Oh I see I thought everyone was generally mad- yall are mad you didn't get GA- I'm just really grateful I got what I chose this time! I actually didn't look or see an indication of my seating assignment guess that would indicate (judging from these comments I breezed through) I'm NOT GA- All good fulfilled my bucketlist being GA MSG ONCE and I'm old - sorry the consensus is unhappiness I'm THRILLED- I'm sure you will get what you want here
As someone who does not feel any sting at all for losing my one very long shot at Philly 1, I have read a few comments in this thread that have convinced me to finally drop out of 10C altogether.
As some have pointed out, that with face value F2F available now, it's not worth it to pay for the so-called "privilege" of maybe, just maybe, winning $200 shitty seats. F2F has, for me at least, made Ten Club irrelevant.
Fair take. IF you can get tix via F2F. That hasn't been all that easy IMO
Last tour I put my St. Paul ticket on F2F about two weeks before the show. There were multiple dozens listed, plus there were still many, many seats for general sale through Ticketmaster at that point. I was worried my ticket wouldn't sell. It took about 48 hours for it to be picked up.
I really don't think PJ is in as "high demand" as we here would believe. Certain markets, yes, for sure I would not argue that for the major cities. But they don't sell out everywhere. That could be why they've limited their gigs to select places on this tour. Maybe they don't want to play to empty seats and they know from their own market research where they can't sell out so they're just not going there. Heck, it appears they're now begging club members to go to Jeff's home state of Montana. For some reason they couldn't even give away all their lottery tickets on the first draft. Tell me there wasn't something wrong with that.
Absolutely depends on the market. But your original post was about Philly. Which as you've acknowledged is going to be hard.
As someone who does not feel any sting at all for losing my one very long shot at Philly 1, I have read a few comments in this thread that have convinced me to finally drop out of 10C altogether.
As some have pointed out, that with face value F2F available now, it's not worth it to pay for the so-called "privilege" of maybe, just maybe, winning $200 shitty seats. F2F has, for me at least, made Ten Club irrelevant.
Fair take. IF you can get tix via F2F. That hasn't been all that easy IMO
Last tour I put my St. Paul ticket on F2F about two weeks before the show. There were multiple dozens listed, plus there were still many, many seats for general sale through Ticketmaster at that point. I was worried my ticket wouldn't sell. It took about 48 hours for it to be picked up.
I really don't think PJ is in as "high demand" as we here would believe. Certain markets, yes, for sure I would not argue that for the major cities. But they don't sell out everywhere. That could be why they've limited their gigs to select places on this tour. Maybe they don't want to play to empty seats and they know from their own market research where they can't sell out so they're just not going there. Heck, it appears they're now begging club members to go to Jeff's home state of Montana. For some reason they couldn't even give away all their lottery tickets on the first draft. Tell me there wasn't something wrong with that.
Absolutely depends on the market. But your original post was about Philly. Which as you've acknowledged is going to be hard.
True, but not any harder than the lottery and still just as dependent on luck. Philly is a Saturday night and a four hour drive, the only reason I gave it a try, knowing full well I wasn't going to win it. I still play MegaMillions every now and then, too. I'll see how I feel late August.
I am the author of this thread. Feel free to take your shots at me.
Re:your standard comment at the bottom of each post-about the U2 shirted fan-Holy F*#k that was amazing-yes it sure was. That one hourish PJ set, our first live just blew us away at Aloha Stadium but we did know most of songs and who we were seeing. (Interesting thread sorry if I’ve gone off topic)
A great PJ set is never off topic!! ;-) Yes, they did A LOT in a pretty short set and it was amazing. Listening to the whole stadium sing when they did Hawaii 78 was just stunning. Loved that set!
