***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Thread***

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  • BinauralJamBinauralJam Posts: 14,158
    You guys want Soriano as a setup man? Call Cashmen he'll give you a good price.
  • The FixerThe Fixer Posts: 12,837
    Makes no sense at all imo. For once i agree completely with the fixer!!! I would have signed Madson the dude's gonna be real good for years. Plus Papplebons a fly ball pitcher and are porch isn't very deep.

    I wouldn't have paid either one what they gave papelturd or were rumored to give madson. that said I would take madson and his deal over this douche and his deal 100 times out of 100.

    Howard and Papelbon will make a combined 37.5 million next year :roll:

    He might pitch well next year. May pitch well two years from now. Four years, with an option for a 5th year!!!, is way too long for any RP though. The chances of his performance justifying this deal are slim to none
  • The FixerThe Fixer Posts: 12,837
    Phils game on comcast at 7 tonight is probably my favorite regular season phils game of all time.

    Pretty sure it was a thursday afternoon game.
  • The FixerThe Fixer Posts: 12,837
    Here is Keith Law's take...

    thought signing Ryan Madson for four years and $44 million was a bad idea, even though he is the best free-agent reliever on the market, both short- and long-term. The history of signing relievers to deals of that length is simply too awful to ignore.



    That contract would have been a bargain relative to the four-year deal the Phillies are about to give Jonathan Papelbon -- more money, plus a lost draft pick, for an inferior reliever who gives up more fly balls.



    Papelbon was the second-best relief option on the market, but even in one of his best seasons in 2011, he was worth only two or three wins above replacement, and I'd put the over/under on his WAR for this deal at around eight, which would still make it a pretty bad contract. But the real issue with any reliever and with Papelbon specifically is high attrition rates -- relievers don't last, and their peaks tend to be short.

    Papelbon has remade himself once after bottoming out with a fastball-only approach a few years ago, but even now he relies heavily on the hard but very flat four-seamer, which likely won't translate well to a good home run park in Philadelphia. (His career-low home run rate in 2011 wasn't going to last, anyway.) And Papelbon has worked limited innings, never reaching 70 in a season, probably the Red Sox's response to his 2006 shoulder injury.



    The Phillies, as a team, threw 1,477 innings in 2011 and are now going to pay, on average, $12.5 million per year to Papelbon to throw maybe 4.5 percent of those. If they maintained that per-inning rate across their entire staff, they'd spend about $277 million on pitching alone. And since the ninth inning isn't always, or even often, the most leveraged inning in a game, this is a criminal misapplication of funds, not to mention the discarding of yet another first-round draft pick for the Phillies, whose farm system is depleted after a number of trades and other first-round picks lost for free-agent signings.



    Madson remains the best reliever on the market, but the gap between him and the second-best option is much larger, and that should help him max out his value, although the Phillies might just be completely out of touch with the market for relievers and how a sane executive would rationally value the innings they provide.



    As for the Red Sox, they pick up the Phillies' first-round pick, which would make it easier for them to use their own in signing a Type A free agent. They can slide Daniel Bard into the ninth inning -- I don't see his stuff or arm slot translating to the rotation -- and invest the money not spent there on shoring up their rotation.
  • Papelbon signs 4 year/$50 million deal with Phillies:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... b&c_id=mlb
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024Philly 2

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  • The Fixer wrote:
    Makes no sense at all imo. For once i agree completely with the fixer!!! I would have signed Madson the dude's gonna be real good for years. Plus Papplebons a fly ball pitcher and are porch isn't very deep.

    I wouldn't have paid either one what they gave papelturd or were rumored to give madson. that said I would take madson and his deal over this douche and his deal 100 times out of 100.

