Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting? I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it? Everything will go bankrupt. The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months? Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.
I’m in agreement. I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most. That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then. We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown. So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system. I say all of this hopefully.
I think this is the problem. If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune. If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again. I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.
People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it.
I get that part. I'm saying the spread needs to be really slow for health care to keep up. I think the rate at which they can keep up would take years for enough of the population to be immune to keep it from spreading. I think you need something like 70 to 80 percent of the public to be immune to something to keep it from spreading quickly. Thus the lockdown can't end in a few months, because if it did, it would spread rampantly.
This creates an economic problem. Right now the governments are doing bailouts of 10 to 15% of their annual GDP. 2 trillion in the US, 85b in Canada, etc... How long's that going to last for? A few months at best? Even the bailouts don't cover everything. The governments are funding these massive bailouts at the same time their tax base is going to shrivel up. Government might not be able to fund much more than this. Small businesses are going struggle hard, big business might follow. Lots of people will stop being able to pay their rent, mortgages etc....
Our civilization isn't mean for everyone to stay at home for a year or two. That's why I give it a few months, and people will want to risk going back to normal. If they don't, then there's not going to be much left to go to. The "slow it down" approach saves lives, but it creates many other problems.
It's why I feel like this short window is really the only chance to contain it. More than slow it down.. Figure it out and contain it. If it doesn't get contained in a couple months there's going to be civil unrest. People would rather take their chances with the virus then lose their homes and go broke.
You can't contain it without a vaccine. The quarantine will hopefully slow it down enough to make healthcare manageable and buy us time while a vaccine is developed.
You can try. South Korea is containing it by doing blanket testing and isolating clusters where it's spread out.
I think my argument still stands. It seems like between developing, testing, and production the earliest we would see a Vaccine is 2021. I think with government borrowing heavily to pay everyone to stay at home they can buy a few months.
That means something's going to give. People won't be able to afford to stay at home that long.
Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting? I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it? Everything will go bankrupt. The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months? Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.
I’m in agreement. I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most. That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then. We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown. So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system. I say all of this hopefully.
I think this is the problem. If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune. If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again. I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.
People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it.
I get that part. I'm saying the spread needs to be really slow for health care to keep up. I think the rate at which they can keep up would take years for enough of the population to be immune to keep it from spreading. I think you need something like 70 to 80 percent of the public to be immune to something to keep it from spreading quickly. Thus the lockdown can't end in a few months, because if it did, it would spread rampantly.
This creates an economic problem. Right now the governments are doing bailouts of 10 to 15% of their annual GDP. 2 trillion in the US, 85b in Canada, etc... How long's that going to last for? A few months at best? Even the bailouts don't cover everything. The governments are funding these massive bailouts at the same time their tax base is going to shrivel up. Government might not be able to fund much more than this. Small businesses are going struggle hard, big business might follow. Lots of people will stop being able to pay their rent, mortgages etc....
Our civilization isn't mean for everyone to stay at home for a year or two. That's why I give it a few months, and people will want to risk going back to normal. If they don't, then there's not going to be much left to go to. The "slow it down" approach saves lives, but it creates many other problems.
It's why I feel like this short window is really the only chance to contain it. More than slow it down.. Figure it out and contain it. If it doesn't get contained in a couple months there's going to be civil unrest. People would rather take their chances with the virus then lose their homes and go broke.
You can't contain it without a vaccine. The quarantine will hopefully slow it down enough to make healthcare manageable and buy us time while a vaccine is developed.
At this point everyone knows this. And I mean everyone. It is a given . The argument is know if/how big crowds will happen without a vaccine as the vaccine will not be here by fall. One possibility is lots of regular testing and seroloical testing as well. Patient goes to doctor not feeling well in a few months. Gets test. If positive, get better treatments and goes home to rest for 2 weeks. If negative gets serological test. If positive, patient is in the clear and can go do anything. If negative, patient can take their chances and do what they want. Doctors wont be as slammed. By then we may also know a good estimate of the percentage effected and their may be a herd immunity to stop bigger outbreaks.
If we can get through this thing by summer with the economy intact, I feel the days of 5,000-20,000 people gathering for ANY single event are over for a while. I think people will need a few years before they feel comfortable again being packed in tightly with large crowds. Maybe this fall's college football/NFL season (if it goes off) could be a good gauge of how folks and the arenas respond.
. My guess is that the NFL pres-season played in empty stadiums is test #1 in opening things back up.
That won't be much of a barometer, pre-season games usually have lots of empty seats, can't give those tickets away.
My hometown Ottawa Senators see no issue starting the season with empty arenas.
Heyo... I am here all week!
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on2legs
Standing in the Jersey rain… Posts: 14,436
Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting? I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it? Everything will go bankrupt. The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months? Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.
I’m in agreement. I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most. That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then. We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown. So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system. I say all of this hopefully.
I think this is the problem. If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune. If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again. I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.
People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it.
I get that part. I'm saying the spread needs to be really slow for health care to keep up. I think the rate at which they can keep up would take years for enough of the population to be immune to keep it from spreading. I think you need something like 70 to 80 percent of the public to be immune to something to keep it from spreading quickly. Thus the lockdown can't end in a few months, because if it did, it would spread rampantly.
