Shut out once again. Ten Club, I would like an explanation

pjl44

Folks, we just got confirmation that one indeed was user error. Now we're down to one anomaly. Let's relax.

tinz.

moses-i said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

moses-i said:

For all the "you picked GA or bust so it's your own fault ppl"...I did Toronto and Hamilton BA. In that order. And the probability works this way: it is 99% for each show then getting Toronto as your third pick is .99^3 which is about .97 or 97%. While getting Toronto as your first pick should 99%. In fact that is an oversimplification, I assumed that tickets were replaced on each draw or that there are basically infinity tickets. So if the draw is done as it APPEARS it should (I.e. you pick from first priority ppl first then 2nd and 3rd and so on) it is basically impossible for someone to get a Toronto 3rd pick over a Toronto 1st.

What? The percentage chance, you can only use for your 1st choice. 2nd, 3rd you can't use math for - because it depends on how many has put it on their list and the amount of tickets available.

The ones who put it as 2nd choice are only able to get one if there are tickets left after the 1st choice-round (as in, there were more tickets than fans putting it as their 1st choice). Then the rest of the tickets are given out at random to those who put it as the 2nd choice. And then of there are tickets left, the lottery go down to the ones who has put it as their 3rd choice.

As I said, it is an oversimplification that assumes the odds stay the same with each round. Your explanation of the system as we understand proves by point-it is impossible to get shut out at a first choice pick while others get it at third.

Seems odd, are you confident there was not an issue with your credit card? 

Lerxst1992

JojoRice said:

Lerxst1992 said:

JojoRice said:

kristophed said:

Just looked again at the email I read this morning about not getting tickets. The email was only in reference to not getting tickets for the Hamilton show. It did not say anything about the Toronto show?

Anyone with a rejection email know if it states all the shows you selected in the email?

Each show is a separate email.

Hi Jo, thinking back to the 2016 odds the Canada shows didnt all have 99%? 

I'm thinking the odds were off but that doesn't explain how there are winners in round 4 and losers in round 1

This is shaping up as a potential problem for everyone who thinks they "won" tickets yesterday 

For 2016 odds...
Quebec 44/84
Ottawa 28/56
Toronto 11/37

Thanks Jo 

There is no way with one TO show the odds would be 99% coming from 37%. Perhaps they have a few thousand more tix this time but not enough to cover a 2nd show.

But the inaccurate odds doesn't  explain how we have round 3 and 4 BA winners and round 1 and 2 BA losers

aidt17

Lerxst1992 said:

aidt17 said:

Step 2. On the resulting Ticket Request site, sign in to your Ticketmaster account, or create a new one if you don’t have one. Your name under your Ticketmaster account must match your name under your Ten Club  membership account.  

This was step 2 on the pre sale ticket info page.  

His email said "due to demand." Did you read this topic before that low energy attempt to explain?

Yes his email did say due to demand but his ticketmaster account and 10 club account were not in line with each other.  I was just posting step 2 as someone was saying that there was no mention that the accounts had to reflect one another

jerparker20

Lerxst1992 said:

jerparker20 said:

Get_Right said:

Lostpawn said:

Get_Right said:

The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.

That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice.  So no, it's not an odds issue.

LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.

Correct. Other unknown factors:

How many tickets per venue were actually allocated to the 10club.  Were identical amounts allocated for each venue? Were more tickets secured for some venues and less at others? 

How were the ticket odds actually calculated? How often were the odds being updated? Was there a large last minute submittal of ticket requests that would have caused the actual odds to be off at the moment of the draw and the site was not updated? How were submissions of “best available” classified in the odds, or were they even included in the odds calculation?

How were the ticket draws actually done? Let’s say there were 5,000 tickets per venue available. And they put 3000 tickets in the “first priority” draw. Those who had first priority, but not selected got bumped into “second priority” draw with 1000 tickets with all the people who had made that selection, and so on?

