Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
Hey, we could all debate this till the cows come home, we all love the band we all love each other. Why don’t we agree on some simple set of parameters for the difficult to get Northeast tickets into a probability analysis or an expected result analysis based on mathematics? Why don’t we just say for each difficult to get category such as P1 or GA, there are 1000 available tickets and 15,000 fans looking to get those tickets? Why can’t we just do the math on that and see what the statistical probability is to hit two shows, three shows, four shows with the GA, etc.?
It’s basic math we can make basic estimates and see what the odds are. It’s not a mystery. It’s math.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto.
not even close, state lottery odds are much worse
I agree with that
Of course you do.
Yes because it's factual
I’m beginning to doubt your background in applied mathematics.
I agreed with that statement and it makes you doubt my background in Mathematics? That's logical
I saw this on facebook but do agree with these ideas moving forward:
For 10c lottery, every city with multiple shows should be that nobody gets both shows until everyone requesting gets at least one.
Don't start the verified fan registration until 10c lottery is complete. That leaves a better chance (less people registered) for the ones that missed out in the 10c draw.
For example: now I won't need to buy in the verified fan sale since I got 10c tickets but someone who missed out on 10c tickets could get waitlisted.
I don't know what was wrong with the old system. All #1 picks before any #2, etc. Only way to improve that would be if you don't win your #1, then your #2 then becomes a #1 pick. That would almost guarantee at least 1 or 2 wins.
I think the TM system might have basic logic. U2 uses the same system but they don't have seniority (well they sort of do, if you were a member before the tour announcement your order is prioritized over members who signed up after the announcement). They don't have seats by seniority, and you could only get tickets for 1 sphere show, so no 2nd, 3rd priorities to mess up. Once you got tickets, you're done.
It went so smooth but I'm guessing due to less complexity than what 10c does. Seniority probably makes assigning the seats a bit challenging, and probably explains why it's been messed up a few times.
I think the TM system struggles with compexity.
I'm new here but not new to U2. The Sphere presale was a clusterf*** prompting the first apology from the band since the infamous Vertigo presale. It was done very differently in that it was like this one where you were assigned seats as opposed to the usual code you got. They ended up having to do a makeup presale which is how I even got tix. Nightmare. Now I think it had more to do with how few tix there were originally allocated, and complexities given the seating (mostly U2 fans are GA or bust as they usually do full floor GA).
Admittedly, this is my first Ten Club presale, but it definitely beat that. I only requested LA, and got both, P1. Friends got both LA shows, and one of the 2 Vegas shows. Is it possible whatever TM used to randomize didn't work properly, for sure. But it's also possible it's just coincidence.
What was the probability that my post titled " 'Dark Matter' on the charts" would still have no replies after being on the site for 24 hours already? And bear in mind when factoring those odds that, as far as I know, igotid88 is still a member of this fan club in good standing with full posting privileges.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto.
If you want proof that Ticketmaster doesn't work...
My selections for last tour were: 1. AUS1 2. AUS2 3. CHI1 4, CHI2 5. FW1 6. FW2
I went 6 for 6. All we need is for one person here to tell me they didn't get Chicago tickets as choice 1 or 2 and we have proof the priority doesn't work like they told us.
The redraw for the Covid tour, I had Vegas as my #5 pick. I think I got my first 5 or 6 picks (including Vegas). There were plenty of people commenting that they missed out on Vegas. Did they switch from the old system to Ticketmaster for the redraw because I only got my #1 pick (LA1 GA) in the first round (as one might expect)?
Ticketmaster got rid of the priority because it either wasn't working or never existed in the first place. I am actually going to guess the later.
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
Hey, we could all debate this till the cows come home, we all love the band we all love each other. Why don’t we agree on some simple set of parameters for the difficult to get Northeast tickets into a probability analysis or an expected result analysis based on mathematics? Why don’t we just say for each difficult to get category such as P1 or GA, there are 1000 available tickets and 15,000 fans looking to get those tickets? Why can’t we just do the math on that and see what the statistical probability is to hit two shows, three shows, four shows with the GA, etc.?
It’s basic math we can make basic estimates and see what the odds are. It’s not a mystery. It’s math.
If you want proof that Ticketmaster doesn't work...
My selections for last tour were: 1. AUS1 2. AUS2 3. CHI1 4, CHI2 5. FW1 6. FW2
I went 6 for 6. All we need is for one person here to tell me they didn't get Chicago tickets as choice 1 or 2 and we have proof the priority doesn't work like they told us.
The redraw for the Covid tour, I had Vegas as my #5 pick. I think I got my first 5 or 6 picks (including Vegas). There were plenty of people commenting that they missed out on Vegas. Did they switch from the old system to Ticketmaster for the redraw because I only got my #1 pick (LA1 GA) in the first round (as one might expect)?
