2020 Fall North American rumour thread

my_wave

Melzombie said:

anyone else worried that entire year will be wiped out for concerts?

feels that way, but i hope i'm wrong...

GlowGirl

Melzombie said:

anyone else worried that entire year will be wiped out for concerts?

I was just thinking that. But trying not to let my mind go there or to other negative thoughts that keep creeping in. Trying to stay positive. 

RatherStarved

I think it depends if a treatment is found,  If not there’s a risk of no shows at all this year.  I would find that devastating, a little because of the tour, but mostly because of the public health disaster that implies.  

chitownp76

Europe and China is our crystal ball. What happens there now, will portray what will happen here. At least that is how I am looking at it. Once they return to normal business operations and protocol, I would expect we do the same, just a few weeks later

pbultimate

Melzombie said:

anyone else worried that entire year will be wiped out for concerts?

Worried?  No. Expect it?  Yes. 

More concerned about what happens when they release everyone back into the wild. 

Tim Simmons

chitownp76 said:

Once they return to normal business operations and protocol, I would expect we do the same, just a few weeks later

Weeks? more like 2-3 months. 

Zod

chitownp76 said:

Europe and China is our crystal ball. What happens there now, will portray what will happen here. At least that is how I am looking at it. Once they return to normal business operations and protocol, I would expect we do the same, just a few weeks later

I feel like Europe is closer.   China was able to be a little more strict with isolating it's population than we've seen in north america or Europe.

Lerxst1992

Zod said:

chitownp76 said:

Europe and China is our crystal ball. What happens there now, will portray what will happen here. At least that is how I am looking at it. Once they return to normal business operations and protocol, I would expect we do the same, just a few weeks later

I feel like Europe is closer.   China was able to be a little more strict with isolating it's population than we've seen in north america or Europe.

Fauci is starting to say optimistically 45 days to peak so assuming downcurve is similar to up curve we are looking at June 15. 60 day curve would be July 15th. Then the CDC will need to be able to know if a second wave is possible when we start seeing colder weather in late Sept. Many experts are starting to warn all clear may not be for 18 months, unfreaking believable. 

chilisuarez

I predict the same tour dates ... but 2021

D-Rod

Lerxst1992 said:

Zod said:

chitownp76 said:

Europe and China is our crystal ball. What happens there now, will portray what will happen here. At least that is how I am looking at it. Once they return to normal business operations and protocol, I would expect we do the same, just a few weeks later

I feel like Europe is closer.   China was able to be a little more strict with isolating it's population than we've seen in north america or Europe.

Fauci is starting to say optimistically 45 days to peak so assuming downcurve is similar to up curve we are looking at June 15. 60 day curve would be July 15th. Then the CDC will need to be able to know if a second wave is possible when we start seeing colder weather in late Sept. Many experts are starting to warn all clear may not be for 18 months, unfreaking believable. 

Keep in mind.  Self isolation, social distancing , closures , cancelations and postponement are meant to slow down the spread , not stop it.  Nothing will stop it and almost all of us will  come down with it eventually.  Having all of us come down with it at once is the ultimate fear. 

I shouldn’t say “almost all of us” will come down with it.  How about “many of us” will come down with it eventually 

Lost In Ohio

Someone on FB suggests August 13 (Thursday) in Viejas Arena based off a screenshot.

San Diego.

There's a clue that it's "Hosted by Magical Festivals Around" whatever that is.

It's a private group, so you may not be able to see it, but hopefully someone can back me up.


https://www.facebook.com/groups/222176535000272/permalink/640656573152264/

Of course, given the health situation of the world, at this point, I'm just happy to have any rumor, even if it's a 0.1% chance of actually happening.

Mercury

What’s unfortunate about this situation is we may never know about the rumored Fall dates. Since they were never announced there’s not gonna be an official statement on if they’re happening or not. 

Weston1283

Lost In Ohio said:

Someone on FB suggests August 13 (Thursday) in Viejas Arena based off a screenshot.

San Diego.

There's a clue that it's "Hosted by Magical Festivals Around" whatever that is.

It's a private group, so you may not be able to see it, but hopefully someone can back me up.


https://www.facebook.com/groups/222176535000272/permalink/640656573152264/

Of course, given the health situation of the world, at this point, I'm just happy to have any rumor, even if it's a 0.1% chance of actually happening.

I hope not.  August 13th seems really really early.  October is about when I would feel comfortable that this wont get re-cancelled. 