No one here actually knows how the draw went. No where in any communication was there language that everyone would be guaranteed tickets if the odds showed 99%. If someone really sleuthed around the ticket site they’d probably find language stating that the reflected odds may not be accurate or considered accurate.

sometimes people get lucky, sometimes things suck.

Thanks for reading this topic carefully before that long comment.  The odds have always been simple. And the odds were never before 99% for most shows. So simple explanation is the odds are wrong

But that does not explain how 2 fans lost 4 shows total that were 99%, including first and second priority picks where others won tickets with 3rd and 4th picks.

If you have statistical proof how that is a valid occurance in a random 99% draw, please share.

Are you 100% sure that the stated 99% odds were 100% accurate? Or are the stated odds “for entertainment purposes only”? We don’t know.

Also the ticket request was stated as being a lottery, not a ticket request guarantee. Lottery implies a chance of winning and chance of losing. 99% still means you have 1% chance of losing. Don’t have to like it, but it is what it is.

moses-i

BennyLaRue said:

aidt17 said:

Side note my buddy didn’t have his Ticketmaster account in line with his 10 club account and his “loser” email said they just couldn’t fulfill his order. Not that he made a user error 

Need to repost this, could be very key.

Is this possibly what happened, moses-i?

No, the rules said name on account needs to be the same, which they both are. My credit card also matches the name on both accounts. The only difference is that I have different emails. But my ticketmaster account email is literally my full name.

BennyLaRue

Lerxst1992 said:

aidt17 said:

Step 2. On the resulting Ticket Request site, sign in to your Ticketmaster account, or create a new one if you don’t have one. Your name under your Ticketmaster account must match your name under your Ten Club  membership account.  

This was step 2 on the pre sale ticket info page.  

His email said "due to demand." Did you read this topic before that low energy attempt to explain?

And we seen to have a confirmed case, that I reposted in this thread, of someone who received the same email but had a name-matching issue.

mace1229

Get_Right said:

Lostpawn said:

Get_Right said:

Lostpawn said:

Get_Right said:

The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.

That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice.  So no, it's not an odds issue.

LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.

So you are suggesting the the priority that you put on your request is meaningless?  That's the only way your idea of "he just didn't picked" would make any sense at all.  I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt here.

I am suggesting that when they stuck their hand in the bag to pull out a name, his was not pulled.  Nobody really knows the process. Its a crapshoot and always has been. Pontificating the why is a waste of time.  

That isn’t true, they have shared the process. All priority 1s get chosen before any priority 2s. At least that what they claimed before and stated this one is not different.

Zod

jdizzle8291 said:

PJNB said:

jerparker20 said:

Get_Right said:

Lostpawn said:

Get_Right said:

The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.

That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice.  So no, it's not an odds issue.

LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.

Correct. Other unknown factors:

How many tickets per venue were actually allocated to the 10club.  Were identical amounts allocated for each venue? Were more tickets secured for some venues and less at others? 

How were the ticket odds actually calculated? How often were the odds being updated? Was there a large last minute submittal of ticket requests that would have caused the actual odds to be off at the moment of the draw and the site was not updated? How were submissions of “best available” classified in the odds, or were they even included in the odds calculation?

How were the ticket draws actually done? Let’s say there were 5,000 tickets per venue available. And they put 3000 tickets in the “first priority” draw. Those who had first priority, but not selected got bumped into “second priority” draw with 1000 tickets with all the people who had made that selection, and so on?

No one here actually knows how the draw went. No where in any communication was there language that everyone would be guaranteed tickets if the odds showed 99%. If someone really sleuthed around the ticket site they’d probably find language stating that the reflected odds may not be accurate or considered accurate.

sometimes people get lucky, sometimes things suck.

They do not do it that way. Why are we complicating things. 

If there is 5000 pairs to be won and 10,000 people put in for them odds are at 50%

They draw first priority first (crazy I know). Lets say 4000 people put in as a first pick. All of those people are selected and win their show thus giving them all 100% true odds. 

