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Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!

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    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,621
    Biden
    I think Trump's Christian support has eroded a bit, at least according to the polls.  Dumping Pence may not be in the cards because of that. 
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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,230
    Biden
    Can I just take a moment to point out that Joe Biden is currently DESTROYING Trump? He's not just doing okay, he is literally destroying him at the moment. Long time to go but if the election were today, I'm confident he would win in a landslide. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
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    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,946
    Biden
    Can I just take a moment to point out that Joe Biden is currently DESTROYING Trump? He's not just doing okay, he is literally destroying him at the moment. Long time to go but if the election were today, I'm confident he would win in a landslide. 
    Fours years ago they used the Comey/Email announcements to sink Hillary at the last minute.  They will obviously try to use Burisma to attack Biden but I just don't think it will matter.

    As long as Biden doesn't collapse on stage during a debate he has this.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
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    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,575
    Can I just take a moment to point out that Joe Biden is currently DESTROYING Trump? He's not just doing okay, he is literally destroying him at the moment. Long time to go but if the election were today, I'm confident he would win in a landslide. 
    Fours years ago they used the Comey/Email announcements to sink Hillary at the last minute.  They will obviously try to use Burisma to attack Biden but I just don't think it will matter.

    As long as Biden doesn't collapse on stage during a debate he has this.
    Look for Tara Reade to attend a debate or two. There will be some BS, made up phony story regarding Obamagate and Sleepy Woke Joe's role coming out soon. CYA Barr keeps hinting at all the malfeasance about to come out via the CT AG's investigation. Plus, he still has Ruddy Ghouliani's Ukraine fact finding report to release. How do you credibly counter that shit? It'll be Swift Boating 2.0.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

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    Hi!Hi! Posts: 3,095
    Biden
    Nothing but fear and loathing for me here in Trump country/county. Could be not having had a cig in 77 days, but I suspect this feeling to continue into Dec. 2020 when the Supreme Court declares Biden the winner, god willing.

    Detroit 2000, Detroit 2003 1-2, Grand Rapids VFC 2004, Philly 2005, Grand Rapids 2006, Detroit 2006, Cleveland 2006, Lollapalooza 2007, Detroit Eddie Solo 2011, Detroit 2014, Chicago 2016 1-2, Chicago 2018 1-2, Ohana Encore 2021 1-2, Chicago Eddie/Earthlings 2022 1-2, Nashville 2022, St. Louis 2022

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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,230
    Biden
    Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close


    chinese-happy.jpg
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    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,946
    Biden
    Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close


    yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
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    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,946
    Biden
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/504461-fiorina-planning-to-vote-for-biden

    This is kinda big...I think we will see more of this as we get closer to the election.  I predict that some big name repubs will voice support for Biden very close to the election to damage tRump.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
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    HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 35,808
    Biden
    Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close


    yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up
    I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?
    Darwinspeed, all. 

    Cheers,

    HFD




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    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,946
    Biden
    Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close


    yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up
    I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?
    Not really....the national poll showing Hillary by 2% was dead on but we use the electoral college so popular vote doesn't count.

    Remember that Comey did his little "we are again reviewing emails" letter about a week before the election.  The polls didn't have time to adjust for that bullshit.

    The polling was very accurate except for WI, PA and MI....Hillary lost those three states by a combined 77,000 votes.  Meaning about 38,000 people may have changed their vote from HC to tRump and gave him the election.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
  • Options
    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,946
    Biden
    I really think the tRump strategy is used up.  What worked in 2016 (tRump as a non-politician running against the evil HC) is not going to work this time.  He has a record that isn't pretty.  
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
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    JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 18,873
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
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    OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 4,822
    Biden
    Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close


    yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up
    I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?
    Not really....the national poll showing Hillary by 2% was dead on but we use the electoral college so popular vote doesn't count.

    Remember that Comey did his little "we are again reviewing emails" letter about a week before the election.  The polls didn't have time to adjust for that bullshit.

