I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I do think there was something off with the GA draw this time around. I don't know what, and I don't think 10c or PJ management had anything to do with it - other than perhaps not working with their vendor (TM) closely enough on testing and quality control.
My thought is still that because they had to link MSG together to prevent people from being able to get tickets to both shows they somehow messed up the coding on other 2 city shows in a way that boosted odds for N2 for those picked in N1.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
The problem is that once your entry is drawn GA seats may be gone and you may be out of luck for P1, but there are more P1 seats than GA tix. There MAY be P2 tix (if available) left when they draw your entry since there is probably less demand for those seats. Selecting reserved in general increases your odds because there are more seats.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
The problem is that once your entry is drawn GA seats may be gone and you may be out of luck for P1, but there are more P1 seats than GA tix. There MAY be P2 tix (if available) left when they draw your entry since there is probably less demand for those seats. Selecting reserved in general increases your odds because there are more seats.
Yeah. I'm sure there's a reason for it. Ten Club at least said in instructions to check all boxes to increase chances. Originally I did not because I figured "sure I'm good with either GA or Reserved" but when I read the instructions, I just followed the directions although it still didn't fully make sense :-)
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
Very good post. Agree with almost all of it and certainly the analysis.
I think it is highly likely that the methodology changed in some way when the lottery switched to TM (which makes sense, they would have to code the entire process in their system).
I've seen it posted by defenders of the process ad nauseum that "everyone has an equal chance of winning tickets to a given show." I used to be certain that was this case. I am unconvinced that that statement still holds water based on the TM implementation of the lottery parameters. We are looking at self reported data with a likely high degree of selection bias (those who score big and those who lose big are most likely to post about it)...there's no doubt, we don't have all of the pieces.
But if each show was truly an independent draw on a show level basis the odds of so many winning 4,5 east coast dates on one ticket stretches believability. I think it is highly likely that the randomization was done on either a member or city level basis. Most likely city level as we KNOW city results are released in batches with a time lag in between cities. This would also explain why the priority system was so screwed up last go round. If TM randomized entries at the "Philly" level, it could be really hard to re-code the system to randomize again between N1 and N2 (or it's easy and they just DGAF / don't want to spend the money).
I am planning to write an email to 10C when the dust settles. Doubt it gets me anywhere. But it the premise is that "all paying members should have an equal shot at winning tickets" I think it's fair to at least question if everyone is getting what they paid for based on TM implementation of the lottery.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
not arguing against the labeling being bonkers. It should be clarified better, but basically GetRight explained it. It was poorly worded/labeled, no doubt.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
"I'm a lucky man, to count on both hands the [shows I've done]. Some folks just have one, others they got none..."
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 |
Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him. He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.
MSG night 1, P2 MSG Night 2 Unfulfilled, not possible Philly N1 Unfulfilled Philly N2 P2 Baltimore P2 Fenway N1 P1
I picked all possible, but 3 P2's. So I don't know about conspiracy. I am just happy to be in building and I will get Philly 1 somehow, (TM or F2F) MSG 2 may be a problem, lol
2008 MSG I & II 2010 Newark, MSG I 2013 Wrigley Field, Brooklyn I & II, Hartford, LA I & II, San Diego 2014 Detroit, Moline, St. Paul & Milwaukee 2015 Ed Sullivan Theater/ Central Park 2016 FTL, Miami, Philly 1&2, MSG 1&2, Fenway 1 2017 RRHOF 2018 Seattle I & II, Missoula, Boston I & II 2022 Apollo, MSG, Camden, Nashville & St. Louis 2023 St.P. 1 & 2, Austin 1 & 2
I saw this on facebook but do agree with these ideas moving forward:
For 10c lottery, every city with multiple shows should be that nobody gets both shows until everyone requesting gets at least one.
Don't start the verified fan registration until 10c lottery is complete. That leaves a better chance (less people registered) for the ones that missed out in the 10c draw.
For example: now I won't need to buy in the verified fan sale since I got 10c tickets but someone who missed out on 10c tickets could get waitlisted.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion
I agree. I think they were both selectable because all of these shows were based on a template that had multiple tiers, and so for shows with just P1 (no P2) they just hid the P2 option.
"I'm a lucky man, to count on both hands the [shows I've done]. Some folks just have one, others they got none..."
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 |
Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him. He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
MSG night 1, P2 MSG Night 2 Unfulfilled, not possible Philly N1 Unfulfilled Philly N2 P2 Baltimore P2 Fenway N1 P1
I picked all possible, but 3 P2's. So I don't know about conspiracy. I am just happy to be in building and I will get Philly 1 somehow, (TM or F2F) MSG 2 may be a problem, lol
This is the way. Ive lost out before selecting only the best seat option, wasnt going to make that mistake again. I would have missed out on both Seattle shows had i not put in for p2. I scored P1 (Sac) and GA (missoula) at other venues but the really popular ones (seattle/msg/boston) you need to really select all options. It’s better to be in the building then outside it!!