    Howard and Papelbon will make a combined 37.5 million next year :roll:

    He might pitch well next year. May pitch well two years from now. Four years, with an option for a 5th year!!!, is way too long for any RP though. The chances of his performance justifying this deal are slim to none

    This is making me sick. It might still not happen, right? Ugh. :evil:


    At least I'm enjoying watching this fun Phillies Mets game.
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  • It's on the Phillies website. FUCK.
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  • RW81233RW81233 Posts: 2,393
    To borrow from Kurt Cobain look on the bright side, suicide....ok more seriously. Paps is basically the White Mississippian version of Coco Cordero. The Reds blew up for him in the 08 FA period, and he's been a standard above-average reliever over that time. Not too good, not too bad. If you get that outta Paps, it'll never be worth the 50 million you spent today, but Cordero was something like 4 for 40 and with inflation this makes about sense. What doesn't make sense is spending money for a reliever on a team that will win about 80 games just based on your 5 starters ability. Paps WAR for normal teams might be 3, but for the Phils it'll be like .1, because they may as well leave Capn' Roy, Cliffy, and Cole on the hill to finish the game. I know this is terrible, and usually like to revel in your pain, but it's just a standard deal for an above-average reliever who will be about as good as K-Rod by the end. Good luck.
  • RW81233 wrote:
    To borrow from Kurt Cobain look on the bright side, suicide....ok more seriously. Paps is basically the White Mississippian version of Coco Cordero. The Reds blew up for him in the 08 FA period, and he's been a standard above-average reliever over that time. Not too good, not too bad. If you get that outta Paps, it'll never be worth the 50 million you spent today, but Cordero was something like 4 for 40 and with inflation this makes about sense. What doesn't make sense is spending money for a reliever on a team that will win about 80 games just based on your 5 starters ability. Paps WAR for normal teams might be 3, but for the Phils it'll be like .1, because they may as well leave Capn' Roy, Cliffy, and Cole on the hill to finish the game. I know this is terrible, and usually like to revel in your pain, but it's just a standard deal for an above-average reliever who will be about as good as K-Rod by the end. Good luck.

    That's a better take than I feel like it is.
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  • neilybabes86neilybabes86 Posts: 16,057
    hahaha

    enjoy this bum....in your ballpark... :lol::lol:
    i post on the board of a band that doesn't exsist anymore .......i need my head examined.......
  • RW81233 wrote:
    To borrow from Kurt Cobain look on the bright side, suicide....ok more seriously. Paps is basically the White Mississippian version of Coco Cordero. The Reds blew up for him in the 08 FA period, and he's been a standard above-average reliever over that time. Not too good, not too bad. If you get that outta Paps, it'll never be worth the 50 million you spent today, but Cordero was something like 4 for 40 and with inflation this makes about sense. What doesn't make sense is spending money for a reliever on a team that will win about 80 games just based on your 5 starters ability. Paps WAR for normal teams might be 3, but for the Phils it'll be like .1, because they may as well leave Capn' Roy, Cliffy, and Cole on the hill to finish the game. I know this is terrible, and usually like to revel in your pain, but it's just a standard deal for an above-average reliever who will be about as good as K-Rod by the end. Good luck.
    Although i'm not a fan of this signing i disagree with this completely.
    Go Birds!!!!
  • RW81233RW81233 Posts: 2,393
    jammin I said the contract was suck and it'll never be worth it but Coco is a flyball pitcher in the Great American Smallpark. Plus he will be going against the "hellish" lineups that the Mets and Marlins throw out there 15-20 times-ish a year, not the Yanks, Rays, and Joey-Bats. I guess the moral of the story is make way for your Washington Nationals once they sign the Prince of Pain.
  • The FixerThe Fixer Posts: 12,837
    RW81233 wrote:
    To borrow from Kurt Cobain look on the bright side, suicide....ok more seriously. Paps is basically the White Mississippian version of Coco Cordero. The Reds blew up for him in the 08 FA period, and he's been a standard above-average reliever over that time. Not too good, not too bad. If you get that outta Paps, it'll never be worth the 50 million you spent today, but Cordero was something like 4 for 40 and with inflation this makes about sense. What doesn't make sense is spending money for a reliever on a team that will win about 80 games just based on your 5 starters ability. Paps WAR for normal teams might be 3, but for the Phils it'll be like .1, because they may as well leave Capn' Roy, Cliffy, and Cole on the hill to finish the game. I know this is terrible, and usually like to revel in your pain, but it's just a standard deal for an above-average reliever who will be about as good as K-Rod by the end. Good luck.

