Supply chains and Work shortages

tempo_n_groove

brianlux said:

$24 billion in goods is floating outside California's biggest ports

ARRRRR!  Who's with me?

Send the Somalian Pirates over, it'll be fixed in 1 hr.

jerparker20

I’ve worked in and around workforce/labor for a while, few observations/comments on the labor shortage and contributors:

1. with the increase in wages and available hours, especially in service, hospitality and retail, people who were working 2-3 part-time jobs to make ends meet, are now only having to work one. 

2. A lot of people retired, or retired early.

3. According to an article last week in either WSJ or Forbes (can’t remember which) over 600,000 filings for new business were submitted across the country over the past year. Basically, a number of people decide to start their own business or become consultants.

4. Excessive death rates. COVID permanently removed a few hundred thousand people of working age from the labor pool. Add on the continued increases of “deaths of despair/dying of whiteness/preventable deaths” (ODs, suicide, alcohol, etc…). 

Also, I was not aware that jobs in the cannabis industry are not counted in government labor reports. Not that it’s a large segment of the labor market, but I’m guessing it employs a share people who are not being counted in the numbers.

static111

jerparker20 said:

I’ve worked in and around workforce/labor for a while, few observations/comments on the labor shortage and contributors:

1. with the increase in wages and available hours, especially in service, hospitality and retail, people who were working 2-3 part-time jobs to make ends meet, are now only having to work one. 

2. A lot of people retired, or retired early.

3. According to an article last week in either WSJ or Forbes (can’t remember which) over 600,000 filings for new business were submitted across the country over the past year. Basically, a number of people decide to start their own business or become consultants.

4. Excessive death rates. COVID permanently removed a few hundred thousand people of working age from the labor pool. Add on the continued increases of “deaths of despair/dying of whiteness/preventable deaths” (ODs, suicide, alcohol, etc…). 

Also, I was not aware that jobs in the cannabis industry are not counted in government labor reports. Not that it’s a large segment of the labor market, but I’m guessing it employs a share people who are not being counted in the numbers.

lol what is dying of whiteness?

tempo_n_groove

jerparker20 said:

I’ve worked in and around workforce/labor for a while, few observations/comments on the labor shortage and contributors:

1. with the increase in wages and available hours, especially in service, hospitality and retail, people who were working 2-3 part-time jobs to make ends meet, are now only having to work one. 

2. A lot of people retired, or retired early.

3. According to an article last week in either WSJ or Forbes (can’t remember which) over 600,000 filings for new business were submitted across the country over the past year. Basically, a number of people decide to start their own business or become consultants.

4. Excessive death rates. COVID permanently removed a few hundred thousand people of working age from the labor pool. Add on the continued increases of “deaths of despair/dying of whiteness/preventable deaths” (ODs, suicide, alcohol, etc…). 

Also, I was not aware that jobs in the cannabis industry are not counted in government labor reports. Not that it’s a large segment of the labor market, but I’m guessing it employs a share people who are not being counted in the numbers.

Someone mentioned that most Covid deaths are of older and not the "working class".

Everything else I can agree with.

Meltdown99

static111 said:

jerparker20 said:

I’ve worked in and around workforce/labor for a while, few observations/comments on the labor shortage and contributors:

1. with the increase in wages and available hours, especially in service, hospitality and retail, people who were working 2-3 part-time jobs to make ends meet, are now only having to work one. 

2. A lot of people retired, or retired early.

3. According to an article last week in either WSJ or Forbes (can’t remember which) over 600,000 filings for new business were submitted across the country over the past year. Basically, a number of people decide to start their own business or become consultants.

4. Excessive death rates. COVID permanently removed a few hundred thousand people of working age from the labor pool. Add on the continued increases of “deaths of despair/dying of whiteness/preventable deaths” (ODs, suicide, alcohol, etc…). 

Also, I was not aware that jobs in the cannabis industry are not counted in government labor reports. Not that it’s a large segment of the labor market, but I’m guessing it employs a share people who are not being counted in the numbers.

lol what is dying of whiteness?

Lol.  Well if dying of whiteness is a thing, there goes white privilege.  

RunIntoTheRain

tempo_n_groove said:

Someone mentioned that most Covid deaths are of older and not the "working class".

Everything else I can agree with.

