Supply chains and Work shortages

F Me In The Brain

I am an executive for a technology service firm, supporting multi-location companies across NA, with a large emphasis on Retail.

A few things we are seeing....

• The technology components are f'd.  Major delays on chips mean major delays on all sorts of technology hardware.  Deployments that were planned over the past few years are pushed out.  Deployments or refreshes planned since the pandemic are staggered in their success rates.
• Materials are f'd -- as part of building/remodeling locations for our clients (which there is a significant amount of work scheduled) we run new communications wiring and put in the infrastructure to support technology.  Materials prices have gone up multiple times this year, and are about to go up again, and in some cases the parts are u/a, without a realistic delivery date.  This has significant downstream impact.
• Client health -- retailers are getting busy again, which is great, but as many are experiencing first-hand, the labor shortage is hugely impactful.  Retailers cannot find enough people to do jobs....jobs which finally pay better, jobs with benefits, and jobs that you do not need significant experience or education to gain.  The biggest issue?  The public.  The public behave like a bunch of wild animals and nobody wants to work with them.  They would rather collect from the govt.
• Contingent Labor Force -- charging 50% more than they used to in most areas.  People are not working with you to take the tough jobs so they can have the easy jobs.  Small or tougher jobs are costs 2x right now in many areas.  The technicians are making so much money that they just do not need to take smaller or tougher jobs.  Totally bonkers world.  People who were working hard and making $120,000 a few years ago now are more "Technical Guns for Hire", working fewer hours and making $200,000.

The particular market we work in will not support these different factors without massive increase in rates to the end clients, who almost all provide goods directly to the public.  What does that mean?  The prices are going to go through the roof, soon enough. 
Only so long these companies can bite the bullet.

The wild, wild, worst out there right now.

Many folks are slaying it, right now.  To them, I clap...and say that you need to get while the gettin' is good.

There will be a reckoning, soon enough, though.  Things cannot go the way they are w/o major impact.

tempo_n_groove

F Me In The Brain said:

I am an executive for a technology service firm, supporting multi-location companies across NA, with a large emphasis on Retail.

A few things we are seeing....

• The technology components are f'd.  Major delays on chips mean major delays on all sorts of technology hardware.  Deployments that were planned over the past few years are pushed out.  Deployments or refreshes planned since the pandemic are staggered in their success rates.
• Materials are f'd -- as part of building/remodeling locations for our clients (which there is a significant amount of work scheduled) we run new communications wiring and put in the infrastructure to support technology.  Materials prices have gone up multiple times this year, and are about to go up again, and in some cases the parts are u/a, without a realistic delivery date.  This has significant downstream impact.
• Client health -- retailers are getting busy again, which is great, but as many are experiencing first-hand, the labor shortage is hugely impactful.  Retailers cannot find enough people to do jobs....jobs which finally pay better, jobs with benefits, and jobs that you do not need significant experience or education to gain.  The biggest issue?  The public.  The public behave like a bunch of wild animals and nobody wants to work with them.  They would rather collect from the govt.
• Contingent Labor Force -- charging 50% more than they used to in most areas.  People are not working with you to take the tough jobs so they can have the easy jobs.  Small or tougher jobs are costs 2x right now in many areas.  The technicians are making so much money that they just do not need to take smaller or tougher jobs.  Totally bonkers world.  People who were working hard and making $120,000 a few years ago now are more "Technical Guns for Hire", working fewer hours and making $200,000.

The particular market we work in will not support these different factors without massive increase in rates to the end clients, who almost all provide goods directly to the public.  What does that mean?  The prices are going to go through the roof, soon enough. 
Only so long these companies can bite the bullet.

The wild, wild, worst out there right now.

Many folks are slaying it, right now.  To them, I clap...and say that you need to get while the gettin' is good.

There will be a reckoning, soon enough, though.  Things cannot go the way they are w/o major impact.

Because of the chip shortage Intel is looking to build a superconductor plant here in the US.  That's good but it's a few years out...

This inflation won't be good for me and my salaried position.  No way I'm going to see an increase like there is across the boards...  Might be time to branch out.