They then move on to second priority (crazy again I know)  Lets say 4000 people put in for it as a second pick. Only 1000 pairs are left so only 25% of these people are going to win. Their true odds are 25% and the majority of the second picks lose out. 

3rd and 4th get nothing since there are no more tickets left and their true odds are 0%. 

Could you simplify this, please?

It's first come first serve.  The have so many tickets.  They go to people who select first priority first.  Only if there are any leftover, does 2nd priority get any.  Only if everyone in 2nd priority gets there orders filled, should it spill to 3rd, or 4th etc....

The wierd case with the original poster is he chose best available and had it as his 1st choice.  Other people are getting those tickets in later rounds.   Ergo his order should of been filled, before any tickets spilled over to later rounds.

My question is if the original poster ever changed his selection.   Presumably the system overwrites your original request if you put in a new one.  Maybe that glitched?

F Me In The Brain

Lerxst1992 said:

jerparker20 said:

Get_Right said:

Lostpawn said:

Get_Right said:

The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.

That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice.  So no, it's not an odds issue.

LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.

Correct. Other unknown factors:

How many tickets per venue were actually allocated to the 10club.  Were identical amounts allocated for each venue? Were more tickets secured for some venues and less at others? 

How were the ticket odds actually calculated? How often were the odds being updated? Was there a large last minute submittal of ticket requests that would have caused the actual odds to be off at the moment of the draw and the site was not updated? How were submissions of “best available” classified in the odds, or were they even included in the odds calculation?

How were the ticket draws actually done? Let’s say there were 5,000 tickets per venue available. And they put 3000 tickets in the “first priority” draw. Those who had first priority, but not selected got bumped into “second priority” draw with 1000 tickets with all the people who had made that selection, and so on?

No one here actually knows how the draw went. No where in any communication was there language that everyone would be guaranteed tickets if the odds showed 99%. If someone really sleuthed around the ticket site they’d probably find language stating that the reflected odds may not be accurate or considered accurate.

sometimes people get lucky, sometimes things suck.

Thanks for reading this topic carefully before that long comment.  The odds have always been simple. And the odds were never before 99% for most shows. So simple explanation is the odds are wrong

But that does not explain how 2 fans lost 4 shows total that were 99%, including first and second priority picks where others won tickets with 3rd and 4th picks.

If you have statistical proof how that is a valid occurance in a random 99% draw, please share.

We are overlooking the potential for user error and jumping to computer error.  I think the probabilities associated with human error are generally much higher than computer error.

If we had a hundred fans having the same experience I might be more open to this.

No way for us to know that the naming, the cards, the multiple submissions/checks on the odds...all sorts of things could have caused a small error which resulting in the poor folks not getting what they desired.

This is not anything against those users, I just tend to trust computers processing correctly more than humans going through a number of steps in a process correctly.

Lerxst1992

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Or it's a cc error on their end and they sent the wrong email.

Trying to come up with a explanation that does not involve an error on their end.

This is looking really bad for TM.

Of all of the people saying they won, we've had two on this thread here saying they didn't. In the five pages since, one of them admitted they screwed up their re-entry and omitted Toronto. Again, it absolutely confounds me how people think Ticketmaster would go to great lengths to execute a dastardly plan to profit disproportionately this one time, and risk a severed relationship for every time forward and jump to this conclusion as the "most reasonable". I don't buy it for a second.

FYI, those saying they're worried about people who selected Best Available not being selected - I selected BA for Toronto and won that as my first go. 

I'm usually one who defends TM here and never said they have a "plan." I am saying it looks like an error. 

Hurls15

benjs said:

Of all of the people saying they won, we've had two on this thread here saying they didn't. In the five pages since, one of them admitted they screwed up their re-entry and omitted Toronto. Again, it absolutely confounds me how people think Ticketmaster would go to great lengths to execute a dastardly plan to profit disproportionately this one time, and risk a severed relationship for every time forward and jump to this conclusion as the "most reasonable". I don't buy it for a second.