These are the demographics of Texas Covid deaths. The total deaths of 20-69 year olds is 30,826. 46% of the deaths. So, while a lot of older, likely non-working people have died, a significant portion of those that worked died. Apply that % to Worldometers USA deaths as of yesterday and that's 348,610 people no longer alive to work.

To me, there are many reasons for the worker shortage. Deaths being one of them.

dankind

Always go with actual data vs. "someone mentioned...."

Merkin Baller

static111 said:

jerparker20 said:

I’ve worked in and around workforce/labor for a while, few observations/comments on the labor shortage and contributors:

1. with the increase in wages and available hours, especially in service, hospitality and retail, people who were working 2-3 part-time jobs to make ends meet, are now only having to work one. 

2. A lot of people retired, or retired early.

3. According to an article last week in either WSJ or Forbes (can’t remember which) over 600,000 filings for new business were submitted across the country over the past year. Basically, a number of people decide to start their own business or become consultants.

4. Excessive death rates. COVID permanently removed a few hundred thousand people of working age from the labor pool. Add on the continued increases of “deaths of despair/dying of whiteness/preventable deaths” (ODs, suicide, alcohol, etc…). 

Also, I was not aware that jobs in the cannabis industry are not counted in government labor reports. Not that it’s a large segment of the labor market, but I’m guessing it employs a share people who are not being counted in the numbers.

lol what is dying of whiteness?

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/dying-whiteness-jonathan-metzl-podcast-transcript-ncna987671


"So, back in 2015, two Princeton professors, Anne Case and Angus Deaton, wrote a study of midlife mortality for white people, particularly white people without a college degree, and they found it was going way up. In fact, it had been better than African-Americans, and was now 30 percent worse in some cases. Again, what was driving this, what they call deaths of despair, alcohol-induced death, suicide, and particularly opioid overdoses. Something is happening in America, and particularly among white America, that is driving the effect we are seeing of lower life expectancy. And it is a genuine social mystery."

tempo_n_groove

dankind said:

Always go with actual data vs. "someone mentioned...."

The data is right though...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/

tempo_n_groove

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/mortality-overview.htm
75% of deaths were 65 and older according to the CDC.  

Halifax2TheMax

173,622 between the ages of 18-64. Add another 353,083 between the ages of 65-84, some of whom were probably care givers to young children of the working ages and you get an impact. Also, how many of both of these may have been business owners, who after dying from covid, their business shut down? However, I think its more likely that folks re-prioritized their lives and started their own businesses, took one better paying job over 2 or 3 PT or retired early. The 9-5 rat race may very well have been upended. Time will tell. Kids graduating from college in May/June will have options though.

dankind

My wife's place of employment just changed its policy from OK'ing perennial remote work to requiring three days a week in the office. She immediately started applying to other jobs. 

So privileged.

tempo_n_groove

dankind said:

My wife's place of employment just changed its policy from OK'ing perennial remote work to requiring three days a week in the office. She immediately started applying to other jobs. 

So privileged.

Good for her!

tempo_n_groove

Halifax2TheMax said:

173,622 between the ages of 18-64. Add another 353,083 between the ages of 65-84, some of whom were probably care givers to young children of the working ages and you get an impact. Also, how many of both of these may have been business owners, who after dying from covid, their business shut down? However, I think its more likely that folks re-prioritized their lives and started their own businesses, took one better paying job over 2 or 3 PT or retired early. The 9-5 rat race may very well have been upended. Time will tell. Kids graduating from college in May/June will have options though.

Interesting point.  I don't think it has that much baring on the US labor force as a whole though.  That is a very low percentage of the workforce IMO.

It will be interesting to see a model of all this and how it all went down in a few months when someone figured it out.

Something tells me I need to look for more work, lol.

dankind

tempo_n_groove said:

dankind said:

My wife's place of employment just changed its policy from OK'ing perennial remote work to requiring three days a week in the office. She immediately started applying to other jobs. 

So privileged.

Good for her!

I mean, I think her job sucks. (I believe I've noted that here.)

Having said that, I also think her reason for looking elsewhere sucks.

Must be nice, though....

Halifax2TheMax

dankind said:

tempo_n_groove said:

dankind said:

My wife's place of employment just changed its policy from OK'ing perennial remote work to requiring three days a week in the office. She immediately started applying to other jobs. 