As far as the smaller jobs costing more, that has always been there.  Just maybe not on a scale like this now.  Smaller jobs should cost more because they are usually more of a PITA to do and a problem always arises, lol.

tempo_n_groove

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Merkin Baller said:

OnWis97 said:

Here's a thought on why people don't want to go back to work...
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/10/19/1047032996/why-are-so-many-americans-quitting-their-jobs?fbclid=IwAR3P-sK5hgBMGIuHhA6FTuRyOfmot1o-hQpbtWIQyXpivbW3Evx36jcF8E0

I'm probably blessed in my office-work-at-home life but I'm not feeling very many effects. We order a lot of stuff and aside from the occasional random thing seemingly disappearing from grocery store shelves for weeks and a couple of businesses having reduced hours, I'm not noticing much. But then again, I'm in a bubble.

The biggest inconvenience I've had happened yesterday. I decided to call the vet because my dog has some bald spots. I found out yesterday that just about every veterinarian is scheduling out at least four weeks. So I waited a couple hours in vet urgent care and spent an extra $50 for an appointment because I think it might be ringworm (test now pending). But you ask about "...and your surrounding area." and it looks like this is a nationwide problem due in large part to a huge increase in pet ownership during the pandemic.

Hope you don't have to wait long for ivermectin if it is indeed a worm. (thanks Joe Rogan & Alex Jones et al) 


RE: Traffic, more people are on the roads in the Boston area, but I think a lot of people are opting to drive to work as opposed to taking the subway since offices reopened. 

I work in manufacturing, and there are a lot of people panic buying, which isn't helping the supply chain. We're on pace to sell as many as 4X the amount of certain items that we sold last year, the usage has been impossible to anticipate. 

People operating like they did in 2019 (i.e. waiting until the last minute to order product expecting it to be available) are screwed.

It's a different world than it was 2 years ago. 

For the record, we make our product right here, we don't import. 

We have to order materials far in advance now.  It's like 2009-2010 all over again.

I agree with people not using public transport again.

What are you guys making that people are gobbling up?

We have to order way in advance. It's a damn nightmare. On top of that, we've increased our manufacturing wages 5 times to try to attract new workers & it hasn't worked yet. 

Just out of curiosity, what are you offering?  I'm curious if it's too low of pay to entice people?

I thought $20 for a hospitality job in AC was pretty good.  Doing fast food or a restaurant?  not so much.

It depends on their experience/skill set in manufacturing. It's anywhere from $20-30/hr + benefits. 

For me in my 20's that is fair.  Now? Not so much.

Meltdown99

The way to solve the labour shortage is through better pay and benefits…

tempo_n_groove

Meltdown99 said:

The way to solve the labour shortage is through better pay and benefits…

I'm very curious if that is what would be a fix hence starting this thread.

For the restaurant and food industries absolutely.  Everything else, we will see.

mfc2006

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Merkin Baller said:

OnWis97 said:

Here's a thought on why people don't want to go back to work...
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/10/19/1047032996/why-are-so-many-americans-quitting-their-jobs?fbclid=IwAR3P-sK5hgBMGIuHhA6FTuRyOfmot1o-hQpbtWIQyXpivbW3Evx36jcF8E0

I'm probably blessed in my office-work-at-home life but I'm not feeling very many effects. We order a lot of stuff and aside from the occasional random thing seemingly disappearing from grocery store shelves for weeks and a couple of businesses having reduced hours, I'm not noticing much. But then again, I'm in a bubble.

The biggest inconvenience I've had happened yesterday. I decided to call the vet because my dog has some bald spots. I found out yesterday that just about every veterinarian is scheduling out at least four weeks. So I waited a couple hours in vet urgent care and spent an extra $50 for an appointment because I think it might be ringworm (test now pending). But you ask about "...and your surrounding area." and it looks like this is a nationwide problem due in large part to a huge increase in pet ownership during the pandemic.

Hope you don't have to wait long for ivermectin if it is indeed a worm. (thanks Joe Rogan & Alex Jones et al) 


RE: Traffic, more people are on the roads in the Boston area, but I think a lot of people are opting to drive to work as opposed to taking the subway since offices reopened. 

