Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.
I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.
Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:
Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.
In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.
Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.
Everything that you've posted seems to jibe with the most reasonable stuff I've read. Meanwhile, two neighboring towns near me are requiring people to wear masks even outside with the threat of a $300 fine hanging over it.
My (I think) unpopular opinion is that a lot of Governors are getting higher marks than they deserve, only because people are contrasting their leadership to Trump.
Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.
I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.
Good luck, man. This is going to start happening quite a bit I suspect. The whole thing is a mess with very few good answers at this point. So many people I know are chomping at the bit to get everything opened back up. I understand the need to slowly open up certain parts of life in phases, but I know a lot of people that think a full on re-opening needs to take place. We cannot just turn the light switch from off to on without repercussions.
The US Secretary of State assumed that the corona virus is man-made - and comes from a lab in China.
State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell dismisses the statement as "rumors and myths".
- I haven't seen any evidence pointing in that direction, he tells Aftonbladet.
ZIP IT TEGNELL. LETS NOT GET A TRADE WAR ON OUR HANDS!
Yeah, it ticks me off that some of these politicians/ heads of state etc. are turning the pandemic into international conflict. Says a lot about the inherent nature of humans who are in power to be prone to conflict and war. Makes a good argument for anarchy.
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.
I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.
Oh man, I'm sorry to hear that. I would insist on fellow workers distancing, and having hand sanitizer at the workplace. I hope you can continue to work at home as many days as possible. Maybe there is some way you can illustrate to them that you have been more productive working at home?
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.
I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.
Oh man, I'm sorry to hear that. I would insist on fellow workers distancing, and having hand sanitizer at the workplace. I hope you can continue to work at home as many days as possible. Maybe there is some way you can illustrate to them that you have been more productive working at home?
That's what I'm planning on doing during my meeting with them this afternoon. Fingers crossed....
Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.
I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.
Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:
Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.
In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.
Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.
Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.
I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.
Good luck, man. This is going to start happening quite a bit I suspect. The whole thing is a mess with very few good answers at this point. So many people I know are chomping at the bit to get everything opened back up. I understand the need to slowly open up certain parts of life in phases, but I know a lot of people that think a full on re-opening needs to take place. We cannot just turn the light switch from off to on without repercussions.
Agreed that just opening up everything right away would be reckless but this 5 phase plan that our billionaire governor released yesterday is just overkill at this point. There won't be many businesses left with this plan once they are allowed to re-open. And meanwhile his wife just went to their Florida mansion while he gets up there everyday telling all of us to stay home and not take part in any unnecessary travel. Just because he doesn't like Trump doesn't mean he isn't the typical scumbag politician.
Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.
I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.
Good luck, man. This is going to start happening quite a bit I suspect. The whole thing is a mess with very few good answers at this point. So many people I know are chomping at the bit to get everything opened back up. I understand the need to slowly open up certain parts of life in phases, but I know a lot of people that think a full on re-opening needs to take place. We cannot just turn the light switch from off to on without repercussions.
Agreed that just opening up everything right away would be reckless but this 5 phase plan that our billionaire governor released yesterday is just overkill at this point. There won't be many businesses left with this plan once they are allowed to re-open. And meanwhile his wife just went to their Florida mansion while he gets up there everyday telling all of us to stay home and not take part in any unnecessary travel. Just because he doesn't like Trump doesn't mean he isn't the typical scumbag politician.
Agreed. Coming into this I didn’t like one thing Pritzker had done in this state; however, I felt he handled things well initially in regards to Covid by making swift decisions. After revealing his 5 phase plan yesterday, I’m back where I started with him. I’m strongly against turning on the light switch all at once, but like you said, his 5 phase plan is overkill and will decimate a state that’s already beyond broke, despite being one of the highest taxed states, and leads the country in resident outflow. He is definitely your typical hypocrite politician. “Do as I say, not as I do.”
Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.
I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.
Good luck, man. This is going to start happening quite a bit I suspect. The whole thing is a mess with very few good answers at this point. So many people I know are chomping at the bit to get everything opened back up. I understand the need to slowly open up certain parts of life in phases, but I know a lot of people that think a full on re-opening needs to take place. We cannot just turn the light switch from off to on without repercussions.
Agreed that just opening up everything right away would be reckless but this 5 phase plan that our billionaire governor released yesterday is just overkill at this point. There won't be many businesses left with this plan once they are allowed to re-open. And meanwhile his wife just went to their Florida mansion while he gets up there everyday telling all of us to stay home and not take part in any unnecessary travel. Just because he doesn't like Trump doesn't mean he isn't the typical scumbag politician.