So privileged.

Good for her!

I mean, I think her job sucks. (I believe I've noted that here.)

Having said that, I also think her reason for looking elsewhere sucks.

Must be nice, though....

Well, if she works for the Feds or at an organization that receives federal funding, she can be exempt from being fully vaccinated, continue to work, if she works outside the US 100% of the time in addition to religious or immunocompromised exemptions. Could be a ticket out?

Halifax2TheMax

Yea, lets go Brandon!

A-31. Unemployed persons by industry, class of worker, and sex (bls.gov)

Table 1. Job openings levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted (bls.gov)

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Tuesday, October 12, 2021	USDL-21-1830
Technical information:	(202) 691-5870  •  JoltsInfo@bls.gov  •  www.bls.gov/jlt
Media contact:		(202) 691-5902  •  PressOffice@bls.gov

			      JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – AUGUST 2021

The number of job openings declined to 10.4 million on the last business day of August following a 
series high in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 6.3 million 
while total separations were little changed at 6.0 million. Within separations, the quits rate increased to a 
series high of 2.9 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 0.9 percent. This 
release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total 
nonfarm sector, by industry, by four geographic regions, and by establishment size class. 
   
Job Openings

On the last business day of August, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.4 million        
(-659,000) and 6.6 percent, respectively. Job openings decreased in several industries with the largest 
decreases in health care and social assistance (-224,000); accommodation and food services (-178,000); 
and state and local government education (-124,000). Job openings increased in federal government 
(+22,000). The number of job openings decreased in the Northeast and Midwest regions. (See table 1.)

Hires

In August, the number and rate of hires decreased to 6.3 million (-439,000) and 4.3 percent, 
respectively. Hires decreased in accommodation and food services (-240,000) and in state and local 
government education (-160,000). The number of hires decreased in the Midwest region. (See table 2.)

Separations

Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally 
voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of 
workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated 
by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers 
to other locations of the same firm.

In August, the number and rate of total separations were little changed at 6.0 million and 4.1 percent, 
respectively. The total separations level increased in accommodation and food services (+203,000) and 
in state and local government education (+57,000). The total separations level decreased in other 
services (-68,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (-26,000). Total separations 
were little changed in all four regions. (See table 3.)

The number of quits increased in August to 4.3 million (+242,000). The quits rate increased to a series 
high of 2.9 percent. Quits increased in accommodation and food services (+157,000); wholesale trade 
(+26,000); and state and local government education (+25,000). Quits decreased in real estate and rental 
and leasing (-23,000). The number of quits increased in the South and Midwest regions. (See table 4.)

In August, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.3 million and 0.9 
percent, respectively. Layoffs and discharges decreased in other services (-61,000) and in state and local 
government, excluding education (-22,000). Layoffs and discharges increased in state and local 
government education (+19,000). Layoffs and discharges were little changed in all four regions. (See 
table 5.)

The number of other separations edged up in August to 390,000 (+49,000). Other separations increased 
in several industries with the largest increases in state and local government education (+13,000); 
information (+11,000); and durable goods manufacturing (+8,000). The other separations level increased 
in the West region. (See table 6.) 

Net Change in Employment

Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net 
employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of 
hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. 
Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even 
if the hires level is steady or rising.

Over the 12 months ending in August 2021, hires totaled 72.6 million and separations totaled 66.7 
million, yielding a net employment gain of 5.9 million. These totals include workers who may have been 
hired and separated more than once during the year.

Establishment Size Class

In August, the job openings rate decreased in medium establishments with 50-249 employees. The hires 
rate decreased in large establishments with 250-999 employees. The layoffs and discharges rate 
decreased in medium establishments with 50-249 employees. The other separations rate decreased in 
large establishments with 1,000-4,999 employees. For a more in-depth description of the JOLTS 
establishment size class estimates, please visit www.bls.gov/jlt/sizeclassmethodology.htm.

_____________	
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for September 2021 are scheduled to be 
released on Friday, November 12, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

dankind

Halifax2TheMax said:

dankind said:

tempo_n_groove said:

dankind said:

My wife's place of employment just changed its policy from OK'ing perennial remote work to requiring three days a week in the office. She immediately started applying to other jobs. 

So privileged.

Good for her!

