She’s up 1.2 pre-debate. I said if you see her up 7-8 points next week, that will show what kind of significance winning the debate had. I’m with you I think it bumps her between 1-2 points.
Polls are about statistical sampling not about who answers Trump and who answers Harris on the phone call.
They extrapolate the results into who they believe will show up on election day by demographics
One of the reasons Trump may be doing well in the polls is because the polls underreported his vote totals the last two elections and they are compensating for that
The Democrats since Roe was overturned have also been outperforming polls for the last 2 years and it's doubtful current polling is accounting for that.
She’s up 1.2 pre-debate. I said if you see her up 7-8 points next week, that will show what kind of significance winning the debate had. I’m with you I think it bumps her between 1-2 points.
Polls are about statistical sampling not about who answers Trump and who answers Harris on the phone call.
They extrapolate the results into who they believe will show up on election day by demographics
One of the reasons Trump may be doing well in the polls is because the polls underreported his vote totals the last two elections and they are compensating for that
The Democrats since Roe was overturned have also been outperforming polls for the last 2 years and it's doubtful current polling is accounting for that.
You can look back on polls on this date 4 years ago and 8 years ago. Real Clear Politics does a great job of showing where candidates were. That’s the only concrete measuring stick. And it’s an average of 10 major polls. It’s not a partisan site.
The polls are showing every swing state within the margin of error. If you don’t think it’s a toss-up at this point, you’re just not being honest with yourself.
RCP had Kamala up 1.2 pre-debate. If you see that number rise to 7-8 by this time next week that’s a huge debate win.
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2003 : Irvine 1+2, Vegas, Bridge School 1+2, Santa Barbara
2005 : Missoula, Vancouver, Gorge 2006 : LA 1+2, Vegas
2008 : W Palm Beach, Tampa, Who Rock Honors, EV LA 2
2009 : LA 1, LA 4, EV 1 Nashville 2011 : EV Long Beach
2012: EV Vegas 1+2
2013 LA 1+2 2018 Prague, Wrigley 2 2020 Phoenix, SD
She’s up 1.2 pre-debate. I said if you see her up 7-8 points next week, that will show what kind of significance winning the debate had. I’m with you I think it bumps her between 1-2 points.
Polls are about statistical sampling not about who answers Trump and who answers Harris on the phone call.
They extrapolate the results into who they believe will show up on election day by demographics
One of the reasons Trump may be doing well in the polls is because the polls underreported his vote totals the last two elections and they are compensating for that
The Democrats since Roe was overturned have also been outperforming polls for the last 2 years and it's doubtful current polling is accounting for that.
You can look back on polls on this date 4 years ago and 8 years ago. Real Clear Politics does a great job of showing where candidates were. That’s the only concrete measuring stick. And it’s an average of 10 major polls. It’s not a partisan site.
The polls are showing every swing state within the margin of error. If you don’t think it’s a toss-up at this point, you’re just not being honest with yourself.
RCP had Kamala up 1.2 pre-debate. If you see that number rise to 7-8 by this time next week that’s a huge debate win.
Your assumption is that the statisticians at the polling organizations made no changes to their models after the elections. Lex is pretty clear in saying they have. The 2022 mids and off- cycle elections swung the other way, under counting D support due to Roe. So just comparing polling averages from 16 and 20, which are averages of averages already, may very well be flawed logic.
She sidestepped 2 or 3 questions to say what she wanted to say. That’s a tale as old as time in debates and certainly less than the typical presidential candidate. Meanwhile Trump’s answer to every question was “they’re coming in, blah blah”.
A lot of men pay good money to be dominated like that.
I had Trump saying something(s) disgustingly racist on my bingo card but “they’re eating your pets” was a surprise to me.
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Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
She’s up 1.2 pre-debate. I said if you see her up 7-8 points next week, that will show what kind of significance winning the debate had. I’m with you I think it bumps her between 1-2 points.
Polls are about statistical sampling not about who answers Trump and who answers Harris on the phone call.