"Holly f**k, that was so amazing, I just forgot who I came here to see!!" - Courtesy of the guy in the U2 t-shirt standing next to me in Aloha Stadium, Post PJ
Oh I see I thought everyone was generally mad- yall are mad you didn't get GA- I'm just really grateful I got what I chose this time! I actually didn't look or see an indication of my seating assignment guess that would indicate (judging from these comments I breezed through) I'm NOT GA- All good fulfilled my bucketlist being GA MSG ONCE and I'm old - sorry the consensus is unhappiness I'm THRILLED- I'm sure you will get what you want here
I started the thread, and I'm not mad. Got tickets, even got some GA tickets. I just noticed, what seemed like an inordinate amount of Double GA tickets. There also seemed to be a lot of double shut outs for one city. So, it's not just GA. They are just observations... but ones that apparently A LOT of people have also noticed. We're just talking about it.
Still thrilled to get tickets, still thrilled to go to the show. Just trying to figure out what led to the marked difference this time around.
Post edited by LukinTimer on
"Holly f**k, that was so amazing, I just forgot who I came here to see!!" - Courtesy of the guy in the U2 t-shirt standing next to me in Aloha Stadium, Post PJ
Oh I see I thought everyone was generally mad- yall are mad you didn't get GA- I'm just really grateful I got what I chose this time! I actually didn't look or see an indication of my seating assignment guess that would indicate (judging from these comments I breezed through) I'm NOT GA- All good fulfilled my bucketlist being GA MSG ONCE and I'm old - sorry the consensus is unhappiness I'm THRILLED- I'm sure you will get what you want here
Oh I'm mad, my wife and I both went 0-4 for Seattle and Philly yet some other people hit all 4 shows, including some who hit GA to all.
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
It's 12%, and that percentage is extremely high for double GA
Thats literally 1/8 people
Not counting people who chose not to answer the poll so as not to undermine the system that helped them
You're giving people way too much credit for being Machiavellian. I didn't answer the poll because multiple answers applied to me and I could only choose one option in the poll.
Just answer it in the best way you can. You hit GA for 2 nights in 2 different cities, no? Clearly, answer the double GA.
No, I hit GA for two nights in two cities and P1 for two nights in two other cities.
So 8 shows - 4 GA and 4 P1 ? Congrats!!
Actually, ten shows. 5 GA and 5 P1. For once, everything came up Milhouse.
(Flinches in anticipation of blows raining down...)
Thrillho!
Manchester 04.06.00, Leeds 25.08.06, Wembley 18.06.07, Dusseldorf 21.06.07, Shepherds Bush 11.08.09, Manchester 17.08.09, Adelaide 17.11.09, Melbourne 20.11.09, Sydney 22.11.09, Brisbane 25.11.09, MSG1 20.05.10, MSG2 21.05.10, Dublin 22.06.10, Belfast 23.06.10, London 25.06.10, Long Beach 06.07.11 (EV), Los Angeles 08.07.11 (EV), Toronto 11.09.11, Toronto 12.09.11, Ottawa 14.09.11, Hamilton 14.09.11, Manchester 20.06.12, Manchester 21.06.12, Amsterdam 26.06.2012, Amsterdam 27.06.2012, Berlin 04.07.12, Berlin 05.07.12, Stockholm 07.07.12, Oslo 09.07.12, Copenhagen 10.07.12, Manchester 28.07.12 (EV), Brooklyn 18.10.13, Brooklyn 19.10.13, Philly 21.10.13, Philly 22.10.13, San Diego 21.11.13, LA 23.11.13, LA 24.11.13, Oakland 26.11.13, Portland 29.11.13, Spokane 30.11.13, Calgary 02.12.13, Vancouver 04.12.13, Seattle 06.12.13, Trieste 22.06.14, Vienna 25.06.14, Berlin 26.06.14, Stockholm 28.06.14, Leeds 08.07.14, Philly 28.04.16, Philly 28.04.16, MSG1 01.05.16, MSG2 02.05.16
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
No one got 4 GA's through the previous system with priority. Something happened with the double GA's in 2 show cities. You should not see this many double GA's over splits, the sample size is big enough to note this.
My friend got four GAs in the 2020 lottery.
That theoretically wasn't possible. Either it glitched, didn't work as advertised, or he somehow bought them.
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
No one got 4 GA's through the previous system with priority. Something happened with the double GA's in 2 show cities. You should not see this many double GA's over splits, the sample size is big enough to note this.
My friend got four GAs in the 2020 lottery.