I mean, I think her job sucks. (I believe I've noted that here.)

Having said that, I also think her reason for looking elsewhere sucks.

Must be nice, though....

Well, if she works for the Feds or at an organization that receives federal funding, she can be exempt from being fully vaccinated, continue to work, if she works outside the US 100% of the time in addition to religious or immunocompromised exemptions. Could be a ticket out?

Yeah. She's a federally funded health policy wonk. Waste of fucking time, if you ask me.

I would've quit (or been fired) because of the cannabis policy a long time ago. (In fact, she could get fired because of me! )

I would not, however, quit just because my work wants me to (um) go to work. That's weak sauce!

tempo_n_groove

Halifax2TheMax said:

Yea, lets go Brandon!

A-31. Unemployed persons by industry, class of worker, and sex (bls.gov)

Table 1. Job openings levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted (bls.gov)

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Tuesday, October 12, 2021	USDL-21-1830
Technical information:	(202) 691-5870  •  JoltsInfo@bls.gov  •  www.bls.gov/jlt
Media contact:		(202) 691-5902  •  PressOffice@bls.gov

			      JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – AUGUST 2021

The number of job openings declined to 10.4 million on the last business day of August following a 
series high in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 6.3 million 
while total separations were little changed at 6.0 million. Within separations, the quits rate increased to a 
series high of 2.9 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 0.9 percent. This 
release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total 
nonfarm sector, by industry, by four geographic regions, and by establishment size class. 
   
Job Openings

On the last business day of August, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.4 million        
(-659,000) and 6.6 percent, respectively. Job openings decreased in several industries with the largest 
decreases in health care and social assistance (-224,000); accommodation and food services (-178,000); 
and state and local government education (-124,000). Job openings increased in federal government 
(+22,000). The number of job openings decreased in the Northeast and Midwest regions. (See table 1.)

Hires

In August, the number and rate of hires decreased to 6.3 million (-439,000) and 4.3 percent, 
respectively. Hires decreased in accommodation and food services (-240,000) and in state and local 
government education (-160,000). The number of hires decreased in the Midwest region. (See table 2.)

Separations

Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally 
voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of 
workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated 
by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers 
to other locations of the same firm.

In August, the number and rate of total separations were little changed at 6.0 million and 4.1 percent, 
respectively. The total separations level increased in accommodation and food services (+203,000) and 
in state and local government education (+57,000). The total separations level decreased in other 
services (-68,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (-26,000). Total separations 
were little changed in all four regions. (See table 3.)

The number of quits increased in August to 4.3 million (+242,000). The quits rate increased to a series 
high of 2.9 percent. Quits increased in accommodation and food services (+157,000); wholesale trade 
(+26,000); and state and local government education (+25,000). Quits decreased in real estate and rental 
and leasing (-23,000). The number of quits increased in the South and Midwest regions. (See table 4.)

In August, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.3 million and 0.9 
percent, respectively. Layoffs and discharges decreased in other services (-61,000) and in state and local 
government, excluding education (-22,000). Layoffs and discharges increased in state and local 
government education (+19,000). Layoffs and discharges were little changed in all four regions. (See 
table 5.)

The number of other separations edged up in August to 390,000 (+49,000). Other separations increased 
in several industries with the largest increases in state and local government education (+13,000); 
information (+11,000); and durable goods manufacturing (+8,000). The other separations level increased 
in the West region. (See table 6.) 

Net Change in Employment

Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net 
employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of 
hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. 
Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even 
if the hires level is steady or rising.

Over the 12 months ending in August 2021, hires totaled 72.6 million and separations totaled 66.7 
million, yielding a net employment gain of 5.9 million. These totals include workers who may have been 
hired and separated more than once during the year.

Establishment Size Class

In August, the job openings rate decreased in medium establishments with 50-249 employees. The hires 
rate decreased in large establishments with 250-999 employees. The layoffs and discharges rate 
decreased in medium establishments with 50-249 employees. The other separations rate decreased in 
large establishments with 1,000-4,999 employees. For a more in-depth description of the JOLTS 
establishment size class estimates, please visit www.bls.gov/jlt/sizeclassmethodology.htm.

_____________	
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for September 2021 are scheduled to be 
released on Friday, November 12, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

What do they mean by a "separation"?  

if I am reading this right the hiring was higher than actual jobs which means there is a heavy turnover rate?

