debating the 2 Oakland shows. I put show 1 as my first choice and show 2 as 2nd. I really want the pit for 1 night, so am thinking of switching as night 2 has better odds. But, I am also thinking that most people probably put night 1 as their first choice which basically puts me in the same boat as everyone. And if I switch, then I am basically guaranteeing that I get some of the worst seats for the first -Saturday-show. Any thoughts on this rambling post?

If your priority is to be in GA for one show (and it doesn't matter which one), then I would rank the show with better GA odds first.

North American Tour Odds

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