What Fox News have to do with being pissed at China cover covering this up, lying about it, threatening their own doctors for trying talk about how dangerous this is? That’s all facts, we could have been a month or 2 ahead of this if they didn’t cover this up and ban outsider scientists from researching the virus. What does any of that have to do with Fox News?
You are buying into the FOX news Trump narrative. The Trump administration knew what was coming, they were warned and ignored those warnings. So stop spreading bullshit that the world could have been better prepared had China been more transparent.
Look at the beginning of this thread for proof of how long we have know this was a threat. It's really unbelievable how gullible people are.
Stop being so gullible.
So we’re only allowed to be upset at one person? We can’t be upset with how China covered this up and not be happy with how the IS handled this? Whybisnit gullible to not be happy with multiple parties? Why is it smarter to just only pick one and give everyone else a free pass? That to me seems more gullible, picking only one party and giving everyone else a free pass. China could have shared more information. China could have allowed health researchers. China could have started to contain it sooner. Why are we not allowed to be upset with how they handled it too?
Sure, be angry with China all you want. It isn't going to help anyone, or change one thing in this current crisis, but if that's how you want to spend your energy that's your prerogative.
I will continue to act on things within my control. Holding my leaders accountable being one of those things. If they fuck up I won't go looking somewhere else to blame just because they are on my team.
I don't see how someone is "wrong" for acknowledging the fact that this virus (and others in the past) was unlocked by China's irresponsible behavior. Being angered by this behavior seems like a natural reaction.
That does not mean that someone can't be upset at Trump and the U.S. government's handling of the situation as well. I absolutely hold them accountable for their negligence, slow action, unpreparedness, misleading tone to the public, failure to test, etc. It put us well behind the eight ball and lives will be lost as a result.
So, yeah. I'm pissed off at both, but the reality is, being pissed right now does no good.
What Fox News have to do with being pissed at China cover covering this up, lying about it, threatening their own doctors for trying talk about how dangerous this is? That’s all facts, we could have been a month or 2 ahead of this if they didn’t cover this up and ban outsider scientists from researching the virus. What does any of that have to do with Fox News?
You are buying into the FOX news Trump narrative. The Trump administration knew what was coming, they were warned and ignored those warnings. So stop spreading bullshit that the world could have been better prepared had China been more transparent.
Look at the beginning of this thread for proof of how long we have know this was a threat. It's really unbelievable how gullible people are.
Stop being so gullible.
So we’re only allowed to be upset at one person? We can’t be upset with how China covered this up and not be happy with how the IS handled this? Whybisnit gullible to not be happy with multiple parties? Why is it smarter to just only pick one and give everyone else a free pass? That to me seems more gullible, picking only one party and giving everyone else a free pass. China could have shared more information. China could have allowed health researchers. China could have started to contain it sooner. Why are we not allowed to be upset with how they handled it too?
Sure, be angry with China all you want. It isn't going to help anyone, or change one thing in this current crisis, but if that's how you want to spend your energy that's your prerogative.
I will continue to act on things within my control. Holding my leaders accountable being one of those things. If they fuck up I won't go looking somewhere else to blame just because they are on my team.
One of the things people will likely be holding their leaders accountable for is how they, as part of the global community, intend to hold China accountable for initiating this. The Trump administration, for their part, has done a miserable job in almost every aspect of preparing for and handling this here. I'm not sure there's anybody who's posted in the last 20 pages or so that would dispute that. But I think there's plenty of room for anger, frustration, etc. directed at both.
I mean, shit, you've had the Chinese Foreign Ministry trying to lie and pin this on the US for a week or two. Now they're trying to blame it on Italy. That government is abominable and it needs to be said out loud.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
What Fox News have to do with being pissed at China cover covering this up, lying about it, threatening their own doctors for trying talk about how dangerous this is? That’s all facts, we could have been a month or 2 ahead of this if they didn’t cover this up and ban outsider scientists from researching the virus. What does any of that have to do with Fox News?
