North American Tour Odds

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  • MD190661
    MD190661 Posts: 394
    given2fly23 said:
    JR86440 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.
    They update twice a day. Doubt the computer is wrong
    That's not what I mean, at all.  The question is where were the "best available" people allocated for purposes of the odds?  Based on the numbers, I think they were allocated to the GA pot.  That means that once GA is sold out, the remaining "best available" people will spill over into the "reserved" pot and that will drastically change the "reserved" odds.  Again, I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't see how for a majority of the shows they could have more reserved tickets than were requested by both the "reserved" entries and the "best available" entries. That is what would be needed to have 99% odds.


    I think they do have more spots than requests so far. I bet most orders are best available and that automatically gets added to the GA odds pool. Say they have 5000 GA spots and another 5k reserved. If the odds for GA are at 50%, then that show has gotten 10k best available requests. 5k will get GA and 5k will get reserved. So 100% odds reserved is accurate. For most shows they have way more than 5k reserved. Probably close to 10k. (I also think the pit is smaller than 5k, but I wanted to make it easy). Does this make sense?
    10/1/94, 6/22/95, 6/24/95, 9/16/96, 7/22/98, 10/21/01, 6/1/03, 10/25/03, 10/26/03, 9/1/05, 7/15/06, 7/18/06, 8/28/09, 10/07/09, 10/3/12, 11/26/13, 6/18/18, 8/10/18, 5/12/22, 5/13/22, 5/13/24, 5/25/24




  • ecdanc
    ecdanc Posts: 1,814
    chukdotcom said:
    ecdanc said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Do you *know* this is the case? Or do you surmise it's the case?
    I would say "surmise" since I have no inside knowledge.
    Thanks, that's what I was wondering. I presume we don't have many posters here with inside info (on this aspect), but I thought I'd check. 
  • cutz
    cutz Posts: 12,236
    FW46778 said:
    There is no priority for this one run by Ticketmaster
    There is a priority. You can drop and drag the shows in the preference order you like.
  • boxorbagman
    boxorbagman Posts: 51
    GA should always be easy to trade for Reserve correct?
  • Vedd Hedd
    Vedd Hedd Posts: 4,631
    MD190661 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    JR86440 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.
    They update twice a day. Doubt the computer is wrong
    That's not what I mean, at all.  The question is where were the "best available" people allocated for purposes of the odds?  Based on the numbers, I think they were allocated to the GA pot.  That means that once GA is sold out, the remaining "best available" people will spill over into the "reserved" pot and that will drastically change the "reserved" odds.  Again, I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't see how for a majority of the shows they could have more reserved tickets than were requested by both the "reserved" entries and the "best available" entries. That is what would be needed to have 99% odds.


    I think they do have more spots than requests so far. I bet most orders are best available and that automatically gets added to the GA odds pool. Say they have 5000 GA spots and another 5k reserved. If the odds for GA are at 50%, then that show has gotten 10k best available requests. 5k will get GA and 5k will get reserved. So 100% odds reserved is accurate. For most shows they have way more than 5k reserved. Probably close to 10k. (I also think the pit is smaller than 5k, but I wanted to make it easy). Does this make sense?
    Agreed, and I bet very few people are "reserved only", so those GA odds are dropping quick. 
    Turn this anger into
    Nuclear fission
  • gotthebottle
    gotthebottle San Diego Posts: 3,770
    boxorbagman said:
    GA should always be easy to trade for Reserve correct?
    except you can't trade....if you don't want GA you have to sell it in the exchange
  • gotthebottle
    gotthebottle San Diego Posts: 3,770
    Vedd Hedd said:
    MD190661 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    JR86440 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.
    They update twice a day. Doubt the computer is wrong
    That's not what I mean, at all.  The question is where were the "best available" people allocated for purposes of the odds?  Based on the numbers, I think they were allocated to the GA pot.  That means that once GA is sold out, the remaining "best available" people will spill over into the "reserved" pot and that will drastically change the "reserved" odds.  Again, I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't see how for a majority of the shows they could have more reserved tickets than were requested by both the "reserved" entries and the "best available" entries. That is what would be needed to have 99% odds.