I work in manufacturing, and there are a lot of people panic buying, which isn't helping the supply chain. We're on pace to sell as many as 4X the amount of certain items that we sold last year, the usage has been impossible to anticipate. 

People operating like they did in 2019 (i.e. waiting until the last minute to order product expecting it to be available) are screwed.

It's a different world than it was 2 years ago. 

For the record, we make our product right here, we don't import. 

We have to order materials far in advance now.  It's like 2009-2010 all over again.

I agree with people not using public transport again.

What are you guys making that people are gobbling up?

We have to order way in advance. It's a damn nightmare. On top of that, we've increased our manufacturing wages 5 times to try to attract new workers & it hasn't worked yet. 

Just out of curiosity, what are you offering?  I'm curious if it's too low of pay to entice people?

I thought $20 for a hospitality job in AC was pretty good.  Doing fast food or a restaurant?  not so much.

It depends on their experience/skill set in manufacturing. It's anywhere from $20-30/hr + benefits. 

For me in my 20's that is fair.  Now? Not so much.

$20/hr is with zero experience, and it adjusts from there. Believe me, I wish we could offer more, but it's not up to me & production isn't even my department within the company. The cost of living in the KC area is decent, but I would rather we start a bit higher. We may have to if the latest increases don't have decent results. 

Our manufacturing lines aren't heavy-labor intensive at all, either. These are primarily entry-level positions or just above. 

Meltdown99

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Merkin Baller said:

OnWis97 said:

Here's a thought on why people don't want to go back to work...
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/10/19/1047032996/why-are-so-many-americans-quitting-their-jobs?fbclid=IwAR3P-sK5hgBMGIuHhA6FTuRyOfmot1o-hQpbtWIQyXpivbW3Evx36jcF8E0

I'm probably blessed in my office-work-at-home life but I'm not feeling very many effects. We order a lot of stuff and aside from the occasional random thing seemingly disappearing from grocery store shelves for weeks and a couple of businesses having reduced hours, I'm not noticing much. But then again, I'm in a bubble.

The biggest inconvenience I've had happened yesterday. I decided to call the vet because my dog has some bald spots. I found out yesterday that just about every veterinarian is scheduling out at least four weeks. So I waited a couple hours in vet urgent care and spent an extra $50 for an appointment because I think it might be ringworm (test now pending). But you ask about "...and your surrounding area." and it looks like this is a nationwide problem due in large part to a huge increase in pet ownership during the pandemic.

Hope you don't have to wait long for ivermectin if it is indeed a worm. (thanks Joe Rogan & Alex Jones et al) 


RE: Traffic, more people are on the roads in the Boston area, but I think a lot of people are opting to drive to work as opposed to taking the subway since offices reopened. 

I work in manufacturing, and there are a lot of people panic buying, which isn't helping the supply chain. We're on pace to sell as many as 4X the amount of certain items that we sold last year, the usage has been impossible to anticipate. 

People operating like they did in 2019 (i.e. waiting until the last minute to order product expecting it to be available) are screwed.

It's a different world than it was 2 years ago. 

For the record, we make our product right here, we don't import. 

We have to order materials far in advance now.  It's like 2009-2010 all over again.

I agree with people not using public transport again.

What are you guys making that people are gobbling up?

We have to order way in advance. It's a damn nightmare. On top of that, we've increased our manufacturing wages 5 times to try to attract new workers & it hasn't worked yet. 

Just out of curiosity, what are you offering?  I'm curious if it's too low of pay to entice people?

I thought $20 for a hospitality job in AC was pretty good.  Doing fast food or a restaurant?  not so much.

It depends on their experience/skill set in manufacturing. It's anywhere from $20-30/hr + benefits. 

For me in my 20's that is fair.  Now? Not so much.

$20/hr is with zero experience, and it adjusts from there. Believe me, I wish we could offer more, but it's not up to me & production isn't even my department within the company. The cost of living in the KC area is decent, but I would rather we start a bit higher. We may have to if the latest increases don't have decent results. 

Our manufacturing lines aren't heavy-labor intensive at all, either. These are primarily entry-level positions or just above. 

20s is a fair starting wage.