You are buying into the FOX news Trump narrative. The Trump administration knew what was coming, they were warned and ignored those warnings. So stop spreading bullshit that the world could have been better prepared had China been more transparent.
Look at the beginning of this thread for proof of how long we have know this was a threat. It's really unbelievable how gullible people are.
Stop being so gullible.
So we’re only allowed to be upset at one person? We can’t be upset with how China covered this up and not be happy with how the IS handled this? Whybisnit gullible to not be happy with multiple parties? Why is it smarter to just only pick one and give everyone else a free pass? That to me seems more gullible, picking only one party and giving everyone else a free pass. China could have shared more information. China could have allowed health researchers. China could have started to contain it sooner. Why are we not allowed to be upset with how they handled it too?
Sure, be angry with China all you want. It isn't going to help anyone, or change one thing in this current crisis, but if that's how you want to spend your energy that's your prerogative.
I will continue to act on things within my control. Holding my leaders accountable being one of those things. If they fuck up I won't go looking somewhere else to blame just because they are on my team.
One of the things people will likely be holding their leaders accountable for is how they, as part of the global community, intend to hold China accountable for initiating this. The Trump administration, for their part, has done a miserable job in almost every aspect of preparing for and handling this here. I'm not sure there's anybody who's posted in the last 20 pages or so that would dispute that. But I think there's plenty of room for anger, frustration, etc. directed at both.
I don't disagree, but there are Trump supporters here and elsewhere. The same people who thought it was a democratic hoax, then moved on to "it's just the flu" and now have moved on to it's all China's fault I have to stay home.
What Fox News have to do with being pissed at China cover covering this up, lying about it, threatening their own doctors for trying talk about how dangerous this is? That’s all facts, we could have been a month or 2 ahead of this if they didn’t cover this up and ban outsider scientists from researching the virus. What does any of that have to do with Fox News?
You are buying into the FOX news Trump narrative. The Trump administration knew what was coming, they were warned and ignored those warnings. So stop spreading bullshit that the world could have been better prepared had China been more transparent.
Look at the beginning of this thread for proof of how long we have know this was a threat. It's really unbelievable how gullible people are.
Stop being so gullible.
So we’re only allowed to be upset at one person? We can’t be upset with how China covered this up and not be happy with how the IS handled this? Whybisnit gullible to not be happy with multiple parties? Why is it smarter to just only pick one and give everyone else a free pass? That to me seems more gullible, picking only one party and giving everyone else a free pass. China could have shared more information. China could have allowed health researchers. China could have started to contain it sooner. Why are we not allowed to be upset with how they handled it too?
Sure, be angry with China all you want. It isn't going to help anyone, or change one thing in this current crisis, but if that's how you want to spend your energy that's your prerogative.
I will continue to act on things within my control. Holding my leaders accountable being one of those things. If they fuck up I won't go looking somewhere else to blame just because they are on my team.
One of the things people will likely be holding their leaders accountable for is how they, as part of the global community, intend to hold China accountable for initiating this. The Trump administration, for their part, has done a miserable job in almost every aspect of preparing for and handling this here. I'm not sure there's anybody who's posted in the last 20 pages or so that would dispute that. But I think there's plenty of room for anger, frustration, etc. directed at both.
I don't disagree, but there are Trump supporters here and elsewhere. The same people who thought it was a democratic hoax, then moved on to "it's just the flu" and now have moved on to it's all China's fault I have to stay home.
You picking up what I'm throwing down here?
So find them and go argue with them. Dragging a strawman into the thread doesn't advance the discussion.
What Fox News have to do with being pissed at China cover covering this up, lying about it, threatening their own doctors for trying talk about how dangerous this is? That’s all facts, we could have been a month or 2 ahead of this if they didn’t cover this up and ban outsider scientists from researching the virus. What does any of that have to do with Fox News?