This creates an economic problem. Right now the governments are doing bailouts of 10 to 15% of their annual GDP. 2 trillion in the US, 85b in Canada, etc... How long's that going to last for? A few months at best? Even the bailouts don't cover everything. The governments are funding these massive bailouts at the same time their tax base is going to shrivel up. Government might not be able to fund much more than this. Small businesses are going struggle hard, big business might follow. Lots of people will stop being able to pay their rent, mortgages etc....
Our civilization isn't mean for everyone to stay at home for a year or two. That's why I give it a few months, and people will want to risk going back to normal. If they don't, then there's not going to be much left to go to. The "slow it down" approach saves lives, but it creates many other problems.
It's why I feel like this short window is really the only chance to contain it. More than slow it down.. Figure it out and contain it. If it doesn't get contained in a couple months there's going to be civil unrest. People would rather take their chances with the virus then lose their homes and go broke.
You can't contain it without a vaccine. The quarantine will hopefully slow it down enough to make healthcare manageable and buy us time while a vaccine is developed.
You can try. South Korea is containing it by doing blanket testing and isolating clusters where it's spread out.
I think my argument still stands. It seems like between developing, testing, and production the earliest we would see a Vaccine is 2021. I think with government borrowing heavily to pay everyone to stay at home they can buy a few months.
That means something's going to give. People won't be able to afford to stay at home that long.
I think you’re missing what I’m saying. People will definitely be going back to work. It’s a given. The quarantine will last 2-3 months at most and hopefully we will be on the backside of the curve by then. The hope is that the healthcare system will be able to keep up with the situation as a result of the quarantine. But people will go back to work and people will still get sick until there is a vaccine.
1996: Randall's Island 2 1998: East Rutherford | MSG 1 & 2 2000: Cincinnati | Columbus | Jones Beach 1, 2, & 3 | Boston 1 | Camden 1 & 2 2003: Philadelphia | Uniondale | MSG 1 & 2 | Holmdel 2005: Atlantic City 1 2006: Camden 1 | East Rutherford 1 & 2 2008: Camden 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Newark (EV) 2009: Philadelphia 1, 2 & 4 2010: Newark | MSG 1 & 2 2011: Toronto 1 2013: Wrigley Field | Brooklyn 2 | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore 2015: Central Park 2016: Philadelphia 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Fenway Park 2 | MSG (TOTD) 2017: Brooklyn (RnR HOF) 2020: MSG | Asbury Park2021: Asbury Park 2022: MSG | Camden | Nashville 2024: MSG 1 & 2 (#50) | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore
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on2legs
Standing in the Jersey rain… Posts: 14,436
Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting? I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it? Everything will go bankrupt. The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months? Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.
I’m in agreement. I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most. That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then. We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown. So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system. I say all of this hopefully.
I think this is the problem. If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune. If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again. I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.
People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it.
I get that part. I'm saying the spread needs to be really slow for health care to keep up. I think the rate at which they can keep up would take years for enough of the population to be immune to keep it from spreading. I think you need something like 70 to 80 percent of the public to be immune to something to keep it from spreading quickly. Thus the lockdown can't end in a few months, because if it did, it would spread rampantly.
This creates an economic problem. Right now the governments are doing bailouts of 10 to 15% of their annual GDP. 2 trillion in the US, 85b in Canada, etc... How long's that going to last for? A few months at best? Even the bailouts don't cover everything. The governments are funding these massive bailouts at the same time their tax base is going to shrivel up. Government might not be able to fund much more than this. Small businesses are going struggle hard, big business might follow. Lots of people will stop being able to pay their rent, mortgages etc....
Our civilization isn't mean for everyone to stay at home for a year or two. That's why I give it a few months, and people will want to risk going back to normal. If they don't, then there's not going to be much left to go to. The "slow it down" approach saves lives, but it creates many other problems.
It's why I feel like this short window is really the only chance to contain it. More than slow it down.. Figure it out and contain it. If it doesn't get contained in a couple months there's going to be civil unrest. People would rather take their chances with the virus then lose their homes and go broke.
You can't contain it without a vaccine. The quarantine will hopefully slow it down enough to make healthcare manageable and buy us time while a vaccine is developed.
At this point everyone knows this. And I mean everyone. It is a given . The argument is know if/how big crowds will happen without a vaccine as the vaccine will not be here by fall. One possibility is lots of regular testing and seroloical testing as well. Patient goes to doctor not feeling well in a few months. Gets test. If positive, get better treatments and goes home to rest for 2 weeks. If negative gets serological test. If positive, patient is in the clear and can go do anything. If negative, patient can take their chances and do what they want. Doctors wont be as slammed. By then we may also know a good estimate of the percentage effected and their may be a herd immunity to stop bigger outbreaks.
I said all that in my earlier posts.