That theoretically wasn't possible. Either it glitched, didn't work as advertised, or he somehow bought them.
Only a couple of shows made it to the second round for GA in 2020. Even those that did like Quebec City there was only a small amount of wins and plenty of losses. I call bullshit on 4 GA wins on the same account.
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
No one got 4 GA's through the previous system with priority. Something happened with the double GA's in 2 show cities. You should not see this many double GA's over splits, the sample size is big enough to note this.
My friend got four GAs in the 2020 lottery.
That theoretically wasn't possible. Either it glitched, didn't work as advertised, or he somehow bought them.
Only a couple of shows made it to the second round for GA in 2020. Even those that did like Quebec City there was only a small amount of wins and plenty of losses. I call bullshit on 4 GA wins on the same account.
The add on shows and redraws in 2022 were more favorable because a lot of people were still uncomfortable with committing to travel. The way that tour ended up I was able to try to add on Quebec and Ottawa and also put in for Vegas.
I got GA for Quebec, seated for Ottawa, GA for Vegas. I dropped the ball on f2f for Ottawa GA. The 2023 and 2024 shows have had a bunch more interest.
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
"I'm a lucky man, to count on both hands the [shows I've done]. Some folks just have one, others they got none..."
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 |
Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him. He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
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on2legs
Standing in the Jersey rain… Posts: 14,601
It would seem very fair if you made a limit of one show for any cities with multiple nights. But let people still out in for both and if there are still tickets available after all requests are awarded for both shows then you can randomly backfill the remaining requests for a second night.
1996: Randall's Island 2 1998: East Rutherford | MSG 1 & 2 2000: Cincinnati | Columbus | Jones Beach 1, 2, & 3 | Boston 1 | Camden 1 & 2 2003: Philadelphia | Uniondale | MSG 1 & 2 | Holmdel 2005: Atlantic City 1 2006: Camden 1 | East Rutherford 1 & 2 2008: Camden 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Newark (EV) 2009: Philadelphia 1, 2 & 4 2010: Newark | MSG 1 & 2 2011: Toronto 1 2013: Wrigley Field | Brooklyn 2 | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore 2015: Central Park 2016: Philadelphia 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Fenway Park 2 | MSG (TOTD) 2017: Brooklyn (RnR HOF) 2020: MSG | Asbury Park2021: Asbury Park 2022: MSG | Camden | Nashville 2024: MSG 1 & 2 (#50) | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore
It would seem very fair if you made a limit of one show for any cities with multiple nights. But let people still out in for both and if there are still tickets available after all requests are awarded for both shows then you can randomly backfill the remaining requests for a second night.
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
We could work backwards using confirmation numbers (as you or someone else suggested), I bet, but it'd be tedious and at this point water under the bridge. I agree that it's either #2 or 3, but like others I was expecting each seating choice, each show to be randomized and I was not expecting the results I got. This isn't really hard to do - western states like Wyoming handle these types of lotteries for hunting every year, and I see very little bitching there.
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
Can’t be #2, as I registered for Balt, both Philly and both MSG. I won MSG2, so I went 1 for 5, though only eligible for 4 of those shows.
I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
Can’t be #2, as I registered for Balt, both Philly and both MSG. I won MSG2, so I went 1 for 5, though only eligible for 4 of those shows.
If they did MSG night 1 first you were eligible for all five though. What order they actually did MSG is unknown but if you go off of charges and emails you lost night 1.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either
Bingo!!! @mpedone - I think I was VERY clearly option #3 for the double city US shows.
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
I do think there was something off with the GA draw this time around. I don't know what, and I don't think 10c or PJ management had anything to do with it - other than perhaps not working with their vendor (TM) closely enough on testing and quality control.
I do think there was something off with the GA draw this time around. I don't know what, and I don't think 10c or PJ management had anything to do with it - other than perhaps not working with their vendor (TM) closely enough on testing and quality control.
Yes! I love this take. I'm just not sure it was GA exclusive.
Something was done differently with the Vancouver lottery and the US dual city lottery.
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
Can’t be #2, as I registered for Balt, both Philly and both MSG. I won MSG2, so I went 1 for 5, though only eligible for 4 of those shows.