    I think they do have more spots than requests so far. I bet most orders are best available and that automatically gets added to the GA odds pool. Say they have 5000 GA spots and another 5k reserved. If the odds for GA are at 50%, then that show has gotten 10k best available requests. 5k will get GA and 5k will get reserved. So 100% odds reserved is accurate. For most shows they have way more than 5k reserved. Probably close to 10k. (I also think the pit is smaller than 5k, but I wanted to make it easy). Does this make sense?
    Agreed, and I bet very few people are "reserved only", so those GA odds are dropping quick. 
    and it doesn't do you any more good to put reserved only instead of best available....it just depends on when your name gets pulled, IF it does
  • astev09
    astev09 Posts: 60
    Anyone have an update on St. Louis odds? Been at work all day and haven’t kept up! 
  • gotthebottle
    gotthebottle San Diego Posts: 3,770
    astev09 said:
    Anyone have an update on St. Louis odds? Been at work all day and haven’t kept up! 
    25/99
  • iOnlyownMymind
    iOnlyownMymind Posts: 2,953
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    I believe they decide the order of Reserved by seniority after all tickets are accounted for and wouldn't matter if you get reserved as a second choice?  If you have a bad 10c number I don't think you will be closer if you have it as a first choice as opposed to second.  That is my understanding anyway. 
  • Bentleyspop
    Bentleyspop Craft Beer Brewery, Colorado Posts: 11,420
    iOnlyownMymind said:
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    I believe they decide the order of Reserved by seniority after all tickets are accounted for and wouldn't matter if you get reserved as a second choice?  If you have a bad 10c number I don't think you will be closer if you have it as a first choice as opposed to second.  That is my understanding anyway. 
    Reserved seating locations are based solely on seniority. 
  • Celticskemba8
    Celticskemba8 Posts: 339
    edited January 2020
    gotthebottle said:
    Vedd Hedd said:
    MD190661 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    JR86440 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.
    They update twice a day. Doubt the computer is wrong
    That's not what I mean, at all.  The question is where were the "best available" people allocated for purposes of the odds?  Based on the numbers, I think they were allocated to the GA pot.  That means that once GA is sold out, the remaining "best available" people will spill over into the "reserved" pot and that will drastically change the "reserved" odds.  Again, I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't see how for a majority of the shows they could have more reserved tickets than were requested by both the "reserved" entries and the "best available" entries. That is what would be needed to have 99% odds.


    I think they do have more spots than requests so far. I bet most orders are best available and that automatically gets added to the GA odds pool. Say they have 5000 GA spots and another 5k reserved. If the odds for GA are at 50%, then that show has gotten 10k best available requests. 5k will get GA and 5k will get reserved. So 100% odds reserved is accurate. For most shows they have way more than 5k reserved. Probably close to 10k. (I also think the pit is smaller than 5k, but I wanted to make it easy). Does this make sense?
    Agreed, and I bet very few people are "reserved only", so those GA odds are dropping quick. 
    and it doesn't do you any more good to put reserved only instead of best available....it just depends on when your name gets pulled, IF it does
    So should I put best available or just reserved as I want reserved only, don’t want to stand or does it make more sense to put both just in case. Only putting in for one show too. (QC)
    Post edited by Celticskemba8 on
  • bootlegger10
    bootlegger10 Posts: 16,256
    Probably go in order of the tour.  So Canada finds out first and the west coast crowd are waiting until the 19th?   
  • ajflicker
    ajflicker Canada Posts: 166
    MD190661 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    JR86440 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.
    They update twice a day. Doubt the computer is wrong
    That's not what I mean, at all.  The question is where were the "best available" people allocated for purposes of the odds?  Based on the numbers, I think they were allocated to the GA pot.  That means that once GA is sold out, the remaining "best available" people will spill over into the "reserved" pot and that will drastically change the "reserved" odds.  Again, I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't see how for a majority of the shows they could have more reserved tickets than were requested by both the "reserved" entries and the "best available" entries. That is what would be needed to have 99% odds.


    I think they do have more spots than requests so far. I bet most orders are best available and that automatically gets added to the GA odds pool. Say they have 5000 GA spots and another 5k reserved. If the odds for GA are at 50%, then that show has gotten 10k best available requests. 5k will get GA and 5k will get reserved. So 100% odds reserved is accurate. For most shows they have way more than 5k reserved. Probably close to 10k. (I also think the pit is smaller than 5k, but I wanted to make it easy). Does this make sense?
    I was wondering that as well because I want to change my priority from best available to RS for the Hamilton and Toronto show. If the odds stay 99% for both shows at the deadline does that mean you are guaranteed a seat if thats your priority?
  • bootlegger10
    bootlegger10 Posts: 16,256
    ajflicker said:
    MD190661 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    JR86440 said:
    given2fly23 said:
    I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.
    They update twice a day. Doubt the computer is wrong
    That's not what I mean, at all.  The question is where were the "best available" people allocated for purposes of the odds?  Based on the numbers, I think they were allocated to the GA pot.  That means that once GA is sold out, the remaining "best available" people will spill over into the "reserved" pot and that will drastically change the "reserved" odds.  Again, I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't see how for a majority of the shows they could have more reserved tickets than were requested by both the "reserved" entries and the "best available" entries. That is what would be needed to have 99% odds.