1996: Randall's Island 2 1998: East Rutherford | MSG 1 & 2 2000: Cincinnati | Columbus | Jones Beach 1, 2, & 3 | Boston 1 | Camden 1 & 2 2003: Philadelphia | Uniondale | MSG 1 & 2 | Holmdel 2005: Atlantic City 1 2006: Camden 1 | East Rutherford 1 & 2 2008: Camden 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Newark (EV) 2009: Philadelphia 1, 2 & 4 2010: Newark | MSG 1 & 2 2011: Toronto 1 2013: Wrigley Field | Brooklyn 2 | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore 2015: Central Park 2016: Philadelphia 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Fenway Park 2 | MSG (TOTD) 2017: Brooklyn (RnR HOF) 2020: MSG | Asbury Park2021: Asbury Park 2022: MSG | Camden | Nashville 2024: MSG 1 & 2 (#50) | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore
Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting? I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it? Everything will go bankrupt. The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months? Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.
I’m in agreement. I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most. That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then. We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown. So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system. I say all of this hopefully.
I think this is the problem. If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune. If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again. I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.
People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it.
I get that part. I'm saying the spread needs to be really slow for health care to keep up. I think the rate at which they can keep up would take years for enough of the population to be immune to keep it from spreading. I think you need something like 70 to 80 percent of the public to be immune to something to keep it from spreading quickly. Thus the lockdown can't end in a few months, because if it did, it would spread rampantly.
This creates an economic problem. Right now the governments are doing bailouts of 10 to 15% of their annual GDP. 2 trillion in the US, 85b in Canada, etc... How long's that going to last for? A few months at best? Even the bailouts don't cover everything. The governments are funding these massive bailouts at the same time their tax base is going to shrivel up. Government might not be able to fund much more than this. Small businesses are going struggle hard, big business might follow. Lots of people will stop being able to pay their rent, mortgages etc....
Our civilization isn't mean for everyone to stay at home for a year or two. That's why I give it a few months, and people will want to risk going back to normal. If they don't, then there's not going to be much left to go to. The "slow it down" approach saves lives, but it creates many other problems.
It's why I feel like this short window is really the only chance to contain it. More than slow it down.. Figure it out and contain it. If it doesn't get contained in a couple months there's going to be civil unrest. People would rather take their chances with the virus then lose their homes and go broke.
You can't contain it without a vaccine. The quarantine will hopefully slow it down enough to make healthcare manageable and buy us time while a vaccine is developed.
You can try. South Korea is containing it by doing blanket testing and isolating clusters where it's spread out.
I think my argument still stands. It seems like between developing, testing, and production the earliest we would see a Vaccine is 2021. I think with government borrowing heavily to pay everyone to stay at home they can buy a few months.
That means something's going to give. People won't be able to afford to stay at home that long.
I think you’re missing what I’m saying. People will definitely be going back to work. It’s a given. The quarantine will last 2-3 months at most and hopefully we will be on the backside of the curve by then. The hope is that the healthcare system will be able to keep up with the situation as a result of the quarantine. But people will go back to work and people will still get sick until there is a vaccine.
I also think you're missing what I'm saying. The slowing it down approach is only to give our medical people fighting chance at keeping up with all the sick people. The negative with the slow it down approach is the overwhelming majority of the population doesn't catch it and doesn't get immune to it. The odds of there being zero people with it in 2 to 3 months is pretty slim. People become the equivalent of a forest after a 2 year drought. It only takes a spark. If they let us go back to work and resume our lives in 2 - 3 months time, it would start spreading again, putting a big toll on the health care systems, and pretty much accomplishing nothing. All we did was delay disaster on the health care system.
I'm basically arguing that without enough people being immune it to we can't go back to work. Slowing it down prevents enough people from getting immune. Therefore if they want to control the spread so health care can keep up, they can't let us go back to work in 2-3 months. It'd start all over again. This becomes a catch 22, because if we all stay at home we all go broke. In the end all me have done is delayed the inevitable :(
If we can get through this thing by summer with the economy intact, I feel the days of 5,000-20,000 people gathering for ANY single event are over for a while. I think people will need a few years before they feel comfortable again being packed in tightly with large crowds. Maybe this fall's college football/NFL season (if it goes off) could be a good gauge of how folks and the arenas respond.
. My guess is that the NFL pres-season played in empty stadiums is test #1 in opening things back up.
That won't be much of a barometer, pre-season games usually have lots of empty seats, can't give those tickets away.
My hometown Ottawa Senators see no issue starting the season with empty arenas.
Heyo... I am here all week!
Hahaha great joke! But, some high draft picks coming your guys way!
The foo fighters rescheduled all their spring dates for the fall. A lot of bands have already done their rescheduling for fall or 2021. Have to think PJ announce at least the spring rescheduled dates soon. (Whether they happen or not is the q that remains)
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on2legs
Standing in the Jersey rain… Posts: 14,436
Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting? I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it? Everything will go bankrupt. The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months? Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.
I’m in agreement. I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most. That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then. We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown. So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system. I say all of this hopefully.
I think this is the problem. If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune. If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again. I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.
People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it.