You are buying into the FOX news Trump narrative. The Trump administration knew what was coming, they were warned and ignored those warnings. So stop spreading bullshit that the world could have been better prepared had China been more transparent.
Look at the beginning of this thread for proof of how long we have know this was a threat. It's really unbelievable how gullible people are.
Stop being so gullible.
So we’re only allowed to be upset at one person? We can’t be upset with how China covered this up and not be happy with how the IS handled this? Whybisnit gullible to not be happy with multiple parties? Why is it smarter to just only pick one and give everyone else a free pass? That to me seems more gullible, picking only one party and giving everyone else a free pass. China could have shared more information. China could have allowed health researchers. China could have started to contain it sooner. Why are we not allowed to be upset with how they handled it too?
Sure, be angry with China all you want. It isn't going to help anyone, or change one thing in this current crisis, but if that's how you want to spend your energy that's your prerogative.
I will continue to act on things within my control. Holding my leaders accountable being one of those things. If they fuck up I won't go looking somewhere else to blame just because they are on my team.
One of the things people will likely be holding their leaders accountable for is how they, as part of the global community, intend to hold China accountable for initiating this. The Trump administration, for their part, has done a miserable job in almost every aspect of preparing for and handling this here. I'm not sure there's anybody who's posted in the last 20 pages or so that would dispute that. But I think there's plenty of room for anger, frustration, etc. directed at both.
I don't disagree, but there are Trump supporters here and elsewhere. The same people who thought it was a democratic hoax, then moved on to "it's just the flu" and now have moved on to it's all China's fault I have to stay home.
You picking up what I'm throwing down here?
not without gloves and clorox wipes.......
elected "leadership" wont be able to do much. ALL those companies manufacturing there however CAN do something here..... and be more impactful. It will mean however cheap goods wont be as cheap....
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Please note, this is not directed to anyone in particular.
The world is dealing with a challenge that hasn't existed before in our lifetime. There isn't one 'correct' way to cope, everyone handles adversity in his or her own way. Please remember many people are at home by themselves, maybe they haven't physically seen another person in a few weeks, maybe they live in an apartment building that has little to no access to the outdoors, maybe their entire lifestyle has been temporarily halted, maybe their loved one or friend passed away.
Try to have a little compassion and understanding for each other. Thank you.
Good thoughts, thank you! There's never been a better time to try to be kind to our fellow humans.
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
What Fox News have to do with being pissed at China cover covering this up, lying about it, threatening their own doctors for trying talk about how dangerous this is? That’s all facts, we could have been a month or 2 ahead of this if they didn’t cover this up and ban outsider scientists from researching the virus. What does any of that have to do with Fox News?
You are buying into the FOX news Trump narrative. The Trump administration knew what was coming, they were warned and ignored those warnings. So stop spreading bullshit that the world could have been better prepared had China been more transparent.
Look at the beginning of this thread for proof of how long we have know this was a threat. It's really unbelievable how gullible people are.
Stop being so gullible.
So we’re only allowed to be upset at one person? We can’t be upset with how China covered this up and not be happy with how the IS handled this? Whybisnit gullible to not be happy with multiple parties? Why is it smarter to just only pick one and give everyone else a free pass? That to me seems more gullible, picking only one party and giving everyone else a free pass. China could have shared more information. China could have allowed health researchers. China could have started to contain it sooner. Why are we not allowed to be upset with how they handled it too?
Sure, be angry with China all you want. It isn't going to help anyone, or change one thing in this current crisis, but if that's how you want to spend your energy that's your prerogative.
I will continue to act on things within my control. Holding my leaders accountable being one of those things. If they fuck up I won't go looking somewhere else to blame just because they are on my team.
One of the things people will likely be holding their leaders accountable for is how they, as part of the global community, intend to hold China accountable for initiating this. The Trump administration, for their part, has done a miserable job in almost every aspect of preparing for and handling this here. I'm not sure there's anybody who's posted in the last 20 pages or so that would dispute that. But I think there's plenty of room for anger, frustration, etc. directed at both.
