fauci seems to think that the US could be back to basically normal by april or july.
he is way overestimating (or underestimating, depending how you look at it) the anti-vax or just simply the lazy-vax crowd.
Interesting. I was half watching an interview with him on CNN this morning and something that caught my attention was even after you have been vaccinated you should wear a mask due to there being a chance of being in the 10% that it was ineffective.
Everything that I have read puts herd immunity with a vaccine or already having the virus around 60-70%. Is that the number we need to be at to be normal again? I do not think so. If by April the high risk group should all have had a chance at the vaccine. By June the general population will have had a couple months to have access to the shots. Depending on how fast they can roll it out that is a large chunk of the general population as well as hopefully the majority of the most vulnerable. Also factor in by the time the vaccine is out 20 million people in the states will have tested positive and will not need access to the vaccine. All of that considered I really think would be good enough for me to go back to normal by summer. There are a lot of things that need to happen for that to be possible and no hiccups with the vaccine but that is how I see it.
so we know this? does prior infection equal immunization?
As someone who is now in the “recovery phase” I’ve been trying to find info on this. No symptoms for two days in a row. Wife is still dealing with minor symptoms. My three year old is fucking crazy, so I assume he’s fine.
Best I’ve seen is studies are showing at least 4-7 months of immunity, but nothing saying total immunity. There have been enough cases of reinfection to show that people can get it more than once.
As for a vaccine providing immunity, I guess that will need more research and follow up studies. Will the vaccine by something like the flu shot that you’ll need every year? Will it be a one and done? Will that cause viral mutations that will require new vaccine development each year?
fauci seems to think that the US could be back to basically normal by april or july.
he is way overestimating (or underestimating, depending how you look at it) the anti-vax or just simply the lazy-vax crowd.
Interesting. I was half watching an interview with him on CNN this morning and something that caught my attention was even after you have been vaccinated you should wear a mask due to there being a chance of being in the 10% that it was ineffective.
Everything that I have read puts herd immunity with a vaccine or already having the virus around 60-70%. Is that the number we need to be at to be normal again? I do not think so. If by April the high risk group should all have had a chance at the vaccine. By June the general population will have had a couple months to have access to the shots. Depending on how fast they can roll it out that is a large chunk of the general population as well as hopefully the majority of the most vulnerable. Also factor in by the time the vaccine is out 20 million people in the states will have tested positive and will not need access to the vaccine. All of that considered I really think would be good enough for me to go back to normal by summer. There are a lot of things that need to happen for that to be possible and no hiccups with the vaccine but that is how I see it.
so we know this? does prior infection equal immunization?
As someone who is now in the “recovery phase” I’ve been trying to find info on this. Best I’ve seen is studies are showing at least 4-7 months of immunity, but nothing saying total immunity. There have been enough cases of reinfection to show that people can get it more than once.
As for a vaccine providing immunity, I guess that will need more research and follow up studies. Will the vaccine by something like the flu shot that you’ll need every year? Will it be a one and done? Will that cause viral mutations that will require new vaccine development each year?
from the speculation i've read so far, it might be a combination. it might not give one-and-done immunity, and even if it did for that particular strain, it's going to mutate and you'll need modifications to it each season.
my guess is covid is with us forever now, just like the common cold and influenza. but i'm not an infectious disease specialist nor epidemiologist. obviously. lol
10 employees currently out with Covid right now. Thankfully starting tomorrow, I move into the bakery for 2 weeks. Safer back there with less contact with members. Today was insanely busy. There is no 6 foot distancing happening.
Where I feel most vulnerable is in the main breakroom where of course the employees take their masks off. A smaller room was created for pre-work screenings so I will be taking my breaks/lunches in there.
I’m currently working around the Florida Georgia line in the panhandle. By all accounts you’d think the pandemic was over. About half of people wear masks, some that do wear below the nose. I went to pickup some to go food. Packed restaurant nobody was distancing and no masks. Why does this idiocy persist.
I’m currently working around the Florida Georgia line in the panhandle. By all accounts you’d think the pandemic was over. About half of people wear masks, some that do wear below the nose. I went to pickup some to go food. Packed restaurant nobody was distancing and no masks. Why does this idiocy persist.
You are in the panhandle.
Sorry, I'm sure there are some normal people that live there but to me that is your answer.
