North American Tour Odds

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  • NoloadNoload Monticello, Georgia Posts: 1,634
    PeterED said:
    For lower member numbers the reserved seating option is the way to go as far as I see it , GA is for folks who wanna line up and wait ..
    Any idea what is considered a lower number in 2020?
    650,000
    Had a friend that just joined Friday and got 705xxx.
    www.twitter.com/robert_harbin
  • NoloadNoload Monticello, Georgia Posts: 1,634
    Noload said:
    PeterED said:
    For lower member numbers the reserved seating option is the way to go as far as I see it , GA is for folks who wanna line up and wait ..
    Any idea what is considered a lower number in 2020?
    650,000
    Had a friend that just joined Friday and got 705xxx.
    I would consider sub 200k lower at this point
    www.twitter.com/robert_harbin
  • MickeyMouseMickeyMouse Posts: 1,055
    For lower member numbers the reserved seating option is the way to go as far as I see it , GA is for folks who wanna line up and wait ..
    I personally love GA for any concert so I can hang in the middle back, just behind everyone and have enough space to enjoy the show, move/jump around and not be elbow-to-elbow with people like if I’m in seats. 
    Uniondale, NY 04/30/03 - Camden, NJ 07/05/03 - MSG 07/08/03 - Reading, PA 10/01/04 - Philly 10/03/05 - Ed Sullivan Theatre 05/04/06 - MSG 06/25/08 - MSG 05/21/10 - NYC (EV solo) 06/21/11 - Montreal 09/07/11 - Brooklyn 10/18/13 - Central Park 09/26/15 - Philly 04/29/16 - MSG 05/01/16 - MSG 05/02/16 - Fenway 08/05/16 - Fenway 09/02/18 - Fenway 09/04/18 
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,913
    Mozzy said:
    Mozzy said:
    Odds updating now (8:10am PST)

    Baltimore: 16/74
    MSG: 11/66
    Nashville: 28/99
    StL: 25/99
    OKC: 77/99
    DEN: 27/99
    PHX: 44/99
    SD: 42/99
    LA1: 35/99
    LA2: 32/99
    OAK1: 37/99
    OAK2: 47/99
    So overnight changes in odds: 

    Baltimore: 19 to 16 / 85 to 74
    MSG: 13 to 11 / 74 to 66
    Nashville: 28 to 24 / 99
    STL: 28 to 25 / 99
    OKC: 92 to 77 / 99
    Denver: 32 to 27 /99
    PHX: 51 to 44 / 99
    SD: 49 to 42 / 99
    LA1: 37 to 35 / 99
    LA2: 39 to 32 / 99
    OAK1: 43 to 37 / 99
    OAK2: 55 to 47 /99

    Bump

    Bump. Awaiting the evening update 
  • jcmitchell28jcmitchell28 Fort Worth Posts: 217
    My thinking for wanting a seat but putting in Best Available is that my main goal is to be in the building. I would rather have two shots at that then putting in Reserved Seating and not getting anything. That happened to me for the Copenhagen show and I had to scramble for gen pop tickets. 
  • jethrojam420jethrojam420 Foxborough MA Posts: 1,075

    8/29/00*5/2/03*7/2/03*7/3/03*7/11/03*9/28/04*5/24/06*6/28/08*5/15/10*5/17/10* 10/16/13*10/25/13* 4/28/16*4/28/16*8/5/16*8/7/16 EV 6/15/11 Brad 10/27/02
  • mattsavardmattsavard Posts: 518
    edited January 2020
    Hoping for GA at Both Ottawa and Quebec City. Both are at 99% for Reserved so getting tickets is not a risk. It's all about GA. 

    Currently have: 
    1) Ottawa 64% of GA
    2) Quebec City 88% of GA

    My thoughts are this gives me the best odds of GA with a slim shot of Zero GA. 
    Or do I switch priority and all but guarantee GA at one show, but run slim odds of getting both. 

    What's everyone else thinking? What time (EST) are the odds updating? 
    Memphis '94 / Charlotte '96 / Birmingham '98 / Knoxville '98 / Memphis '00 / Nashville '00 / Nashville '03 / St. Louis '04 / Nashville Ryman N1 '09 (EV solo) / Nashville Ryman N2 '09 (EV solo) / Memphis '09 (EV solo) / New Orleans Jazzfest '10 / St Louis '10 / Memphis '12 (EV solo) / Memphis '14 / Boston Fenway N1 '16 / Boston Fenway N2 '16 / Chicago Wrigley N1 '18 / Chicago Wrigley N2 '18 /  Ottawa '22 / Quebec City '22 / Nashville '22 / St Louis '22