Agreed. Coming into this I didn’t like one thing Pritzker had done in this state; however, I felt he handled things well initially in regards to Covid by making swift decisions. After revealing his 5 phase plan yesterday, I’m back where I started with him. I’m strongly against turning on the light switch all at once, but like you said, his 5 phase plan is overkill and will decimate a state that’s already beyond broke, despite being one of the highest taxed states, and leads the country in resident outflow. He is definitely your typical hypocrite politician. “Do as I say, not as I do.”
Admittedly, I was not familiar with the five-phase plan...in a quick google, it looks like there's no timelime attached to it. The destruction it could cause is probably difficult to determine for that reason.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Today I had to go to a local E.R. for work reasons. Only needed to go as far as the waiting area which was eerily empty and quiet. The nurses and support staff looked exhausted. The one senior staff member I talked to told me they foresee no dip in numbers for at least another 3 weeks. I made sure to thank them for their work.
What if there is never a vaccine? Seems like everyone just assumes it will be on the shelves in the fall.
Might never be, in which case we likely get waves of this repeatedly until the population builds some level of natural immunity, assuming that happens.
If we get neither a vaccine nor natural immunity from prior exposure then we’re stuck with this until the science advances, kind of like how the world was before we had vaccines for most of the common infectious diseases.
my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.
I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.
That sounds like a solid approach I hope it works out!
Yup....back in the office on Monday. It looks like there will be ample distance between all employees, but it still makes me a tad nervous. Ugh.
it can be done safely in many environments. Takes some planning and effort and of course compliance from employees (which is generally the hardest part).
Yup....back in the office on Monday. It looks like there will be ample distance between all employees, but it still makes me a tad nervous. Ugh.
Good luck. I hope your employer takes this seriously.
I have been at work in my office, so to speak, through all of this so I’m used to it. We’re still doing our best to keep social distance and washing our hands and surfaces like mad. It’s darkly amusing at times to be in a meeting with seven or eight people in a very large meeting room and we’re all spread around the perimeter of the room, more than fifteen feet apart. We’re just kind of shouting at each other.
my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
What if there is never a vaccine? Seems like everyone just assumes it will be on the shelves in the fall.
Johan Giesecke also says it is not certain that a vaccine will be particularly effective.
- Right now we do not know if you become immune after this disease, or if the immunity is sufficient and how long it lasts. But in all diseases it is better to have had the disease than the vaccine. The infection gives a more complete immunity than the vaccine.
- If now the natural immunity is semi-poor, you should not expect that the vaccine will be much better.
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
Sorry, not trying to start a bummer thought with the potential of no vaccine ... I'm optimistic that the tens of thousands of very smart people throughout the planet working around the clock probably have several promising solutions cooking as we speak.
Sorry, not trying to start a bummer thought with the potential of no vaccine ... I'm optimistic that the tens of thousands of very smart people throughout the planet working around the clock probably have several promising solutions cooking as we speak.
No need to apologize, it's a very real possibility. Better to be clear eyed about all this.
Sorry, not trying to start a bummer thought with the potential of no vaccine ... I'm optimistic that the tens of thousands of very smart people throughout the planet working around the clock probably have several promising solutions cooking as we speak.
No need to apologize, it's a very real possibility. Better to be clear eyed about all this.
Yes, I agree. Early on in this thread there was some objection to posting about projected numbers of cases, fatalities, etc. because it was viewed as unnecessarily pessimistic. We’re hip-deep in reality right now and we might as well be able to talk about it.
my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
Comments
My (I think) unpopular opinion is that a lot of Governors are getting higher marks than they deserve, only because people are contrasting their leadership to Trump.
Yeah, it ticks me off that some of these politicians/ heads of state etc. are turning the pandemic into international conflict. Says a lot about the inherent nature of humans who are in power to be prone to conflict and war. Makes a good argument for anarchy.
Oh man, I'm sorry to hear that. I would insist on fellow workers distancing, and having hand sanitizer at the workplace. I hope you can continue to work at home as many days as possible. Maybe there is some way you can illustrate to them that you have been more productive working at home?
https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/health-workers-that-volunteered-to-come-to-ny-during-pandemic-have-to-pay-state-income-tax-cuomo
Some careful "re-opening" is going to be necessary, but I wouldn't be to cavalier in speaking about an action that will likely lead to more deaths.
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Only needed to go as far as the waiting area which was eerily empty and quiet. The nurses and support staff looked exhausted. The one senior staff member I talked to told me they foresee no dip in numbers for at least another 3 weeks.
I made sure to thank them for their work.
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https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/covid-19-provincial-support/bc-restart-plan?bcgovtm=20200506_GCPE_AM_COVID_9_NOTIFICATION_BCGOV_BCGOV_EN_BC__NOTIFICATION