I get that part. I'm saying the spread needs to be really slow for health care to keep up. I think the rate at which they can keep up would take years for enough of the population to be immune to keep it from spreading. I think you need something like 70 to 80 percent of the public to be immune to something to keep it from spreading quickly. Thus the lockdown can't end in a few months, because if it did, it would spread rampantly.
This creates an economic problem. Right now the governments are doing bailouts of 10 to 15% of their annual GDP. 2 trillion in the US, 85b in Canada, etc... How long's that going to last for? A few months at best? Even the bailouts don't cover everything. The governments are funding these massive bailouts at the same time their tax base is going to shrivel up. Government might not be able to fund much more than this. Small businesses are going struggle hard, big business might follow. Lots of people will stop being able to pay their rent, mortgages etc....
Our civilization isn't mean for everyone to stay at home for a year or two. That's why I give it a few months, and people will want to risk going back to normal. If they don't, then there's not going to be much left to go to. The "slow it down" approach saves lives, but it creates many other problems.
It's why I feel like this short window is really the only chance to contain it. More than slow it down.. Figure it out and contain it. If it doesn't get contained in a couple months there's going to be civil unrest. People would rather take their chances with the virus then lose their homes and go broke.
You can't contain it without a vaccine. The quarantine will hopefully slow it down enough to make healthcare manageable and buy us time while a vaccine is developed.
You can try. South Korea is containing it by doing blanket testing and isolating clusters where it's spread out.
I think my argument still stands. It seems like between developing, testing, and production the earliest we would see a Vaccine is 2021. I think with government borrowing heavily to pay everyone to stay at home they can buy a few months.
That means something's going to give. People won't be able to afford to stay at home that long.
I think you’re missing what I’m saying. People will definitely be going back to work. It’s a given. The quarantine will last 2-3 months at most and hopefully we will be on the backside of the curve by then. The hope is that the healthcare system will be able to keep up with the situation as a result of the quarantine. But people will go back to work and people will still get sick until there is a vaccine.
I also think you're missing what I'm saying. The slowing it down approach is only to give our medical people fighting chance at keeping up with all the sick people. The negative with the slow it down approach is the overwhelming majority of the population doesn't catch it and doesn't get immune to it. The odds of there being zero people with it in 2 to 3 months is pretty slim. People become the equivalent of a forest after a 2 year drought. It only takes a spark. If they let us go back to work and resume our lives in 2 - 3 months time, it would start spreading again, putting a big toll on the health care systems, and pretty much accomplishing nothing. All we did was delay disaster on the health care system.
I'm basically arguing that without enough people being immune it to we can't go back to work. Slowing it down prevents enough people from getting immune. Therefore if they want to control the spread so health care can keep up, they can't let us go back to work in 2-3 months. It'd start all over again. This becomes a catch 22, because if we all stay at home we all go broke. In the end all me have done is delayed the inevitable :(
I’m cool with disagreeing. Stay well.
1996: Randall's Island 2 1998: East Rutherford | MSG 1 & 2 2000: Cincinnati | Columbus | Jones Beach 1, 2, & 3 | Boston 1 | Camden 1 & 2 2003: Philadelphia | Uniondale | MSG 1 & 2 | Holmdel 2005: Atlantic City 1 2006: Camden 1 | East Rutherford 1 & 2 2008: Camden 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Newark (EV) 2009: Philadelphia 1, 2 & 4 2010: Newark | MSG 1 & 2 2011: Toronto 1 2013: Wrigley Field | Brooklyn 2 | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore 2015: Central Park 2016: Philadelphia 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Fenway Park 2 | MSG (TOTD) 2017: Brooklyn (RnR HOF) 2020: MSG | Asbury Park2021: Asbury Park 2022: MSG | Camden | Nashville 2024: MSG 1 & 2 (#50) | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore
Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting? I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it? Everything will go bankrupt. The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months? Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.
I’m in agreement. I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most. That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then. We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown. So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system. I say all of this hopefully.
I think this is the problem. If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune. If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again. I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.
People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it.
I get that part. I'm saying the spread needs to be really slow for health care to keep up. I think the rate at which they can keep up would take years for enough of the population to be immune to keep it from spreading. I think you need something like 70 to 80 percent of the public to be immune to something to keep it from spreading quickly. Thus the lockdown can't end in a few months, because if it did, it would spread rampantly.
This creates an economic problem. Right now the governments are doing bailouts of 10 to 15% of their annual GDP. 2 trillion in the US, 85b in Canada, etc... How long's that going to last for? A few months at best? Even the bailouts don't cover everything. The governments are funding these massive bailouts at the same time their tax base is going to shrivel up. Government might not be able to fund much more than this. Small businesses are going struggle hard, big business might follow. Lots of people will stop being able to pay their rent, mortgages etc....
Our civilization isn't mean for everyone to stay at home for a year or two. That's why I give it a few months, and people will want to risk going back to normal. If they don't, then there's not going to be much left to go to. The "slow it down" approach saves lives, but it creates many other problems.
It's why I feel like this short window is really the only chance to contain it. More than slow it down.. Figure it out and contain it. If it doesn't get contained in a couple months there's going to be civil unrest. People would rather take their chances with the virus then lose their homes and go broke.