I don't disagree, but there are Trump supporters here and elsewhere. The same people who thought it was a democratic hoax, then moved on to "it's just the flu" and now have moved on to it's all China's fault I have to stay home.
You picking up what I'm throwing down here?
So find them and go argue with them. Dragging a strawman into the thread doesn't advance the discussion.
Excusing China because you don’t like how our leadership handled this won’t help t change anything either. I’ve said for 4 or 5 years that China is a big problem for us. From the way they treat the environment to our debt and reliance on them. That needs to change. China hunting that they can control of US survives or not based on our reliance on them is very scary to me.
Unfortunately not much will change from their end as long as we depend on them as heavily as we do. We are their trust fund babies, and if they decide to let us go we’d be screwed.
Excusing China because you don’t like how our leadership handled this won’t help t change anything either. I’ve said for 4 or 5 years that China is a big problem for us. From the way they treat the environment to our debt and reliance on them. That needs to change. China hunting that they can control of US survives or not based on our reliance on them is very scary to me.
Unfortunately not much will change from their end as long as we depend on them as heavily as we do. We are their trust fund babies, and if they decide to let us go we’d be screwed.
Agreed to be dependent on Chinese nipple is the problem! So are we ready to give up everything that says made in China starting today? You think this administration is willing to say hey China your responsible for this virus outbreak were not dealing with you anymore? Just a couple of weeks ago the Baffoon was touting a Chinese deal..
Excusing China because you don’t like how our leadership handled this won’t help t change anything either. I’ve said for 4 or 5 years that China is a big problem for us. From the way they treat the environment to our debt and reliance on them. That needs to change. China hunting that they can control of US survives or not based on our reliance on them is very scary to me.
Unfortunately not much will change from their end as long as we depend on them as heavily as we do. We are their trust fund babies, and if they decide to let us go we’d be screwed.
Agreed to be dependent on Chinese nipple is the problem! So are we ready to give up everything that says made in China starting today? You think this administration is willing to say hey China your responsible for this virus outbreak were not dealing with you anymore? Just a couple of weeks ago the Baffoon was touting a Chinese deal..
China is a major importer of pork, beef and chicken not to mention wheat, soy and maybe corn......
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Excusing China because you don’t like how our leadership handled this won’t help t change anything either. I’ve said for 4 or 5 years that China is a big problem for us. From the way they treat the environment to our debt and reliance on them. That needs to change. China hunting that they can control of US survives or not based on our reliance on them is very scary to me.
Unfortunately not much will change from their end as long as we depend on them as heavily as we do. We are their trust fund babies, and if they decide to let us go we’d be screwed.
Agreed to be dependent on Chinese nipple is the problem! So are we ready to give up everything that says made in China starting today? You think this administration is willing to say hey China your responsible for this virus outbreak were not dealing with you anymore? Just a couple of weeks ago the Baffoon was touting a Chinese deal..
I was discussing this with a friend last night. Once this pandemic is behind us, we need to take a long, hard look in the mirror and decide if we're going to continue to rely on China for everything.
What Fox News have to do with being pissed at China cover covering this up, lying about it, threatening their own doctors for trying talk about how dangerous this is? That’s all facts, we could have been a month or 2 ahead of this if they didn’t cover this up and ban outsider scientists from researching the virus. What does any of that have to do with Fox News?
You are buying into the FOX news Trump narrative. The Trump administration knew what was coming, they were warned and ignored those warnings. So stop spreading bullshit that the world could have been better prepared had China been more transparent.
Look at the beginning of this thread for proof of how long we have know this was a threat. It's really unbelievable how gullible people are.
Stop being so gullible.
So we’re only allowed to be upset at one person? We can’t be upset with how China covered this up and not be happy with how the IS handled this? Whybisnit gullible to not be happy with multiple parties? Why is it smarter to just only pick one and give everyone else a free pass? That to me seems more gullible, picking only one party and giving everyone else a free pass. China could have shared more information. China could have allowed health researchers. China could have started to contain it sooner. Why are we not allowed to be upset with how they handled it too?