Unless they treated both MSG nights as one show. Let's say the only shows were Baltimore, Philly, MSG1, and MSG2. People put in for all four. The first numbers come up and get Balt, Philly, and MSG1. As the shows sell out, people start getting Balt, Philly, and MSG2. Balt sells out because it's smaller, then Philly, and some get just MSG2.
This is also the same way that merch works, right, just with randomization (which is kind of how it works inside arenas at a lot of shows, where people don't so much queue up as blob up). Someone gets to the seller, buys what they want and moves on. Limit of two items each, but they can buy whatever they want.
"I'm a lucky man, to count on both hands the [shows I've done]. Some folks just have one, others they got none..."
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 |
Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him. He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
We could work backwards using confirmation numbers (as you or someone else suggested), I bet, but it'd be tedious and at this point water under the bridge. I agree that it's either #2 or 3, but like others I was expecting each seating choice, each show to be randomized and I was not expecting the results I got. This isn't really hard to do - western states like Wyoming handle these types of lotteries for hunting every year, and I see very little bitching there.
If anyone wants to compile a list of confirmation numbers and shows (as well as unfulfilled requests), I would love to take a crack at playing with that data.
"I'm a lucky man, to count on both hands the [shows I've done]. Some folks just have one, others they got none..."
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 |
Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him. He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
We could work backwards using confirmation numbers (as you or someone else suggested), I bet, but it'd be tedious and at this point water under the bridge. I agree that it's either #2 or 3, but like others I was expecting each seating choice, each show to be randomized and I was not expecting the results I got. This isn't really hard to do - western states like Wyoming handle these types of lotteries for hunting every year, and I see very little bitching there.
If anyone wants to compile a list of confirmation numbers and shows (as well as unfulfilled requests), I would love to take a crack at playing with that data.
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
We could work backwards using confirmation numbers (as you or someone else suggested), I bet, but it'd be tedious and at this point water under the bridge. I agree that it's either #2 or 3, but like others I was expecting each seating choice, each show to be randomized and I was not expecting the results I got. This isn't really hard to do - western states like Wyoming handle these types of lotteries for hunting every year, and I see very little bitching there.
I put in for all levels of seating for both Chicago shows. I got N1 seating and nothing for N2. How could that happen if #2 or #3 were occuring?
Would you be saying that my entry got picked but by the time I was picked there were no N2 tickets left but there were N1 so I got N1 and not N2? I personally just think it was a lottery and luck of the draw.
I do think there was something off with the GA draw this time around. I don't know what, and I don't think 10c or PJ management had anything to do with it - other than perhaps not working with their vendor (TM) closely enough on testing and quality control.
Yes! I love this take. I'm just not sure it was GA exclusive.
Something was done differently with the Vancouver lottery and the US dual city lottery.
Funny thing with Vancouver: In 2013 I was injured and so put seats as my #1 priority and still got GA. 2024 I want GA and get P1 seats🤷♂️ 😆
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
^^^^^^ This directly above. I have never seen this many doulbe GA, that are repeated. This seems off. Then, if looking around, you see a lot of people were also shut out of both shows for one city. Also, in very high numbers. It appears to be a new and weird pattern, specific to the recent draw.
There’s a poll on the front page that doesn’t line up with any of your cherry picked anecdotal evidence. Something like 8% of people got double GA in the same city. 92% didn’t.
Speaking of cherry picking, yet another reminder that the root complaint is not strictly regarding GA. It is about the percentage of people receiving the exact same choice for show 2 in city x as they did for show 1. Regardless of what Jimmy got drawn (or denied) for LA, he was (almost) automatically going to get the same selection for night 2 in LA.
This is the one example I saw where someone got a N2 GA after a N1 P1. I'm sure there are others, but there should be a lot more 'splits' than 'sames' especially with GA in cities with 2 shows. Something is funky with the double GA's in 2 show US cities (and maybe doubles in general).
But if there is a glitch like you're describing then this guy should not have pulled these seats.
I threw out one theory on why there are so many double GA's, and yes, this goes against that. It doesn't change that there are way too many GA/GA's being reported vs P1/GA (or GA/P1) on 2 show US cities. It shouldn't be anywhere close to 50/50 if it truly was a totally separate draw for each show.