Just getting any 10 club ticket regardless of seating location allows you to confidently plan your trip, If you really must sit up close on the day of the show or even the night before try to get better seats via fan to fan and sell your 10 club tickets via the same portal. I did exactly this for the last eddie vedder solo show (the EB research benefit) at the Benaroya hall. My ten club seats were not very good so on the day of the show i was able to score 2 tickets in row 2 for face value via fan to fan and just sold my tickets that were farther back in the lower reserve area via the same portal
I saw this on facebook but do agree with these ideas moving forward:
For 10c lottery, every city with multiple shows should be that nobody gets both shows until everyone requesting gets at least one.
Don't start the verified fan registration until 10c lottery is complete. That leaves a better chance (less people registered) for the ones that missed out in the 10c draw.
For example: now I won't need to buy in the verified fan sale since I got 10c tickets but someone who missed out on 10c tickets could get waitlisted.
Definitely on the verified fan, it really is bonkers that it had to happen all at once.
On the two dates in one city, it should just run like MSG did this year, if you win one, you are out on the other draw. They can do "second" chance draws if they end up with seats they anticipated would go in the lottery not being distributed. But allowing anyone to get two in a system designed to maximize the odds won't work, because some people will only put in for Night 1 or Night 2, because they know that for whatever reason they can't do the other night.
It is the simplest, least problematic answer and the MSG draw this year proved it works. But there will still be people shut out, but it will minimize that some.
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
This is a great post, thanks!
Hey if you got a hundred grand I can borrow, I’ll take you up on #1, Im Good for it I promise!
If number two happened they need to invalidate all the results, unless I missed reading in the rules that one lucky draw gets you into four notoriously difficult and expensive shows. Otherwise that’s a basic lottery error and certain fans are unfairly winning tickets worth thousands from a possible PJ draw error. I doubt they’d own up to that, but transparency will be nice. Anyway I am prepared to pay $700 for msg instead.
I did a basic probability analysis last nite on this topic with some simple assumptions (past odds for NE shows and # tickets available) - hitting the four toughest NE shows with two GAs, would yield an expected number of winners as less than one. If fan claims on here are true, we have seen many win these four NE shows one one family did it twice. We don’t need to ponder if they did this or that, it’s easy to calculate the chances of seeing results like this with basic mathematics. I call on PJ to share their math with us, if they want to contend their ticketing rules are superior to TMs normal process. We have more than enough data.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows with two GAs in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
This is a great post, thanks!
Hey if you got a hundred grand I can borrow, I’ll take you up on #1, Im Good for it I promise!
If number two happened they need to invalidate all the results, unless I missed reading in the rules that one lucky draw gets you into four notoriously difficult and expensive shows. Otherwise that’s a basic lottery error and certain fans are unfairly winning tickets worth thousands from a possible PJ draw error. I doubt they’d own up to that, but transparency will be nice. Anyway I am prepared to pay $700 for msg instead.
I did a basic probability analysis last nite on this topic with some simple assumptions (past odds for NE shows and # tickets available) - hitting the four toughest NE shows with two GAs, would yield an expected number of winners as less than one. If fan claims on here are true, we have seen many win these four NE shows one one family did it twice. We don’t need to ponder if they did this or that, it’s easy to calculate the chances of seeing results like this with basic mathematics. I call on PJ to share their math with us, if they want to contend their ticketing rules are superior to TMs normal process. We have more than enough data.
Why? It's not the way I'd run a lottery, but it's a valid method.
Unless I missed it, nothing in the rules states how the lottery would be run. We all assumed it would be similar to the way priority-based draws have been done in the past, but there's nothing to indicate that would be the case this time.
"I'm a lucky man, to count on both hands the [shows I've done]. Some folks just have one, others they got none..."
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 |
Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him. He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??
Disclaimer is there because some shows had a P2 level. Adding the P2 level would increase your odds.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??
Agree, options = boxes. It doesn't say "selecting all options [or boxes] will increase your chances." It says "select all options below for Best Available." It then goes on to say "selecting multiple seat preferences will increase your chances." If "multiple seat preferences" was just another way of saying "options" [or boxes], they would have said "selecting all options below will increase your chances of getting tickets." Instead, they said selecting "multiple seat preferences" will increase your chances. That means if you select a single seat preference, i.e., P1 only or P2 only, you have a lesser chance than if you select multiple preferences, i.e., P1 + P2, or GA/P1 + P2, or GA/P1. It doesn't mean you have a lesser chance unless you select the same seat preference multiple times.