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hedonist
standing on the edge of forever Posts: 24,524
I’m currently working around the Florida Georgia line in the panhandle. By all accounts you’d think the pandemic was over. About half of people wear masks, some that do wear below the nose. I went to pickup some to go food. Packed restaurant nobody was distancing and no masks. Why does this idiocy persist.
I just can’t fathom how some are so blasé. Take yourself down if you must, but why drag others into it?
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brianlux
Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 40,974
10 employees currently out with Covid right now. Thankfully starting tomorrow, I move into the bakery for 2 weeks. Safer back there with less contact with members. Today was insanely busy. There is no 6 foot distancing happening.
Where I feel most vulnerable is in the main breakroom where of course the employees take their masks off. A smaller room was created for pre-work screenings so I will be taking my breaks/lunches in there.
I’m currently working around the Florida Georgia line in the panhandle. By all accounts you’d think the pandemic was over. About half of people wear masks, some that do wear below the nose. I went to pickup some to go food. Packed restaurant nobody was distancing and no masks. Why does this idiocy persist.
Stay safe, both of you. It sucks that so many people just don't care. Keep away from them as much as possible!
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
fauci seems to think that the US could be back to basically normal by april or july.
he is way overestimating (or underestimating, depending how you look at it) the anti-vax or just simply the lazy-vax crowd.
Interesting. I was half watching an interview with him on CNN this morning and something that caught my attention was even after you have been vaccinated you should wear a mask due to there being a chance of being in the 10% that it was ineffective.
Everything that I have read puts herd immunity with a vaccine or already having the virus around 60-70%. Is that the number we need to be at to be normal again? I do not think so. If by April the high risk group should all have had a chance at the vaccine. By June the general population will have had a couple months to have access to the shots. Depending on how fast they can roll it out that is a large chunk of the general population as well as hopefully the majority of the most vulnerable. Also factor in by the time the vaccine is out 20 million people in the states will have tested positive and will not need access to the vaccine. All of that considered I really think would be good enough for me to go back to normal by summer. There are a lot of things that need to happen for that to be possible and no hiccups with the vaccine but that is how I see it.
so we know this? does prior infection equal immunization?
As someone who is now in the “recovery phase” I’ve been trying to find info on this. No symptoms for two days in a row. Wife is still dealing with minor symptoms. My three year old is fucking crazy, so I assume he’s fine.
Best I’ve seen is studies are showing at least 4-7 months of immunity, but nothing saying total immunity. There have been enough cases of reinfection to show that people can get it more than once.
As for a vaccine providing immunity, I guess that will need more research and follow up studies. Will the vaccine by something like the flu shot that you’ll need every year? Will it be a one and done? Will that cause viral mutations that will require new vaccine development each year?
My opinion is we will be immune re infection is very rare and normally the first case is so mild its not made enough anti bodies. The vaccines provide very good levels of antibody response. Also immunity as in b cells . Antibodies will only be in the blood for a few months but the t-cells (memory cells) remember the infection and react if you come into contact again . So i am confident it will be very much confrolled and eventually gone. Like sar 1 the people who had that have cross immunity and still have the t-cells. There is hope.
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fauci seems to think that the US could be back to basically normal by april or july.
he is way overestimating (or underestimating, depending how you look at it) the anti-vax or just simply the lazy-vax crowd.
Interesting. I was half watching an interview with him on CNN this morning and something that caught my attention was even after you have been vaccinated you should wear a mask due to there being a chance of being in the 10% that it was ineffective.
Everything that I have read puts herd immunity with a vaccine or already having the virus around 60-70%. Is that the number we need to be at to be normal again? I do not think so. If by April the high risk group should all have had a chance at the vaccine. By June the general population will have had a couple months to have access to the shots. Depending on how fast they can roll it out that is a large chunk of the general population as well as hopefully the majority of the most vulnerable. Also factor in by the time the vaccine is out 20 million people in the states will have tested positive and will not need access to the vaccine. All of that considered I really think would be good enough for me to go back to normal by summer. There are a lot of things that need to happen for that to be possible and no hiccups with the vaccine but that is how I see it.
so we know this? does prior infection equal immunization?
As someone who is now in the “recovery phase” I’ve been trying to find info on this. No symptoms for two days in a row. Wife is still dealing with minor symptoms. My three year old is fucking crazy, so I assume he’s fine.
Best I’ve seen is studies are showing at least 4-7 months of immunity, but nothing saying total immunity. There have been enough cases of reinfection to show that people can get it more than once.