Sure, be angry with China all you want. It isn't going to help anyone, or change one thing in this current crisis, but if that's how you want to spend your energy that's your prerogative.
I will continue to act on things within my control. Holding my leaders accountable being one of those things. If they fuck up I won't go looking somewhere else to blame just because they are on my team.
One of the things people will likely be holding their leaders accountable for is how they, as part of the global community, intend to hold China accountable for initiating this. The Trump administration, for their part, has done a miserable job in almost every aspect of preparing for and handling this here. I'm not sure there's anybody who's posted in the last 20 pages or so that would dispute that. But I think there's plenty of room for anger, frustration, etc. directed at both.
I don't disagree, but there are Trump supporters here and elsewhere. The same people who thought it was a democratic hoax, then moved on to "it's just the flu" and now have moved on to it's all China's fault I have to stay home.
You picking up what I'm throwing down here?
So find them and go argue with them. Dragging a strawman into the thread doesn't advance the discussion.
Strawman? Sure, go back and read the thread. All those statements are there. Or don't, I don't care.
An epidemiological mystery': Why Is COVID-19 so much deadlier in some countries than others?
What's the COVID-19 death rate? I'll get back to you
Steven Lewis · FOR CBC SK OPINION · Posted: Mar 17, 2020 11:24 AM CT | Last Updated: March 17
A patient in a biocontainment unit is carried on a stretcher at the Columbus Covid 2 Hospital in Rome, Monday, March 16, 2020. (Alessandra Tarantino/The Associated Press)
Imagine you're a chief public health officer and you're asked the question on everyone's mind: how deadly is the COVID-19 outbreak?
With the number of cases worldwide approaching 200,000, and 1,000 or more cases in 15 countries, you'd think there would be an answer. But the more data we see, the tougher it is to come up with a hard number.
Overall, the death rate is around four per cent — of reported cases. That's also the death rate in China, which to date accounts for just under half the total number of global cases.
China is the only country where a) the outcome of almost all cases is known (85 per cent have recovered), and b) the spread has been stopped (numbers plateaued about a month ago).
A four per cent death rate is pretty high — about 40 times more deadly than seasonal flu — but no experts believe that is the death rate. The latest estimate is that it is around 1.5 per cent. Other models suggest that it may be somewhat lower.
The true rate can be known only if every case is known and confirmed by testing — including the asymptomatic or relatively benign cases, which comprise 80 per cent or more of the total — and all cases have run their course (people have either recovered or died). Aside from those in China, almost all cases identified are still active.
Unless a jurisdiction systematically tests a large random sample of its population, we may never know the true rate of infection or the real death rate.
Yet for all this unavoidable uncertainty, it is still odd that the rates vary so widely by country.
Extreme differences
The new epicentre of the outbreak is in Europe, so let's focus there.
The graph below shows the crude (not adjusted for age) death rates in the ten countries with the most reported cases (all 1,000 or higher).
The COVID-19 death rate varies greatly in the 10 countries with the most reported cases. (Data from worldometers.info/Graph by Steven Lewis)
Let's look at the European extremes: Italy and Germany. Italy has the most cases (28,000) but Germany has more than 7,000 and its number is growing rapidly. Yet Italy's death rate so far is 35 times higher than Germany's.
Moreover, only two of Germany's 7,200 active cases are classified as serious or critical, while in Italy it's 1,850 out of 21,000. In Canada there have been four deaths among 422 cases and only one of the 407 active cases is serious or critical.
What's going on here? No one has a ready answer.
The health care infrastructure in Italy and Germany is pretty much the same. Germany may be a week or two behind Italy in the pandemic, but in most countries the death rates seem higher at the beginning of the upsurge because the more serious cases are likely to present and be tested first.
