North American Tour Odds

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  • tdawe
    tdawe Posts: 2,091
    Saltzy23 said:
    I am standing by my hypothesis that these are tickets that were allocated to TM for the Verified Fan and General sale that will never see the light of day are being leaked to 3rd parties so that they can post them and then split the profits.

    It just makes too much sense for that not to be what it is.

    It's what happens anytime the market price for something is higher than the MSRP.

    Eventually the retailer is like 'Fuck this.  I'm bypassing the official channels and selling these for what they are actually worth.'


    Sure but "naked short selling" on StubHub is also a well known issue.
    Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 2024
  • Saltzy23
    Saltzy23 Posts: 1,350
    tdawe said:
    Saltzy23 said:
    I am standing by my hypothesis that these are tickets that were allocated to TM for the Verified Fan and General sale that will never see the light of day are being leaked to 3rd parties so that they can post them and then split the profits.

    It just makes too much sense for that not to be what it is.

    It's what happens anytime the market price for something is higher than the MSRP.

    Eventually the retailer is like 'Fuck this.  I'm bypassing the official channels and selling these for what they are actually worth.'


    Sure but "naked short selling" on StubHub is also a well known issue.
    Agreed.
    'I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine.'
  • ecdanc
    ecdanc Posts: 1,814
    edited January 2020
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    Because anything below 99% is, according to your description, not actually odds for any one person (because of the ranking system). That's not to say the % is meaningless, just that it doesn't meaningfully represent odds for any specific case. 

    I'm inclined to believe you're right about what the number represents, but I don't think many people here are "confused" about the odds. Rather, we think they are useless beyond the most broad sense of demand. 
    Post edited by ecdanc on
  • JP218404
    JP218404 NJ Posts: 1,412
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    cut the numbers in half has this doesn't count for the 5K asking for a pair.  5K put first choice at 10K of tickets.  they all get.  no one after would
    Marquee 91
    Wetlands 91
    CBGB 91
    Roseland 91
    and many, many more
  • gotthebottle
    gotthebottle San Diego Posts: 3,770
    Saltzy23 said:
    I am standing by my hypothesis that these are tickets that were allocated to TM for the Verified Fan and General sale that will never see the light of day are being leaked to 3rd parties so that they can post them and then split the profits.

    It just makes too much sense for that not to be what it is.

    It's what happens anytime the market price for something is higher than the MSRP.

    Eventually the retailer is like 'Fuck this.  I'm bypassing the official channels and selling these for what they are actually worth.'


    that's why I put NO FAITH in the Verified Fan sale and think the only way to really be sure you get in is through 10C
  • given2fly23
    given2fly23 Evanston, IL Posts: 6,042
    I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.
    Found: Soundgarden Hyde Park DVD (Thank you for the gift!)
    Posters for Sale: http://community.pearljam.com/discussion/117469/posters-for-sale
    T-Shirts for Sale: http://community.pearljam.com/discussion/149289/pj-t-shirt-trade-or-sale
  • JR86440
    JR86440 Posts: 753
    given2fly23 said:
    I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.
    They update twice a day. Doubt the computer is wrong
  • tdawe
    tdawe Posts: 2,091
    given2fly23 said:
    I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.
    Those who are saying that the displayed odds are not actually reflective of your particular chances for a given show (since they don't account for priorities) are correct. However, I think the one think the one thing you CAN definitively tell from the displayed odds is that if it says 99%, that means anyone who chose that option (regardless of priority level) is going to get tickets. I suppose there is an outside chance that the odds actually ARE 99% and 1% of the entries really will not get drawn, but by and large 99% seems to denote "there are more tickets available for this option than there are total lottery entries for it."
    Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 2024
  • jonsey30
    jonsey30 Rochester Hills, MI Posts: 1,005
    The presale is officially closed, right?  So excited to see if I’m GA or Reserved for Hamilton.  Happy with either
    7/19/13 - Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
    10/11/13 - Pittsburgh, PA
    10/12/13 - Buffalo, NY
    10/16/2014 - Detroit, MI
    5/10/2016 - Toronto, ON
    3/24/2020 - Hamilton, ON
    9/7/2023 - Chicago, IL

  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    jonsey30 said:
    The presale is officially closed, right?  So excited to see if I’m GA or Reserved for Hamilton.  Happy with either
    3am eastern tomorrow
  • jonsey30
    jonsey30 Rochester Hills, MI Posts: 1,005
    Oh, I read that as noon PT today.  My bad!
    7/19/13 - Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
    10/11/13 - Pittsburgh, PA
    10/12/13 - Buffalo, NY
    10/16/2014 - Detroit, MI
    5/10/2016 - Toronto, ON
    3/24/2020 - Hamilton, ON
    9/7/2023 - Chicago, IL