    Strong 2nd Amendment supporter and advocate targeted methods of reducing gun violence, sans-infringement. 
  • SaravaSarava Naperville, IL Posts: 2,043
    Really is amazing that with hours left, only 2 shows in the North America tour are less than 99% for reserved. I love how Pearl Jam is looking out for their fans like this.
  • mcgruff10mcgruff10 New Jersey Posts: 28,746
    Sarava said:
    Really is amazing that with hours left, only 2 shows in the North America tour are less than 99% for reserved. I love how Pearl Jam is looking out for their fans like this.
    Agreed.  This is awesome.  
    I'll ride the wave where it takes me......
  • drandodrando Posts: 73
    I put in for Best Available for NYC,  just for this reason.  I knew it would drop.  The Nashville show I stuck with reserved.
  • BentleyspopBentleyspop Craft Beer Brewery, Colorado Posts: 11,042
    Maybe I'm missing something but how come every time PJ has toured since 2013 people don't get that reserved seating locations are determined by seniority.
    They come here and post myths, untruths, conspiracy theories, and lies and even when it is explained there are people who don't  get it.

    Good luck everyone 
  • MickeyMouseMickeyMouse Posts: 1,055
    My thinking for wanting a seat but putting in Best Available is that my main goal is to be in the building. I would rather have two shots at that then putting in Reserved Seating and not getting anything. That happened to me for the Copenhagen show and I had to scramble for gen pop tickets. 
    What am I missing here? It’s not like reserved is gonna full up before GA. If all you want is reserved, put reserved. 
    Uniondale, NY 04/30/03 - Camden, NJ 07/05/03 - MSG 07/08/03 - Reading, PA 10/01/04 - Philly 10/03/05 - Ed Sullivan Theatre 05/04/06 - MSG 06/25/08 - MSG 05/21/10 - NYC (EV solo) 06/21/11 - Montreal 09/07/11 - Brooklyn 10/18/13 - Central Park 09/26/15 - Philly 04/29/16 - MSG 05/01/16 - MSG 05/02/16 - Fenway 08/05/16 - Fenway 09/02/18 - Fenway 09/04/18 
  • MozzyMozzy Posts: 154
    edited January 2020
    nevermind
  • lfitzpatrick9lfitzpatrick9 NJ Posts: 393
    Sarava said:
    Really is amazing that with hours left, only 2 shows in the North America tour are less than 99% for reserved. I love how Pearl Jam is looking out for their fans like this.
    I mean a lot can change in 6 hours but yeah it does seem to look like TC has acquired way more tickets this time around especially since in 2016 the MSG reserved odds were like 17% .  Anything over 50% for one MSG show is a success in my mind.  Obviously it will stink for those who dont in but hey at least PJ is trying their best to obtain a shit load of tickets for everyone.  It isnt their fault everyone wants to get in the solo NYC show.
  • ajflickerajflicker Canada Posts: 166

  • ajflickerajflicker Canada Posts: 166
    Those odds were at 8:30pm EST
  • mcgruff10mcgruff10 New Jersey Posts: 28,746
    Quick question, are reserved seating locations determined by seniority?  Thanks.  
    I'll ride the wave where it takes me......
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,913
    mcgruff10 said:
    Sarava said:
    Really is amazing that with hours left, only 2 shows in the North America tour are less than 99% for reserved. I love how Pearl Jam is looking out for their fans like this.
    Agreed.  This is awesome.  


    Hopefully the odds are correct. As Vedd Hedd pointed out, how are they counting best available? It seems they are definitely included in the GA odds. So do the best availables that don’t win GA get reclassified to reserved once the GA is full? 

    Also the odds so far are from this morning 
  • ajflicker said:
    Those odds were at 8:30pm EST
    Same as the morning update, so I don't believe they've updated yet
  • jdizzle8291jdizzle8291 Erie, PA Posts: 456
    mcgruff10 said:
    Quick question, are reserved seating locations determined by seniority?  Thanks.  
    The higher your member number, the better your seat!
    2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II
    2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
    2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
  • drandodrando Posts: 73
    mcgruff10 said:
    Quick question, are reserved seating locations determined by seniority?  Thanks.  
    LOL.  I like it.
  • mcgruff10 said:
    Quick question, are reserved seating locations determined by seniority?  Thanks.  
    mcgruff10 said:
    Quick question, are reserved seating locations determined by seniority?  Thanks.  
    I see what you did there McGruff....and we aren't going to bite at your obvious attempt to bait us into telling you that "yes, it is determined by seniority" before waxing on about how stunned we are that the previous 50 or 60 times that info has been relayed on this post were overlooked by the poster.....not going to do it.  Wait...I think I just did....damnit McGruff you just took a "bite out of time"
  • ajflickerajflicker Canada Posts: 166
    mcgruff10 said:
    Quick question, are reserved seating locations determined by seniority?  Thanks.  
    Yes by seniority.
  • Has anyone tried to go in after submitting their picks and re-arranging or adding to their choices? Is that still possible? 
  • Sorry...thought that was a priori knowledge....the poster asked :
    So, the very last GA seat was given out, and you didnt get GA. 

