I can't imagine anyone taking a cruise any time in the near future...like before there's not only a vaccine but a significant amount of "normal" time has passed.
I'll never take one (never really wanted to, anyway, but even if I did, there's no way I'd be doing it in 2020).
😂😂😂😂 You don't use Facebook, do you? Fat morons will line up in the thousands to pack those cruise ships, as long as they still have Mountain Dew at the buffet!
Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.
I can't imagine anyone taking a cruise any time in the near future...like before there's not only a vaccine but a significant amount of "normal" time has passed.
I'll never take one (never really wanted to, anyway, but even if I did, there's no way I'd be doing it in 2020).
😂😂😂😂 You don't use Facebook, do you? Fat morons will line up in the thousands to pack those cruise ships, as long as they still have Mountain Dew at the buffet!
Especially if the trough is open 24/7 Just pile it on my walmart xxxxl stretch pants can handle it
German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than we thought
At UnHerd, we’ve spoken to experts at both ends of the range of estimates, from Neil Ferguson (who believes the IFR to be just under 1%, perhaps 0.8-0.9%) to Johan Giesecke who maintains that it is nearer 0.1%.
This may sound like splitting hairs – they are both under one percent after all – but in reality the difference between these estimates changes everything. At the lower end, a much more laissez-faire policy becomes possible, and at 30,000 deaths it starts to look like the UK has already been through the worst of it; at the higher end, a policy of continued ultra-caution is necessary because a more relaxed approach could mean hundreds of thousands of additional deaths.
That’s why the study conducted by Professor Hendrik Streeck of the University of Bonn is so significant: a fully representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.
Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.
I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.
Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:
Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.
I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.
Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:
Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.
California will be allowing some business’s to re-open Friday.
Gov. Newsom did mention that today but he said these will be retail businesses open for curbside pickup only. In other words, not open- open. We'll see what happens Friday- things do change a bit from day to day and week to week, but so far it's just for curbside pickup.
We have one guy at the bookstore who might work the store some days. The rest of us are over 65 and staying home for now. Personally, I'm staying home until this thing is over or until hell freezes over, which ever comes first. I re-opened my on line book sales though, so I have a few bucks trickling in.
@Brianlux Do you have an online store website or do you use Amazon? I figured it would not be “marketing” if inquiring minds asked for a link here
I can't imagine anyone taking a cruise any time in the near future...like before there's not only a vaccine but a significant amount of "normal" time has passed.
I'll never take one (never really wanted to, anyway, but even if I did, there's no way I'd be doing it in 2020).
😂😂😂😂 You don't use Facebook, do you? Fat morons will line up in the thousands to pack those cruise ships, as long as they still have Mountain Dew at the buffet!
Woah! There's Mountain Dew at the fancy Buffet?!? Count me in!!
^ The cute guy that invited me to the Wheelhouse had a lime in his beverage, too! Not sure about Dr. Pepper, though!
Watching flics in the hot tub and visiting Fjord-type locals, my Pipsqueak learned Horse on the b-ball court, and the pool is empty when in Port, which is a new Co-Vid consideration,..
My next cruise will have a younger demographic with less risk and fear!
Recently leaked documents appear to show the Trump admin has a model that expects 200,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths per day by June 1, and that this model has frequently underestimated the number of cases and deaths to date (This despite pundits' howling that "models" have been exaggerated).
The admin might also be relying on a model that claims, fantastically, that this all goes away ten days from now.
California will be allowing some business’s to re-open Friday.
Gov. Newsom did mention that today but he said these will be retail businesses open for curbside pickup only. In other words, not open- open. We'll see what happens Friday- things do change a bit from day to day and week to week, but so far it's just for curbside pickup.
We have one guy at the bookstore who might work the store some days. The rest of us are over 65 and staying home for now. Personally, I'm staying home until this thing is over or until hell freezes over, which ever comes first. I re-opened my on line book sales though, so I have a few bucks trickling in.
@Brianlux Do you have an online store website or do you use Amazon? I figured it would not be “marketing” if inquiring minds asked for a link here
Thanks for asking, PJPOWER. I'm not a big Amazon fan- mainly because in the past Jeff Bezos has been aggressive about wanting to take over the used book market to the point of creating a market where other on-line book sales sites as well as brick and mortar bookstores and other businesses struggle greatly to stay afloat. But on the other hand, during this pandemic, Amazon has literally been a lifesaver by making it possible for people like my sister to get food and goods with out having to risk going out to the store. For that, I am grateful.