Meltdown99

tempo_n_groove said:

Meltdown99 said:

The way to solve the labour shortage is through better pay and benefits…

I'm very curious if that is what would be a fix hence starting this thread.

For the restaurant and food industries absolutely.  Everything else, we will see.

I semi retired because the wages sucked and employers ask to much out of their employee’s…so I said fuck it.  I still apply for jobs…but my starting wage is 22…anything less, forget it.

tempo_n_groove

Meltdown99 said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Merkin Baller said:

OnWis97 said:

Here's a thought on why people don't want to go back to work...
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/10/19/1047032996/why-are-so-many-americans-quitting-their-jobs?fbclid=IwAR3P-sK5hgBMGIuHhA6FTuRyOfmot1o-hQpbtWIQyXpivbW3Evx36jcF8E0

I'm probably blessed in my office-work-at-home life but I'm not feeling very many effects. We order a lot of stuff and aside from the occasional random thing seemingly disappearing from grocery store shelves for weeks and a couple of businesses having reduced hours, I'm not noticing much. But then again, I'm in a bubble.

The biggest inconvenience I've had happened yesterday. I decided to call the vet because my dog has some bald spots. I found out yesterday that just about every veterinarian is scheduling out at least four weeks. So I waited a couple hours in vet urgent care and spent an extra $50 for an appointment because I think it might be ringworm (test now pending). But you ask about "...and your surrounding area." and it looks like this is a nationwide problem due in large part to a huge increase in pet ownership during the pandemic.

Hope you don't have to wait long for ivermectin if it is indeed a worm. (thanks Joe Rogan & Alex Jones et al) 


RE: Traffic, more people are on the roads in the Boston area, but I think a lot of people are opting to drive to work as opposed to taking the subway since offices reopened. 

I work in manufacturing, and there are a lot of people panic buying, which isn't helping the supply chain. We're on pace to sell as many as 4X the amount of certain items that we sold last year, the usage has been impossible to anticipate. 

People operating like they did in 2019 (i.e. waiting until the last minute to order product expecting it to be available) are screwed.

It's a different world than it was 2 years ago. 

For the record, we make our product right here, we don't import. 

We have to order materials far in advance now.  It's like 2009-2010 all over again.

I agree with people not using public transport again.

What are you guys making that people are gobbling up?

We have to order way in advance. It's a damn nightmare. On top of that, we've increased our manufacturing wages 5 times to try to attract new workers & it hasn't worked yet. 

Just out of curiosity, what are you offering?  I'm curious if it's too low of pay to entice people?

I thought $20 for a hospitality job in AC was pretty good.  Doing fast food or a restaurant?  not so much.

It depends on their experience/skill set in manufacturing. It's anywhere from $20-30/hr + benefits. 

For me in my 20's that is fair.  Now? Not so much.

$20/hr is with zero experience, and it adjusts from there. Believe me, I wish we could offer more, but it's not up to me & production isn't even my department within the company. The cost of living in the KC area is decent, but I would rather we start a bit higher. We may have to if the latest increases don't have decent results. 

Our manufacturing lines aren't heavy-labor intensive at all, either. These are primarily entry-level positions or just above. 

20s is a fair starting wage.

If you still live at home or rent a room in a house, yes.

Meltdown99

tempo_n_groove said:

Meltdown99 said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Merkin Baller said:

OnWis97 said:

Here's a thought on why people don't want to go back to work...
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/10/19/1047032996/why-are-so-many-americans-quitting-their-jobs?fbclid=IwAR3P-sK5hgBMGIuHhA6FTuRyOfmot1o-hQpbtWIQyXpivbW3Evx36jcF8E0

I'm probably blessed in my office-work-at-home life but I'm not feeling very many effects. We order a lot of stuff and aside from the occasional random thing seemingly disappearing from grocery store shelves for weeks and a couple of businesses having reduced hours, I'm not noticing much. But then again, I'm in a bubble.

The biggest inconvenience I've had happened yesterday. I decided to call the vet because my dog has some bald spots. I found out yesterday that just about every veterinarian is scheduling out at least four weeks. So I waited a couple hours in vet urgent care and spent an extra $50 for an appointment because I think it might be ringworm (test now pending). But you ask about "...and your surrounding area." and it looks like this is a nationwide problem due in large part to a huge increase in pet ownership during the pandemic.