As for a vaccine providing immunity, I guess that will need more research and follow up studies. Will the vaccine by something like the flu shot that you’ll need every year? Will it be a one and done? Will that cause viral mutations that will require new vaccine development each year?
My opinion is we will be immune re infection is very rare and normally the first case is so mild its not made enough anti bodies. The vaccines provide very good levels of antibody response. Also immunity as in b cells . Antibodies will only be in the blood for a few months but the t-cells (memory cells) remember the infection and react if you come into contact again . So i am confident it will be very much confrolled and eventually gone. Like sar 1 the people who had that have cross immunity and still have the t-cells. There is hope.
Also i read that if you had a corona virus( one of the common colds) basically. You may have some immunity to covid thats why asymptomatic cases can happen .
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- Let me remind you of some starting points for the Swedish strategy: Our ambition is to implement the right measures at the right time.
- We use both recommendations and prohibitions, both advice and coercion. We also strive for the measures to be sustainable over time. That everyone should understand the importance of them, so that people have the best conditions to be able to follow rules and advice.
- In the spring, the measures had a powerful effect. In recent weeks, the advice has been sharpened, but despite this, the behavior has not been complied with enough. The curves are still pointing in the wrong direction.
- During the first half of last week, 4,600 cases per day were confirmed. In addition, the number of covid patients who need intensive care is increasing. During the spring, we made enormous efforts to increase the capacity of intensive care.
- We have the world's best healthcare staff, but no healthcare in the world can handle any load.
Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
Press conference scheduled, new expected to be expected.
Moderna just announced 94.5% effective rate and better storage temps. This is great news.
Outstanding news. 2 of the major vaccines showing 90%+ effectiveness so far is better than we could have hoped for a couple months ago. I remember some discussion a while back(possibly on CNN) with experts hoping for 70-75% effectiveness.
Press conference scheduled, new expected to be expected.
Moderna just announced 94.5% effective rate and better storage temps. This is great news.
It will be even better when/if they know the immunity level it provides. Is it 6 month, 1 year, or a lifetime. I also believe this is a single dose vaccine vs. the multiple dose that Pfizer has.
As much as I hope an effective vaccine becomes available, a part of me is a bit hesitant...
So, I'm thinking about taking a test like 2 weeks before christmas holidays and then stay at home for those two weeks (no shopping, not going to work etc).
Then I should be able to safely go to my moms place for the holidays. Obviously a bit of risk on the train there. But yeah...
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
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F Me In The Brain
this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 30,811
So, I'm thinking about taking a test like 2 weeks before christmas holidays and then stay at home for those two weeks (no shopping, not going to work etc).
Then I should be able to safely go to my moms place for the holidays. Obviously a bit of risk on the train there. But yeah...
If you fully quarantine for 2 weeks you would be fine, based on everything we have seen.
My mother and I discussed something similar last week, but my sister and her son live with my mother. This means she would need to quarantine from them as well before coming to our house, which we both know she will not do. So, as much as it sucks, it will be until there is a cure for this shit before we see her again. (She lives a 7 hour drive away, or else we could sit on opposite sides of the yard and speak, as we do with my wife's parents.)
So, I'm thinking about taking a test like 2 weeks before christmas holidays and then stay at home for those two weeks (no shopping, not going to work etc).
Then I should be able to safely go to my moms place for the holidays. Obviously a bit of risk on the train there. But yeah...
If you can do it (no work for 2 weeks?) that plan sounds great to minimize that risk.
Wear a mask properly on the train, wash your hands as soon as you get to your moms. Can also wear a mask and distance some in her house for a bit if you want. I hope you can make your plan work and get to see your mom this holiday. I have cancelled plans to see my dad at Thanksgiving and I am unsure if I will see my mom at xmas like was planned. I cannot quarantine for 14 days before...so I am unsure how ok I am with the risk I bring.
That is great news about a second potential vaccine.
We are in for an awful stretch this winter, but I feel like come the end of the Winter we will really turn the corner and put this thing behind us.
Agreed. Still waiting on the Oxford results too. That was the early favourite and hopeful they also had great success. The more vaccines in the market that work the better. Now to just have the means to distribute them in an efficient manner.
So, I'm thinking about taking a test like 2 weeks before christmas holidays and then stay at home for those two weeks (no shopping, not going to work etc).
Then I should be able to safely go to my moms place for the holidays. Obviously a bit of risk on the train there. But yeah...