They extrapolate the results into who they believe will show up on election day by demographics
One of the reasons Trump may be doing well in the polls is because the polls underreported his vote totals the last two elections and they are compensating for that
The Democrats since Roe was overturned have also been outperforming polls for the last 2 years and it's doubtful current polling is accounting for that.
.
RCP had Kamala up 1.2 pre-debate. If you see that number rise to 7-8 by this time next week that’s a huge debate win.
We’re out here just posting our own personal bars to clear or something?
How many Haitian factory workers will be murdered because of this fake news nonsense?
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Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
She was very well prepared, though, and she clearly is thinking about the swing states -- her mention of the 800,000 Polish-Americans in Pennsylvania was important, I think! Poland and Poles are more mindful than most of the threat posed by autocracy.
This was a tremendous point. But she could have also pointed to the over 100k+ Ukrainian immigrants in PA, not to mention all of us that are first or second generation.
Look, no one is going to gas light me and say the performance was just okay. It was exceptional. She had a firm grasp of the facts, her demeanor was spot on. And she did a great job leveraging different arguments together. Her answers on abortion and healthcare were home runs, particularly talking about pre-existing conditions. And where she knew she was vulnerable, that's where she would needle Trump. The first time she did it was on the border or immigration question I believe. Totally distracts him. Absolute fucking genius.
Yep. And you know where else there are a bunch of Polish- and Ukrainian-Americans? Michigan. And he couldn't say a thing in defense of Ukraine.
As one of the few women around here, I'll note that she did a great -- awesome -- job of walking the tightrope that a female leader must walk: appear tough and strong but not b---hy or shrewish, feminine but not "emotional," and so on.
All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and shortest means to accomplish it.
her facial expressions cracked me up. i was waiting for her to pull a bugs bunny and hold up a flag with a picture of a screw and a baseball on it when trump was talking. seemed to me she was mocking him at times. and it was what needed to happen.
I saw "Bless your heart!" interchanged with "Are you okay?" -- over and over and over again.
All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and shortest means to accomplish it.
1) Both of my twenty-something kids watched the whole thing, live (husband I opted to go out and wait for post-mortems, instead).
2) This was despite both of them knowing that NOTHING that happened during the debate would change their votes.
3) Yeah, younger people are less engaged, generally. But: there's no avoiding the debate in its aftermath, and who knows how many watched it later, like I did?
4) It doesn't include streaming, etc. My kids don't use TVs, they watch everything on their laptops or their phones. Even if there's a TV in the room, they're using laptops.
All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and shortest means to accomplish it.
her facial expressions cracked me up. i was waiting for her to pull a bugs bunny and hold up a flag with a picture of a screw and a baseball on it when trump was talking. seemed to me she was mocking him at times. and it was what needed to happen.
I saw "Bless your heart!" interchanged with "Are you okay?" -- over and over and over again.
What a perfect way to put it! Even her ‘are you okay’ look had a genuine concern for him to it.
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EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
her facial expressions cracked me up. i was waiting for her to pull a bugs bunny and hold up a flag with a picture of a screw and a baseball on it when trump was talking. seemed to me she was mocking him at times. and it was what needed to happen.
I saw "Bless your heart!" interchanged with "Are you okay?" -- over and over and over again.
She was great. And I saw the faces too. When he was wrapping up the dog eating diatribe, she made this empathetic face that you make towards someone who just can't help it. It was a mixture of both sadness and pity. I tried to freeze it to snapshot it, but it didn't work. But the face...
her facial expressions cracked me up. i was waiting for her to pull a bugs bunny and hold up a flag with a picture of a screw and a baseball on it when trump was talking. seemed to me she was mocking him at times. and it was what needed to happen.
I saw "Bless your heart!" interchanged with "Are you okay?" -- over and over and over again.
She was great. And I saw the faces too. When he was wrapping up the dog eating diatribe, she made this empathetic face that you make towards someone who just can't help it. It was a mixture of both sadness and pity. I tried to freeze it to snapshot it, but it didn't work. But the face...