At the risk of engagingly in shameless self-promotion, my books are on biblio.com and are listed under A Quiet Corner For Books.
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
California will be allowing some business’s to re-open Friday.
Gov. Newsom did mention that today but he said these will be retail businesses open for curbside pickup only. In other words, not open- open. We'll see what happens Friday- things do change a bit from day to day and week to week, but so far it's just for curbside pickup.
We have one guy at the bookstore who might work the store some days. The rest of us are over 65 and staying home for now. Personally, I'm staying home until this thing is over or until hell freezes over, which ever comes first. I re-opened my on line book sales though, so I have a few bucks trickling in.
@Brianlux Do you have an online store website or do you use Amazon? I figured it would not be “marketing” if inquiring minds asked for a link here
Thanks for asking, PJPOWER. I'm not a big Amazon fan- mainly because in the past Jeff Bezos has been aggressive about wanting to take over the used book market to the point of creating a market where other on-line book sales sites as well as brick and mortar bookstores and other businesses struggle greatly to stay afloat. But on the other hand, during this pandemic, Amazon has literally been a lifesaver by making it possible for people like my sister to get food and goods with out having to risk going out to the store. For that, I am grateful.
At the risk of engagingly in shameless self-promotion, my books are on biblio.com and are listed under A Quiet Corner For Books.
Watching Gov Cuomo's update today on youtube. This guy has my respect. He calls it like he sees it. Incredible talk about the value of a human life. Opening vs stay at home. Starts at .45 secs. Watch if you have time.
California will be allowing some business’s to re-open Friday.
Gov. Newsom did mention that today but he said these will be retail businesses open for curbside pickup only. In other words, not open- open. We'll see what happens Friday- things do change a bit from day to day and week to week, but so far it's just for curbside pickup.
We have one guy at the bookstore who might work the store some days. The rest of us are over 65 and staying home for now. Personally, I'm staying home until this thing is over or until hell freezes over, which ever comes first. I re-opened my on line book sales though, so I have a few bucks trickling in.
@Brianlux Do you have an online store website or do you use Amazon? I figured it would not be “marketing” if inquiring minds asked for a link here
Thanks for asking, PJPOWER. I'm not a big Amazon fan- mainly because in the past Jeff Bezos has been aggressive about wanting to take over the used book market to the point of creating a market where other on-line book sales sites as well as brick and mortar bookstores and other businesses struggle greatly to stay afloat. But on the other hand, during this pandemic, Amazon has literally been a lifesaver by making it possible for people like my sister to get food and goods with out having to risk going out to the store. For that, I am grateful.
At the risk of engagingly in shameless self-promotion, my books are on biblio.com and are listed under A Quiet Corner For Books.
Cool, I’ll check er’ out !
Thanks!
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than we thought
At UnHerd, we’ve spoken to experts at both ends of the range of estimates, from Neil Ferguson (who believes the IFR to be just under 1%, perhaps 0.8-0.9%) to Johan Giesecke who maintains that it is nearer 0.1%.
This may sound like splitting hairs – they are both under one percent after all – but in reality the difference between these estimates changes everything. At the lower end, a much more laissez-faire policy becomes possible, and at 30,000 deaths it starts to look like the UK has already been through the worst of it; at the higher end, a policy of continued ultra-caution is necessary because a more relaxed approach could mean hundreds of thousands of additional deaths.
That’s why the study conducted by Professor Hendrik Streeck of the University of Bonn is so significant: a fully representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.
The Streeck study? You’re kidding, right? He’s the dude who claims based on antibody testing in one small German town the CFR is almost as low as the flu at 0.37%?
You know there are significant problems with the antibody tests and none have been properly vetted? You know if you account for population difference Sweden would have about 90,000 fatalities when comparing to USA?
Johan Giesecke has an article this morning in THE LANCET
The invisible pandemic
Many countries (and members of their press media) have marvelled at Sweden's relaxed strategy in the face of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: schools and most workplaces have remained open, and police officers were not checking one's errands in the street. Severe critics have described it as Sweden sacrificing its (elderly) citizens to quickly reach herd immunity.1 The death toll has surpassed our three closest neighbours, Denmark, Norway, and Finland, but the mortality remains lower than in the UK, Spain, and Belgium.2
It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect.3 Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK's experience with that of other European countries.