If you can do it (no work for 2 weeks?) that plan sounds great to minimize that risk.
Wear a mask properly on the train, wash your hands as soon as you get to your moms. Can also wear a mask and distance some in her house for a bit if you want. I hope you can make your plan work and get to see your mom this holiday. I have cancelled plans to see my dad at Thanksgiving and I am unsure if I will see my mom at xmas like was planned. I cannot quarantine for 14 days before...so I am unsure how ok I am with the risk I bring.
I can work from home. We only come in 1-2 days per week me and my colleagues. So I think they and I can manage me working completely from home those weeks.
Yeah, and use the mask on the train.
My mom still works and stuff, but atleast then I know I haven't brought anything to her...
It's shit having to not meet ones relatives. And especially the older ones...
Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
That is great news about a second potential vaccine.
We are in for an awful stretch this winter, but I feel like come the end of the Winter we will really turn the corner and put this thing behind us.
I see your picture is a Sabres logo...I'm in Minnesota. So assuming you're in upstate New York, I think people in climates like ours are in for a brutal winter. In winter, we tend to need indoor activities in the great white north. I'm accepting the fact that this winter's going to be, at best, boring and the hope is that by next winter, we'll be much closer to normal. Work. Home projects. Movies. Indoor runs on the treadmill at home (I miss hitting the gym). Looking forward to spring and daylight time.
I kinda think the timing of early March for shutting down was OK...we were into manageable weather fairly quickly. The next few months is going to be rough...
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
That is great news about a second potential vaccine.
We are in for an awful stretch this winter, but I feel like come the end of the Winter we will really turn the corner and put this thing behind us.
I see your picture is a Sabres logo...I'm in Minnesota. So assuming you're in upstate New York, I think people in climates like ours are in for a brutal winter. In winter, we tend to need indoor activities in the great white north. I'm accepting the fact that this winter's going to be, at best, boring and the hope is that by next winter, we'll be much closer to normal. Work. Home projects. Movies. Indoor runs on the treadmill at home (I miss hitting the gym). Looking forward to spring and daylight time.
I kinda think the timing of early March for shutting down was OK...we were into manageable weather fairly quickly. The next few months is going to be rough...
Yeah, for sure. Numbers are rising here for the first time (we escaped the first wave because we shut down with NYC). Itll be rough. Kids' Hockey was just starting to open up a bit and now there are a bunch of limits and rules, and I expect it to be shut down in a week or 2. Same with indoor baseball practice. (luckily I build an outdoor rink).
Schools are next. We put the kids in a private school so they can go 5 days a week instead of 2 like the Public schools have. I do not expect it to last through November though. I will probably be able to work from home quite a bit again so we are fortunate.
Itll be a rough 3 months I think, but once the vaccine starts hitting the streets and the oldies and sickies get it as well as the essential workers, things will start to open up a great deal. I expect March to be the start of the "curve" heading to normalcy
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy today on schools and some new restrictions:
Murphy did say schools continue to be a positive point during the pandemic, with 52 cases of in-school transmission in the state out of about 3,000 buildings.
Asked if the state will close schools if numbers reach a certain level, the governor said: “I hope not. Our school experience has actually been a good one so far.”
“Schools, by the way, are a good example of when you prepare properly, you socially distance, you put barriers up, you mandate masking,” he said on WPIX. “That’s the reason why we’re seeing a low level of transmission in schools — because they’re doing it the right way.”
Private indoor gatherings will be dropped from 25 to 10 people and outdoor gatherings from 500 to 150 people with the winter holidays fast approaching, Murphy said.
But the governor said the change does not affect the current 25% capacity limits on indoor dining in the state. Plus, current indoor limits on weddings, funerals, movie theaters, performances, religious services, and political activities — up to 25% of a venue’s capacity, with a maximum of 150 people — will remain, Murphy’s office told NJ Advance Media. Outdoor religious services and political activities will continue to have no limit.
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And creating their own!
Best I’ve seen is studies are showing at least 4-7 months of immunity, but nothing saying total immunity. There have been enough cases of reinfection to show that people can get it more than once.
As for a vaccine providing immunity, I guess that will need more research and follow up studies. Will the vaccine by something like the flu shot that you’ll need every year? Will it be a one and done? Will that cause viral mutations that will require new vaccine development each year?
my guess is covid is with us forever now, just like the common cold and influenza. but i'm not an infectious disease specialist nor epidemiologist. obviously. lol
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Back to normal by next winter. That is way too long imo. If the vulnerable are all vaccinated why would we need to wait until next winter....
