North American Tour Odds

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  • FiveBelowFiveBelow Posts: 1,309
    All these odds do is show me that there are not near as many paid members as people think. Since we were able to see how many tickets were held at each venue basic math can now be applied to find out roughly how many requests came in. Given the population in the northeast and only 2 shows you would think the odds would have been much worse for NY and Baltimore. Lets say they are holding 15k tickets for MSG (which is amazing), but if NY is at 57% odds that means roughly 26-27k ticket requests came in. Unless they have an odds system that is not factually based that is not that impressive given the insane population in that area and most members going for 2 tickets. I understand that putting in for only GA or only reserved skews the odds some, but not a crazy amount. What PJ did by securing more tickets was great because it gives members in those insane population density areas a much better shot and it doesn't matter where they play the public will grab up whats left in most cases. Win-win situation.
  • mfc2006mfc2006 HTOWN Posts: 37,484
    OKC is looking great!!
    I LOVE MUSIC.
    www.cluthelee.com
    www.cluthe.com
  • dmbolpdmbolp ATL Posts: 1,442
    For DMB seat assignments have come weeks later with TICKETSTODAY (more shows = more weeks later), so matches with the 1/27 seat assignment date.  I think this process is going to have other similarities to DMB's ticket process.
  • ComeToTXComeToTX Austin Posts: 7,918
    mfc2006 said:
    OKC is looking great!!
    I figured it would be the easiest ticket of the tour but glad that GA looks very likely too.  Can't wait!
    This show, another show, a show here and a show there.
  • dmbolp said:
    For DMB seat assignments have come weeks later with TICKETSTODAY (more shows = more weeks later), so matches with the 1/27 seat assignment date.  I think this process is going to have other similarities to DMB's ticket process.
    DMB is going to have some explaining to do if PJ can issue confirmation and the seat assignments.....  :)
  • Saltzy23Saltzy23 Posts: 1,350
    Is anyone else going to back to the Innings Festival this year to see DMB and Weezer?

    I fell in love with that whole thing last year and am going back for warm weather, spring training baseball, and music.

    It's an incredibly solid bang for the buck if you plan it right.

    I think between credit card points and AirBnB I am spending like $1k for an entire week out there.
    'I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine.'
  • OceansJennyOceansJenny Manhattan, NY Posts: 3,398
    What are the final odds?
    DC '03 - Reading '04 - Philly '05 - Camden 1 '06 - DC '06 - E. Rutherford '06 - The Vic '07 - Lollapalooza '07 - DC '08 - EV DC 1 & 2 '08 (Met Ed!!) - EV Baltimore 1 & 2 '09 - EV NYC 1 '11 (Met Ed!) - Hartford '13 - GCF '15 - MSG 2 '16 - TOTD MSG '16 - Boston 1 & 2 '18 - SHN '21 - EV NYC 1 & 2 '22 - MSG '22
  • 3days3days Posts: 1,187
    edited January 2020
    Toronto: 32/99
    Ottawa: 56/99
    Quebec City: 79/99
    Hamilton: 40/99
    Baltimore: 14/65
    NYC: 9/57
    Nashville: 21/99
    St Louis: 22/99
    OKC: 63/99
    Denver: 21/99
    Glendale: 36/99
    San Diego: 34/99
    LA: 28/99; 26/99
    Oak: 30/99; 37/99
    Post edited by 3days on
  • madhat181madhat181 Posts: 373

  • jdizzle8291jdizzle8291 Erie, PA Posts: 456
    Those are pretty good GA odds for QC. 795%
    2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II
    2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
    2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
  • Those are pretty good GA odds for QC. 795%
    Guaranteed tickets for the next 7 shows in QC.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 21,357
    3days said:
    Toronto: 32/99
    Ottawa: 56/99
    Quebec City: 795/99
    Hamilton: 40/99
    Baltimore: 14/65
    NYC: 9/57
    Nashville: 21/99
    St Louis: 22/99
    OKC: 63/99
    Denver: 21/99
    Glendale: 36/99
    San Diego: 34/99
    LA: 28/99; 26/99
    Oak: 30/99; 37/99
    so huge demand in NYC and Baltimore....everyone else is getting tix if they selected "best available"
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • LostpawnLostpawn Posts: 414
    Those are pretty good GA odds for QC. 795%
    Arena expansion. They installed the cranes today, due to 10c demand. 
  • tdawetdawe Posts: 2,091
    In 2016, was the MSG pit Ten Club Only?

