2020 Fall North American rumour thread

RatherStarved

It all depends when there’s a treatment, a vaccine, or herd immunity.  

ComeToTX

Exactly. Speculation without any of those is pointless. 

afgpj

NYC has the worst outbreak in the country.  They've cancelled concerts, etc. through June. - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/new-york-city-cancels-summer-festivals-concerts-and-parades-through-june.html
We will know within the next 2-3 months if there will be any shows in 2020   

Weston1283

Life is Beautiful festival, Sept 18-20, has been canceled

This is the first fall festival canceled as far as I am aware of and puts some bad writing on the wall for any 2020 shows

jimjam1982

joseph33

Sanitize the arena's. Have everyone wear a mask. And make hand sanitizer available. Let the show begin!

pjl44

joseph33 said:

Sanitize the arena's. Have everyone wear a mask. And make hand sanitizer available. Let the show begin!

It kills me to say it but I think large indoor events will be the last thing we get back

RatherStarved

pjl44 said:

joseph33 said:

Sanitize the arena's. Have everyone wear a mask. And make hand sanitizer available. Let the show begin!

It kills me to say it but I think large indoor events will be the last thing we get back

This is becoming increasingly evident.  Hopefully there will be a treatment breakthrough before too long.

3days

Just got an email that the following September Louisville, KY festivals have been cancelled:
Hometown Rising
Louder Than Life
Bourbon & Beyond

All 3 are hopeful to return in 2021.

hihobibo

Paul McCartney called into Stern last week, and he brought up a chilling point. There are some artists who we may never see play a live show again, due to this virus changing the ways shows are put on, and the delays to their current tours. In addition, there are bands who cannot get that big break right now, and their chance at stardom may be gone.

Melzombie

Do you guys think smaller, theatre venue shows will be allowed in the later part of the year? with certain measures, of course. Obviously this won't work with PJ, but just curious. 

Zod

Melzombie said:

Do you guys think smaller, theatre venue shows will be allowed in the later part of the year? with certain measures, of course. Obviously this won't work with PJ, but just curious. 

I'm not sure how.  Similar to seats in arena, all the seats in a theatre are right next to each other.   The only real difference being there might only be 1000 to 3000 people for it to spread instead of 18000 at an arena.

If you have to social distance they would have to space seats out by 1 or 2 empty ones between every person.

The only way I see them happening is if our goal changes.   From flattening the curve to herd immunity.   It's not good for keep the curve flat, it's not so bad for herd immunity,

Vedd Hedd

Our best case scenario here is that the virus was among us much longer than we had hoped, and most people werent symptomatic, and that the antibodies provide some immunity, and with that, the herd immunity.  That is a LOT of iffs, and it really is the best case scenario. 

The next best case is that we get a vaccine (remember, a lot of viruses that have been around for a long time still dont have vaccines), and that we buy enough time to get an effective treatment, so that critical cases go down to almost nothing.  

Vedd Hedd

Oh, i meant to say....hoping for Fall concerts is a pipe dream. If it happens, great, wonderful.    But dont count on it.  We need to hit 35 other milestones before we get to concerts. 

RatherStarved

Or sell 10k seats in a NFL stadium, leaving 5 of every 6 seats empty, but why bother.  We need the medical community to come up with a treatment.  For health first.  But also for fun things like shows.  They’re working on it.

Vedd Hedd

kst said:

Or sell 10k seats in a NFL stadium, leaving 5 of every 6 seats empty, but why bother.  We need the medical community to come up with a treatment.  For health first.  But also for fun things like shows.  They’re working on it.

Right, i mean, why risk it, why bother if this is what is going on at the time.  

I would pay $$$ for a live studio event though.  I'm sure they could socially distance.  And raise money for charity.  But we are still a bit away from this too. 

Lerxst1992

Zod said:

Melzombie said:

Do you guys think smaller, theatre venue shows will be allowed in the later part of the year? with certain measures, of course. Obviously this won't work with PJ, but just curious. 

I'm not sure how.  Similar to seats in arena, all the seats in a theatre are right next to each other.   The only real difference being there might only be 1000 to 3000 people for it to spread instead of 18000 at an arena.

If you have to social distance they would have to space seats out by 1 or 2 empty ones between every person.