Hope you don't have to wait long for ivermectin if it is indeed a worm. (thanks Joe Rogan & Alex Jones et al) 


RE: Traffic, more people are on the roads in the Boston area, but I think a lot of people are opting to drive to work as opposed to taking the subway since offices reopened. 

I work in manufacturing, and there are a lot of people panic buying, which isn't helping the supply chain. We're on pace to sell as many as 4X the amount of certain items that we sold last year, the usage has been impossible to anticipate. 

People operating like they did in 2019 (i.e. waiting until the last minute to order product expecting it to be available) are screwed.

It's a different world than it was 2 years ago. 

For the record, we make our product right here, we don't import. 

We have to order materials far in advance now.  It's like 2009-2010 all over again.

I agree with people not using public transport again.

What are you guys making that people are gobbling up?

We have to order way in advance. It's a damn nightmare. On top of that, we've increased our manufacturing wages 5 times to try to attract new workers & it hasn't worked yet. 

Just out of curiosity, what are you offering?  I'm curious if it's too low of pay to entice people?

I thought $20 for a hospitality job in AC was pretty good.  Doing fast food or a restaurant?  not so much.

It depends on their experience/skill set in manufacturing. It's anywhere from $20-30/hr + benefits. 

For me in my 20's that is fair.  Now? Not so much.

$20/hr is with zero experience, and it adjusts from there. Believe me, I wish we could offer more, but it's not up to me & production isn't even my department within the company. The cost of living in the KC area is decent, but I would rather we start a bit higher. We may have to if the latest increases don't have decent results. 

Our manufacturing lines aren't heavy-labor intensive at all, either. These are primarily entry-level positions or just above. 

20s is a fair starting wage.

If you still live at home or rent a room in a house, yes.

That’s a great point.  

mfc2006

tempo_n_groove said:

Meltdown99 said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Merkin Baller said:

OnWis97 said:

Here's a thought on why people don't want to go back to work...
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/10/19/1047032996/why-are-so-many-americans-quitting-their-jobs?fbclid=IwAR3P-sK5hgBMGIuHhA6FTuRyOfmot1o-hQpbtWIQyXpivbW3Evx36jcF8E0

I'm probably blessed in my office-work-at-home life but I'm not feeling very many effects. We order a lot of stuff and aside from the occasional random thing seemingly disappearing from grocery store shelves for weeks and a couple of businesses having reduced hours, I'm not noticing much. But then again, I'm in a bubble.

The biggest inconvenience I've had happened yesterday. I decided to call the vet because my dog has some bald spots. I found out yesterday that just about every veterinarian is scheduling out at least four weeks. So I waited a couple hours in vet urgent care and spent an extra $50 for an appointment because I think it might be ringworm (test now pending). But you ask about "...and your surrounding area." and it looks like this is a nationwide problem due in large part to a huge increase in pet ownership during the pandemic.

Hope you don't have to wait long for ivermectin if it is indeed a worm. (thanks Joe Rogan & Alex Jones et al) 


RE: Traffic, more people are on the roads in the Boston area, but I think a lot of people are opting to drive to work as opposed to taking the subway since offices reopened. 

I work in manufacturing, and there are a lot of people panic buying, which isn't helping the supply chain. We're on pace to sell as many as 4X the amount of certain items that we sold last year, the usage has been impossible to anticipate. 

People operating like they did in 2019 (i.e. waiting until the last minute to order product expecting it to be available) are screwed.

It's a different world than it was 2 years ago. 

For the record, we make our product right here, we don't import. 

We have to order materials far in advance now.  It's like 2009-2010 all over again.

I agree with people not using public transport again.

What are you guys making that people are gobbling up?

We have to order way in advance. It's a damn nightmare. On top of that, we've increased our manufacturing wages 5 times to try to attract new workers & it hasn't worked yet. 

Just out of curiosity, what are you offering?  I'm curious if it's too low of pay to entice people?

I thought $20 for a hospitality job in AC was pretty good.  Doing fast food or a restaurant?  not so much.