    I think they do have more spots than requests so far. I bet most orders are best available and that automatically gets added to the GA odds pool. Say they have 5000 GA spots and another 5k reserved. If the odds for GA are at 50%, then that show has gotten 10k best available requests. 5k will get GA and 5k will get reserved. So 100% odds reserved is accurate. For most shows they have way more than 5k reserved. Probably close to 10k. (I also think the pit is smaller than 5k, but I wanted to make it easy). Does this make sense?
    I was wondering that as well because I want to change my priority from best available to RS for the Hamilton and Toronto show. If the odds stay 99% for both shows at the deadline does that mean you are guaranteed a seat if thats your priority?
    One would think so.  Makes sense if you don’t want GA.
  • MD190661
    MD190661 Posts: 394
    Bentleyspop said:
    iOnlyownMymind said:
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    I believe they decide the order of Reserved by seniority after all tickets are accounted for and wouldn't matter if you get reserved as a second choice?  If you have a bad 10c number I don't think you will be closer if you have it as a first choice as opposed to second.  That is my understanding anyway. 
    Reserved seating locations are based solely on seniority. 

    iOnlyownMymind said:
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    I believe they decide the order of Reserved by seniority after all tickets are accounted for and wouldn't matter if you get reserved as a second choice?  If you have a bad 10c number I don't think you will be closer if you have it as a first choice as opposed to second.  That is my understanding anyway. 
    Yes, but if you are putting in for more than 1 show, everyone who has your second choice as their first choice gets tickets before you. So 10 Club member #1 gets what left after 10 Club member 700000 gets their seats. 
    10/1/94, 6/22/95, 6/24/95, 9/16/96, 7/22/98, 10/21/01, 6/1/03, 10/25/03, 10/26/03, 9/1/05, 7/15/06, 7/18/06, 8/28/09, 10/07/09, 10/3/12, 11/26/13, 6/18/18, 8/10/18, 5/12/22, 5/13/22, 5/13/24, 5/25/24




  • ecdanc
    ecdanc Posts: 1,814
    MD190661 said:
    Bentleyspop said:
    iOnlyownMymind said:
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    I believe they decide the order of Reserved by seniority after all tickets are accounted for and wouldn't matter if you get reserved as a second choice?  If you have a bad 10c number I don't think you will be closer if you have it as a first choice as opposed to second.  That is my understanding anyway. 
    Reserved seating locations are based solely on seniority. 

    iOnlyownMymind said:
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    MD190661 said:
    chukdotcom said:
    MD190661 said:
    hihobibo said:
    mace1229 said:
    Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
    I understand it like this....
    if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
    Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

    Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
    This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

    Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 
    So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 
    Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

    Choice 1:  100 people
    Choice 2:  100 people
    Choice 3:  100 people
    Choice 4:  100 people
    Choice 5:  100 people

    The odds will be 99% (100% really...).
    Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  
    I believe they decide the order of Reserved by seniority after all tickets are accounted for and wouldn't matter if you get reserved as a second choice?  If you have a bad 10c number I don't think you will be closer if you have it as a first choice as opposed to second.  That is my understanding anyway. 
    Yes, but if you are putting in for more than 1 show, everyone who has your second choice as their first choice gets tickets before you. So 10 Club member #1 gets what left after 10 Club member 700000 gets their seats. 
    No, I fear you're conflating two discrete steps in the process:

    Step 1: Ticket allocation. This operates as a lottery. 
    Step 2: Seat assignment. This operates solely by seniority.

    Thus, whether you GET seats might be determined as you describe, but where those seats are is based entirely on seniority. 
  • Saltzy23
    Saltzy23 Posts: 1,350
    So, I work in corporate at a high end fashion company and my office is right next door the Director of Loss Prevention, who's whole job is to make sure no product slips out the back door.

    I just told him about the whole 'speculation listings and sales' on StubHub and asked what he thought was going on.

    Instead of giving me his opinion he was like, "Why don't I just reach out to the guy that does my job at Ticketmaster and ask him.  I've known him for years."

    Anyway, hopefully I should have an answer from the actual source soon as to where these tickets are coming from.

    I'll keep you guys posted as soon as I get some info.
    'I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine.'
  • Falling Down
    Falling Down Posts: 845
    Can't keep up with this anymore. Totally lost. Will just wait for my e-mail(s) tomorrow(?). 

    Montreal 98, 00, 03, 05, 11
    Toronto 03, 06, 11
    Ottawa 05, 11
    Quebec 05; Saratoga 00; Boston 04; Toledo 04
    Albany 06; Honolulu 06; Hartford 08
    Costa Rica 11
    London (Ont.), Hartford 13
    Quebec, Fenway 1 + 2 16; London 18
    EV Montreal (2), Berkeley II, Albany, Boston, London (UK)

  • JBob87
    JBob87 Posts: 485
    Random thought on the stubhub listings: it could be “dummy” sales between ticket broker accounts designed to inflate the average price suggested by the Stubhub algorithm. So that as more supply gets added it suggests a higher price to people to set the market. Who knows if they are actually legit sales that will close. I don’t see how they can be.

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