The only way I see them happening is if our goal changes.   From flattening the curve to herd immunity.   It's not good for keep the curve flat, it's not so bad for herd immunity,

What's the difference between a 2000 seat theater and a large office building with thousands going thru the elevators or a large school with hundreds walking the halls?

It seems once they open the necessities like work and school they might as let us have shows.

Lost In Ohio

kst said:

Or sell 10k seats in a NFL stadium, leaving 5 of every 6 seats empty, but why bother.  We need the medical community to come up with a treatment.  For health first.  But also for fun things like shows.  They’re working on it.

And then people sit next to their friends and family anyway.

Torontonian

Let’s work on life getting back (and that will be slow methodically chunks) before we can even talk about concerts.  But I do passionately miss them.  Man I know for one I will appreciate things more after this.  We gotta get some good out of this. ❤️

ComeToTX

Lerxst1992 said:

Zod said:

Melzombie said:

Do you guys think smaller, theatre venue shows will be allowed in the later part of the year? with certain measures, of course. Obviously this won't work with PJ, but just curious. 

I'm not sure how.  Similar to seats in arena, all the seats in a theatre are right next to each other.   The only real difference being there might only be 1000 to 3000 people for it to spread instead of 18000 at an arena.

If you have to social distance they would have to space seats out by 1 or 2 empty ones between every person.

The only way I see them happening is if our goal changes.   From flattening the curve to herd immunity.   It's not good for keep the curve flat, it's not so bad for herd immunity,

What's the difference between a 2000 seat theater and a large office building with thousands going thru the elevators or a large school with hundreds walking the halls?

It seems once they open the necessities like work and school they might as let us have shows.

That’s not happening anytime soon either. 

josevolution

Without a vaccine you can close the calendar on 2020 as far as concerts are concerned.

RatherStarved

josevolution said:

Without a vaccine you can close the calendar on 2020 as far as concerts are concerned.

Very likely true.  A treatment would probably unlock things as well.  

PB11041

It is funny how so many people just assume there will be a vaccine.  The far more likely scenario is that we will indeed have to herd immunity our way through this and use the reverse logic that had to be applied to shutdowns due to complete lack of preparedness everywhere.  

The most logical scientific outcome, herd immunity, anti-viral medical developments and applications of extreme distancing measures for the vulnerable for a long long time until the virus is less prevalent, but even that part for the extreme at risk could be a virtually incalculable amount of time, 2 years, 5 years who knows.

Could science hit a bullseye, sure, that would be great, but the odds of having an effective vaccine by 2021 are really not good. 

If you are pinning your hopes on a vaccine to get back to the routines of life, let alone concerts, you are selling yourself fools gold. 

Data about coronaviruses would pin the odds on a vaccine at slim.   

JimmyV

Seeing fall festivals get cancelled isn't unexpected but somehow is still devastating.

Lerxst1992

ComeToTX said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Zod said:

Melzombie said:

Do you guys think smaller, theatre venue shows will be allowed in the later part of the year? with certain measures, of course. Obviously this won't work with PJ, but just curious. 

I'm not sure how.  Similar to seats in arena, all the seats in a theatre are right next to each other.   The only real difference being there might only be 1000 to 3000 people for it to spread instead of 18000 at an arena.

If you have to social distance they would have to space seats out by 1 or 2 empty ones between every person.

The only way I see them happening is if our goal changes.   From flattening the curve to herd immunity.   It's not good for keep the curve flat, it's not so bad for herd immunity,

What's the difference between a 2000 seat theater and a large office building with thousands going thru the elevators or a large school with hundreds walking the halls?

It seems once they open the necessities like work and school they might as let us have shows.

That’s not happening anytime soon either. 

I think there will be a strong push from the right to open schools by Labor Day , as we are seeing now with retail. I can’t figure out how we open schools before science finds some sort of quality treatment.

Lerxst1992

PB11041 said:

It is funny how so many people just assume there will be a vaccine.  The far more likely scenario is that we will indeed have to herd immunity our way through this and use the reverse logic that had to be applied to shutdowns due to complete lack of preparedness everywhere.  

The most logical scientific outcome, herd immunity, anti-viral medical developments and applications of extreme distancing measures for the vulnerable for a long long time until the virus is less prevalent, but even that part for the extreme at risk could be a virtually incalculable amount of time, 2 years, 5 years who knows.

Could science hit a bullseye, sure, that would be great, but the odds of having an effective vaccine by 2021 are really not good. 