It depends on their experience/skill set in manufacturing. It's anywhere from $20-30/hr + benefits. 

For me in my 20's that is fair.  Now? Not so much.

$20/hr is with zero experience, and it adjusts from there. Believe me, I wish we could offer more, but it's not up to me & production isn't even my department within the company. The cost of living in the KC area is decent, but I would rather we start a bit higher. We may have to if the latest increases don't have decent results. 

Our manufacturing lines aren't heavy-labor intensive at all, either. These are primarily entry-level positions or just above. 

20s is a fair starting wage.

If you still live at home or rent a room in a house, yes.

Which is what most of our entry level employees do---they have roommates, live at home, etc.

If someone applies with far more experience, we adjust accordingly. We did this last week, actually and brought them on as a for a salaried lower-management position. 

We just aren't receiving nearly as many applications as we did 2 years ago. That's a fact.

tempo_n_groove

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Meltdown99 said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mfc2006 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Merkin Baller said:

OnWis97 said:

Here's a thought on why people don't want to go back to work...
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/10/19/1047032996/why-are-so-many-americans-quitting-their-jobs?fbclid=IwAR3P-sK5hgBMGIuHhA6FTuRyOfmot1o-hQpbtWIQyXpivbW3Evx36jcF8E0

I'm probably blessed in my office-work-at-home life but I'm not feeling very many effects. We order a lot of stuff and aside from the occasional random thing seemingly disappearing from grocery store shelves for weeks and a couple of businesses having reduced hours, I'm not noticing much. But then again, I'm in a bubble.

The biggest inconvenience I've had happened yesterday. I decided to call the vet because my dog has some bald spots. I found out yesterday that just about every veterinarian is scheduling out at least four weeks. So I waited a couple hours in vet urgent care and spent an extra $50 for an appointment because I think it might be ringworm (test now pending). But you ask about "...and your surrounding area." and it looks like this is a nationwide problem due in large part to a huge increase in pet ownership during the pandemic.

Hope you don't have to wait long for ivermectin if it is indeed a worm. (thanks Joe Rogan & Alex Jones et al) 


RE: Traffic, more people are on the roads in the Boston area, but I think a lot of people are opting to drive to work as opposed to taking the subway since offices reopened. 

I work in manufacturing, and there are a lot of people panic buying, which isn't helping the supply chain. We're on pace to sell as many as 4X the amount of certain items that we sold last year, the usage has been impossible to anticipate. 

People operating like they did in 2019 (i.e. waiting until the last minute to order product expecting it to be available) are screwed.

It's a different world than it was 2 years ago. 

For the record, we make our product right here, we don't import. 

We have to order materials far in advance now.  It's like 2009-2010 all over again.

I agree with people not using public transport again.

What are you guys making that people are gobbling up?

We have to order way in advance. It's a damn nightmare. On top of that, we've increased our manufacturing wages 5 times to try to attract new workers & it hasn't worked yet. 

Just out of curiosity, what are you offering?  I'm curious if it's too low of pay to entice people?

I thought $20 for a hospitality job in AC was pretty good.  Doing fast food or a restaurant?  not so much.

It depends on their experience/skill set in manufacturing. It's anywhere from $20-30/hr + benefits. 

For me in my 20's that is fair.  Now? Not so much.

$20/hr is with zero experience, and it adjusts from there. Believe me, I wish we could offer more, but it's not up to me & production isn't even my department within the company. The cost of living in the KC area is decent, but I would rather we start a bit higher. We may have to if the latest increases don't have decent results. 

Our manufacturing lines aren't heavy-labor intensive at all, either. These are primarily entry-level positions or just above. 

20s is a fair starting wage.

If you still live at home or rent a room in a house, yes.

Which is what most of our entry level employees do---they have roommates, live at home, etc.

If someone applies with far more experience, we adjust accordingly. We did this last week, actually and brought them on as a for a salaried lower-management position. 

We just aren't receiving nearly as many applications as we did 2 years ago. That's a fact.

I'd love to move out of NY but KC is not on the radar, lol.

