North American Tour Odds

front spacer · January 2020

ritg19 said:

Is this right? 'GA only' requests are filled before 'best available' requests? So they fill all of "GA only" requests, and then give remaining GA tickets, if available, to the "best available" folks...

No.

Lostpawn · January 2020

Vedd Hedd said:

Lostpawn said:

Vedd Hedd said:

I know there are people who put MSG as like...their 6th choice as a "What the hell, i probably wont get it, but lets give it a shot"...for GA. That is messing with the odds.

Which is why odds should be for 1st priority only. Otherwise they are largely meaningless.

Yeah, it would be good to know your 1st priority is safe.

That said...you can KINDA figure out a bit...if the odds are like...11%, if you put that in as your 5th choice, its probably not going to happen.

Yeah, it’s just weird that they would give these exact percentages (e.g. 37%) when those numbers aren’t even close to true.

tdawe · January 2020

Mozzy said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

A lot of confusing replies to this. I believe they are picking round by round. If you put NY GA as your first round pick (let's say those odds drop to 5%) there is a 95% chance you are not getting US tickets east of the mississippi.

"During the drawing, we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain, the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority"

If you really could see any show, picking NY first runs the risk of eliminating any chance at GA for every show.

Where did you find that quoted language?

It sorta looks like an older page but it says 2020 at top and "updated monday 13:05"

https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing?mobile_site=true

Fascinating. Thank you. Even if it doesn't apply to this tour, it does explain why so many people stress about the rankings, etc. It never occurred to me they'd do it that way until I saw posts here. Definitely makes me reconsider my own rankings.

Yeah, seems like a crummy/less fair way to run it because it reduces people chances of getting multiple shows and particularly if you live in NYC or other difficult to get shows. And would make it seem nearly impossible to get more than one show of GA tix. If you rank any of the GA options that are less than 50% below 1st choice (say MSG), you have a very limited chance of getting anything lower on your list because it'll be your 2nd or 3rd choice and all the GA tix will have gone to people who ranked it 1st choice. Now you've missed out on your 1st choice of MSG and it's virtually impossible to get anything below 1st choice for GA seats. That's a bummer, but with the reserved seats so high, I guess it's less painful. Seems like going round-by-round makes much more sense and is more fair, overall.

Only if you're looking at trying to do multiple high-demand shows. If you want to follow them for a few stops in Europe or lower-tier US cities it makes a lot more sense.

jefft · January 2020

BV84003 said:

Poncier said:

Lerxst1992 said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

A lot of confusing replies to this. I believe they are picking round by round. If you put NY GA as your first round pick (let's say those odds drop to 5%) there is a 95% chance you are not getting US tickets east of the mississippi.

"During the drawing, we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain, the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority"

If you really could see any show, picking NY first runs the risk of eliminating any chance at GA for every show.

Where did you find that quoted language?

It sorta looks like an older page but it says 2020 at top and "updated monday 13:05"

https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing?mobile_site=true

That's definitely old info from a 10C run lottery.
Ticketmaster is running this one.

Old info or not, the email from TM/10c/whomever for this tour specifically states that logic and rules will be the same for this as they have always been for previous ten club lotteries, so it's still valid.

Your Request Summary

Please note: odds reflect the odds at the time of your request. These odds will change over time until the Ticket Request period has closed. Ten Club and Ticketmaster are working closely to ensure the fan club ticket request process remains the same as in years past; these odds follow the same logic and rules that have always governed Ten Club ticketing.

gotthebottle · January 2020

If a GA is your first choice your odds are actually higher for your first choice show....

Saltzy23 · January 2020

I'm just wondering what the Verified Presale is gonna realistically be like for those that don't hit the MSG lotto.

I have always landed seats for those things when I won that lotto in the past.

The general sale is going to be 100% pointless and the fan-to-fan marketplace for that show is gonna be a joke.

IF anyone posts their seats they will sell in .0003 seconds.

UseUrIllusions · January 2020

Lostpawn said:

Vedd Hedd said:

I know there are people who put MSG as like...their 6th choice as a "What the hell, i probably wont get it, but lets give it a shot"...for GA. That is messing with the odds.

Which is why odds should be for 1st priority only. Otherwise they are largely meaningless.

Well, we could try to roughly figure them out via a poll, but that would be rough at best (As everyone who entered would have to participate).

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

Poncier said:

Lerxst1992 said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

A lot of confusing replies to this. I believe they are picking round by round. If you put NY GA as your first round pick (let's say those odds drop to 5%) there is a 95% chance you are not getting US tickets east of the mississippi.

"During the drawing, we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain, the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority"

If you really could see any show, picking NY first runs the risk of eliminating any chance at GA for every show.

Where did you find that quoted language?

It sorta looks like an older page but it says 2020 at top and "updated monday 13:05"

https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing?mobile_site=true

That's definitely old info from a 10C run lottery.
Ticketmaster is running this one.

It does say 2020-

"Pre-sale Drawing

Tickets
Monday at 13:05

Pearl Jam 2020 North America Tour"

I'd think if they were changing such a significant part of the draw, they'd state just that.