Germany has promoted widespread testing, which is more likely to confirm non-serious cases and prevent them from coming into contact with more vulnerable groups, but so has Italy. And Italy took stronger measures to contain the virus than Germany.
Death rates are much higher in the elderly — as much as 15 per cent in the 80+ age group – and Italy has a relatively old population, but Germany has the oldest median age in Europe.
Does the German gene pool create some sort of uniquely effective immune response to just this novel coronavirus? Highly unlikely. Is the virus somehow different in Germany? Virtually impossible. Could German health care be that much more effective? Again, no.
Then what?
At this point the discrepancies seem both massive and unexplained. If they converge in the next few weeks we will be closer to an explanation. It may be that Germany has thus far been lucky, with the exposures having occurred mainly among younger and healthier people. Or maybe Italy has been unlucky, with high rates of exposure in people with pre-existing health conditions that make them vulnerable.
If the perplexing differences remain after a few more weeks and tens of thousands — or millions — of new cases, we will have a barnburner of an epidemiological mystery on our hands.
The most revealing data over time will be the death rates in the oldest population groups, because the numbers are higher and the statistics will be more reliable. If these still vary hugely, a lot of analysts will be scratching a lot of heads.
Where is Canada headed? At this early stage, it looks more like Germany than Italy, but that can change quickly.
Germany may not look like Germany on April 1. With any luck, Italy may not look quite so dire by then. To channel Donald Rumsfeld, there are unknown unknowns. For now, we are stuck with a paradox on either side of the Alps.
What's the COVID-19 death rate? I'll get back to you.
my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
Excusing China because you don’t like how our leadership handled this won’t help t change anything either. I’ve said for 4 or 5 years that China is a big problem for us. From the way they treat the environment to our debt and reliance on them. That needs to change. China hunting that they can control of US survives or not based on our reliance on them is very scary to me.
Unfortunately not much will change from their end as long as we depend on them as heavily as we do. We are their trust fund babies, and if they decide to let us go we’d be screwed.
Agreed to be dependent on Chinese nipple is the problem! So are we ready to give up everything that says made in China starting today? You think this administration is willing to say hey China your responsible for this virus outbreak were not dealing with you anymore? Just a couple of weeks ago the Baffoon was touting a Chinese deal..
Obviously we can just drop the Chinese nipple cold turkey. It would probably take at least a decade. And we’d have to give up $300 55” TVs most likely. But I don’t think it would be that bad in the end. More jobs here and not shipping all the way from China would help recover some of that cost. Ive also said before any green deal is completely pointless, actually will be harmful, until we are more self reliant. All that red tape does is just push more business to China where they don’t care about deals like that and in the end it’s worse for the environment.
i'm personally not a fan of celebrating, or "karma-ing" people getting this virus whom i disagree with politically. i have friends on facebook from alberta cheering that trudeau's wife tested, and now people here celebrating that a republican got it.
i find this deplorable, no matter your political leanings.
Right now, the US has more active cases than China. Hopefully we will movie in their negative direction soon, in the next couple months. We need to ride this out, do our part, demand our leaders do theirs. The WaPo is offering free CoVid coverage if anyone wants to keep track. I only check once a day.
Comments
I will continue to act on things within my control. Holding my leaders accountable being one of those things. If they fuck up I won't go looking somewhere else to blame just because they are on my team.
Hampton 2016
Hampton 2016
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
You picking up what I'm throwing down here?
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Good thoughts, thank you! There's never been a better time to try to be kind to our fellow humans.
They fought against giving their employees birth control as part of Obamacare because it went against their religious freedoms
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
I was discussing this with a friend last night. Once this pandemic is behind us, we need to take a long, hard look in the mirror and decide if we're going to continue to rely on China for everything.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/analysis-steven-lewis-why-covid-deadly-benign-1.5500288
An epidemiological mystery': Why Is COVID-19 so much deadlier in some countries than others?