Halifax2TheMax

The supply chain issue and the cluster that is the global pandemic is a perfect storm for a global supply chain. Here's this morning's NYT speaking to some of the issues. However, its much more complicated than what they write about. Manufacturing overseas has been disrupted due to the same issues as here. Shipping containers are normally shipped full, either from "here" or "there." Some are full and sitting off port but a lot are empty and not being shipped where they're needed, i.e. places that are producing but can't move their product to market. Add in 728,000 dead people that may have been previously in skilled or hospitality type jobs and you get a sense of this global cluster. Tourism being down in many places outside of the US means less spend for the locals, meaning less demand for goods, particularly non-essentials. Whether its raw materials or finished product, or the labor to produce them, things are going to be f'ed up for a while. None of which the US, or anyone else, can solve on their own. None of the potential solutions turn on a dime and all are probably interrelated.

One thing is certain, there will be major changes to certain aspects of the economy, yet to be determined.

Good morning. How can so many Americans afford not to work? And will it last?

‘I can be choosy’

A shortage of bus drivers has forced school districts to combine routes. A lack of servers has caused restaurants to reduce hours. And you may have noticed that the checkout lines at supermarkets, drugstores and other retailers have grown.

The labor shortage of 2021 is both conspicuous and perplexing. How is it, after all, that several million people who were working before the pandemic are now getting by without a paycheck?

There is no single answer, but a crucial part of the explanation is that Americans are flush with cash.

(Monday’s newsletter detailed how the cash glut is also causing rising inflation and supply-chain problems like backed-up ports.)

Thanks to pandemic stimulus programs during both the Trump and Biden administrations, many families have received multiple checks from the federal government over the past 18 months. Those stimulus programs also increased the size of unemployment benefits. Over the same period, home values and stock prices have risen, too.

As a result, many households have more of a financial cushion than they used to. If anything, the recent increases in savings have been larger at the bottom of the economic spectrum than at the top:

With this cushion, some workers — especially those in service industries disrupted by Covid-19 — have decided that they did not like their old jobs enough to return. Others have simply quit their jobs.

A low-wage economy

That should not be entirely surprising. The American economy of the past few decades has not been very kind to workers.

Since the 1980s, incomes for the poor, the working class and much of the middle class have grown slowly, failing to keep up with either economic growth or the incomes of the affluent. Other quality-of-life measures are also flashing red. Life expectancy has grown more slowly in the U.S. than in dozens of other countries. Drug use, alcohol use, chronic pain and suicide have risen among the working class, while marriage and self-reported satisfaction have declined (as these charts show).

“Many, many people are realizing that the way things were prepandemic were not sustainable and not benefiting them,” Rachel Eager, 25, who previously worked at an after-school program in New York, told my colleague Ben Casselman.

Eager is now looking for a new job, but she is not in a rush. “My financial situation is OK, and I think that is 99 percent of the reason that I can be choosy about my job prospects,” she said. So far, she has not been willing to take another job with low pay, no benefits and little flexibility.

Her attitude is telling. The U.S. does not have a pure labor shortage so much as it has a shortage of workers willing to accept the working conditions that today’s economy often demands.

Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist and Times Opinion columnist, has described the trend as “the revolt of the American worker.” Betsey Stevenson, a University of Michigan professor, calls it the “take this job and shove it” economy.

There are also labor shortages in some other countries, probably related to their own large pandemic stimulus programs. But the situation seems to be most intense in the U.S.

A turning point?

The big uncertainty is what happens next.

One possibility is that we have entered a new era of tight labor markets. With more Americans choosing not to work — including aging baby boomers — companies would then need to increase pay and improve working conditions to attract employees. Some are already doing so, Ben Casselman notes: Hourly wages in the leisure-and-hospitality sector, for example, have surged this year.

In this scenario, the pandemic would represent a turning point. Almost a half-century of a low-wage economy would end, and incomes would grow more rapidly, as they did from the 1940s until the early ’70s.

But I find it hard to believe this is the most likely scenario.

For one thing, the financial cushion of most households still is not large. The median cash savings of the bottom quarter of households (ranked by earnings) has risen by 70 percent over the past two years — but it’s still only about $1,000, Fiona Greig of the JPMorgan Chase Institute points out. And the pandemic stimulus programs have mostly ended.