    Who goes next?   Best Available? or Reserved Only?  Or are we pooled together?
    My response was to that specific question.  So...after GA is all dried up, Best Available and Reserved Only are pooled together and seniority comes into play....

    From what I understand, Let's assume 2k GA and 5k Reserved: 

    They take everyone who picked GA or Best Available as 1st Choice... put them in a digital hat and start pulling names.
    IF There are GA left when those names are gone, they will add people who had it 2nd choice and keep pulling until they have all 2K GA tickets spoken for. 

    THEN: Once all the GA is gone. They put the remaining "best available" names into a digital hat with the Folks who had Reserved only, and begin pulling names from the digital hat for 1st Choice, then 2nd Choice etc.... until all 5k Reserved are gone. 

    Then they take the 5k Reserved seats and dole them out based on Membership seniority. 

    I think. :) 
    Memphis '94 / Charlotte '96 / Birmingham '98 / Knoxville '98 / Memphis '00 / Nashville '00 / Nashville '03 / St. Louis '04 / Nashville Ryman N1 '09 (EV solo) / Nashville Ryman N2 '09 (EV solo) / Memphis '09 (EV solo) / New Orleans Jazzfest '10 / St Louis '10 / Memphis '12 (EV solo) / Memphis '14 / Boston Fenway N1 '16 / Boston Fenway N2 '16 / Chicago Wrigley N1 '18 / Chicago Wrigley N2 '18 /  Ottawa '22 / Quebec City '22 / Nashville '22 / St Louis '22

    Strong 2nd Amendment supporter and advocate targeted methods of reducing gun violence, sans-infringement. 
  • jdizzle8291jdizzle8291 Erie, PA Posts: 456
    Kathy8282 said:
    Has anyone tried to go in after submitting their picks and re-arranging or adding to their choices? Is that still possible? 
    No, you have to go in and do a new request. It will supersede your previous request so only the latest request will be honored. 
    2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II
    2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
    2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
  • jcmitchell28jcmitchell28 Fort Worth Posts: 217
    My thinking for wanting a seat but putting in Best Available is that my main goal is to be in the building. I would rather have two shots at that then putting in Reserved Seating and not getting anything. That happened to me for the Copenhagen show and I had to scramble for gen pop tickets. 
    What am I missing here? It’s not like reserved is gonna full up before GA. If all you want is reserved, put reserved. 
    What I’m saying is I’ve done that very thing a few times and ended up not getting any tickets. The latest occurrence was for the upcoming Copenhagen show for this year. 
  • gotthebottlegotthebottle San Diego Posts: 2,968
    Hoping for GA at Both Ottawa and Quebec City. Both are at 99% for Reserved so getting tickets is not a risk. It's all about GA. 

    Currently have: 
    1) Ottawa 64% of GA
    2) Quebec City 88% of GA

    My thoughts are this gives me the best odds of GA with a slim shot of Zero GA. 
    Or do I switch priority and all but guarantee GA at one show, but run slim odds of getting both. 

    What's everyone else thinking? What time (EST) are the odds updating? 
    That's exactly what I did in 2016...got QC only. Eventually traded my extra QC for an Ottawa GA
  • Evel KEvel K Posts: 546
    smak said:
    It seems to me that if a show is at 50% GA, it includes people that put best available.  Which means the people who put best available, that don't get GA, will flow into the reserved section, maybe meaning the reserve % is a bit too high.

    I think you're right about the best available flowing into the reserved when GA is gone but I don't think that will affect the 99% odds. The 50% that don't get GA get reserved. They still have enough reserved seats for all the entries. Example 100 pairs of GA and 500 pairs of reserved. When 200 people go for Best Available, 50% will get them and the other 100 get reserved. 400 more people still have the 99% odds for reserved. Just my theory to add to the mix. Not actual numbers for total tickets available.
    Things were different then
  • chitownp76chitownp76 Posts: 1,469
    Does anyone have final odds from home/away shows in 2018.
    2014: Moline, IL
    2015: EV Solo (Metro Chicago)
    2016: Philadelphia PA 1, Philadelphia PA 2, New York City NY- MSG 1, EV Solo (Metro Chicago), Boston MA Fenway 1, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2
    2017: EV Ohana Fest (Dana Point, CA), EV/Pete Townshend Quadrophenia Rosemont, IL
    2018: Seattle WA 1, Seattle WA 2, Missoula MT, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2, Boston MA Fenway 1, Boston MA Fenway 2
    2019: EV Tempe, AZ
    2020: PPD
    2022: EV & Earthlings Chicago 1 & 2, Phoenix AZ, Camden NJ, Nashville TN, St. Louis MO
    2023: EV Tempe, AZ, St Paul, MN 2, Chicago 1 & 2
    2024: Noblesville, IN, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2
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