2024 US Election - Predictions

mrussel1

wnh1977 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

looking back, I feel like dem's biggest mistakes in 2016 and 2024 were running on character instead of hard policy. No one seems to care if the president is a POS, as long as he gets some shit done that they deem important. 

Agree.  

The Democratic party favors a mixed economy and generally supports a progressive tax system, higher minimum wages, Social Security, universal health care, public education, and subsidized housing. It also supports infrastructure development and clean energy investments to achieve economic development and job creation.

This is what you get when you do a Google search.  A lot more of this and a lot less "At least we're not Donald Trump" would've been nice.  Not to mention a decent candidate that actually received votes in a primary.

That wasn't her fault.  There was no way to do a primary in that period of time.  

Merkin Baller

nvm

shadowcast

The results of this past election is nothing short of a massive political realignment. The Left needs to take a long hard look at themselves and do some self reflecting. They went from the party of tolerance to the party of intolerance. From peace and love to War hawks. 

Spiritual_Chaos

pjl44 said:

This seems directionally correct to me but will certainly send leftists screeching 

Don’t say you believe in God?

eddiec

shadowcast said:

The results of this past election is nothing short of a massive political realignment. The Left needs to take a long hard look at themselves and do some self reflecting. They went from the party of tolerance to the party of intolerance. From peace and love to War hawks. 

It's hard not to be intolerant towards the guy who tried to overturn the last election and doesn't believe in the peaceful transfer of power.

Some people either have amnesia to what happened, refuse to believe it, or are just too complacent that something like that can actually happen in the US.

mrussel1

shadowcast said:

The results of this past election is nothing short of a massive political realignment. The Left needs to take a long hard look at themselves and do some self reflecting. They went from the party of tolerance to the party of intolerance. From peace and love to War hawks. 

I prefer the party of the professional class, which the D's have become.  And that's the irony.  Trump is going to extend and lower the corporate tax cuts as well as the reduce the marginal rate on the personal side.  The net effect will be to help me on my company's corp number, capital gains, and personal income taxes.  And right now the current plan will add 9.6 Trillion to the debt over ten years unless there is massive reduction in social help programs, which doesn't help the middle and lower class.  

The irony of all of this is that Trump's agenda will help more 2024 Democrats than Republicans.  And you'll still vote for it.  And I'll still vote against it.  

pjhawks

Trump says he is open to RFKs idea to ban vaccines.  Ready for polio to come back?  fucking idiots.

Saw a great quote a month or two ago (not sure who said it though) that paraphrasing said 'if you want to know if vaccines work go to an old cemetery and read the headstones of all the children who died back in the old days, and go to one now and see how few are dying today.  the difference is the vaccines".

HughFreakingDillon

shadowcast said:

The results of this past election is nothing short of a massive political realignment. The Left needs to take a long hard look at themselves and do some self reflecting. They went from the party of tolerance to the party of intolerance. From peace and love to War hawks. 

I'm ok with not tolerating racism and bigotry. 

Gern Blansten

mrussel1 said:

shadowcast said:

The results of this past election is nothing short of a massive political realignment. The Left needs to take a long hard look at themselves and do some self reflecting. They went from the party of tolerance to the party of intolerance. From peace and love to War hawks. 

I prefer the party of the professional class, which the D's have become.  And that's the irony.  Trump is going to extend and lower the corporate tax cuts as well as the reduce the marginal rate on the personal side.  The net effect will be to help me on my company's corp number, capital gains, and personal income taxes.  And right now the current plan will add 9.6 Trillion to the debt over ten years unless there is massive reduction in social help programs, which doesn't help the middle and lower class.  

The irony of all of this is that Trump's agenda will help more 2024 Democrats than Republicans.  And you'll still vote for it.  And I'll still vote against it.  

yep....he gave me $50,000 tax free. Didn't make me vote for him

Go Beavers

shadowcast said:

The results of this past election is nothing short of a massive political realignment. The Left needs to take a long hard look at themselves and do some self reflecting. They went from the party of tolerance to the party of intolerance. From peace and love to War hawks. 

Do you reply back to anyone?

Gern Blansten

shadowcast said:

The results of this past election is nothing short of a massive political realignment. The Left needs to take a long hard look at themselves and do some self reflecting. They went from the party of tolerance to the party of intolerance. From peace and love to War hawks. 

Up until Tuesday night everyone was saying that about the GOP. They sure as fuck didn't change.

shadowcast

HughFreakingDillon said:

shadowcast said:

The results of this past election is nothing short of a massive political realignment. The Left needs to take a long hard look at themselves and do some self reflecting. They went from the party of tolerance to the party of intolerance. From peace and love to War hawks. 

I'm ok with not tolerating racism and bigotry. 

Who was racist? If you say Trump why did he gain in the Latino vote and didn't lose any of the black vote? Also Dearborn Michigan which has a high population if not the highest of Muslims voted Red and flipped the state. Sounds like someone has been misinformed. Stop listening to MSNBC. Take your blinders off. 

mace1229

Merkin Baller said:

If only one of the candidates had a proposal to help 1st time home buyers. 

Many people, myself included, didn't like that plan. I don't think handing out 25k is the solution. And being given 25k to buy a 500k house at 8% is nothing compared to buying that same house for 300k n at 3.25% 5 years ago.

tempo_n_groove

HughFreakingDillon said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mace1229 said:

Gern Blansten said:

mace1229 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

Gern Blansten said:

I think some of my posts over the last few months will show this. I have been saying that if trump wins it is because the electorate is just too fucking ignorant.

How do we recover from that? How does an opposition party combat complete ignorance of an electorate influenced by memes rather than actual facts? These people do not listen to in depth discussions of important topics, they vote strictly on outrage.