You're drawing conclusions from an incomplete amount of data. It's all anecdotal. And you're dismissing the data that doesn't fit your conclusion.
.. Me: 1/5 Balt - denied Philly 1 - denied Philly 2 - denied MSG 1- denied MSG 2 - eligible for draw since I lost n1, won GA
the above is not anecdotal. I changed the names, it’s not me for sure, the first one is what we’d expect for such in demand cities, 1 for 4 (msg counts as one), but the one win is a huge one, msg GA. Notoriously difficult.
then the spouse goes four for four in the four toughest draws? which has to be a tiny fraction of one percent (assuming a 10-20% chance to win one NE Show)
then remaining two family members go four for five, which on its own is way under one percent. I left off their friend, who was one for two, not bad.
its very possible we are being toyed with, because to have all these under one percent hits in the same family… time to go to Vegas, baby.
(edit, there were many like this, but this was the big one)
The original post also had someone who was 1-for-2 as you note. I see five people whose success rates were 100, 100, 67, 50 and 20. It's not a perfect distribution, but it's a pretty broad distribution especially for such a small sample size. It's exactly the kind of broad distribution a random draw should generate.
If all those success rates are for the four shows in the high demand NE region, they are all WAY above statistical expectations, based on prior tours.
I am changing my answer to @on2legs - that example of a family’s success is not anecdotal. It is verifiable, if they chose to share the evidence. I am not saying I want them to do that, just that it is provable .
There is someone who hit all this on 1 account Portland Seattle n1 Seattle n2 MSG N2 Philly 1 GA Philly 2 GA Boston 1 GA Boston 2 GA
I believe their only miss was Baltimore
This has happened in the prior tour lotteries. Even with priority people have hit on 10 shows. Check those threads.
Not 10 shows where 7 are high demand. Not GA to 4 high demand shows.
Your complaints mirror the complaints from every prior tour. I get the sting of being shut out. I've been there on prior tours and Ed solo tours. And I've never won GA for any show ever. Win some. Lose some.
Except they don't, in previous tours if wouldn't have been possible to win GA both nights in Philly on 1 account. It wouldn't have been possible to win MSG+ both Philly nights and both Seattle nights om one account.
If you played your entry correctly you could hit it big, sure; but usually this meant hitting a bunch of less in demand shows. Not 5 shows in the northeast+ 2 in Seattle in one drawing
Some people refuse to consider alternatives to their way of thinking. They’ve seen winners post going five for five in Vegas or LA or London or wherever. They are not willing to pause for a second and realize how much more difficult it is to win tickets in these specific NE cities. It’s just easy for them to say, I’ve seen this before
They’d rather just chalk it up to complaining because it’s easier for them to process than to think specifics about the history of these specific shows/cities
id hope that fans who chose to reply to me pay attention to detail. They should note, not once am I including Fenway in this discussion because that’s a huge venue with two shows. Hitting that twice .probably has better odds
but msg (once) and Philly three for three? Add in tiny venue Baltimore? cmone, that’s gotta be a probability of somewhere around 0.01% and the band should at least be posting odds or giving some visibility since they control how we get tickets
Says the person who keeps saying the same thing in every post.
Here's the possible scenarios:
1) Rigged: Ticketmaster (and/or the Ten Club) rigged the lottery to help newer fans get more tickets, or some other reason
2) Member-by-Member: Ticketmaster selected a member number then assigned them tickets to all shows they registered for
3) City-by-City (but not by show): Ticketmaster started in Portland, picked members at random and assigned tickets. For multi-night shows, they assigned tickets to both in the same level, based on availability.
4) True random show-by-show: For each show, Ticketmaster randomly selected members for each price level.
If anyone truly believes #1, then find a lawyer and go to town.
#2 seems to be what a lot of people are claiming happened.
#3 is also a possibility, and would lead to slightly different results than #2, but similar to what we think we're seeing.
#4 is how we expect the lottery to work, and if it did, either some people got EXTREMELY lucky, or we're not seeing enough results to know.