    That's a better take than I feel like it is.

    haha, best response ever.

    fuck me. RAJ I hate you. Get a fuckin clue.

    Cant wait to see how bad this cuddyer deal is.
  • The FixerThe Fixer Posts: 12,837
    Took the wife out for the Last Supper tonight. Del Frisco's was delicious. Lobster mac n cheese and crab gnocchi. yum

    adulthood is right around the corner :shock:
  • WobbieWobbie Posts: 29,933
    The Fixer wrote:

    1 - why so many years??

    2 - if you're going to overpay for a closer (which I disagree with on premise alone), why not choose the better player, which is madson?

    3 - What teams were you competing against for papelbon?? (an amaro staple is overpaying for aging players, even when there is no competition to raise said players value...see polanco, ibanez, howard, lidge)

    4 - do you expect papelbon's performance to improve over his last few years or do you just love overpaying for dimishing returns on your investments?

    5 - Didn't you go to stanford??

    Dear Fixer-

    1) I did "eeny meeny miney moe"

    2) see above

    3) there was no one else. I just figured "what the fuck? it's not MY money"

    4) nah. I know he'll get worse every year. second part - see above.

    5) I did go to stanford but they only graduated me because I was on the ball team.

    Thanks for your interest.
    RAJ
    If I had known then what I know now...

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  • WobbieWobbie Posts: 29,933
    as a guy familiar with bad contracts (zito, rowand, huff, etc.), here's this:

    Phillies overpay to sign Papelbon

    By David Schoenfield

    Reports are in that the Philadelphia Phillies have signed Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year, $50 million contract, pending a physical.

    As I wrote earlier this week, I'm not a big fan of paying big money for closers, as I think smart organizations can find alternative means to building a bullpen. The Phillies, of course, have deep pockets and there is little doubt Papelbon is one of the best relievers the game ... right?

    Well, how do you define "one of the best"? The Phillies are defining him as "second-best" (behind only Mariano Rivera), at least in terms of salary. But here are Papelbon's rankings over the past three seasons among all relievers with at least 150 innings:

    * 19th in batting average
    * 16th in on-base percentage
    * 18th in slugging percentage
    * 23rd in ERA


    OK ... so maybe he isn't quite as awesome as we think. To be fair, he was better in 2011 (at least up until the final game) than 2010 and 2009, throwing more strikes and posting the second-best strikeout rate of his career. Overall, however, he wasn't as dominating the past three seasons as his first three seasons. If he pitches like he did in 2011, he's an elite closer; if he pitches like he did in 2010, when he seemed reluctant to challenge hitters and he served up seven home runs, he's less than elite.

    So why the $50 million contract? Well, he's a proven Closer, with a capital C. He has the fifth-most saves over the past three seasons and the second-most ever of any pitcher in his first seven seasons. He's shown he has the necessary guts and fortitude to handle the ninth inning, unlike a mere middle reliever. Heck, he's even closed out a World Series. (Never mind that three of the past 10 World Series champs had unproven closers, including two rookies.) Of course, in the past six biggest games he's pitched in -- the 2008 and '09 playoffs and the final game of 2011 -- he's just three for six in save opportunities, as Red Sox fans well know.

    OK, that's a little harsh. Papelbon is a very good pitcher. He's been handled carefully in his career (never pitched 70 innings in a regular season) and is as good a bet as any reliever to remain healthy the next four seasons. I don't think he makes the Phillies any better than they were in 2011 or pushes them any closer to a World Series title (Ryan Madson was excellent), but he's a safe, if expensive, bet to do the job well.