  • MD190661
    MD190661 Posts: 394
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    10/1/94, 6/22/95, 6/24/95, 9/16/96, 7/22/98, 10/21/01, 6/1/03, 10/25/03, 10/26/03, 9/1/05, 7/15/06, 7/18/06, 8/28/09, 10/07/09, 10/3/12, 11/26/13, 6/18/18, 8/10/18, 5/12/22, 5/13/22, 5/13/24, 5/25/24




  • gotthebottle
    gotthebottle San Diego Posts: 3,770
    edited January 2020
    jonsey30 said:
    The presale is officially closed, right?  So excited to see if I’m GA or Reserved for Hamilton.  Happy with either
    If that's the only show you asked for I'll bet you'll be happy!!
  • chukdotcom
    chukdotcom Posts: 757
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
  • MD190661
    MD190661 Posts: 394
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    10/1/94, 6/22/95, 6/24/95, 9/16/96, 7/22/98, 10/21/01, 6/1/03, 10/25/03, 10/26/03, 9/1/05, 7/15/06, 7/18/06, 8/28/09, 10/07/09, 10/3/12, 11/26/13, 6/18/18, 8/10/18, 5/12/22, 5/13/22, 5/13/24, 5/25/24




  • given2fly23
    given2fly23 Evanston, IL Posts: 6,042
    JR86440 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.
    They update twice a day. Doubt the computer is wrong
    That's not what I mean, at all.  The question is where were the "best available" people allocated for purposes of the odds?  Based on the numbers, I think they were allocated to the GA pot.  That means that once GA is sold out, the remaining "best available" people will spill over into the "reserved" pot and that will drastically change the "reserved" odds.  Again, I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't see how for a majority of the shows they could have more reserved tickets than were requested by both the "reserved" entries and the "best available" entries. That is what would be needed to have 99% odds.


    Found: Soundgarden Hyde Park DVD (Thank you for the gift!)
    Posters for Sale: http://community.pearljam.com/discussion/117469/posters-for-sale
    T-Shirts for Sale: http://community.pearljam.com/discussion/149289/pj-t-shirt-trade-or-sale
  • Allspread
    Allspread Posts: 33
    gotthebottle said:
    Saltzy23 said:
    I am standing by my hypothesis that these are tickets that were allocated to TM for the Verified Fan and General sale that will never see the light of day are being leaked to 3rd parties so that they can post them and then split the profits.

    It just makes too much sense for that not to be what it is.

    It's what happens anytime the market price for something is higher than the MSRP.

    Eventually the retailer is like 'Fuck this.  I'm bypassing the official channels and selling these for what they are actually worth.'


    that's why I put NO FAITH in the Verified Fan sale and think the only way to really be sure you get in is through 10C
    Having been through Verified Fan for other concerts - it's a shitshow.  Pray 10C comes through.  My request is in.
  • ecdanc
    ecdanc Posts: 1,814
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Do you *know* this is the case? Or do you surmise it's the case?
  • RatherStarved
    RatherStarved Posts: 5,773
    I once lost an 82% odds as a first priority.  I guess that show must have had a lot of people choosing it first.  I couldn’t believe it when it happened.  There is nothing automatic.
    PJ: 2013: London (ON); Buffalo; 2014: Cincinnati; 2016: Sunrise, Miami, Toronto 1-2, Wrigley 2; 2018: London (UK) 1, Milan, Padova, Sea 2, Wrigley 1-2, Fenway 1-2; 2021: SHN, Ohana, Ohana Encore 1-2; 2022: LA 1-2, Phx, Oak 1-2, Fresno, Copenhagen, Hyde Park 1-2; Quebec, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto; MSG, Camden, Nashville, Louisville, St. Louis, OKC; 2023: St. Paul 1-2, Chicago 1-2; Fort Worth 2; Austin 1-2; 2024:  Vancouver 1-2, LV 1-2, LA 1-2, Napa, Barcelona 1-2; Indy; Chicago 1-2; MSG 1-2; Philly 2; Boston 2; Ohana 1-2; 2025: FL 1-2, ATL 1-2, Nash 1-2, Pit 1-2.
     
    EV Solo: 2017 Louisville and Franklin, 2018 Ohana, 2019 Innings Fest, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Dublin and Ohana; 2021 Ohana Friday (from beach) and Saturday; 2022 Earthlings Newark; 2023 Innings Fest and Benoraya 1-2.

    Gutted:  London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
  • chukdotcom
    chukdotcom Posts: 757
    ecdanc said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Do you *know* this is the case? Or do you surmise it's the case?
    I would say "surmise" since I have no inside knowledge.

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