It will be easier by itself when people are less distressed in their everyday life about the economy and surviving. Then they can raise their eyes a bit and be less ego and shortsighted.

Thinks like this accelerate when society is going through a crisis and people therefore feel unsecure. See: Germany in the 30s

At the same time. Making people be less ego, shortsighted and racist takes effort. And I heard that youtuber Hasan once talk about how young men online is only met by a huge right wing space (whether that is Joe Rogan or Tim Pool or whoever) and the left has lost the fight of being an option. Ego and othering rules the day.

And effects of climate change etc, won't make the above easier over time ofc.

When is anyone ever less distressed about their everyday life though? Our economy is doing very well right now and the incumbent party got booted because the perception is that things are awful.

Depends on how you measure the economy. 
The perception is bad because car prices are up 25%. Grocery prices are way up. You're going to pay 2-3 times the mortgage if you buy a home today compared to 5 years ago. Insurance costs have skyrocketed.
There are a lot of people who are financially worse of today than they were 5 years ago. 
You can argue who is and is not responsible, but I think downplaying the effects hurt.

maybe...or at least not spelling out why these things occurred. 

These are the topics that I was seeing constantly in my tiktok feed...just bullshit clips blaming Harris/Biden, etc., for things that normally happen in our economy. Once again...ignorance. When the majority of the electorate is ignorant and the news they receive is false we get trump as the result.

It's very concerning to me.

But they aren't normal. And calming they are is part of the downplaying I was talking about. 
If we didn't already own a home prior to 2019, I don't think I could ever afford one in my lifetime. I don't know how younger couples are going to any time soon. In many parts of the country the average home, with insurance, taxes, higher interest rates, etc, is going to be more than the entire paycheck of a new teacher. So a young couple where both are teachers, or both have similar salaries, it will take the entire paycheck of one and a portion of the other to just pay their mortgage. 
New car prices rises 25% in 5 years isn't normal. Which has also created a domino effect of cars lasting longer on the road, meaning more repairs and higher maintenance costs and increasing the cost of used cars.
Grocery prices rising nearly 30% in 5 years is not normal. 
None of these things are things that "normally happen in our economy." And calming it is is just downplaying it.
Now, like I said, You can argue the causes. And I would agree covid is a huge factor. But just telling people it's not as bad as you think it is over and over again probably cost them the election. 

Housing problems.  
Influx of migrants need to live somewhere.  
Lack of supply of houses.  Not a lot of new construction of houses in heavily populated areas anymore.  You can only build up.
AirBnB/Vrbo have taken a chunk of the market and have part time rentals sucking up supply.
Flipping houses.  Hollywood up a house w some paint and a rug and jack up the price.  These are the new "used Car Salesmen".
Corporations have been gobbling up homes to rent thus driving prices up because they want a return on their investment.
Corporations offering Cash Prices to help you buy a house which comes with a premium on top thus raising the initial cost of the house.
Shall I go on with he problems of housing?

Totally agree w you that newer couples in no way are going to be able to afford houses.  House poor will be a common phenomenon.

I fully expect at least one of my kids to live with us forever. That's fine. extra rent. 

I chuckled at this.  No walking around nekkid for you bub, sorry.

shadowcast

Gern Blansten said:

shadowcast said:

The results of this past election is nothing short of a massive political realignment. The Left needs to take a long hard look at themselves and do some self reflecting. They went from the party of tolerance to the party of intolerance. From peace and love to War hawks. 

Up until Tuesday night everyone was saying that about the GOP. They sure as fuck didn't change.

Changed me as I voted for Nader, HRC and Obama twice. 

shadowcast

Go Beavers said:

shadowcast said:

The results of this past election is nothing short of a massive political realignment. The Left needs to take a long hard look at themselves and do some self reflecting. They went from the party of tolerance to the party of intolerance. From peace and love to War hawks. 

Do you reply back to anyone?

What's your point and yes I do. 

pjl44

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

This seems directionally correct to me but will certainly send leftists screeching 

Other than points 1 and 2 (to a limited extent), there is not one point in here that should be subject to legislation or the political process.  These are all social issues and for the gov't to put their thumb on any of them is violation of personal freedoms.  

I am neither leftist or screeching.  I just have this strange habit of critical thinking.  None of these make sense as a platform for a political party.  But if you can think of a law that ensures that "academics and non profit staffers do not occupy a unique position of virtue" without violating the Constitution, I'd love to hear it.  

Your reading comprehension skills remain undefeated

tbergs

Today it was suggested that someone I know should stop believing all the MSM because all they do is lie and divide. Mentioned that they should look at different sources. When questioned about the sources, the reply was Dan Bongino, ZeroHedge, Tim Pool and NY Post. That is the better source of information and the truth more so than Reuters, AP, NPR. I mean, un-fucking-believable how brainwashed these people are. Sensationalized opinions are news and news sources are lies and divisive? I'm all for diverse news sources because I want information that isn't presented with an angle unless it's an opinion piece, but it seems people are now following any schmuck with a podcast, TikTok or X account who don't actually fact check (oooh, the bad thing liberals do) or confirm their stories' sources. Yikes!

pjl44

Neither a party platform nor framework for legislation. Yeesh.

Merkin Baller

mace1229 said:

Merkin Baller said:

If only one of the candidates had a proposal to help 1st time home buyers. 

Many people, myself included, didn't like that plan. I don't think handing out 25k is the solution. And being given 25k to buy a 500k house at 8% is nothing compared to buying that same house for 300k n at 3.25% 5 years ago.

Did trump have a better plan to address this issue? 


Edit: did he have ANY plan for the economy besides tariffs?