    I'm wondering how to compare the 9% odds here to the 2016 odds which were in the 6-7% range for two nights. 
    Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 2024
  • kaw753kaw753 Posts: 883
    3days said:
    Toronto: 32/99
    Ottawa: 56/99
    Quebec City: 795/99
    Hamilton: 40/99
    Baltimore: 14/65
    NYC: 9/57
    Nashville: 21/99
    St Louis: 22/99
    OKC: 63/99
    Denver: 21/99
    Glendale: 36/99
    San Diego: 34/99
    LA: 28/99; 26/99
    Oak: 30/99; 37/99
    I am now just realizing I am a moron/moran for not putting Toronto reserved as #2 given I can just sell them if the seats suck. It is like a freeroll in poker. 
  • tdawe said:
    In 2016, was the MSG pit Ten Club Only?

    I'm wondering how to compare the 9% odds here to the 2016 odds which were in the 6-7% range for two nights. 
    GA is always TC only
  • 3days said:
    Toronto: 32/99
    Ottawa: 56/99
    Quebec City: 795/99
    Hamilton: 40/99
    Baltimore: 14/65
    NYC: 9/57
    Nashville: 21/99
    St Louis: 22/99
    OKC: 63/99
    Denver: 21/99
    Glendale: 36/99
    San Diego: 34/99
    LA: 28/99; 26/99
    Oak: 30/99; 37/99
    so huge demand in NYC and Baltimore....everyone else is getting tix if they selected "best available"
    St. Louis was my second option, I chose reserved seating and with those odds I'd be floored if I'm not attending that show with my ass in a seat.
    or you can come to terms and realize
    you're the only one who can forgive yourself oh yeah...
    makes much more sense to live in the present tense...

    1995:  7/11 (Chicago) 2009: 8/23, 8/24 (Chicago) 2010:  5/9 (Cleveland) 2013 7/19 (Chicago) 2016: 4/9 (Miami), 5/1 (NYC), 8/20 & 8/22 (Chicago)
    2018: 8/18 (Chicago) & 8/20 (Chicago) 2022:  9/11 (NYC), 9/18 (STL) 2023:  9/5 (Chicago), 9/7 (Chicago) 2024:  8/29 (Chicago), 8/31 (Chicago)

  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,955
    tdawe said:
    In 2016, was the MSG pit Ten Club Only?

    I'm wondering how to compare the 9% odds here to the 2016 odds which were in the 6-7% range for two nights. 
    GA is always TC only
    Could be some non-10C this year with the fan exchange. I assume most wont be selling GA tix, but it is possible. 
  • IlliniGuy76IlliniGuy76 Posts: 646
    edited January 2020
    bbiggs said:
    tdawe said:
    In 2016, was the MSG pit Ten Club Only?

    I'm wondering how to compare the 9% odds here to the 2016 odds which were in the 6-7% range for two nights. 
    GA is always TC only
    Could be some non-10C this year with the fan exchange. I assume most wont be selling GA tix, but it is possible. 
    Not sure that they've cleared this up - if the F2F exchange will be allowed only for 10C members (who are looking to unload 10c seats/GA that were purchased) or not, or have they?
    or you can come to terms and realize
    you're the only one who can forgive yourself oh yeah...
    makes much more sense to live in the present tense...

    1995:  7/11 (Chicago) 2009: 8/23, 8/24 (Chicago) 2010:  5/9 (Cleveland) 2013 7/19 (Chicago) 2016: 4/9 (Miami), 5/1 (NYC), 8/20 & 8/22 (Chicago)
    2018: 8/18 (Chicago) & 8/20 (Chicago) 2022:  9/11 (NYC), 9/18 (STL) 2023:  9/5 (Chicago), 9/7 (Chicago) 2024:  8/29 (Chicago), 8/31 (Chicago)

  • 3days3days Posts: 1,187
    Those are pretty good GA odds for QC. 795%
    Just realized, and changed it to 79%. That was the last posted number I saw.
  • bbiggs said:
    tdawe said:
    In 2016, was the MSG pit Ten Club Only?

    I'm wondering how to compare the 9% odds here to the 2016 odds which were in the 6-7% range for two nights. 
    GA is always TC only
    Could be some non-10C this year with the fan exchange. I assume most wont be selling GA tix, but it is possible. 
    Agreed, just the initial sale of GA is only to TC members
  • mace1229mace1229 Posts: 9,567
    JW269453 said:
    All these odds do is show me that there are not near as many paid members as people think. Since we were able to see how many tickets were held at each venue basic math can now be applied to find out roughly how many requests came in. Given the population in the northeast and only 2 shows you would think the odds would have been much worse for NY and Baltimore. Lets say they are holding 15k tickets for MSG (which is amazing), but if NY is at 57% odds that means roughly 26-27k ticket requests came in. Unless they have an odds system that is not factually based that is not that impressive given the insane population in that area and most members going for 2 tickets. I understand that putting in for only GA or only reserved skews the odds some, but not a crazy amount. What PJ did by securing more tickets was great because it gives members in those insane population density areas a much better shot and it doesn't matter where they play the public will grab up whats left in most cases. Win-win situation.
    Where did it show how many seats were being held?
    There may be fewer paid members than we think, but what is probably more likely is more people skip the shows or only see them in their home town. Probably fewer travel and see more than 1 show that we (or maybe just me) sometimes assume.
  • bbiggs said:
    tdawe said:
    In 2016, was the MSG pit Ten Club Only?

