I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
I just want to say that I'm enjoying your posts even more than I already would be by imagining them in Larry David's voice. I'm sticking around this thread because I feel like we're getting close to your cursing-out-Siri moment from this season's first episode and I don't want to miss it.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
I just want to say that I'm enjoying your posts even more than I already would be by imagining them in Larry David's voice. I'm sticking around this thread because I feel like we're getting close to your cursing-out-Siri moment from this season's first episode and I don't want to miss it.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
None of this is standard mathematics, that is the problem everyone is suffering from here. You are applying the old system that showed statistical probability of outcomes to a system that dismissed prioritization. The only shows that were stated as such were MSG. You wanted the law of statistical probability to apply to something that was devoid of that built in feature. So naturally things were skewed. I am not arguing against that better guardrails could be in place. But it absolutely is demonstrably possible given the results that people could win multiple and people could get shut out. The how and why, you are never going to know so it is a worthless exercise.
I am trying to understand your point. Let’s say there are 15,000 fans applying for a chance for either msg or Philly for every batch of tickets (let’s say ga or p1) and there are 1000 tickets available for each batch. there is a 7% chance of doing that whether or not we rank priority of shows. To win twice, the chance = 7%*7% (half of one percent).
to do that four times is like winning millions in the state lotto. A tiny tiny fraction of one percent. To see so many win lottery odds like that is astounding, whether or not we rank shows. Basic math is not worthless. It’s science, provable and measurable.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
None of this is standard mathematics, that is the problem everyone is suffering from here. You are applying the old system that showed statistical probability of outcomes to a system that dismissed prioritization. The only shows that were stated as such were MSG. You wanted the law of statistical probability to apply to something that was devoid of that built in feature. So naturally things were skewed. I am not arguing against that better guardrails could be in place. But it absolutely is demonstrably possible given the results that people could win multiple and people could get shut out. The how and why, you are never going to know so it is a worthless exercise.
I am trying to understand your point. Let’s say there are 15,000 fans applying for a chance for either msg or Philly for every batch of tickets (let’s say ga or p1) and there are 1000 tickets available for each batch. there is a 7% chance of doing that whether or not we rank priority of shows. To win twice, the chance = 7%*7% (half of one percent).
to do that four times is like winning millions in the state lotto. A tiny tiny fraction of one percent. To see so many win lottery odds like that is astounding, whether or not we rank shows. Basic math is not worthless. It’s science, provable and measurable.
Were equating getting 4 GA tickets to winning the state lottery now?
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
None of this is standard mathematics, that is the problem everyone is suffering from here. You are applying the old system that showed statistical probability of outcomes to a system that dismissed prioritization. The only shows that were stated as such were MSG. You wanted the law of statistical probability to apply to something that was devoid of that built in feature. So naturally things were skewed. I am not arguing against that better guardrails could be in place. But it absolutely is demonstrably possible given the results that people could win multiple and people could get shut out. The how and why, you are never going to know so it is a worthless exercise.
I am trying to understand your point. Let’s say there are 15,000 fans applying for a chance for either msg or Philly for every batch of tickets (let’s say ga or p1) and there are 1000 tickets available for each batch. there is a 7% chance of doing that whether or not we rank priority of shows. To win twice, the chance = 7%*7% (half of one percent).
to do that four times is like winning millions in the state lotto. A tiny tiny fraction of one percent. To see so many win lottery odds like that is astounding, whether or not we rank shows. Basic math is not worthless. It’s science, provable and measurable.
Were equating getting 4 GA tickets to winning the state lottery now?
instead of trying to reinvent math, why don’t you try a simple odds calculation based on historical facts we know to be fairly accurate, instead of shutting down the science.?
Are you seriously suggesting the PJ ticket lottery is not a lottery? Go ahead and give this go…
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
I’m curious if Mr. David is willing to give the lottery wiki page a try, or are we going to be discussing next whether or not the PJ ticket lottery is not a lottery.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
None of this is standard mathematics, that is the problem everyone is suffering from here. You are applying the old system that showed statistical probability of outcomes to a system that dismissed prioritization. The only shows that were stated as such were MSG. You wanted the law of statistical probability to apply to something that was devoid of that built in feature. So naturally things were skewed. I am not arguing against that better guardrails could be in place. But it absolutely is demonstrably possible given the results that people could win multiple and people could get shut out. The how and why, you are never going to know so it is a worthless exercise.
I am trying to understand your point. Let’s say there are 15,000 fans applying for a chance for either msg or Philly for every batch of tickets (let’s say ga or p1) and there are 1000 tickets available for each batch. there is a 7% chance of doing that whether or not we rank priority of shows. To win twice, the chance = 7%*7% (half of one percent).
to do that four times is like winning millions in the state lotto. A tiny tiny fraction of one percent. To see so many win lottery odds like that is astounding, whether or not we rank shows. Basic math is not worthless. It’s science, provable and measurable.
Were equating getting 4 GA tickets to winning the state lottery now?
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto.