    As for the Red Sox, they can go after Madson or be content to slide Daniel Bard into the closer role and use the Papelbon money to go after two or three middle relievers to rebuild a bullpen drastically in need of depth, or a rotation drastically in need of another arm. All things considered, losing Papelbon may end up being a positive for Boston.
    If I had known then what I know now...

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  • Drank my first Faithfull last night. It's a really good beer. Very well done Belgian golden ale with a subtle fruit flavor. And you guys know I am hard on Dogfish Head. ;)
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  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,527
    Drank my first Faithfull last night. It's a really good beer. Very well done Belgian golden ale with a subtle fruit flavor. And you guys know I am hard on Dogfish Head. ;)

    that is good to hear johnny. i respect your opinion on beers. i still haven't been able to get my hands on it yet. :x

    papelschlong eh? if it came down to him or madson, similar money (less was reported for mad dog right?) not sure why they just didn't bring madson back.

    and somebody tell jimmy rollins to stop clogging up my facebook home page. hopped on this morning and dude had about 20 posts about the fucking fight last night. awful.
    www.myspace.com
  • polaris_xpolaris_x Posts: 13,559
    i would really like to know who else was in the running for papelbon ... i suspect it's like the real estate racket where no one knows what the other bids so some couple desperate for a house overpays by like 15% ...

    these kind of deals just makes it that much harder for small market teams to compete ... it's one thing to have a huge vault to spend ... it's another to set market rates based on that vault ...
  • Cliffy6745Cliffy6745 Posts: 33,727
    Drank my first Faithfull last night. It's a really good beer. Very well done Belgian golden ale with a subtle fruit flavor. And you guys know I am hard on Dogfish Head. ;)

    that is good to hear johnny. i respect your opinion on beers. i still haven't been able to get my hands on it yet. :x

    papelschlong eh? if it came down to him or madson, similar money (less was reported for mad dog right?) not sure why they just didn't bring madson back.

    and somebody tell jimmy rollins to stop clogging up my facebook home page. hopped on this morning and dude had about 20 posts about the fucking fight last night. awful.

    I have probably been too hard on the beer, was just hoping for something a bit different. I'll put it this way, if this beer didn't have Pearl Jam slapped on the label there are many beers on tap at Dogfish Head that I would drink before it. Bitches Brew is fucking awesome.

    Have you looked around recently? It hit shelves in Philly on Thursday, I think. A few places are already out, I believe. I think I heard they are brewing another batch right now.

    Great fight last night.
  • WobbieWobbie Posts: 29,933

    and somebody tell jimmy rollins to stop clogging up my facebook home page. hopped on this morning and dude had about 20 posts about the fucking fight last night. awful.
    facebook? :wtf:

    I'm a little disappointed in the juggler.
    If I had known then what I know now...

    Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
    VIC 07
    EV LA1 08
    Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
    Columbus 10
    EV LA 11
    Vancouver 11
    Missoula 12
    Portland 13, Spokane 13
    St. Paul 14, Denver 14
    Philly I & II, 16
    Denver 22
  • and somebody tell jimmy rollins to stop clogging up my facebook home page. hopped on this morning and dude had about 20 posts about the fucking fight last night. awful.

    So defriend him. :lol:
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  • polaris_x wrote:
    i would really like to know who else was in the running for papelbon ... i suspect it's like the real estate racket where no one knows what the other bids so some couple desperate for a house overpays by like 15% ...

    these kind of deals just makes it that much harder for small market teams to compete ... it's one thing to have a huge vault to spend ... it's another to set market rates based on that vault ...

    Wasn't it the Blue Jays who signed BJ Ryan to that ridiculous contract? This Papelbon thing isn't hurting anyone else because the Phillies are just flushing money down the toilet.
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  • polaris_xpolaris_x Posts: 13,559
    polaris_x wrote:
    i would really like to know who else was in the running for papelbon ... i suspect it's like the real estate racket where no one knows what the other bids so some couple desperate for a house overpays by like 15% ...

    these kind of deals just makes it that much harder for small market teams to compete ... it's one thing to have a huge vault to spend ... it's another to set market rates based on that vault ...