You can't contain it without a vaccine. The quarantine will hopefully slow it down enough to make healthcare manageable and buy us time while a vaccine is developed.
You can try. South Korea is containing it by doing blanket testing and isolating clusters where it's spread out.
I think my argument still stands. It seems like between developing, testing, and production the earliest we would see a Vaccine is 2021. I think with government borrowing heavily to pay everyone to stay at home they can buy a few months.
That means something's going to give. People won't be able to afford to stay at home that long.
I think you’re missing what I’m saying. People will definitely be going back to work. It’s a given. The quarantine will last 2-3 months at most and hopefully we will be on the backside of the curve by then. The hope is that the healthcare system will be able to keep up with the situation as a result of the quarantine. But people will go back to work and people will still get sick until there is a vaccine.
I also think you're missing what I'm saying. The slowing it down approach is only to give our medical people fighting chance at keeping up with all the sick people. The negative with the slow it down approach is the overwhelming majority of the population doesn't catch it and doesn't get immune to it. The odds of there being zero people with it in 2 to 3 months is pretty slim. People become the equivalent of a forest after a 2 year drought. It only takes a spark. If they let us go back to work and resume our lives in 2 - 3 months time, it would start spreading again, putting a big toll on the health care systems, and pretty much accomplishing nothing. All we did was delay disaster on the health care system.
I'm basically arguing that without enough people being immune it to we can't go back to work. Slowing it down prevents enough people from getting immune. Therefore if they want to control the spread so health care can keep up, they can't let us go back to work in 2-3 months. It'd start all over again. This becomes a catch 22, because if we all stay at home we all go broke. In the end all me have done is delayed the inevitable :(
I’m cool with disagreeing. Stay well.
I guess. If I can read our arguments right. We both think we'll have to go back to work in a few months. We both think the virus would still be out there. We both think people would get sick. We arguing on what level of spread it would have at that time?
My point is with the vaccine not likely coming until 2021 is that if we open things back up again this summer it is basically a guarantee that a few short months later we will be right back in the situation we are currently in.
Summerfest 7/8/95 Missoula 6/20/98 Alpine Valley 6/26/98 & 6/27/98 Alpine Valley 10/8/00
Champaign 4/23/03 Alpine Valley 6/21/03 Missoula 8/29/05
Chicago 5/16 & 17/06 Grand Rapids 5/19/06 Summerfest 6/29/06 & 6/30/06
Tampa 6/12/08
Chicago 8/23/09
Indy 5/7/10 Alpine Valley x2 2011 Wrigley 2013 Milwaukee 14 Telluride 16
My point is with the vaccine not likely coming until 2021 is that if we open things back up again this summer it is basically a guarantee that a few short months later we will be right back in the situation we are currently in.
That's how I feel. It'll be a tough decision in the summer if the situation hasn't changed. Keep everything closed and everyone goes broke or lift restrictions and hope for the best. Neither situation is conductive to mass gatherings :(
My point is with the vaccine not likely coming until 2021 is that if we open things back up again this summer it is basically a guarantee that a few short months later we will be right back in the situation we are currently in.
And if we do not open back up we be under an economical collapse that none of our generation has ever seen. I think we need to balance both with opening things back up when we are ready and closing in areas that need it when clusters start forming again. Where this puts sports, concerts and school for 2020 and early 2021 I have no clue.
It will remain a catch-22 until there is a treatment. Lots of clinical trials are ongoing. It just takes one to be successful. Hopefully that will happen soon to bridge the gap to the vaccine.
PJ: 2013: London (ON); Buffalo; 2014: Cincinnati; 2016: Sunrise, Miami, Toronto 1-2, Wrigley 2; 2018: London (UK) 1, Milan, Padova, Sea 2, Wrigley 1-2, Fenway 1-2; 2021: SHN, Ohana, Ohana Encore 1-2; 2022: LA 1-2, Phx, Oak 1-2, Fresno, Copenhagen, Hyde Park 1-2; Quebec, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto; MSG, Camden, Nashville, Louisville, St. Louis, OKC; 2023: St. Paul 1-2, Chicago 1-2; Fort Worth 2; Austin 1-2
EV Solo: 2017 Louisville and Franklin, 2018 Ohana, 2019 Innings Fest, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Dublin and Ohana; 2021 Ohana Friday (from beach) and Saturday; 2022 Earthlings Newark; 2023 Innings Fest and Benoraya 1-2.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
I know we are not China, but they are slowly opening businesses after a 2 month lock down. People are still apprehensive about going out in public and they are doing TSA style health screenings before they enter a event, bar, etc. I can see venues doing this when the finally end the ban of events. screening people before entering.. if you show signs, you can't enter the venue. Anyone else think that they will do something like this?
It will remain a catch-22 until there is a treatment. Lots of clinical trials are ongoing. It just takes one to be successful. Hopefully that will happen soon to bridge the gap to the vaccine.
I am hopeful that maybe we have some kind good luck event. Early development of a Vaccine. Lockdowns work better than expected.