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
"Yeah, it's called a lottery and it is completely reasonable to expect you would get the exact same seats for both shows. Thinking anything otherwise is just wrong on your part. It is statistically possible and to even question these results is asinine."
-mookieblalock & BF25394 (probably)
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
Here is what was close to the final odds in 2020 on getting GA/reserved Toronto: 32/99 Ottawa: 56/99 Quebec City: 79/99 Hamilton: 40/99 Baltimore: 14/65 NYC: 9/57 Nashville: 21/99 St Louis: 22/99 OKC: 63/99 Denver: 21/99 Glendale: 36/99 San Diego: 34/99 LA: 28/99; 26/99 Oak: 30/99; 37/99
Slightly different system since it allowed for priority, but could be used to get an idea at least. And based on the results we know that this years odds would likely be even less because there were people getting shut out of Cali shows when before there was almost 100% chance of getting reserved tix. There are more NE shows this yea but my guess is Baltimore,NYC,Philly GA prob still finished somewhere in the 8-10% chance of GA each range.
Thanks for sharing. 9/57 seems very high (too good) for NY from experience, reading the boards in the past and how some members claim to never have won msg in decades.
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
Here is what was close to the final odds in 2020 on getting GA/reserved Toronto: 32/99 Ottawa: 56/99 Quebec City: 79/99 Hamilton: 40/99 Baltimore: 14/65 NYC: 9/57 Nashville: 21/99 St Louis: 22/99 OKC: 63/99 Denver: 21/99 Glendale: 36/99 San Diego: 34/99 LA: 28/99; 26/99 Oak: 30/99; 37/99
Slightly different system since it allowed for priority, but could be used to get an idea at least. And based on the results we know that this years odds would likely be even less because there were people getting shut out of Cali shows when before there was almost 100% chance of getting reserved tix. There are more NE shows this yea but my guess is Baltimore,NYC,Philly GA prob still finished somewhere in the 8-10% chance of GA each range.
Thanks for sharing. 9/57 seems very high (too good) for NY from experience, reading the boards in the past and how some members claim to never have won msg in decades.
TM odds were fucked. Plenty of people lost out with 99% odds even those that was just a placeholder and should of said 100%. I remember people in 2020 defending ticketmaster saying all of those 99% were in fact real and that some people are bound to lose out. After all its just a lotto!
What made sense for back then was TM did odds for first priority alone.
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
Yes I know how probabilities work.
But do you know how they work in the imperial system?
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
Yes I know how probabilities work.
There always has to be that guy that says Ya but lol.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.
Let’s go back to the zapruder film, eh the p1 and ga/p1 are two categories doubling our chances.
If TM did the draw this way, It is completely wrong based on the ten club info page. If TM gave p1 and ga two separate chances to win p1, they did the draw wrong and they did not follow PJs rules
Ten club rules,
In most venues, Ten Club reserved seated tickets will be available in two price levels. You can request both tiers to increase your chance of getting tickets.
Both tiers specifically means two reserved seated price levels, p one and p two. Request BOTH tiers to increase your chances. There is no mention of standing tickets in the rules. Including the ga/p1 category would be three categories and would violate the use of the word BOTH.
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
Yes I know how probabilities work.
What is the probability that you really do? 😁
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
Yes I know how probabilities work.
But do you know how they work in the imperial system?
Man I hate the imperial system, I've lived in the US for 25 years and I still hate it so much.
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto.
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
Wow, almost impossible
The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
Yes I know how probabilities work.
But do you know how they work in the imperial system?
Man I hate the imperial system, I've lived in the US for 25 years and I still hate it so much.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.
With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.
Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.
DING DING DING DING
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here
Okay. whatever you say.
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.
You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto.
not even close, state lottery odds are much worse
I agree with that
Of course you do.
Yes because it's factual
I’m beginning to doubt your background in applied mathematics.
Comments
I am trying to understand your point. Let’s say there are 15,000 fans applying for a chance for either msg or Philly for every batch of tickets (let’s say ga or p1) and there are 1000 tickets available for each batch. there is a 7% chance of doing that whether or not we rank priority of shows. To win twice, the chance = 7%*7% (half of one percent).
to do that four times is like winning millions in the state lotto. A tiny tiny fraction of one percent. To see so many win lottery odds like that is astounding, whether or not we rank shows. Basic math is not worthless. It’s science, provable and measurable.
instead of trying to reinvent math, why don’t you try a simple odds calculation based on historical facts we know to be fairly accurate, instead of shutting down the science.?
-mookieblalock & BF25394 (probably)
What made sense for back then was TM did odds for first priority alone.
Ten club rules,
In most venues, Ten Club reserved seated tickets will be available in two price levels. You can request both tiers to increase your chance of getting tickets.
Both tiers specifically means two reserved seated price levels, p one and p two. Request BOTH tiers to increase your chances. There is no mention of standing tickets in the rules. Including the ga/p1 category would be three categories and would violate the use of the word BOTH.
not even close, state lottery odds are much worse