RatherStarved

It’s all guesswork at this point.  August, October, December, whatever. None of the above may be the reality, sadly.

The August argument is it could lie between the first and second waves. Democratic convention moved to August, Kentucky derby early Sept., Indy 500 late August, etc.  But yeah, it all seems improbable right now.

kaw753

I am a manager at Super Mega Corp where tens of thousands of people now work from home. The tipping point for "getting back to normal" is when schools and day care centers re-open. Pretty much all adults in my situation are at home until that happens and nobody is going to rush putting 1000 kids in a building together. I think the current lockdown automatically gets extended to the beginning of the next school year, but going beyond that is super duper major because then there is no end in sight. So.... I have a ticket to Ohana.

primussucks

Even with the social distancing and stay at home orders this virus isnt going away until there is a vaccine!  A vaccine is still likely 12-18 months away.

Zod

Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting?  I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it?  Everything will go bankrupt.  The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months?  Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.

on2legs

Zod said:

Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting?  I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it?  Everything will go bankrupt.  The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months?  Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.

I’m in agreement.  I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most.  That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then.  We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown.  So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system.  I say all of this hopefully. 

Zod

on2legs said:

Zod said:

Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting?  I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it?  Everything will go bankrupt.  The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months?  Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.

I’m in agreement.  I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most.  That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then.  We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown.  So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system.  I say all of this hopefully. 

I think this is the problem.  If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune.  If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again.   I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.

on2legs

Zod said:

on2legs said:

Zod said:

Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting?  I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it?  Everything will go bankrupt.  The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months?  Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.

I’m in agreement.  I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most.  That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then.  We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown.  So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system.  I say all of this hopefully. 

I think this is the problem.  If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune.  If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again.   I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.

People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it. 

RatherStarved

The lockdown also buys time to develop/test treatments.  While only a vaccine can prevent people from catching this, if a half decent treatment is found that could change the equation in the mean time.

pjsteelerfan

on2legs said:

Zod said:

on2legs said:

Zod said:

Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting?  I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it?  Everything will go bankrupt.  The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months?  Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.

I’m in agreement.  I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most.  That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then.  We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown.  So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system.  I say all of this hopefully. 

I think this is the problem.  If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune.  If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again.   I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.

People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it. 

If everything is still in lock down in the fall or into 2021 like people on here are suggesting, there will be another problem just as bad as the virus. The amount of people out of jobs and bankrupt businesses will be devastating. And that's not to downplay on the seriousness of the sick and dying. 

RobZ

If we can get through this thing by summer with the economy intact, I feel the days of 5,000-20,000 people gathering for ANY single event are over for a while.  I think people will need a few years before they feel comfortable again being packed in tightly with large crowds.  Maybe this fall's college football/NFL season (if it goes off)  could be a good gauge of how folks and the arenas respond.

FactoryMan93

RobZ said:

If we can get through this thing by summer with the economy intact, I feel the days of 5,000-20,000 people gathering for ANY single event are over for a while.  I think people will need a few years before they feel comfortable again being packed in tightly with large crowds.  Maybe this fall's college football/NFL season (if it goes off)  could be a good gauge of how folks and the arenas respond.

Perfect... better chance at getting to the rail lol.

PJNB

Call me crazy but if I am told the all clear is here by summer/fall and we are good to have concerts again sign me the fuck up!

Zod

on2legs said:

Zod said:

on2legs said:

Zod said:

Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting?  I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it?  Everything will go bankrupt.  The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months?  Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.

I’m in agreement.  I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most.  That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then.  We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown.  So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system.  I say all of this hopefully. 

I think this is the problem.  If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune.  If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again.   I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.

People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it. 

I get that part.  I'm saying the spread needs to be really slow for health care to keep up.  I think the rate at which they can keep up would take years for enough of the population to be immune to keep it from spreading.  I think you need something like 70 to 80 percent of the public to be immune to something to keep it from spreading quickly.    Thus the lockdown can't end in a few months, because if it did, it would spread rampantly. 

This creates an economic problem.   Right now the governments are doing bailouts of 10 to 15% of their annual GDP.  2 trillion in the US, 85b in Canada, etc...   How long's that going to last for?  A few months at best?   Even the bailouts don't cover everything.    The governments are funding these massive bailouts at the same time their tax base is going to shrivel up.  Government might not be able to fund much more than this.    Small businesses are going struggle hard, big business might follow.   Lots of people will stop being able to pay their rent, mortgages etc....