I read one article yesterday saying that Big Tobacco was working on a vaccine. If big Tobacco saves the planet I'm going to laugh my ass off.. haha
My point is with the vaccine not likely coming until 2021 is that if we open things back up again this summer it is basically a guarantee that a few short months later we will be right back in the situation we are currently in.
And if we do not open back up we be under an economical collapse that none of our generation has ever seen. I think we need to balance both with opening things back up when we are ready and closing in areas that need it when clusters start forming again. Where this puts sports, concerts and school for 2020 and early 2021 I have no clue.
Completely agree! Unfortunately this is the reality we are facing!
Summerfest 7/8/95 Missoula 6/20/98 Alpine Valley 6/26/98 & 6/27/98 Alpine Valley 10/8/00
Champaign 4/23/03 Alpine Valley 6/21/03 Missoula 8/29/05
Chicago 5/16 & 17/06 Grand Rapids 5/19/06 Summerfest 6/29/06 & 6/30/06
Tampa 6/12/08
Chicago 8/23/09
Indy 5/7/10 Alpine Valley x2 2011 Wrigley 2013 Milwaukee 14 Telluride 16
I know we are not China, but they are slowly opening businesses after a 2 month lock down. People are still apprehensive about going out in public and they are doing TSA style health screenings before they enter a event, bar, etc. I can see venues doing this when the finally end the ban of events. screening people before entering.. if you show signs, you can't enter the venue. Anyone else think that they will do something like this?
They going to stick a thermometer in my rump? Won’t do anything to stop a reemergence, as this virus spread due to its significant asymptomatic and highly contagious nature.
So we pile up by the hundreds outside venues coughing on each other waiting to enter to solve nothing. With the exception of my next Pearl Jam show, because their tickets used to be so difficult to get, no thank you. And very likely no thank you to Pearl Jam as well, so get the f5 machine rolling again. No games no concerts no restaurants, good luck to you economy.
My point is with the vaccine not likely coming until 2021 is that if we open things back up again this summer it is basically a guarantee that a few short months later we will be right back in the situation we are currently in.
And if we do not open back up we be under an economical collapse that none of our generation has ever seen. I think we need to balance both with opening things back up when we are ready and closing in areas that need it when clusters start forming again. Where this puts sports, concerts and school for 2020 and early 2021 I have no clue.
Completely agree! Unfortunately this is the reality we are facing!
The economy has already changed on a fundamental level
If we rush back into public too soon, we could increase the damage to the economy, by scaring people more than they are scared now, by forcing them back into crowded public spaces. If that leads to a new outbreak, goodbye economy and goodbye any trust in our leadership. That might be the action that shakes some of the 40% off of the trump base. At least we have security now by staying isolated if we choose.
Many industries may not be back until we have a treatment. Professional sports, restaurants, airlines, theater, nightclubs, amusement parks, etc.
My point is with the vaccine not likely coming until 2021 is that if we open things back up again this summer it is basically a guarantee that a few short months later we will be right back in the situation we are currently in.
And if we do not open back up we be under an economical collapse that none of our generation has ever seen. I think we need to balance both with opening things back up when we are ready and closing in areas that need it when clusters start forming again. Where this puts sports, concerts and school for 2020 and early 2021 I have no clue.
Completely agree! Unfortunately this is the reality we are facing!
The economy has already changed on a fundamental level
If we rush back into public too soon, we could increase the damage to the economy, by scaring people more than they are scared now, by forcing them back into crowded public spaces. If that leads to a new outbreak, goodbye economy and goodbye any trust in our leadership. That might be the action that shakes some of the 40% off of the trump base. At least we have security now by staying isolated if we choose.
Many industries may not be back until we have a treatment. Professional sports, restaurants, airlines, theater, nightclubs, amusement parks, etc.
Many of those industries won't be able to hold out that long :(
We’ll come back slowly but stronger than ever, like we always do. There’s a fundamental sticktoitiveness and propensity for perseverance in all of us that will makes us band together. More specifically to the fans of this band and members of this forum, if we all make it out to the other side of this thing we will be stronger than ever.
Once a titer is developed, people who have the antibodies (people who have recovered, whether they showed symptoms or not) can definitely get back to work
2010: Cleveland 2012: Atlanta 2013: London ONT / Wrigley Field / Pittsburgh / Buffalo / San Diego / Los Angeles I / Los Angeles II 2014: Cincinnati / St. Louis / Tulsa / Lincoln / Detroit / Denver 2015: New York City 2016: Ft. Lauderdale / Miami / Jacksonville / Greenville / Hampton / Columbia / Lexington / Philly II / New York City II / Toronto II / Bonnaroo / Telluride / Fenway I / Wrigley I / Wrigley - II / TOTD - Philadelphia, San Francisco 2017: Ohana Fest (EV) 2018: Amsterdam I / Amsterdam II / Seattle I / Seattle II / Boston I / Boston II 2021: Asbury Park / Ohana Encore 1 / Ohana Encore 2 2022: Phoenix / LA I / LA II / Quebec City / Ottawa / New York City / Camden / Nashville / St. Louis / Denver 2023: St. Paul II
Mortals in charge who guess as to the best exit strategy can not fix the economy. The virus is in charge until our medical research community figures this one out.
