After String Of Losses, Sanders Campaign To Lay Off 'Hundreds' Of Staffers http://n.pr/1SKTFn4
Excellent Sun Tzu strategy.
And don't forget-- breathe.
The Five Stages of Grief:
#1 - Denial
Not grieving at all. No matter what happens, I still have hope (as in my oft quoted Haclav Havel statement) which I will never get from Hillary Inc., and not matter what happens, Bernie has started into motion the much needed change from a corporate run world that, unless you are in the 1% rich, is not in your best interest.
So by the way, how's that job working for Hillary going?
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
What are the attacks? I've been seeing this so much, especially from Clinton supporters, and I just don't get it. Maybe I have a different idea of what an attack is from one campaign to another.
"Hillary Clinton has accumulated approximately 12 million votes thus far.
She will more than likely have around 20 million voters by the time the primaries have concluded.
Compare this with the 60 million voters Barack Obama had in the 2008 general election and you see that Hillary is not even close to acquiring the votes needed to win the presidency."
What in the world do votes in a primary have to do with votes in a general? There are several reasons why these two numbers have nothing to do with one another beyond the obvious that the candidate with the most primary votes will be in the general (in normal circumstances).
I don't think Sanders has a chance at the nomination, but also understand why he and his supporters want him to stay in until the convention. He still has a voice and still has some impact. This has been a goofy, unpredictable primary campaign for both parties, but I don't see how Sanders actually wins the nomination.
I don't think Sanders has a chance at the nomination, but also understand why he and his supporters want him to stay in until the convention. He still has a voice and still has some impact. This has been a goofy, unpredictable primary campaign for both parties, but I don't see how Sanders actually wins the nomination.
I don't think Sanders has a chance at the nomination, but also understand why he and his supporters want him to stay in until the convention. He still has a voice and still has some impact. This has been a goofy, unpredictable primary campaign for both parties, but I don't see how Sanders actually wins the nomination.
I don't think Sanders has a chance at the nomination, but also understand why he and his supporters want him to stay in until the convention. He still has a voice and still has some impact. This has been a goofy, unpredictable primary campaign for both parties, but I don't see how Sanders actually wins the nomination.
I don't think Sanders has a chance at the nomination, but also understand why he and his supporters want him to stay in until the convention. He still has a voice and still has some impact. This has been a goofy, unpredictable primary campaign for both parties, but I don't see how Sanders actually wins the nomination.
If an indictment, or even a criminal referral, comes before June Bernie will be the only thing standing between America and president Chump.
Good point, and for that reason alone it makes sense for him to ride it out.
Did you read the article? The reason for him to ride it out isn't only because of a possible indictment, (I doubt it though), it's because Hillary won't have enough delegates to win the nomination. By Sanders staying in and winning delegates, it will cause a contested convention.
I don't think Sanders has a chance at the nomination, but also understand why he and his supporters want him to stay in until the convention. He still has a voice and still has some impact. This has been a goofy, unpredictable primary campaign for both parties, but I don't see how Sanders actually wins the nomination.
If an indictment, or even a criminal referral, comes before June Bernie will be the only thing standing between America and president Chump.
Good point, and for that reason alone it makes sense for him to ride it out.
Did you read the article? The reason for him to ride it out isn't only because of a possible indictment, (I doubt it though), it's because Hillary won't have enough delegates to win the nomination. By Sanders staying in and winning delegates, it will cause a contested convention.
I did read the article and the author seems to think the super-delegates aren't going to do what many have already pledged, and vote for Hillary. Apparently, according to the article, they aren't going to vote for Hillary because they know they'll lose the vote of independents and Bernie supporters, essentially handing the election to Trump. The super-delegates will apparently jump on the Bernie bandwagon to insure the independent vote, and the votes of disaffected Republicans. It is a theory, I suppose. I guess we'll see. I don't think it is that simple. All of the math added up, but it was based on assumptions made by the author, many of which are pretty speculative. That's why I posted a counter argument, also math based, which showed a pretty difficult comeback needed by Bernie.
But what about Obama? Sanders supporters have compared their candidate’s current deficit to Obama’s in 2008, but at this point in that election Obama was actually winning by 143 pledged delegates — enough that Clinton, despite still holding a lead in superdelegates, was receiving pressure to drop out of the race. In fact, Obama was at no point in 2008 actually behind Clinton in pledged delegates. It’s just that the media usually included superdelegates in their counts in 2008, and the DNC has instructed them not to this time around. That’s because we’ve learned our lesson: Superdelegates can change their mind. Unfortunately for Sanders, pledged delegates can’t.
If Obama isn’t a good comparison for Sanders, who is? There’s no good answer to this question because most candidates in Sanders’s position dropped out long before this point in the race. The median comeback score for a candidate on the day he ends his campaign is 53 percent; Sanders is, as of today, over 58 percent. He crossed over the 53 percent mark on March 12, back when Marco Rubio was still in the Republican race.
To reiterate: I’m not counting superdelegates. If I were, his comeback score would be 83 percent.
"I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
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brianlux
Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,072
We will definitely be putting on the push for Bernie here in California. Yes, it's an uphill battle but no, we aren't giving up.
What happened to this country anyway? Look how quickly people cave in and say, "It can't (or won't happen." Since when did we become incapable of fighting and beating the odds? No me. I see no reason to cave in. Not on this issue, not on global warming, not on species extinction and not on my hopes that "Riot Act" and "No Code" will be reissued on vinyl so that I can finally hear what they really sound like.