/.../
These facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.
More propaganda SC? Sweden is 6th in the world in deaths per million, of countries with at least 10,000 cases. No thank you. People start sacrificing their parents grandparents aunts and uncles and I guarantee you “the economy” is screwed long term.
The point of “delaying cases“ is to keep critical healthcare resources from being overwhelmed, to let doctors learn how to successfully treat “severe cases” and give scientists time to hopefully develop treatments.
You went from pro sanders to pro trump rhetoric in months.
More propaganda SC? Sweden is 6th in the world in deaths per million, of countries with at least 10,000 cases. No thank you. People start sacrificing their parents grandparents aunts and uncles and I guarantee you “the economy” is screwed long term.
The point of “delaying cases“ is to keep critical healthcare resources from being overwhelmed, to let doctors learn how to successfully treat “severe cases” and give scientists time to hopefully develop treatments.
You went from pro sanders to pro trump rhetoric in months.
Johan Giesecke has an article this morning in THE LANCET
The invisible pandemic
Many countries (and members of their press media) have marvelled at Sweden's relaxed strategy in the face of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: schools and most workplaces have remained open, and police officers were not checking one's errands in the street. Severe critics have described it as Sweden sacrificing its (elderly) citizens to quickly reach herd immunity.1 The death toll has surpassed our three closest neighbours, Denmark, Norway, and Finland, but the mortality remains lower than in the UK, Spain, and Belgium.2
It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect.3 Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK's experience with that of other European countries.
/.../
These facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.
It seems to me that Sweden's neighbors are the right comparison of strategies, vs Spain, UK, etc. Second, flattening the curve and not overwhelming hospitals was a prime objective. But now that Remdesivir shows promise to reduce symptoms and recovery time, and it sounds like there are vaccine opportunities, it seems to me that holding out as long as possible from a further spread would be beneficial. I haven't followed all of this commentary on the Swedish model, but this defense feels like a bit of a reach.
Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.
I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.
Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:
Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.
In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.
Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.
my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.
I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.
Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:
Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.
In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.
Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.
Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.
I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.
Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:
Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.
In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.
Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.
Bunch of NDP commies.
Absolutely!
my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
You went from pro sanders to pro trump rhetoric in months.
Does this mean that Trump believes Universal healthcare should be the very baseline of a citizens right, arguing for some good ol'e social democratic welfare state safety nets at his rallies and considers Jason X to be very much underrated in the Friday the 13th film series?
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.
I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.
Comments
You don't use Facebook, do you?
Fat morons will line up in the thousands to pack those cruise ships, as long as they still have Mountain Dew at the buffet!
Just pile it on my walmart xxxxl stretch pants can handle it
German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than we thought
At UnHerd, we’ve spoken to experts at both ends of the range of estimates, from Neil Ferguson (who believes the IFR to be just under 1%, perhaps 0.8-0.9%) to Johan Giesecke who maintains that it is nearer 0.1%.
I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.
Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/b-c-looking-for-sweet-spot-when-it-comes-to-opening-province-back-up-1.24129434
Not sure about Dr. Pepper, though!
Watching flics in the hot tub and visiting Fjord-type locals, my Pipsqueak learned Horse on the b-ball court, and the pool is empty when in Port, which is a new Co-Vid consideration,..
My next cruise will have a younger demographic with less risk and fear!
2008 Tampa - 2013 Buffalo - 2016 Tampa - 2016 Fenway II
Audioslave 2005 MSG
Dr. Anders Tegnell - Sweden’s Decision Not to Impose Quarantine | The Daily Social Distancing Show
https://youtu.be/ypwoyVl5Dxk
Thanks!
Trump poised to wind down Covid-19 taskforce as US death toll tops 70,000
The invisible pandemic
More at the link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext
The point of “delaying cases“ is to keep critical healthcare resources from being overwhelmed, to let doctors learn how to successfully treat “severe cases” and give scientists time to hopefully develop treatments.
You went from pro sanders to pro trump rhetoric in months.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.
Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.
Prague Krakow Berlin 2018. Berlin 2022
EV, Taormina 1+2 2017.
I wish i was the souvenir you kept your house key on..
ZIP IT TEGNELL. LETS NOT GET A TRADE WAR ON OUR HANDS!
I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.
www.cluthelee.com
www.cluthe.com