FYI, those saying they're worried about people who selected Best Available not being selected - I selected BA for Toronto and won that as my first go. 

Agree.......but.....I watched people receiving their 2nd (and in once case 3rd) priority Toronto BA confirmation email prior to me receiving my 1st priority Toronto BA confirmation.  And yes I was refreshing email. 

That says to me that there was something more than just a simple emptying of the priority buckets.

Zod

Lerxst1992 said:

aidt17 said:

Step 2. On the resulting Ticket Request site, sign in to your Ticketmaster account, or create a new one if you don’t have one. Your name under your Ticketmaster account must match your name under your Ten Club  membership account.  

This was step 2 on the pre sale ticket info page.  

His email said "due to demand." Did you read this topic before that low energy attempt to explain?

To be fair, if it's an automated process of sending out that email it may or may not be correct.  It's a standard form email.. I never trust those

benjs

ecdanc said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Or it's a cc error on their end and they sent the wrong email.

Trying to come up with a explanation that does not involve an error on their end.

This is looking really bad for TM.

Of all of the people saying they won, we've had two on this thread here saying they didn't. In the five pages since, one of them admitted they screwed up their re-entry and omitted Toronto. Again, it absolutely confounds me how people think Ticketmaster would go to great lengths to execute a dastardly plan to profit disproportionately this one time, and risk a severed relationship for every time forward and jump to this conclusion as the "most reasonable". I don't buy it for a second.

FYI, those saying they're worried about people who selected Best Available not being selected - I selected BA for Toronto and won that as my first go. 

I don't think they have a dastardly plan. I do think they can and will fuck up. 

If you've ever programmed or worked with programmers in the past, you know how it goes. There are variables input by users, processing done by systems based on the variables, and attempts to consider the variables to predict the outputs. A fuck-up on a platform means a failure to consider variables adequately or a failure to process in the correct way for that unique set of variables. Ultimately, there aren't enough variables at play here (or incidents reported) that make me suspicious of Ticketmaster failures - I more think this is a case of PEBCAK.

ecdanc

Lerxst1992 said:

JojoRice said:

Lerxst1992 said:

JojoRice said:

kristophed said:

Just looked again at the email I read this morning about not getting tickets. The email was only in reference to not getting tickets for the Hamilton show. It did not say anything about the Toronto show?

Anyone with a rejection email know if it states all the shows you selected in the email?

Each show is a separate email.

Hi Jo, thinking back to the 2016 odds the Canada shows didnt all have 99%? 

I'm thinking the odds were off but that doesn't explain how there are winners in round 4 and losers in round 1

This is shaping up as a potential problem for everyone who thinks they "won" tickets yesterday 

For 2016 odds...
Quebec 44/84
Ottawa 28/56
Toronto 11/37

Thanks Jo 

There is no way with one TO show the odds would be 99% coming from 37%. Perhaps they have a few thousand more tix this time but not enough to cover a 2nd show.

But the inaccurate odds doesn't  explain how we have round 3 and 4 BA winners and round 1 and 2 BA losers

Agreed. There was speculation during the signup period that the odds might work differently than many (most?) presumed, but if what you describe is true (and I don't have any good reason to doubt you) something got seriously fucked up.  

Zod

Has the original posters scenario been repeated?  Are there other people who lost out on TO that selected best available in round 1?

BRWilly

Now I'm curious how the "Best Available" option actually works...Do we actually know the "Best Available" is basically equivalent to just doing reserved. Maybe it went in this order GA --> Reserved --> Best Available. In this case once all GA only and reserved only names were drawn, then Best Available gets drawn and is given GA (if any left, unlikely) or Reserved.

In this case it could be possible that lots of us who selected "Best Available as a, why not crapshoot for GA and then I'll just get reserved in the end" are actually lower down on the priority list for getting picked then we thought.

All this said, it's clear that if you put a show Best Available as #1 priority and someone else had the same selection as #3 priority, the #1 should be logically get it over #3. Just speculating if we really know how this all worked this time around is all.