    I'm wondering how to compare the 9% odds here to the 2016 odds which were in the 6-7% range for two nights. 
    GA is always TC only
    Could be some non-10C this year with the fan exchange. I assume most wont be selling GA tix, but it is possible. 
    Not sure that they've cleared this up - if the F2F exchange will be allowed only for 10C members (who are looking to unload 10c seats/GA that were purchased) or not, or have they?
    I believe it was mentioned by the Ticketmaster rep on the faithful forum that the F2F would be open to anyone. So there could be non 10C that get into GA through the exchange. 
    Columbus 6/24/03, Pittsburgh 9/28/05, Cleveland 5/20/06, Pittsburgh 6/23/06, Chicago 8/5/07, New York 6/24/08, New York 6/25/08, Hartford 6/27/08, Mansfield 6/28/08, Mansfield 6/30/08, EV D.C. 8/16/08, EV Chicago 8/22/08, EV Baltimore 6/14/09, Chicago 8/23/09, Philadelphia 10/27/09, Philadelphia 10/28/09, Philadelphia 10/30/09, Philadelphia 10/31/09, Columbus 5/6/10, Indianapolis 5/7/10, Cleveland 5/9/10, Buffalo 5/10/10, EV Detroit 6/26/11, Toronto 9/12/11, Hamilton 9/15/11, Pittsburgh 10/11/13, Buffalo 10/12/13, San Diego 11/21/13, Los Angeles 11/23/13, Los Angeles 11/24/13, Cincinnati 10/1/14, Detroit 10/16/14, New York 9/26/15, Greenville 4/16/16, Hampton 4/18/16, Columbia 4/21/16, Philadelphia 4/29/16, Chicago 8/20/16, Chicago 8/22/16, Denver 9/22/22, Los Angeles 5/21/24
  • tdawetdawe Posts: 2,091
    tdawe said:
    In 2016, was the MSG pit Ten Club Only?

    I'm wondering how to compare the 9% odds here to the 2016 odds which were in the 6-7% range for two nights. 
    GA is always TC only
    Then I wonder why the odds are 50% better this time? Presumably they didn't increase the square footage of the GA area (didn't look that way on the venue map anyway). Unlike the reserved tickets where it seems like they were able to negotiate for more seats for us, there should be pretty much the same number of GA tickets available this time as last time.
    Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 2024
  • bbiggs said:
    tdawe said:
    In 2016, was the MSG pit Ten Club Only?

    I'm wondering how to compare the 9% odds here to the 2016 odds which were in the 6-7% range for two nights. 
    GA is always TC only
    Could be some non-10C this year with the fan exchange. I assume most wont be selling GA tix, but it is possible. 
    Not sure that they've cleared this up - if the F2F exchange will be allowed only for 10C members (who are looking to unload 10c seats/GA that were purchased) or not, or have they?
    I believe it was mentioned by the Ticketmaster rep on the faithful forum that the F2F would be open to anyone. So there could be non 10C that get into GA through the exchange. 
    Lots of people pressing "refresh" on their browsers as it comes closer to concert time to buy those!
    or you can come to terms and realize
    you're the only one who can forgive yourself oh yeah...
    makes much more sense to live in the present tense...

    1995:  7/11 (Chicago) 2009: 8/23, 8/24 (Chicago) 2010:  5/9 (Cleveland) 2013 7/19 (Chicago) 2016: 4/9 (Miami), 5/1 (NYC), 8/20 & 8/22 (Chicago)
    2018: 8/18 (Chicago) & 8/20 (Chicago) 2022:  9/11 (NYC), 9/18 (STL) 2023:  9/5 (Chicago), 9/7 (Chicago) 2024:  8/29 (Chicago), 8/31 (Chicago)

  • kaw753kaw753 Posts: 883
    bbiggs said:
    tdawe said:
    In 2016, was the MSG pit Ten Club Only?