Our civilization isn't mean for everyone to stay at home for a year or two.    That's why I give it a few months, and people will want to risk going back to normal.  If they don't, then there's not going to be much left to go to.    The "slow it down" approach saves lives, but it creates many other problems.

It's why I feel like this short window is really the only chance to contain it.  More than slow it down.. Figure it out and contain it.  If it doesn't get contained in a couple months there's going to be civil unrest.  People would rather take their chances with the virus then lose their homes and go broke.

ComeToTX

Who’s saying it? The guy that wanted to open things back up next weekend or actual doctors?

kaw753

RobZ said:

If we can get through this thing by summer with the economy intact, I feel the days of 5,000-20,000 people gathering for ANY single event are over for a while.  I think people will need a few years before they feel comfortable again being packed in tightly with large crowds.  Maybe this fall's college football/NFL season (if it goes off)  could be a good gauge of how folks and the arenas respond.

The NFL and the other sports leagues will be content playing in empty stadiums because the TV money will still be coming in. My guess is that the NFL pres-season played in empty stadiums is test #1 in opening things back up.

I don't know. I think after the cases start declining for a month or two that they will just pretty much re-open everything and let people make their own decisions. Unemployment and isolation cause suicide, domestic violence, depression. 

Poncier

kaw753 said:

RobZ said:

If we can get through this thing by summer with the economy intact, I feel the days of 5,000-20,000 people gathering for ANY single event are over for a while.  I think people will need a few years before they feel comfortable again being packed in tightly with large crowds.  Maybe this fall's college football/NFL season (if it goes off)  could be a good gauge of how folks and the arenas respond.

. My guess is that the NFL pres-season played in empty stadiums is test #1 in opening things back up.

That won't be much of a barometer, pre-season games usually have lots of empty seats, can't give those tickets away. 

on2legs

Zod said:

on2legs said:

Zod said:

on2legs said:

Zod said:

Am I the only one who doubts the world's ability to stay in their home for as long as the two previous posts are suggesting?  I don't think the world (at least North America) can do it?  Everything will go bankrupt.  The government can't afford to pay everyone to stay at home for more than a couple months?  Once that ends... I feel like there would be civil unrest.

I’m in agreement.  I don’t think the lockdown in the US will last more than 2 months. 3 at the most.  That’s not saying the virus will be gone by then.  We will still have people get sick after the lockdown is over but the threat of hospitals being overwhelmed should hopefully diminish after the lockdown.  So the people who do get sick can be treated without overwhelming the Healthcare system.  I say all of this hopefully. 

I think this is the problem.  If lockdowns work then the overwhelming majority isn't immune.  If anyone still has it when lockdowns end then it'll be like a tinderbox and flare up again.   I suppose I'm pessimistic but if it lasts longer than a few months I see public opinion changing to let's pull the band-aid.

People will definitely have it when the lockdown ends. The lockdown is not about eradication - it’s about slowing the rate of infection to the point where the healthcare system can manage it. 

I get that part.  I'm saying the spread needs to be really slow for health care to keep up.  I think the rate at which they can keep up would take years for enough of the population to be immune to keep it from spreading.  I think you need something like 70 to 80 percent of the public to be immune to something to keep it from spreading quickly.    Thus the lockdown can't end in a few months, because if it did, it would spread rampantly. 

This creates an economic problem.   Right now the governments are doing bailouts of 10 to 15% of their annual GDP.  2 trillion in the US, 85b in Canada, etc...   How long's that going to last for?  A few months at best?   Even the bailouts don't cover everything.    The governments are funding these massive bailouts at the same time their tax base is going to shrivel up.  Government might not be able to fund much more than this.    Small businesses are going struggle hard, big business might follow.   Lots of people will stop being able to pay their rent, mortgages etc....

Our civilization isn't mean for everyone to stay at home for a year or two.    That's why I give it a few months, and people will want to risk going back to normal.  If they don't, then there's not going to be much left to go to.    The "slow it down" approach saves lives, but it creates many other problems.

It's why I feel like this short window is really the only chance to contain it.  More than slow it down.. Figure it out and contain it.  If it doesn't get contained in a couple months there's going to be civil unrest.  People would rather take their chances with the virus then lose their homes and go broke.

You can't contain it without a vaccine.  The quarantine will hopefully slow it down enough to make healthcare manageable and buy us time while a vaccine is developed.