Comments
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
The problem is that once your entry is drawn GA seats may be gone and you may be out of luck for P1, but there are more P1 seats than GA tix. There MAY be P2 tix (if available) left when they draw your entry since there is probably less demand for those seats. Selecting reserved in general increases your odds because there are more seats.
I think it is highly likely that the methodology changed in some way when the lottery switched to TM (which makes sense, they would have to code the entire process in their system).
I've seen it posted by defenders of the process ad nauseum that "everyone has an equal chance of winning tickets to a given show." I used to be certain that was this case. I am unconvinced that that statement still holds water based on the TM implementation of the lottery parameters. We are looking at self reported data with a likely high degree of selection bias (those who score big and those who lose big are most likely to post about it)...there's no doubt, we don't have all of the pieces.
But if each show was truly an independent draw on a show level basis the odds of so many winning 4,5 east coast dates on one ticket stretches believability. I think it is highly likely that the randomization was done on either a member or city level basis. Most likely city level as we KNOW city results are released in batches with a time lag in between cities. This would also explain why the priority system was so screwed up last go round. If TM randomized entries at the "Philly" level, it could be really hard to re-code the system to randomize again between N1 and N2 (or it's easy and they just DGAF / don't want to spend the money).
I am planning to write an email to 10C when the dust settles. Doubt it gets me anywhere. But it the premise is that "all paying members should have an equal shot at winning tickets" I think it's fair to at least question if everyone is getting what they paid for based on TM implementation of the lottery.
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
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I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 | Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him.
He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
MSG night 1, P2
MSG Night 2 Unfulfilled, not possible
Philly N1 Unfulfilled
Philly N2 P2
Baltimore P2
Fenway N1 P1
I picked all possible, but 3 P2's. So I don't know about conspiracy. I am just happy to be in building and I will get Philly 1 somehow, (TM or F2F) MSG 2 may be a problem, lol
2010 Newark, MSG I
2013 Wrigley Field, Brooklyn I & II, Hartford, LA I & II, San Diego
2014 Detroit, Moline, St. Paul & Milwaukee
2015 Ed Sullivan Theater/ Central Park
2016 FTL, Miami, Philly 1&2, MSG 1&2, Fenway 1
2017 RRHOF
2018 Seattle I & II, Missoula, Boston I & II
2022 Apollo, MSG, Camden, Nashville & St. Louis
2023 St.P. 1 & 2, Austin 1 & 2
For 10c lottery, every city with multiple shows should be that nobody gets both shows until everyone requesting gets at least one.
Don't start the verified fan registration until 10c lottery is complete. That leaves a better chance (less people registered) for the ones that missed out in the 10c draw.
For example: now I won't need to buy in the verified fan sale since I got 10c tickets but someone who missed out on 10c tickets could get waitlisted.
I agree. I think they were both selectable because all of these shows were based on a template that had multiple tiers, and so for shows with just P1 (no P2) they just hid the P2 option.
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 | Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him.
He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
On the two dates in one city, it should just run like MSG did this year, if you win one, you are out on the other draw. They can do "second" chance draws if they end up with seats they anticipated would go in the lottery not being distributed. But allowing anyone to get two in a system designed to maximize the odds won't work, because some people will only put in for Night 1 or Night 2, because they know that for whatever reason they can't do the other night.
It is the simplest, least problematic answer and the MSG draw this year proved it works. But there will still be people shut out, but it will minimize that some.
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=3652
If number two happened they need to invalidate all the results, unless I missed reading in the rules that one lucky draw gets you into four notoriously difficult and expensive shows. Otherwise that’s a basic lottery error and certain fans are unfairly winning tickets worth thousands from a possible PJ draw error. I doubt they’d own up to that, but transparency will be nice. Anyway I am prepared to pay $700 for msg instead.
I did a basic probability analysis last nite on this topic with some simple assumptions (past odds for NE shows and # tickets available) - hitting the four toughest NE shows with two GAs, would yield an expected number of winners as less than one. If fan claims on here are true, we have seen many win these four NE shows one one family did it twice. We don’t need to ponder if they did this or that, it’s easy to calculate the chances of seeing results like this with basic mathematics. I call on PJ to share their math with us, if they want to contend their ticketing rules are superior to TMs normal process. We have more than enough data.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows with two GAs in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
Why? It's not the way I'd run a lottery, but it's a valid method.
Unless I missed it, nothing in the rules states how the lottery would be run. We all assumed it would be similar to the way priority-based draws have been done in the past, but there's nothing to indicate that would be the case this time.
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 | Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him.
He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=3652