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
We could work backwards using confirmation numbers (as you or someone else suggested), I bet, but it'd be tedious and at this point water under the bridge. I agree that it's either #2 or 3, but like others I was expecting each seating choice, each show to be randomized and I was not expecting the results I got. This isn't really hard to do - western states like Wyoming handle these types of lotteries for hunting every year, and I see very little bitching there.
I put in for all levels of seating for both Chicago shows. I got N1 seating and nothing for N2. How could that happen if #2 or #3 were occuring?
Would you be saying that my entry got picked but by the time I was picked there were no N2 tickets left but there were N1 so I got N1 and not N2? I personally just think it was a lottery and luck of the draw.
The last part, yes. More people put in for one show vs the other, so there was some lazy way of settling who got tix for that show.
Comments
Still thrilled to get tickets, still thrilled to go to the show. Just trying to figure out what led to the marked difference this time around.
Thrillho!
I got GA for Quebec, seated for Ottawa, GA for Vegas. I dropped the ball on f2f for Ottawa GA. The 2023 and 2024 shows have had a bunch more interest.
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=3652
We don't have enough data to know for sure which of these happened. Nothing in the posts before the lottery really say one way or the other, and I don't expect TM or 10C to tell us. Sitting here discussing hypothetical odds using numbers we don't know based on demand that for a show four years ago under different circumstances is tedious and pointless.
That said, my money is on either #2 or #3, and probably #2, as it feels the closest to the way Ticketmaster seems to work - first come, first served, and it jives with the removal of priority (if you're just going to sell me everything available in my request when my number is picked, there's no need for priority). They picked a member, and gave them all their requests (that still had available tickets). As long as that selection is truly random, there's nothing particularly underhanded about that, but is it fair? Again, that depends on your perspective. If you think the point of the club having tickets is to get as many fans to shows, then, no this is not a good/fair system. If you think the point is just to get tickets to the 10 Club (regardless of how many different members actually get tickets), then it's fine. Not great, but nothing actually wrong with it. No conspiracy, no coding errors, no "impossible" statistical scenarios.
Let me use an analogy: Black Friday sales. Best Buy has a bunch of electronics at decent discounts and decides that Rewards members get in a couple of hours early, and decided to randomize who gets to go in. They could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy one item and put your number back into the pool until you've gotten everything you wanted or they sell out. Or, they could pick numbers at random and let you go in and buy the items you want, then pick the next number. Both are "fair". The first method leads to more people being somewhat happy (though still upset because invariably something they want will be gone). The second leads to some people being happier because they got more stuff and some people being more unhappy because they didn't get anything.
So, yeah, it seems "unfair" that some people got multiple GA shows while others didn't even get tickets, but that doesn't mean that Ticketmaster did anything actionably wrong. It sucks, but it's not personal. It is the luck of the draw. Starting threads about it probably won't change anything. Writing directly to the Ten Club... Probably won't either, but it's worth a shot. Let them know that this system left a lot of fans out in the cold, as it were. I'm not sure what power they have (as I've stated previously, Ticketmaster has won) to change anything, but who knows?
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 | Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him.
He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=3652
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.
LOL its a disease in my family!
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
Something was done differently with the Vancouver lottery and the US dual city lottery.
Unless they treated both MSG nights as one show. Let's say the only shows were Baltimore, Philly, MSG1, and MSG2. People put in for all four. The first numbers come up and get Balt, Philly, and MSG1. As the shows sell out, people start getting Balt, Philly, and MSG2. Balt sells out because it's smaller, then Philly, and some get just MSG2.
This is also the same way that merch works, right, just with randomization (which is kind of how it works inside arenas at a lot of shows, where people don't so much queue up as blob up). Someone gets to the seller, buys what they want and moves on. Limit of two items each, but they can buy whatever they want.
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 | Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him.
He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
If anyone wants to compile a list of confirmation numbers and shows (as well as unfulfilled requests), I would love to take a crack at playing with that data.
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 | Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him.
He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
Would you be saying that my entry got picked but by the time I was picked there were no N2 tickets left but there were N1 so I got N1 and not N2? I personally just think it was a lottery and luck of the draw.