Unless we are willing to live within a Leftovers plot.
My point is with the vaccine not likely coming until 2021 is that if we open things back up again this summer it is basically a guarantee that a few short months later we will be right back in the situation we are currently in.
And if we do not open back up we be under an economical collapse that none of our generation has ever seen. I think we need to balance both with opening things back up when we are ready and closing in areas that need it when clusters start forming again. Where this puts sports, concerts and school for 2020 and early 2021 I have no clue.
Completely agree! Unfortunately this is the reality we are facing!
The economy has already changed on a fundamental level
If we rush back into public too soon, we could increase the damage to the economy, by scaring people more than they are scared now, by forcing them back into crowded public spaces. If that leads to a new outbreak, goodbye economy and goodbye any trust in our leadership. That might be the action that shakes some of the 40% off of the trump base. At least we have security now by staying isolated if we choose.
Many industries may not be back until we have a treatment. Professional sports, restaurants, airlines, theater, nightclubs, amusement parks, etc.
Trust in leadership cannot be lost in any meaningful way because it is already virtually non-existent.
I agree there has to be a treatment before we can really normalize things.
PJ: 2013: London (ON); Buffalo; 2014: Cincinnati; 2016: Sunrise, Miami, Toronto 1-2, Wrigley 2; 2018: London (UK) 1, Milan, Padova, Sea 2, Wrigley 1-2, Fenway 1-2; 2021: SHN, Ohana, Ohana Encore 1-2; 2022: LA 1-2, Phx, Oak 1-2, Fresno, Copenhagen, Hyde Park 1-2; Quebec, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto; MSG, Camden, Nashville, Louisville, St. Louis, OKC; 2023: St. Paul 1-2, Chicago 1-2; Fort Worth 2; Austin 1-2
EV Solo: 2017 Louisville and Franklin, 2018 Ohana, 2019 Innings Fest, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Dublin and Ohana; 2021 Ohana Friday (from beach) and Saturday; 2022 Earthlings Newark; 2023 Innings Fest and Benoraya 1-2.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
I would add the following items that could help the world slowly return to what the new normal is.
Testing at home. If these tests can get mass produced so that folks can self test, that would be a great thing to slow any potential flare ups. It would also go a long way if tests are available to show that you’ve developed immunity.
Treatments will come. The entire world is working on this and a vaccine. I always believe science will be the beacon. Hopefully by the late fall.
The healthcare system will be be beefed up. PPE, ventilators won’t be in short supply come this fall. The risk of a serious overwhelm of the hospitals should be reduced. You will be able to buy hand sanitizer again soon!
Additionally, human behavior will change. We will wash our hands more often, many will now avoid crowds, and stay at home more often. We will wipe stuff down, avoid handrails, pay attention to our surfaces. Disinfecting will now be a part of all our public buildings routine cleaning services. Movies, concerts and sports will all see a serious decline in attendance, even if we get the all clear.
Finally, while we are a long way from herd immunity, we do have lots of folks who have it. The test results probably only account for 20-30% of the people who actually got it. Could be closer to 40-50% in major metro areas if it is true that kids were getting it prior to schools shut down. So that in and of itself could mean that the next wave of infection won’t be nearly as devastating.
I suspect a phased approach will be used. Small business like hair salons, eye doctors, dry cleaners will open. Offices will open but people will stay distanced. You may see restaurants reopen but be capped at 50% occupancy, etc. I think you will see baseball and football played in empty stadiums.
I want to see this band live as much as anyone, but even with all the items I list above, I feel like best case for concerts is probably 2021.
Root for the scientists kids!
Post edited by Hankj25 on
Seattle 8-8-18 Chicago 8-18-18 Chicago 8-20-18 St. Louis 4-4-20 Denver 4-9-20 Denver 9-22-22 Noblesville 9-10-23 Vancouver 5-6-24 Portland 5-10-24
Mortals in charge who guess as to the best exit strategy can not fix the economy. The virus is in charge until our medical research community figures this one out.
Unless we are willing to live within a Leftovers plot.
I feel like people undermine the economic argument. Like people are going to stay in their home as they're losing them kind of thing.
It's not really just the option of a leftovers plot. If there's no solution within a few months. Then it's Leftover's plot vs. Massive Economic Depression. I think the latter would cause civil unrest. It's easier to get people to stay in their homes right now because they still have savings and the government is spending money to stretch out that period of time. Once the money dries up... it's going to be challenging.
I need to be more positive though. Maybe Social Distancing will work better than expect. Maybe a cure or vaccine gets developed sooner rather than later. Maybe there's an amazing subplot where there were way more people without symptoms then we thought and we find out way more of the population got it and became immune to it than we thought. You never know what could happen in a few months.
I had a flu shot in the fall (vaccine) and still got the flu a few weeks ago...
Are you sure it was the flu? I also received the flu shot back in November and got really sick around Christmas time. I had a dry cough (which I never get) , fever and my throat was so bad I was convinced I had tonsillitis.
There is now many articles stating that Covid-19 was circulating North America as early as late November.