    I'm wondering how to compare the 9% odds here to the 2016 odds which were in the 6-7% range for two nights. 
    GA is always TC only
    Could be some non-10C this year with the fan exchange. I assume most wont be selling GA tix, but it is possible. 
    Not sure that they've cleared this up - if the F2F exchange will be allowed only for 10C members (who are looking to unload 10c seats/GA that were purchased) or not, or have they?
    I believe it was mentioned by the Ticketmaster rep on the faithful forum that the F2F would be open to anyone. So there could be non 10C that get into GA through the exchange. 
    It seems like it would not be rocket science to add a fan club waiting list to fill orders as people cancel their tickets. 
  • tdawetdawe Posts: 2,091
    bbiggs said:
    tdawe said:
    In 2016, was the MSG pit Ten Club Only?

    I'm wondering how to compare the 9% odds here to the 2016 odds which were in the 6-7% range for two nights. 
    GA is always TC only
    Could be some non-10C this year with the fan exchange. I assume most wont be selling GA tix, but it is possible. 
    Not sure that they've cleared this up - if the F2F exchange will be allowed only for 10C members (who are looking to unload 10c seats/GA that were purchased) or not, or have they?
    I believe it was mentioned by the Ticketmaster rep on the faithful forum that the F2F would be open to anyone. So there could be non 10C that get into GA through the exchange. 
    The tickets sold in the Verified Fan presale (other than NY and CO) will also be in the exchange, so clearly it won't be limited to just the fan club members. Unless they're setting up two separate exchanges, which I doubt.
    Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 2024
  • TA243471TA243471 The Great Northwest Posts: 1,245
    Maybe the single ticket option really freed more tickets than seemed possible?
    • 2006: Gorge 1
    • 2009: Seattle 1
    • 2013: Seattle
    • 2016: Wrigley 1 & 2
    • 2018: Seattle 1&2, Montana
    • 2020: San Diego, LA 1&2, Oakland 1&2
    • 2022: San Diego, LA 1&2, Fresno, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Denver
    • 2024: Vancouver 1, Portland, Las Vegas 1&2, Seattle 1&2, Missoula, Dana Point 1 & 2
  • FiveBelowFiveBelow Posts: 1,309
    mace1229 said:
    JW269453 said:
    All these odds do is show me that there are not near as many paid members as people think. Since we were able to see how many tickets were held at each venue basic math can now be applied to find out roughly how many requests came in. Given the population in the northeast and only 2 shows you would think the odds would have been much worse for NY and Baltimore. Lets say they are holding 15k tickets for MSG (which is amazing), but if NY is at 57% odds that means roughly 26-27k ticket requests came in. Unless they have an odds system that is not factually based that is not that impressive given the insane population in that area and most members going for 2 tickets. I understand that putting in for only GA or only reserved skews the odds some, but not a crazy amount. What PJ did by securing more tickets was great because it gives members in those insane population density areas a much better shot and it doesn't matter where they play the public will grab up whats left in most cases. Win-win situation.
    Where did it show how many seats were being held?
    There may be fewer paid members than we think, but what is probably more likely is more people skip the shows or only see them in their home town. Probably fewer travel and see more than 1 show that we (or maybe just me) sometimes assume.
    Just looking at the blue areas you can get a gauge of roughly how many tickets were held based on venue capacity. Travel may be something that keeps more away, and I too always assumed that paid members would likely be in for multiple shows especially when you can hit so many places withing a reasonable distance in the northeast.

  • mace1229 said:
    JW269453 said:
    All these odds do is show me that there are not near as many paid members as people think. Since we were able to see how many tickets were held at each venue basic math can now be applied to find out roughly how many requests came in. Given the population in the northeast and only 2 shows you would think the odds would have been much worse for NY and Baltimore. Lets say they are holding 15k tickets for MSG (which is amazing), but if NY is at 57% odds that means roughly 26-27k ticket requests came in. Unless they have an odds system that is not factually based that is not that impressive given the insane population in that area and most members going for 2 tickets. I understand that putting in for only GA or only reserved skews the odds some, but not a crazy amount. What PJ did by securing more tickets was great because it gives members in those insane population density areas a much better shot and it doesn't matter where they play the public will grab up whats left in most cases. Win-win situation.
    Where did it show how many seats were being held?
    There may be fewer paid members than we think, but what is probably more likely is more people skip the shows or only see them in their home town. Probably fewer travel and see more than 1 show that we (or maybe just me) sometimes assume.
    I don’t think they ever said that entire sections were fully allocated for 10c. So MSG for example basically every section showed ticket availability, but I didn’t assume that meant every seat in those sections. Would be nice if that were the case though! 
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