    The polling was very accurate except for WI, PA and MI....Hillary lost those three states by a combined 77,000 votes.  Meaning about 38,000 people may have changed their vote from HC to tRump and gave him the election.

    I think it was more like a 70% chance.  But this is starting to eerily similar to 2016.  "Trump is sinking; nobody likes him; he's going to lose" is the new "Trump's and idiot; he's totally unqualified; he's going to lose."
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
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    static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    Biden
    OnWis97 said:
    Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close


    yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up
    I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?
    Not really....the national poll showing Hillary by 2% was dead on but we use the electoral college so popular vote doesn't count.

    Remember that Comey did his little "we are again reviewing emails" letter about a week before the election.  The polls didn't have time to adjust for that bullshit.

    The polling was very accurate except for WI, PA and MI....Hillary lost those three states by a combined 77,000 votes.  Meaning about 38,000 people may have changed their vote from HC to tRump and gave him the election.

    I think it was more like a 70% chance.  But this is starting to eerily similar to 2016.  "Trump is sinking; nobody likes him; he's going to lose" is the new "Trump's and idiot; he's totally unqualified; he's going to lose."
    It’s the berniebros fault is the new it’s the berniebros fault...wait
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
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    dignindignin Posts: 9,303
    OnWis97 said:
    Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close


    yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up
    I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?
    Not really....the national poll showing Hillary by 2% was dead on but we use the electoral college so popular vote doesn't count.

    Remember that Comey did his little "we are again reviewing emails" letter about a week before the election.  The polls didn't have time to adjust for that bullshit.

    The polling was very accurate except for WI, PA and MI....Hillary lost those three states by a combined 77,000 votes.  Meaning about 38,000 people may have changed their vote from HC to tRump and gave him the election.

    I think it was more like a 70% chance.  But this is starting to eerily similar to 2016.  "Trump is sinking; nobody likes him; he's going to lose" is the new "Trump's and idiot; he's totally unqualified; he's going to lose."
    Not the same. 

    Hillary never had these numbers in 2016, they are polling a lot more in the swing states this time around to get a more accurate picture and Trump is running on 4 years of a failed record.

    That said I expect it to tighten. Hope I'm wrong.
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    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,621
    Biden
    OnWis97 said:
    Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close


    yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up
    I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?
    Not really....the national poll showing Hillary by 2% was dead on but we use the electoral college so popular vote doesn't count.

    Remember that Comey did his little "we are again reviewing emails" letter about a week before the election.  The polls didn't have time to adjust for that bullshit.

    The polling was very accurate except for WI, PA and MI....Hillary lost those three states by a combined 77,000 votes.  Meaning about 38,000 people may have changed their vote from HC to tRump and gave him the election.

    I think it was more like a 70% chance.  But this is starting to eerily similar to 2016.  "Trump is sinking; nobody likes him; he's going to lose" is the new "Trump's and idiot; he's totally unqualified; he's going to lose."
    well he does have a record now. That makes it a big difference.  Right now it's not a choice, it's a referendum.  That's why the polls are so good.  The objective is to keep it that way.  
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    HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 35,808
    Biden
    in other words....keep biden away from a microphone. lol
    Darwinspeed, all. 

    Cheers,

    HFD




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    pjl44pjl44 Posts: 8,050
    I'm sitting this one out
    in other words....keep biden away from a microphone. lol
    And a freshly washed/styled head of hair
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    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,621
    Biden
    So long as Trump keeps shooting himself, there's no reason to get in front of the skis. That would be my advice to anyone.  Post convention,  he should be out much more. 
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    Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,112
    JimmyV said:

    I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

    If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

    Some key differences in 2020-
    Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

    Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year. 

    Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

    interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/
  • Options
    JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 18,873
    Biden
    JimmyV said:

    I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

    If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

    Some key differences in 2020-
    Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

    Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year. 

    Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

    interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/
    What troubles me about the 2016 analysis is the states. Silver gives Trump that "almost 30%" chance to win, but you'd be hard pressed to come up with a path to 270 given his numbers in many of those individual states. And Silver had Clinton at 77% in PA, 79% in MI, and 83% in WI. 

    I don't disagree that Biden is not Clinton and that 2020 is not 2016. I am just very skeptical of polling and poll analysis in general. 
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
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    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,946
    Biden
    JimmyV said:
    JimmyV said:

    I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

    If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

    Some key differences in 2020-
    Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

    Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year. 

    Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

    interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/
    What troubles me about the 2016 analysis is the states. Silver gives Trump that "almost 30%" chance to win, but you'd be hard pressed to come up with a path to 270 given his numbers in many of those individual states. And Silver had Clinton at 77% in PA, 79% in MI, and 83% in WI. 

    I don't disagree that Biden is not Clinton and that 2020 is not 2016. I am just very skeptical of polling and poll analysis in general. 
    But again...the major killshot in 2016 was Comey's email letter.  The polls didn't have time to adjust.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
  • Options
    JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 18,873
    Biden
    JimmyV said:
    JimmyV said:

    I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

    If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

    Some key differences in 2020-
    Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

    Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year. 

    Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

    interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/
    What troubles me about the 2016 analysis is the states. Silver gives Trump that "almost 30%" chance to win, but you'd be hard pressed to come up with a path to 270 given his numbers in many of those individual states. And Silver had Clinton at 77% in PA, 79% in MI, and 83% in WI. 

    I don't disagree that Biden is not Clinton and that 2020 is not 2016. I am just very skeptical of polling and poll analysis in general. 
    But again...the major killshot in 2016 was Comey's email letter.  The polls didn't have time to adjust.
    Maybe. That was certainly a factor, but I have a hard time believing Comey alone explains Silver's map versus what we saw on election night. 
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • Options
    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,946
    Biden
    JimmyV said:
    JimmyV said:
    JimmyV said:

    I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

    If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

    Some key differences in 2020-
    Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

    Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year. 

    Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

    interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/
    What troubles me about the 2016 analysis is the states. Silver gives Trump that "almost 30%" chance to win, but you'd be hard pressed to come up with a path to 270 given his numbers in many of those individual states. And Silver had Clinton at 77% in PA, 79% in MI, and 83% in WI. 

    I don't disagree that Biden is not Clinton and that 2020 is not 2016. I am just very skeptical of polling and poll analysis in general. 
    But again...the major killshot in 2016 was Comey's email letter.  The polls didn't have time to adjust.
    Maybe. That was certainly a factor, but I have a hard time believing Comey alone explains Silver's map versus what we saw on election night. 
    except for those three states Silver was right....wasn't he?
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
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    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,575
    JimmyV said:
    JimmyV said:
    JimmyV said:

    I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

    If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

    Some key differences in 2020-
    Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

    Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year. 

    Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

    interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/
    What troubles me about the 2016 analysis is the states. Silver gives Trump that "almost 30%" chance to win, but you'd be hard pressed to come up with a path to 270 given his numbers in many of those individual states. And Silver had Clinton at 77% in PA, 79% in MI, and 83% in WI. 

    I don't disagree that Biden is not Clinton and that 2020 is not 2016. I am just very skeptical of polling and poll analysis in general. 
    But again...the major killshot in 2016 was Comey's email letter.  The polls didn't have time to adjust.
    Maybe. That was certainly a factor, but I have a hard time believing Comey alone explains Silver's map versus what we saw on election night. 
    12% of Bernie supporters voted Team Trump Treason and a massive social media troll campaign by Putin on the ritz to elevate Team Trump Treason and suppress Hillary or dem voters, unknown at the time. That’s the difference and it worked.
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    JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 18,873
    Biden
    JimmyV said:
    JimmyV said:
    JimmyV said:

    I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

    If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

    Some key differences in 2020-
    Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

    Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year. 

    Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

    interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/
    What troubles me about the 2016 analysis is the states. Silver gives Trump that "almost 30%" chance to win, but you'd be hard pressed to come up with a path to 270 given his numbers in many of those individual states. And Silver had Clinton at 77% in PA, 79% in MI, and 83% in WI. 

    I don't disagree that Biden is not Clinton and that 2020 is not 2016. I am just very skeptical of polling and poll analysis in general. 
    But again...the major killshot in 2016 was Comey's email letter.  The polls didn't have time to adjust.
    Maybe. That was certainly a factor, but I have a hard time believing Comey alone explains Silver's map versus what we saw on election night. 
    except for those three states Silver was right....wasn't he?
    He also had North Carolina and Florida leaning towards Clinton. Easier to believe Comey tipped those two states than it is MI, WI, or PA. 
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    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,946
    Biden
    Biden is destroying tRump right now....sounds good
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
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    cincybearcatcincybearcat Posts: 16,086
    Biden
    Biden is destroying tRump right now....sounds good
    I'm pretty shocked to be honest.  Trump had a "gift".  Despite all his bad things, if he had "dominated" the virus, I think he would have had a great chance at re-election.  It was also the perfect opportunity for a power grab.  Good thing he is an idiot and didn't grab more power, but too bad he is an idiot and people will die because he does nothing beneficial and actually causes harm by making his idiot followers think wearing a mask is political.

    If his plan works, reducing testing makes Covid go away, we can end abortion by just not testing women that don't want to be pregnant.  It's a miracle!
    hippiemom = goodness
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    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,946
    Biden
    Biden is destroying tRump right now....sounds good
    I'm pretty shocked to be honest.  Trump had a "gift".  Despite all his bad things, if he had "dominated" the virus, I think he would have had a great chance at re-election.  It was also the perfect opportunity for a power grab.  Good thing he is an idiot and didn't grab more power, but too bad he is an idiot and people will die because he does nothing beneficial and actually causes harm by making his idiot followers think wearing a mask is political.

    If his plan works, reducing testing makes Covid go away, we can end abortion by just not testing women that don't want to be pregnant.  It's a miracle!
    I meant in his speech....I meant to clarify that.

    Even without the virus I think tRump was in trouble.  Dems are fired up and there are enough Independents that voted for tRump the first time and won't vote for him again.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
  • Options
    OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 4,822
    Biden
    Biden is destroying tRump right now....sounds good
    I'm pretty shocked to be honest.  Trump had a "gift".  Despite all his bad things, if he had "dominated" the virus, I think he would have had a great chance at re-election.  It was also the perfect opportunity for a power grab.  Good thing he is an idiot and didn't grab more power, but too bad he is an idiot and people will die because he does nothing beneficial and actually causes harm by making his idiot followers think wearing a mask is political.

    If his plan works, reducing testing makes Covid go away, we can end abortion by just not testing women that don't want to be pregnant.  It's a miracle!

    Yeah.  He had an opportunity to unite people around this. Like W with 9/11.  Sure. it's a bit easier to bring patriotism/nationalism in that case than against COVID, but he could have (in theory, anyway) said things like "we're all in this together; regardless of your thoughts on other political issues."  The problem is that 1) His appeal to his followers relies on demonizing domestic "enemies" and 2) he couldn't fake his way through being comforting and empathetic on his best day (which was probably in 1985).  W came in having won a questionable election and people were, as a whole, skeptical. Then 9/11 happened and he was in the mid-80s for months and maybe over 60% for over a year.  And he exploited it.  Trump could have done nearly the same thing.  Maybe not that high, but he could have used this to be over 50%, solidly.  Those who badmouthed W were decried as unpatriotic.  That might not have been as likely with Trump, since this isn't an attack on our country, but he still could have totally grabbed the middle (and imagine the way's he could have exploited a 60% approval rating). But he's not a leader.  He's not a uniter.  He's a divider.
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