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Sorry, I'm sure there are some normal people that live there but to me that is your answer.
Stay safe, both of you. It sucks that so many people just don't care. Keep away from them as much as possible!
The vaccines provide very good levels of antibody response.
Also immunity as in b cells . Antibodies will only be in the blood for a few months but the t-cells (memory cells) remember the infection and react if you come into contact again . So i am confident it will be very much confrolled and eventually gone. Like sar 1 the people who had that have cross immunity and still have the t-cells.
There is hope.
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ventilation is key
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- Let me remind you of some starting points for the Swedish strategy: Our ambition is to implement the right measures at the right time.
- We use both recommendations and prohibitions, both advice and coercion. We also strive for the measures to be sustainable over time. That everyone should understand the importance of them, so that people have the best conditions to be able to follow rules and advice.
- In the spring, the measures had a powerful effect. In recent weeks, the advice has been sharpened, but despite this, the behavior has not been complied with enough. The curves are still pointing in the wrong direction.
- During the first half of last week, 4,600 cases per day were confirmed. In addition, the number of covid patients who need intensive care is increasing. During the spring, we made enormous efforts to increase the capacity of intensive care.
- We have the world's best healthcare staff, but no healthcare in the world can handle any load.
2 of the major vaccines showing 90%+ effectiveness so far is better than we could have hoped for a couple months ago. I remember some discussion a while back(possibly on CNN) with experts hoping for 70-75% effectiveness.
As much as I hope an effective vaccine becomes available, a part of me is a bit hesitant...
Then I should be able to safely go to my moms place for the holidays. Obviously a bit of risk on the train there. But yeah...
We are in for an awful stretch this winter, but I feel like come the end of the Winter we will really turn the corner and put this thing behind us.
Wear a mask properly on the train, wash your hands as soon as you get to your moms. Can also wear a mask and distance some in her house for a bit if you want. I hope you can make your plan work and get to see your mom this holiday. I have cancelled plans to see my dad at Thanksgiving and I am unsure if I will see my mom at xmas like was planned. I cannot quarantine for 14 days before...so I am unsure how ok I am with the risk I bring.
Yeah, and use the mask on the train.
My mom still works and stuff, but atleast then I know I haven't brought anything to her...
It's shit having to not meet ones relatives. And especially the older ones...
I see your picture is a Sabres logo...I'm in Minnesota. So assuming you're in upstate New York, I think people in climates like ours are in for a brutal winter. In winter, we tend to need indoor activities in the great white north. I'm accepting the fact that this winter's going to be, at best, boring and the hope is that by next winter, we'll be much closer to normal. Work. Home projects. Movies. Indoor runs on the treadmill at home (I miss hitting the gym). Looking forward to spring and daylight time.
I kinda think the timing of early March for shutting down was OK...we were into manageable weather fairly quickly. The next few months is going to be rough...
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Schools are next. We put the kids in a private school so they can go 5 days a week instead of 2 like the Public schools have. I do not expect it to last through November though. I will probably be able to work from home quite a bit again so we are fortunate.
Itll be a rough 3 months I think, but once the vaccine starts hitting the streets and the oldies and sickies get it as well as the essential workers, things will start to open up a great deal. I expect March to be the start of the "curve" heading to normalcy
Murphy did say schools continue to be a positive point during the pandemic, with 52 cases of in-school transmission in the state out of about 3,000 buildings.
Asked if the state will close schools if numbers reach a certain level, the governor said: “I hope not. Our school experience has actually been a good one so far.”
“Schools, by the way, are a good example of when you prepare properly, you socially distance, you put barriers up, you mandate masking,” he said on WPIX. “That’s the reason why we’re seeing a low level of transmission in schools — because they’re doing it the right way.”
Private indoor gatherings will be dropped from 25 to 10 people and outdoor gatherings from 500 to 150 people with the winter holidays fast approaching, Murphy said.
But the governor said the change does not affect the current 25% capacity limits on indoor dining in the state. Plus, current indoor limits on weddings, funerals, movie theaters, performances, religious services, and political activities — up to 25% of a venue’s capacity, with a maximum of 150 people — will remain, Murphy’s office told NJ Advance Media. Outdoor religious services and political activities will continue to have no limit.