    Wasn't it the Blue Jays who signed BJ Ryan to that ridiculous contract? This Papelbon thing isn't hurting anyone else because the Phillies are just flushing money down the toilet.

    oh yeah ... stupid contract for sure ... and you won't get an argument from me ...

    i disagree tho in terms of the overall market ... papelbon is getting paid like the second best reliever in the game without second best stats ... so, anyone with stats better than his (and there are plenty) can easily ask for this contract if not more ...

    also - it puts a wrench in the trade market because gms are gonna be looking at their relievers and saying - well, this guy is worth x amount ...so, i'm gonna ask more ...

    having said all that ... this is mlb and this is how it's been run for a long time ... the good side to this equation is that the phils will get a shitty ROI on this guy and yeah - they will suffer the most from this decision ...
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Posts: 16,972
    Cliffy6745 wrote:

    I have probably been too hard on the beer, was just hoping for something a bit different. I'll put it this way, if this beer didn't have Pearl Jam slapped on the label there are many beers on tap at Dogfish Head that I would drink before it. Bitches Brew is fucking awesome.

    Have you looked around recently? It hit shelves in Philly on Thursday, I think. A few places are already out, I believe. I think I heard they are brewing another batch right now.

    Great fight last night.

    Alright, alright....finally out of my god damn sports depression........to see the Phils signed Papeldouche and the Birds are now 3-6....yet, for some reason I'm alright.

    Anyway, yeah, the beer - it's definitely not a good Belgian. Decent beer, but the currant just overpowers the entire taste wayyyy too much. With that said though, I like it in the way that it's like a glorified Miller Lite and would be perfect for a PJ tailgate. Which is what I think this beer should be - the beer I drink in the parking lot for 7 hours before a show.

    Oh, and of course because PJ is slapped on this bottle that everyone on the board would love it.

    I gotta find the pictures I have of the 20 bottles we bought down in Rehoboth. It's quite the impressive sight.
  • The FixerThe Fixer Posts: 12,837
    Pretty accurate summary here. At least we will always have '08

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Phil ... ncy-111211
  • WobbieWobbie Posts: 29,933
    so.....paplebon says "it's not about the money" and that he's in philly "to add to (his) ring collection" :roll:
    If I had known then what I know now...

    Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
    VIC 07
    EV LA1 08
    Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
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    EV LA 11
    Vancouver 11
    Missoula 12
    Portland 13, Spokane 13
    St. Paul 14, Denver 14
    Philly I & II, 16
    Denver 22
  • imalive wrote:
    so.....paplebon says "it's not about the money" and that he's in philly "to add to (his) ring collection" :roll:

    Oh cut the guy some slack. What would you say?

    "I'm very pleased that Mr. Amaro is dumb enough to give me this much money and since I won a World Series in '07, I could give a crap if I win another."
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024Philly 2

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  • pjhawkspjhawks Posts: 12,430
    imalive wrote:
    so.....paplebon says "it's not about the money" and that he's in philly "to add to (his) ring collection" :roll:

    Oh cut the guy some slack. What would you say?

    "I'm very pleased that Mr. Amaro is dumb enough to give me this much money and since I won a World Series in '07, I could give a crap if I win another."

    just once i'd love to hear a guy say 'you're damn right it's about the money'
  • pjhawks wrote:
    imalive wrote:
    so.....paplebon says "it's not about the money" and that he's in philly "to add to (his) ring collection" :roll:

    Oh cut the guy some slack. What would you say?

    "I'm very pleased that Mr. Amaro is dumb enough to give me this much money and since I won a World Series in '07, I could give a crap if I win another."

    just once i'd love to hear a guy say 'you're damn right it's about the money'

    Yeah but I think it's only about the money if you take more to go to a crappy team (Jason Werth for example). Papaelbon is getting paid a ridiculous amount AND is going to a contender.
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024Philly 2

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