***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Thread***

The Fixer

keith law analysis...


The Philadelphia Phillies made two notable trades early Tuesday afternoon, sending Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Ethan Martin and Josh Lindblom, and Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants for Tommy Joseph, Nate Schierholtz and Seth Rosin.



Victorino helps the Dodgers primarily because of who he's replacing, as LA's left fielders have hit a whopping .259/.329/.348 this season, while the replacements for Andre Ethier when he was on the DL were even worse. But Victorino isn't the player he was a year or two ago, as his bat speed has started to slow and his range in center has begun to slip. He could be worth an extra win to the Dodgers given how little they've gotten from left field this year.

The return for the Phillies is surprisingly good, given his down year and impending free agency. Martin is an upside play, a 2008 first-round pick who has bounced back from two disappointing years where his command and velocity weren't where they were expected to be. The right-hander is 93-97 again and flashes a plus curveball, which could be a very strong combo in a relief role; to start, he'll need to improve his fringy changeup and throw a lot more strikes, although his 12 percent walk rate this year is actually the best of his career and the 23-year-old is striking out almost a man per inning at Double-A Chattanooga. He's a good athlete who had some potential as a third baseman with power in high school.



Lindblom has an above-average fastball but no out pitch; his best weapon is an 82-85 mph slider that isn't really sharp enough to consistently get under hitters' bats, and he should probably junk his slow curveball entirely. He could end up a capable middle reliever but his value is primarily in his low cost.



Pence is a marginal upgrade for the Giants over Gregor Blanco, adding more offense but at some cost on defense; AT&T Park also isn't the ideal spot for a hitter like Pence, whose power is above-average but not the kind of huge power that will play even in a large stadium. He'll earn somewhere around $13-14 million in 2013 through arbitration. What boggles the mind is why the Giants allowed Carlos Beltran, a better if more injury-prone player who they gave up a top prospect for a year ago, to walk away last offseason only to have to trade for a replacement midyear. Did they not realize how lacking their offense would be?



Joseph is an offensive catcher with arm strength whose receiving, while improved from his high school days, still needs work and could still lead to him moving off the position or ending up a backup. Joseph has above-average raw power right now with average bat speed but good rotation to with his strong upper body; his plate discipline is adequate, and his performance this year partly reflects his youth relative to his competition. (He has a .705 OPS for Double-A Richmond and turned 21 a few weeks ago.) If his receiving continues to improve, he could end up a valuable everyday catcher because of his bat, but right now it's probably worse than even money that he can do so.



Schierholtz is a platoon outfielder who's capable in either corner and can hit right-handers well enough to be part of a solution with the proper platoon partner. Rosin is a big, right-handed strike-thrower who has seen his velocity spike this summer after he returned to the rotation for high Class A San Jose. His fastball is bumping 95 mph and could end up a back-end starter if that holds. It's a very good return for Pence, not close to what the Phillies gave up last summer, but excellent considering Pence's potential cost next year.



Trading two outfielders, even with one coming back, has to open a spot in Philly for the team to give Domonic Brown another chance in the big leagues, although his performance in Triple-A this year has been disappointing. He still has the physical ability to be at least an above-average regular, but frequent mechanical issues with his swing -- along with the team's tinkering -- and poor instincts in the field have held him back. The Phils are in a rare situation for them where they can guarantee him at-bats through the end of the season without having to worry about the standings, which is the right thing to do for him and for the team.

Johnny Abruzzo

Blanton could easily be traded in August - he'd definitely clear waivers. Not worried about him being traded today. Except that he's been pitching well so it'd be better to unload him before he starts sucking again.

jamminpearls

The CSN Pence interview is up now. You can see it in his face he was shocked.

The Fixer

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

Blanton could easily be traded in August - he'd definitely clear waivers. Not worried about him being traded today. Except that he's been pitching well so it'd be better to unload him before he starts sucking again.

I don't know about that. Someone like texas could need another arm (esp since they were dumb enough to count on oswalt's washed up scrub ass). Then you have to factor in other teams putting in claims to block their competition from improving...could be more of this stuff with the 2 WCs.

I think pierre and polanco would easily clear waivers, but I'm hoping they move blanton today

Johnny Abruzzo

The Fixer wrote:

(esp since they were dumb enough to count on oswalt's washed up scrub ass)

The Fixer

so, labor day was announced?

sounds like PJ on Sunday and Springsteen on Monday for this guy

Jearlpam0925

The Fixer wrote:

so, labor day was announced?

sounds like PJ on Sunday and Springsteen on Monday for this guy

Same here. And Cornell's playing Sunday too. Hopefully the Temple reunion lasts only one song...

The Fixer

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

so, labor day was announced?

sounds like PJ on Sunday and Springsteen on Monday for this guy

Same here. And Cornell's playing Sunday too. Hopefully the Temple reunion lasts only one song...

oh christ, ya gotta be kidding me

just checked stubhub for sunday tix...only $55 :thumbup:

This is shaping up to one of those low expectation concerts where I get blackout drunk because I don't really care about the show. Especially since I'm not expecting to be able to see the stage.

are those vip seats still out there anywhere?