But she knew the questions and the moderators sucked!
her facial expressions cracked me up. i was waiting for her to pull a bugs bunny and hold up a flag with a picture of a screw and a baseball on it when trump was talking. seemed to me she was mocking him at times. and it was what needed to happen.
I saw "Bless your heart!" interchanged with "Are you okay?" -- over and over and over again.
She was great. And I saw the faces too. When he was wrapping up the dog eating diatribe, she made this empathetic face that you make towards someone who just can't help it. It was a mixture of both sadness and pity. I tried to freeze it to snapshot it, but it didn't work. But the face...
Her expression encapsulated what 55% of country was thinking listening to that idiot.
Kinda fascinated by that handshake. He was shaken right from the start.
My husband's take: "She took his space!" -- power move.
Such an amazing contrast to feeling as if Biden lost the moment he started walking onto the stage. My confidence, which was already high, started soaring after those initial ten seconds.
1) Both of my twenty-something kids watched the whole thing, live (husband I opted to go out and wait for post-mortems, instead).
2) This was despite both of them knowing that NOTHING that happened during the debate would change their votes.
3) Yeah, younger people are less engaged, generally. But: there's no avoiding the debate in its aftermath, and who knows how many watched it later, like I did?
4) It doesn't include streaming, etc. My kids don't use TVs, they watch everything on their laptops or their phones. Even if there's a TV in the room, they're using laptops.
Kids will also consume the content across social media as well.
1) Both of my twenty-something kids watched the whole thing, live (husband I opted to go out and wait for post-mortems, instead).
2) This was despite both of them knowing that NOTHING that happened during the debate would change their votes.
3) Yeah, younger people are less engaged, generally. But: there's no avoiding the debate in its aftermath, and who knows how many watched it later, like I did?
4) It doesn't include streaming, etc. My kids don't use TVs, they watch everything on their laptops or their phones. Even if there's a TV in the room, they're using laptops.
Kids will also consume the content across social media as well.
You could practically choose any split-screen when Trump was speaking, and her looks in his direction were just fantastic. Great foundation for some good memes.
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EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
And our resident independents will say "I don't know, folks - why don't you think Trump will be a better president this time around."
Just like January 6th, though - he just did a debate, he didn't lead any of these people to make these threats. It's the mayor of Springfield's fault if anything happens.
If anyone has any doubts - this is what fascism looks like.
And our resident independents will say "I don't know, folks - why don't you think Trump will be a better president this time around."
Just like January 6th, though - he just did a debate, he didn't lead any of these people to make these threats. It's the mayor of Springfield's fault if anything happens.
If anyone has any doubts - this is what fascism looks like.
Comments
Polls are about statistical sampling not about who answers Trump and who answers Harris on the phone call.
They extrapolate the results into who they believe will show up on election day by demographics
One of the reasons Trump may be doing well in the polls is because the polls underreported his vote totals the last two elections and they are compensating for that
The Democrats since Roe was overturned have also been outperforming polls for the last 2 years and it's doubtful current polling is accounting for that.
RCP had Kamala up 1.2 pre-debate. If you see that number rise to 7-8 by this time next week that’s a huge debate win.
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2005 : Missoula, Vancouver, Gorge 2006 : LA 1+2, Vegas
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2009 : LA 1, LA 4, EV 1 Nashville 2011 : EV Long Beach
2012: EV Vegas 1+2
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2020 Phoenix, SD
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
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"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
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Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21;
Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
My husband's take: "She took his space!" -- power move.
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
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https://abcnews.go.com/US/bomb-threat-reported-multiple-buildings-springfield-ohio/story?id=113619803
And our resident independents will say "I don't know, folks - why don't you think Trump will be a better president this time around."
Just like January 6th, though - he just did a debate, he didn't lead any of these people to make these threats. It's the mayor of Springfield's fault if anything happens.
If anyone has any doubts - this is what fascism looks like.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©