I will never know if I had it or not but it’s something to consider.
1996.....Toronto 2005.....Hamilton 2011.....Toronto N1, Toronto N2, Hamilton 2013.....London, Buffalo 2014.....Detroit 2016.....Toronto N1 Toronto N2, Boston N1, Boston N2, Chicago N1 2018.....Seattle N1, Seattle N2 2022.....San Diego, Los Angeles N1, Los Angeles N2, Phoenix, Oakland N1, Oakland N2, Quebec City, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto 2023.....Fort Worth N1, Fort Worth N2, Austin N1, Austin N2 2024.....????
Comments
One possibility is lots of regular testing and seroloical testing as well. Patient goes to doctor not feeling well in a few months. Gets test. If positive, get better treatments and goes home to rest for 2 weeks. If negative gets serological test. If positive, patient is in the clear and can go do anything. If negative, patient can take their chances and do what they want. Doctors wont be as slammed. By then we may also know a good estimate of the percentage effected and their may be a herd immunity to stop bigger outbreaks.
Heyo... I am here all week!
The foo fighters rescheduled all their spring dates for the fall. A lot of bands have already done their rescheduling for fall or 2021. Have to think PJ announce at least the spring rescheduled dates soon. (Whether they happen or not is the q that remains)
Missoula 6/20/98
Alpine Valley 6/26/98 & 6/27/98
Alpine Valley 10/8/00
Champaign 4/23/03
Alpine Valley 6/21/03
Missoula 8/29/05
Chicago 5/16 & 17/06
Grand Rapids 5/19/06
Summerfest 6/29/06 & 6/30/06
Tampa 6/12/08
Chicago 8/23/09
Indy 5/7/10
Alpine Valley x2 2011
Wrigley 2013
Milwaukee 14
Telluride 16
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
Missoula 6/20/98
Alpine Valley 6/26/98 & 6/27/98
Alpine Valley 10/8/00
Champaign 4/23/03
Alpine Valley 6/21/03
Missoula 8/29/05
Chicago 5/16 & 17/06
Grand Rapids 5/19/06
Summerfest 6/29/06 & 6/30/06
Tampa 6/12/08
Chicago 8/23/09
Indy 5/7/10
Alpine Valley x2 2011
Wrigley 2013
Milwaukee 14
Telluride 16
Many industries may not be back until we have a treatment. Professional sports, restaurants, airlines, theater, nightclubs, amusement parks, etc.
makes us band together. More specifically to the fans of this band and members of this forum, if we all make it out to the other side of this thing we will be stronger than ever.
”Share the light, won’t hold us down”
2012: Atlanta
2013: London ONT / Wrigley Field / Pittsburgh / Buffalo / San Diego / Los Angeles I / Los Angeles II
2014: Cincinnati / St. Louis / Tulsa / Lincoln / Detroit / Denver
2015: New York City
2016: Ft. Lauderdale / Miami / Jacksonville / Greenville / Hampton / Columbia / Lexington / Philly II / New York City II / Toronto II / Bonnaroo / Telluride / Fenway I / Wrigley I / Wrigley - II / TOTD - Philadelphia, San Francisco
2017: Ohana Fest (EV)
2018: Amsterdam I / Amsterdam II / Seattle I / Seattle II / Boston I / Boston II
2021: Asbury Park / Ohana Encore 1 / Ohana Encore 2
2022: Phoenix / LA I / LA II / Quebec City / Ottawa / New York City / Camden / Nashville / St. Louis / Denver
2023: St. Paul II
Mortals in charge who guess as to the best exit strategy can not fix the economy. The virus is in charge until our medical research community figures this one out.
Unless we are willing to live within a Leftovers plot.
I agree there has to be a treatment before we can really normalize things.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
I want to see this band live as much as anyone, but even with all the items I list above, I feel like best case for concerts is probably 2021.
Chicago 8-18-18
Chicago 8-20-18
St. Louis 4-4-20
Denver 4-9-20
Denver 9-22-22
Noblesville 9-10-23
Vancouver 5-6-24
Portland 5-10-24
EV
Chicago 2-9-22
Tempe 2-26-23
07.08.03 MSG 07.09.03 MSG 7.12.03 Hershey 7.14.03 Holmdel 6.12.08 Tampa 10.19.13 Brooklyn 4.11.16 Tampa
5.1.16 MSG 5.2.16 MSG 8.7.16 Fenway 9.2.18 Fenway 9.4.18 Fenway 9.11.22 MSG 9.16.22 Nashville 9.18.23 Austin 9.19.23 Austin
2005.....Hamilton
2011.....Toronto N1, Toronto N2, Hamilton
2013.....London, Buffalo
2014.....Detroit
2016.....Toronto N1 Toronto N2, Boston N1, Boston N2, Chicago N1
2018.....Seattle N1, Seattle N2
2022.....San Diego, Los Angeles N1, Los Angeles N2, Phoenix, Oakland N1, Oakland N2, Quebec City, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto
2023.....Fort Worth N1, Fort Worth N2, Austin N1, Austin N2
2024.....????