If you are pinning your hopes on a vaccine to get back to the routines of life, let alone concerts, you are selling yourself fools gold. 

Data about coronaviruses would pin the odds on a vaccine at slim.   

It is certainly not funny and a vaccine is not the only treatment possible. Anti virals are also a strong possibility, as you suggest.

”Targeted social distancing” as was promoted by that quack on Bill Maher last night - is about tearing apart families in the middle of a crisis, because often high risk parents are living with their low risk children. Of course someone who never bothered to have kids like Maher could care less about that issue. And Maher has a vested interest in getting back to normal because he makes a ton of money playing shows.

Herd immunity could bring with it 2 million deaths, even more if we overwhelm our healthcare system and are unable to treat heart attacks and other life threatening emergencies. You want to destroy the economy the herd immunity option is definitely the way to go.

...and of course herd immunity is still S.C.I.E.N.C.E. fiction as of today (iPad automatically auto corrected to incubus version!!)

According to WHO, “There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.”

also,
” The FDA is not aware of an antibody test that has been validated for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. While the FDA remains open to receiving submissions for these tests for such uses, based on the underlying scientific principles of antibody tests, the FDA does not expect that an antibody test can be shown to definitively diagnose or exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

RatherStarved

Can we go back to complaining about the number of east coast shows? 

Lerxst1992

You can have my tickets. 

PB11041

Lerxst1992 said:

PB11041 said:

It is funny how so many people just assume there will be a vaccine.  The far more likely scenario is that we will indeed have to herd immunity our way through this and use the reverse logic that had to be applied to shutdowns due to complete lack of preparedness everywhere.  

The most logical scientific outcome, herd immunity, anti-viral medical developments and applications of extreme distancing measures for the vulnerable for a long long time until the virus is less prevalent, but even that part for the extreme at risk could be a virtually incalculable amount of time, 2 years, 5 years who knows.

Could science hit a bullseye, sure, that would be great, but the odds of having an effective vaccine by 2021 are really not good. 

If you are pinning your hopes on a vaccine to get back to the routines of life, let alone concerts, you are selling yourself fools gold. 

Data about coronaviruses would pin the odds on a vaccine at slim.   

It is certainly not funny and a vaccine is not the only treatment possible. Anti virals are also a strong possibility, as you suggest.

”Targeted social distancing” as was promoted by that quack on Bill Maher last night - is about tearing apart families in the middle of a crisis, because often high risk parents are living with their low risk children. Of course someone who never bothered to have kids like Maher could care less about that issue. And Maher has a vested interest in getting back to normal because he makes a ton of money playing shows.

Herd immunity could bring with it 2 million deaths, even more if we overwhelm our healthcare system and are unable to treat heart attacks and other life threatening emergencies. You want to destroy the economy the herd immunity option is definitely the way to go.

...and of course herd immunity is still S.C.I.E.N.C.E. fiction as of today (iPad automatically auto corrected to incubus version!!)

According to WHO, “There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.”

also,
” The FDA is not aware of an antibody test that has been validated for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. While the FDA remains open to receiving submissions for these tests for such uses, based on the underlying scientific principles of antibody tests, the FDA does not expect that an antibody test can be shown to definitively diagnose or exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

You should look up the definition of funny, because it does not always mean haha, that is funny.

Listen doctor and economist, all I am talking about is the reality.  

In the meantime, the things that the WHO has been wrong about during the course of this event will be fought about for years.  According to the WHO, China did an excellent job and contained the virus, except that it exploded all over the world.  According to the WHO, there was no evidence a person without symptoms of the virus could carry and transfer the virus, except that they can.  According to the WHO, people should not wear masks, except wear masks.  

Also tearing apart families is a bit dramatic.

Lerxst1992

Most of us were wrong about this early on, including both American political parties and nearly every government and health organization on earth. 

But that is the reason for caution. It takes time to learn exactly what this novel virus is doing and how to develop a treatment. Splitting society at this early stage (yes, early) into “vulnerable” and non vulnerable groups for isolation where a majority of households consist of both is an strong position and far more damaging to the fabric of society than thinking humans can solve an economic depression caused by a pandemic. That’s exactly what we did for polio and if you think there are protests now, just wait to see if Dr Katz’ separation theories idolized on FOX become reality.

People will not be rushing back to restaurants, stadiums or airplanes anytime soon, no matter what the govt policy is.