Jearlpam0925

The Fixer wrote:

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

so, labor day was announced?

sounds like PJ on Sunday and Springsteen on Monday for this guy

Same here. And Cornell's playing Sunday too. Hopefully the Temple reunion lasts only one song...

oh christ, ya gotta be kidding me

just checked stubhub for sunday tix...only $55 :thumbup:

This is shaping up to one of those low expectation concerts where I get blackout drunk because I don't really care about the show. Especially since I'm not expecting to be able to see the stage.

are those vip seats still out there anywhere?

Yeah, they're still there. But you should be able to see the stage. I plan on making this the only show - other than Lolla - where I go early, drink overpriced beers and park my ass as close to the stage as possible. I'll sit through Drake if I have to. Well, that actually might be crazy talk. As long as I'm fringe of the grass close to the railing to the seats in Camden-close then I'm good.

Johnny Abruzzo

I see the talk moved on from the trades already.

I found some quotes from the "acquiring Pence" trade last year. We are all idiots. I threw in the last one just for fun.

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

I can live with this. Not bad.

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

I can live with this. Not bad.

That's what I was thinking.

jamminpearls wrote:

Amazing deal,keeping Brown and Worley and only giving up 2 top prospects.

The Fixer wrote:

even I can't complain about this
is it being greedy and unreasonable if I still want them to trade for a couple of bullpen arms?
what a fucking day. time for a beer. wish I had a cigar

The Fixer wrote:

My head is about to explode. I go shopping for baby furniture and shit explodes. My phone was going crazy while we were looking at cribs. I couldn't stop texting. My wife took my phone from me like I was 10 years old

jamminpearls

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

I see the talk moved on from the trades already.

I found some quotes from the "acquiring Pence" trade last year. We are all idiots. I threw in the last one just for fun.

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

I can live with this. Not bad.

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

I can live with this. Not bad.

That's what I was thinking.

jamminpearls wrote:

Amazing deal,keeping Brown and Worley and only giving up 2 top prospects.

The Fixer wrote:

even I can't complain about this
is it being greedy and unreasonable if I still want them to trade for a couple of bullpen arms?
what a fucking day. time for a beer. wish I had a cigar

The Fixer wrote:

My head is about to explode. I go shopping for baby furniture and shit explodes. My phone was going crazy while we were looking at cribs. I couldn't stop texting. My wife took my phone from me like I was 10 years old

What a difference a year makes.

Gary Carter

:corn:

eeriepadave

eeriepadave wrote:

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

Medical records for Blanton sent to Baltimore. So it looks like that's happening...

Who else is moving? Shane? Hunter? We all know Cliff is staying

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCQ7VLoY7bQ :P

Jearlpam0925

We're not out of this yet....

jamminpearls

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

We're not out of this yet....

World Series or bust!!!! :corn:

Jearlpam0925

....jokes. These are jokes.

The Fixer

only one AB, but brown's swing looked a lot shorter and more compact tonight than it was last year. hopefully it stays that way

I was happy with the pence trade because they didn't have to give up brown, may, or colvin...all prospects whose respective stocks have nosedived. And the fact that they had him under team control for 2.5 years after acquiring him. I also had no idea that pence was so overrated.

Hopefully they can still move pierre, blanton, and polanco.

Also, am I the only one hoping the nats take a complete shit during these last two months? I don't like that team. Harper and Davey Johnson both really bother me with all their talking. Rizzo too. I hope atlanta passes them and they miss playoffs

eeriepadave

The Fixer wrote:

only one AB, but brown's swing looked a lot shorter and more compact tonight than it was last year. hopefully it stays that way

Anyone see his catch from an Iron Pigs game a few days ago? It was pretty awesome! I think it was like #2 on ESPN's top 10 plays of the day

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gicDqZlGYfw

Jearlpam0925

The Fixer wrote:

only one AB, but brown's swing looked a lot shorter and more compact tonight than it was last year. hopefully it stays that way

I was happy with the pence trade because they didn't have to give up brown, may, or colvin...all prospects whose respective stocks have nosedived. And the fact that they had him under team control for 2.5 years after acquiring him. I also had no idea that pence was so overrated.

Hopefully they can still move pierre, blanton, and polanco.

Also, am I the only one hoping the nats take a complete shit during these last two months? I don't like that team. Harper and Davey Johnson both really bother me with all their talking. Rizzo too. I hope atlanta passes them and they miss playoffs

Agree on everything. Definitely like the way Brown comes to the plate. I just hope that's by his own choice and not someone else's, and that he's comfotable with it. He doesn't have the bat all the way above his head. Now he'll be able to get to inside pitches. And looks like he's got plenty of bat speed as he just tipped that inside-97 mph fastball that I'm sure would have went upper deck if he got a nice hold of it.

"•At one point the Phillies considered trading Hunter Pence, obtaining a center fielder, and re-signing Shane Victorino for right field, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter). Instead, the Dodgers acquired Victorino, and the Giants traded for Pence."

Yeah, seems like they'll definitely make a move for Bourn in the winter.

Johnny Abruzzo

eeriepadave wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

only one AB, but brown's swing looked a lot shorter and more compact tonight than it was last year. hopefully it stays that way

Anyone see his catch from an Iron Pigs game a few days ago? It was pretty awesome! I think it was like #2 on ESPN's top 10 plays of the day

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gicDqZlGYfw

Nice. Is he gonna play LF? He looked so awkward in RF last year.

Cliff Lee - 2 WINS!!!