Halifax2TheMax

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Yea, lets go Brandon!

A-31. Unemployed persons by industry, class of worker, and sex (bls.gov)

Table 1. Job openings levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted (bls.gov)

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Tuesday, October 12, 2021	USDL-21-1830
Technical information:	(202) 691-5870  •  JoltsInfo@bls.gov  •  www.bls.gov/jlt
Media contact:		(202) 691-5902  •  PressOffice@bls.gov

			      JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – AUGUST 2021

The number of job openings declined to 10.4 million on the last business day of August following a 
series high in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 6.3 million 
while total separations were little changed at 6.0 million. Within separations, the quits rate increased to a 
series high of 2.9 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 0.9 percent. This 
release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total 
nonfarm sector, by industry, by four geographic regions, and by establishment size class. 
   
Job Openings

On the last business day of August, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.4 million        
(-659,000) and 6.6 percent, respectively. Job openings decreased in several industries with the largest 
decreases in health care and social assistance (-224,000); accommodation and food services (-178,000); 
and state and local government education (-124,000). Job openings increased in federal government 
(+22,000). The number of job openings decreased in the Northeast and Midwest regions. (See table 1.)

Hires

In August, the number and rate of hires decreased to 6.3 million (-439,000) and 4.3 percent, 
respectively. Hires decreased in accommodation and food services (-240,000) and in state and local 
government education (-160,000). The number of hires decreased in the Midwest region. (See table 2.)

Separations

Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally 
voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of 
workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated 
by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers 
to other locations of the same firm.

In August, the number and rate of total separations were little changed at 6.0 million and 4.1 percent, 
respectively. The total separations level increased in accommodation and food services (+203,000) and 
in state and local government education (+57,000). The total separations level decreased in other 
services (-68,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (-26,000). Total separations 
were little changed in all four regions. (See table 3.)

The number of quits increased in August to 4.3 million (+242,000). The quits rate increased to a series 
high of 2.9 percent. Quits increased in accommodation and food services (+157,000); wholesale trade 
(+26,000); and state and local government education (+25,000). Quits decreased in real estate and rental 
and leasing (-23,000). The number of quits increased in the South and Midwest regions. (See table 4.)

In August, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.3 million and 0.9 
percent, respectively. Layoffs and discharges decreased in other services (-61,000) and in state and local 
government, excluding education (-22,000). Layoffs and discharges increased in state and local 
government education (+19,000). Layoffs and discharges were little changed in all four regions. (See 
table 5.)

The number of other separations edged up in August to 390,000 (+49,000). Other separations increased 
in several industries with the largest increases in state and local government education (+13,000); 
information (+11,000); and durable goods manufacturing (+8,000). The other separations level increased 
in the West region. (See table 6.) 

Net Change in Employment

Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net 
employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of 
hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. 
Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even 
if the hires level is steady or rising.

Over the 12 months ending in August 2021, hires totaled 72.6 million and separations totaled 66.7 
million, yielding a net employment gain of 5.9 million. These totals include workers who may have been 
hired and separated more than once during the year.

Establishment Size Class

In August, the job openings rate decreased in medium establishments with 50-249 employees. The hires 
rate decreased in large establishments with 250-999 employees. The layoffs and discharges rate 
decreased in medium establishments with 50-249 employees. The other separations rate decreased in 
large establishments with 1,000-4,999 employees. For a more in-depth description of the JOLTS 
establishment size class estimates, please visit www.bls.gov/jlt/sizeclassmethodology.htm.

_____________	
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for September 2021 are scheduled to be 
released on Friday, November 12, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

What do they mean by a "separation"?  

if I am reading this right the hiring was higher than actual jobs which means there is a heavy turnover rate?

5.9 million represents new jobs created. Separations were folks leaving existing jobs but a new hire was hired, I believe. People leaving to find better opportunity, found FT work, quit one PT job, all of which someone else stepped into. Also, its holiday seasonal hiring time. Amazon is offering $22.50/hour and a $3K signing bonus. Labor churn.

Have you been to the super market lately? Its mostly "personal" shoppers clogging up the aisles looking at their phones for Amazon and other home grocery delivery services. Pain in the ass.