ComeToTX · January 2020

what time does it end? i forget.

CantKeepmedown · January 2020

I did have the 2nd NY show in 2016 as my 1st priority (reserved) and won. The odds were 19% . So there is hope!!

front spacer · January 2020

oo712 said:

So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?

No, the % is based upon every person's entry for that show regardless of what priority they gave it.

front spacer · January 2020

ComeToTX said:

what time does it end? i forget.

Just before midnight tonight, Pacific Time.

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

jefft said:

Lerxst1992 said:

From what I've read over the years what you put in priority 1 has always been the most important factor.

The way this leg shaped up its rough reading so many say "hey im from Antarctica maybe I'll throw in a chance for MSG "

If fans want a decent chance to see this band and dont live anywhere near MSG, that should be the last show they consider for this lottery. Especially GA. Especially this tour with so few shows in the east.

Why would you put them last if you want to travel?

There are very few shows here. If you're not from the east, seems to me fans can have a once in a lifetime escape from the cold Cali / AZ vacation with many PJ shows.

Or take freezing cold MSG with very low odds and seats likely much worse than every other show.

IlliniGuy76 · January 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

From what I've read over the years what you put in priority 1 has always been the most important factor.

The way this leg shaped up its rough reading so many say "hey im from Antarctica maybe I'll throw in a chance for MSG "

If fans want a decent chance to see this band and dont live anywhere near MSG, that should be the last show they consider for this lottery. Especially GA. Especially this tour with so few shows in the east.

All a matter of preference, but I agree. If you want to see ANY show - choose pretty much any of the other shows outside of MSG. If seeing PJ at MSG has been a dream show, good luck!

100 Pacer · January 2020

ComeToTX said:

what time does it end? i forget.

14 hours and 40 minutes.

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

Saltzy23 said:

I'm just wondering what the Verified Presale is gonna realistically be like for those that don't hit the MSG lotto.

I have always landed seats for those things when I won that lotto in the past.

The general sale is going to be 100% pointless and the fan-to-fan marketplace for that show is gonna be a joke.

IF anyone posts their seats they will sell in .0003 seconds.

Definitely for the 2 east shows

"We're sorry but a higher skilled more nimble fan has already snatched these juicy tickets"

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

Mozzy said:

Mozzy said:

Odds updating now (8:10am PST)

Baltimore: 16/74
MSG: 11/66
Nashville: 28/99
StL: 25/99
OKC: 77/99
DEN: 27/99
PHX: 44/99
SD: 42/99
LA1: 35/99
LA2: 32/99
OAK1: 37/99
OAK2: 47/99

So overnight changes in odds:

Baltimore: 19 to 16 / 85 to 74
MSG: 13 to 11 / 74 to 66
Nashville: 28 to 24 / 99
STL: 28 to 25 / 99
OKC: 92 to 77 / 99
Denver: 32 to 27 /99
PHX: 51 to 44 / 99
SD: 49 to 42 / 99
LA1: 37 to 35 / 99
LA2: 39 to 32 / 99
OAK1: 43 to 37 / 99
OAK2: 55 to 47 /99

Bump

Lostpawn · January 2020

front spacer said:

oo712 said:

So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?

No, the % is based upon every person's entry for that show regardless of what priority they gave it.

I still find it very hard to believe. It makes the percentages meaningless, and they are using exact numbers. It would imply that for every selection that is at 99, I would get in even if it was my 10th priority. It also skews numbers down significantly for popular selections. I don’t get why they would do that.

Edit: I’m sorry I’m beating a dead horse, I’ll stop. I have a logical mind and decent knowledge of statistical mathematics, and this kind of inaccuracy (in the math, not you guys!) bothers me. I’ll quit. 😀

jjflash · January 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

Mozzy said:

Odds updating now (8:10am PST)

Baltimore: 16/74
MSG: 11/66
Nashville: 28/99
StL: 25/99
OKC: 77/99
DEN: 27/99
PHX: 44/99
SD: 42/99
LA1: 35/99
LA2: 32/99
OAK1: 37/99
OAK2: 47/99

So overnight changes in odds:

Baltimore: 19 to 16 / 85 to 74
MSG: 13 to 11 / 74 to 66
Nashville: 28 to 24 / 99
STL: 28 to 25 / 99
OKC: 92 to 77 / 99
Denver: 32 to 27 /99
PHX: 51 to 44 / 99
SD: 49 to 42 / 99
LA1: 37 to 35 / 99
LA2: 39 to 32 / 99
OAK1: 43 to 37 / 99
OAK2: 55 to 47 /99

Bump

Good info, thank you @Mozzy

PJNB · January 2020

Lostpawn said:

front spacer said:

oo712 said:

So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?

No, the % is based upon every person's entry for that show regardless of what priority they gave it.

I still find it very hard to believe. It makes the percentages meaningless, and they are using exact numbers. It would imply that for every selection that is at 99, I would get in even if it was my 10th priority. It also skews numbers down significantly for popular selections. I don’t get why they would do that.

It is just a guide on how popular a show is nothing else. You are right with what you are saying about the 99%.

North American Tour Odds

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