Ticketmaster got rid of the priority because it either wasn't working or never existed in the first place. I am actually going to guess the later.
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
If the winners were different and seat assignments random, I am gonna guess the odds would be billions to one, we are talking about hitting one in twenty thousand exactly the same twice in a row.
but we know seating is assigned based on seniority. Which makes it sound like the set of winners from night one to night two are very close to being exactly the same, or bootleg had the same winning number in order of seniority on the winners “list.” Either case, the odds seem long but difficult to calculate.
whether we are talking a kilo or a pound, seems another example of long odds, or someone is just having fun with this topic!
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto.
not even close, state lottery odds are much worse
I agree with that
Of course you do.
Yes because it's factual
I’m beginning to doubt your background in applied mathematics.
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
If the winners were different and seat assignments random, I am gonna guess the odds would be billions to one, we are talking about hitting one in twenty thousand exactly the same twice in a row.
but we know seating is assigned based on seniority. Which makes it sound like the set of winners from night one to night two are very close to being exactly the same, or bootleg had the same winning number in order of seniority on the winners “list.” Either case, the odds seem long but difficult to calculate.
whether we are talking a kilo or a pound, seems another example of long odds, or someone is just having fun with this topic!
The only way it would be likely is if you have one of the oldest TC numbers, otherwise it's almost impossible
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto.
Larry this is a perfect example of painting someone into a more extreme position, then going after that extreme position.
it has zero relevance whether the state lotto and a PJ NE quadrella has the same odds. They can be very different, and both are extremely rare, based on math.
Go,ahead, take the challenge, and let’s do the lottery math together, agree on common sense variables based on what the community has accepted for years, instead of making silly at some of our comments
At least 4 or 5 reports of people with the exact same seats 2 nights in a row. Many more of people in the same section and row 2 nights in a row. This is basically impossible if this was truly random
not arguing against the labeling being bonkers. It should be clarified better, but basically GetRight explained it. It was poorly worded/labeled, no doubt.
Yeah, I tend to think this played role in some way. It's a bit conrfusing on it's own. Then there were different instructions in different places. On the "TenClub Request" initial page it says, "This is how it works.... 'Select GA Pit / Reserved for your best chance of getting tickets.'" But it does say further into the process, check all boxes for greater odds. Those two instructions seem to contradict a bit. We have been told specifically in previous draws, that if you entered GA/Resesrved, you didn't need to also enter reserved. But this is a different draw, and I think checking only "GA/Reserved" may have limited your chances for P1 Reserved.
"Holly f**k, that was so amazing, I just forgot who I came here to see!!" - Courtesy of the guy in the U2 t-shirt standing next to me in Aloha Stadium, Post PJ
Anything like this that is reported 4-5 times in the first hour or so after it happened has happened more than 4-5 times. How many people haven't even checked their emails yet?
The question becomes are one night people in two night cities getting consistently better/worse seats than expected? They gotta sit somewhere if others are getting the exact same seats.
Comments
It’s basic math we can make basic estimates and see what the odds are. It’s not a mystery. It’s math.
Admittedly, this is my first Ten Club presale, but it definitely beat that. I only requested LA, and got both, P1. Friends got both LA shows, and one of the 2 Vegas shows. Is it possible whatever TM used to randomize didn't work properly, for sure. But it's also possible it's just coincidence.
My selections for last tour were:
1. AUS1
2. AUS2
3. CHI1
4, CHI2
5. FW1
6. FW2
I went 6 for 6. All we need is for one person here to tell me they didn't get Chicago tickets as choice 1 or 2 and we have proof the priority doesn't work like they told us.
The redraw for the Covid tour, I had Vegas as my #5 pick. I think I got my first 5 or 6 picks (including Vegas). There were plenty of people commenting that they missed out on Vegas. Did they switch from the old system to Ticketmaster for the redraw because I only got my #1 pick (LA1 GA) in the first round (as one might expect)?
Ticketmaster got rid of the priority because it either wasn't working or never existed in the first place. I am actually going to guess the later.
but we know seating is assigned based on seniority. Which makes it sound like the set of winners from night one to night two are very close to being exactly the same, or bootleg had the same winning number in order of seniority on the winners “list.” Either case, the odds seem long but difficult to calculate.
whether we are talking a kilo or a pound, seems another example of long odds, or someone is just having fun with this topic!
This is crazy
it has zero relevance whether the state lotto and a PJ NE quadrella has the same odds. They can be very different, and both are extremely rare, based on math.
Go,ahead, take the challenge, and let’s do the lottery math together, agree on common sense variables based on what the community has accepted for years, instead of making silly at some of our comments
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
"...I changed by not changing at all..."