Eventually, more Americans will feel the need to go back to work. When they do, they will find a job market where employers hold a decided power advantage, because of the decline of labor unions and an increase in corporate concentration. The college dropout crisis, leaving many workers struggling to keep up with technological changes, plays a role, too.

President Biden and many other Democrats favor a set of policies intended to put workers on more even footing with their employers. The agenda includes paid family leave, expanded child tax credits, subsidized child care, a crackdown on anti-union activities and a more aggressive approach to corporate consolidation.

But it is unclear how many of those ideas will become law. Congressional Republicans have expressed concerns about some of these same trends but oppose most policy responses. Congressional Democrats have razor-thin margins in Congress and don’t yet agree about what laws to pass.

In the meantime, Ben says, the labor market is in a standoff: “Workers are holding out until their savings disappear. Businesses are holding out until their customers disappear.”

You can read his story about the job shortage. It also describes some of the causes of the shortage other than the cash glut, like Covid fears and a dearth of day-care options.

tempo_n_groove

There is no single answer, but a crucial part of the explanation is that Americans are flush with cash.

(Monday’s newsletter detailed how the cash glut is also causing rising inflation and supply-chain problems like backed-up ports.)

I wonder about people who got into Bitcoin or early NFT's somehow became flush w cash that they still don't have to work?

This also makes me wonder if the new regulations regarding Paypal and that $600 usage and you get a 1099 form.  They gov't knows you have been making money other than actual work so they want a piece.

Just a thought.

static111

Halifax2TheMax said:

There is no single answer, but a crucial part of the explanation is that Americans are flush with cash.

(Monday’s newsletter detailed how the cash glut is also causing rising inflation and supply-chain problems like backed-up ports.)

Who are these people that are so flush with cash from government benefits and how can I be like them?  I got enhanced benefits for a few months but it didn't exactly build a buffer, more or less kept us afloat until I found a different less lucrative position than my pre pandemic job.

Meltdown99

Don’t discount the effects that skip the dishes, doordash, Uber eats or Uber and these type services are having on employment.  

JojoRice

Went to Chili's last night and they were only accepting take out orders.  I asked them why the dining room was closed and they said it was due to lack of cooks.  

mickeyrat

Meltdown99 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Bentleyspop said:

In my line of work we have known for awhile that certain items have been sitting on docks and or ships for months now.
We just move on to something else to fill the holes.

I keep hearing this. 

Longshoreman jobs and trucking are very good paying jobs.  I don't understand why people would not want those types of jobs?

LMFAO.  Young people today have no interest in trucking.  I have 2 family member who drove truck and left the industry... it's a great life if you wanna live in a truck...

otr is only one part of the industry. even then it can be regional with home time through the week.

my side ,ltl is daycab, home daily. now starting at 6 figures.... its having a pool of QUALIFIED drivers to choose from. slim pickings.

tempo_n_groove

static111 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

There is no single answer, but a crucial part of the explanation is that Americans are flush with cash.

(Monday’s newsletter detailed how the cash glut is also causing rising inflation and supply-chain problems like backed-up ports.)

Who are these people that are so flush with cash from government benefits and how can I be like them?  I got enhanced benefits for a few months but it didn't exactly build a buffer, more or less kept us afloat until I found a different less lucrative position than my pre pandemic job.

I know of quite a few people that benefitted from that and had more money to "play with" too.  Those same people went into trading and sports card which both saw a significant boom.

static111

tempo_n_groove said:

static111 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

There is no single answer, but a crucial part of the explanation is that Americans are flush with cash.

(Monday’s newsletter detailed how the cash glut is also causing rising inflation and supply-chain problems like backed-up ports.)

Who are these people that are so flush with cash from government benefits and how can I be like them?  I got enhanced benefits for a few months but it didn't exactly build a buffer, more or less kept us afloat until I found a different less lucrative position than my pre pandemic job.

I know of quite a few people that benefitted from that and had more money to "play with" too.  Those same people went into trading and sports card which both saw a significant boom.

Dude there was a sports card boom during all this?   People have odd priorities