What's the COVID-19 death rate? I'll get back to you
Imagine you're a chief public health officer and you're asked the question on everyone's mind: how deadly is the COVID-19 outbreak?
With the number of cases worldwide approaching 200,000, and 1,000 or more cases in 15 countries, you'd think there would be an answer. But the more data we see, the tougher it is to come up with a hard number.
Overall, the death rate is around four per cent — of reported cases. That's also the death rate in China, which to date accounts for just under half the total number of global cases.
China is the only country where a) the outcome of almost all cases is known (85 per cent have recovered), and b) the spread has been stopped (numbers plateaued about a month ago).
A four per cent death rate is pretty high — about 40 times more deadly than seasonal flu — but no experts believe that is the death rate. The latest estimate is that it is around 1.5 per cent. Other models suggest that it may be somewhat lower.
The true rate can be known only if every case is known and confirmed by testing — including the asymptomatic or relatively benign cases, which comprise 80 per cent or more of the total — and all cases have run their course (people have either recovered or died). Aside from those in China, almost all cases identified are still active.Unless a jurisdiction systematically tests a large random sample of its population, we may never know the true rate of infection or the real death rate.
Yet for all this unavoidable uncertainty, it is still odd that the rates vary so widely by country.
Extreme differences
The new epicentre of the outbreak is in Europe, so let's focus there.
The graph below shows the crude (not adjusted for age) death rates in the ten countries with the most reported cases (all 1,000 or higher).
Let's look at the European extremes: Italy and Germany. Italy has the most cases (28,000) but Germany has more than 7,000 and its number is growing rapidly. Yet Italy's death rate so far is 35 times higher than Germany's.
Moreover, only two of Germany's 7,200 active cases are classified as serious or critical, while in Italy it's 1,850 out of 21,000. In Canada there have been four deaths among 422 cases and only one of the 407 active cases is serious or critical.
What's going on here? No one has a ready answer.
The health care infrastructure in Italy and Germany is pretty much the same. Germany may be a week or two behind Italy in the pandemic, but in most countries the death rates seem higher at the beginning of the upsurge because the more serious cases are likely to present and be tested first.
Germany has promoted widespread testing, which is more likely to confirm non-serious cases and prevent them from coming into contact with more vulnerable groups, but so has Italy. And Italy took stronger measures to contain the virus than Germany.
Death rates are much higher in the elderly — as much as 15 per cent in the 80+ age group – and Italy has a relatively old population, but Germany has the oldest median age in Europe.
Does the German gene pool create some sort of uniquely effective immune response to just this novel coronavirus? Highly unlikely. Is the virus somehow different in Germany? Virtually impossible. Could German health care be that much more effective? Again, no.
Then what?At this point the discrepancies seem both massive and unexplained. If they converge in the next few weeks we will be closer to an explanation. It may be that Germany has thus far been lucky, with the exposures having occurred mainly among younger and healthier people. Or maybe Italy has been unlucky, with high rates of exposure in people with pre-existing health conditions that make them vulnerable.
If the perplexing differences remain after a few more weeks and tens of thousands — or millions — of new cases, we will have a barnburner of an epidemiological mystery on our hands.
The most revealing data over time will be the death rates in the oldest population groups, because the numbers are higher and the statistics will be more reliable. If these still vary hugely, a lot of analysts will be scratching a lot of heads.
Where is Canada headed? At this early stage, it looks more like Germany than Italy, but that can change quickly.
Germany may not look like Germany on April 1. With any luck, Italy may not look quite so dire by then. To channel Donald Rumsfeld, there are unknown unknowns. For now, we are stuck with a paradox on either side of the Alps.
What's the COVID-19 death rate? I'll get back to you.
Ive also said before any green deal is completely pointless, actually will be harmful, until we are more self reliant. All that red tape does is just push more business to China where they don’t care about deals like that and in the end it’s worse for the environment.
i find this deplorable, no matter your political leanings.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/?itid=hp_hp-banner-main_virus-resource-box-v3:homepage/story-ans