BennyLaRue

moses-i said:

BennyLaRue said:

aidt17 said:

Side note my buddy didn’t have his Ticketmaster account in line with his 10 club account and his “loser” email said they just couldn’t fulfill his order. Not that he made a user error 

Need to repost this, could be very key.

Is this possibly what happened, moses-i?

No, the rules said name on account needs to be the same, which they both are. My credit card also matches the name on both accounts. The only difference is that I have different emails. But my ticketmaster account email is literally my full name.

Ok, then it's possible this is the issue. The data is likely checked by computer and that algorithm wouldn't be intelligent enough to know "oh, the email is his full name so it's ok".

This is possibly just a simple error, not a systematic issue, and I would hope support will hook you up.

Parksy

JBob87 said:

PJNB said:

Get_Right said:

Lostpawn said:

Get_Right said:

Lostpawn said:

Get_Right said:

The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.

That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice.  So no, it's not an odds issue.

LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.

So you are suggesting the the priority that you put on your request is meaningless?  That's the only way your idea of "he just didn't picked" would make any sense at all.  I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt here.

I am suggesting that when they stuck their hand in the bag to pull out a name, his was not pulled.  Nobody really knows the process. Its a crapshoot and always has been. Pontificating the why is a waste of time.  

I get that and you really do never know but why are you ignoring how the system is supposed to work? Priority is priority and we choose some shows ahead of others for a reason. There is no way a 3rd pick for TO should win and a 1st pick loses. That is a broken system and should be fixed. 

This is the point that everyone explaining this a “bad luck” seems to be missing. Pretty cut and dry with how we know and have always known the lottery to work.

+1

moses-i

Zod said:

jdizzle8291 said:

PJNB said:

jerparker20 said:

Get_Right said:

Lostpawn said:

Get_Right said:

The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.

That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice.  So no, it's not an odds issue.

LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.

Correct. Other unknown factors:

How many tickets per venue were actually allocated to the 10club.  Were identical amounts allocated for each venue? Were more tickets secured for some venues and less at others? 

How were the ticket odds actually calculated? How often were the odds being updated? Was there a large last minute submittal of ticket requests that would have caused the actual odds to be off at the moment of the draw and the site was not updated? How were submissions of “best available” classified in the odds, or were they even included in the odds calculation?

How were the ticket draws actually done? Let’s say there were 5,000 tickets per venue available. And they put 3000 tickets in the “first priority” draw. Those who had first priority, but not selected got bumped into “second priority” draw with 1000 tickets with all the people who had made that selection, and so on?

No one here actually knows how the draw went. No where in any communication was there language that everyone would be guaranteed tickets if the odds showed 99%. If someone really sleuthed around the ticket site they’d probably find language stating that the reflected odds may not be accurate or considered accurate.

sometimes people get lucky, sometimes things suck.

They do not do it that way. Why are we complicating things. 

If there is 5000 pairs to be won and 10,000 people put in for them odds are at 50%

They draw first priority first (crazy I know). Lets say 4000 people put in as a first pick. All of those people are selected and win their show thus giving them all 100% true odds. 

They then move on to second priority (crazy again I know)  Lets say 4000 people put in for it as a second pick. Only 1000 pairs are left so only 25% of these people are going to win. Their true odds are 25% and the majority of the second picks lose out. 

3rd and 4th get nothing since there are no more tickets left and their true odds are 0%. 

Could you simplify this, please?

It's first come first serve.  The have so many tickets.  They go to people who select first priority first.  Only if there are any leftover, does 2nd priority get any.  Only if everyone in 2nd priority gets there orders filled, should it spill to 3rd, or 4th etc....

The wierd case with the original poster is he chose best available and had it as his 1st choice.  Other people are getting those tickets in later rounds.   Ergo his order should of been filled, before any tickets spilled over to later rounds.

My question is if the original poster ever changed his selection.   Presumably the system overwrites your original request if you put in a new one.  Maybe that glitched?

Never changed my choices. Locked in day one and didn't look back.