Come on people, brave the change. It will be good for you!
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
I more have the impression that it's about having absolutely no faith in a rigged system, not being unwilling to brave the change or about giving up when the numbers are a bit grim.
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
For sure! Only I can't find any speaking engagements near Sacramento. Surely he will come to our state capitol which is an hour away but I can't find an event. Argh!
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
For sure! Only I can't find any speaking engagements near Sacramento. Surely he will come to our state capitol which is an hour away but I can't find an event. Argh!
For sure! Only I can't find any speaking engagements near Sacramento. Surely he will come to our state capitol which is an hour away but I can't find an event. Argh!
They are usually announced within a week of the event.
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brianlux
Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,072
For sure! Only I can't find any speaking engagements near Sacramento. Surely he will come to our state capitol which is an hour away but I can't find an event. Argh!
For sure! Only I can't find any speaking engagements near Sacramento. Surely he will come to our state capitol which is an hour away but I can't find an event. Argh!
They are usually announced within a week of the event.
Thanks! I get Bernie emails all the time so I'll be watching.
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
For sure! Only I can't find any speaking engagements near Sacramento. Surely he will come to our state capitol which is an hour away but I can't find an event. Argh!
For sure! Only I can't find any speaking engagements near Sacramento. Surely he will come to our state capitol which is an hour away but I can't find an event. Argh!
They are usually announced within a week of the event.
Thanks! I get Bernie emails all the time so I'll be watching.
For sure! Only I can't find any speaking engagements near Sacramento. Surely he will come to our state capitol which is an hour away but I can't find an event. Argh!
For sure! Only I can't find any speaking engagements near Sacramento. Surely he will come to our state capitol which is an hour away but I can't find an event. Argh!
They are usually announced within a week of the event.
Thanks! I get Bernie emails all the time so I'll be watching.
(Ed talks about the amount of information we are subject to in the modern age as compared to the 17th century and how all of that information can wear you down. He talks about politicians spewing BS and promoting fear. He suggests that the networks like to make sure that elections go “all seven games” for ratings. He suggests that Bernie Sanders might be the best candidate but the press has a business to run. Ed describes the next song as one of the best ever that describes that feeling of being overwhelmed by all the bad news and fear mongering in the world. 26. Driven To Tears-(Sting). Special Guest Sting (Ed sings the top of the song then Sting comes out to sing the rest.)
He said something Sunday night too. Why are there no entertaining posts about this? Has this train stalled? I came here to be entertained!
14. Wishlist (Ed lyrically expresses interest in running for president, confident he could do a better job than Trump or Cruz and manages to make a small penis joke. And while he likes Hillary he is feeling ‘The Bern’. He goes on to encourage young people to go out and vote and stay active politically.)
I know several people I work with voted for Sanders ... but they are Republicans and did it in a strategy to defeat Clinton
Jason, forgive me for my lack of knowledge on how primaries work in the States, but I thought you had to affiliate with either Democrats or Republicans prior to the primaries, in order to cast a vote for one of their running candidates? Weren't there just big fusses in fact over how hard it was to switch your affiliation, and some people's affiliations being switched beforehand without their consent? I'm surprised to hear this can be exploited in the other direction too (too many votes as opposed to too few).
'05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
I know several people I work with voted for Sanders ... but they are Republicans and did it in a strategy to defeat Clinton
Jason, forgive me for my lack of knowledge on how primaries work in the States, but I thought you had to affiliate with either Democrats or Republicans prior to the primaries, in order to cast a vote for one of their running candidates? Weren't there just big fusses in fact over how hard it was to switch your affiliation, and some people's affiliations being switched beforehand without their consent? I'm surprised to hear this can be exploited in the other direction too (too many votes as opposed to too few).
That's what I thought, but I guess it varies state to state. I went in, they asked which party I wanted to vote for, and then I voted. I'm not registered to either party.
Here are five immediate repercussions to Ted Cruz dropping out of the Republican primary:
1. News coverage for the Democratic primary, and thus Bernie Sanders, will increase exponentially — immediately.
Without Trump in the field, all of the focus on future election nights — nine states and several territories over the next 45 days — will be on Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
2. Sanders will pick up a huge number of what would otherwise be Trump votes in states where voters are still able to register for upcoming Democratic primaries, or are able to cross over and vote in the Democratic primary due to being a registered independent.
Sanders’ vote share in nearly every upcoming primary and caucus just increased, though we don’t know by how much. In some instances, it could be a substantial bump, given that there’s no strategic reason to cast a vote for Donald Trump anymore — now that the Republican National Committee has officially declared him the presumptive nominee and a John Kasich dropout is likely imminent.
3. Clinton will have to start spending a great deal of money to fight a two-front war against Donald Trump, who’ll begin his ultra-negative primary campaign against Clinton immediately, and Bernie Sanders, who will avoid attacking Clinton directly but has nevertheless vowed to take the Democratic primary to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.
This is the worst imaginable scenario for Clinton, as her negatives have always gone up when she’s in the midst of a campaign — and now she’s in the middle of two at once. With Clinton’s attention divided, her ability to respond to any Bernie Sanders surge in upcoming states will be limited.
4. Sanders now has a greatly increased chance of winning all of the remaining Democratic primaries and caucuses.
Sanders was already looking strong in Oregon, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Kentucky, North Dakota, and California, but given that he’s within single digits in New Jersey (where Trump is very popular) and performed incredibly well with nonwhite voters in Indiana (meaning New Mexico could be in play), it’s not unthinkable that Hillary Clinton could lose all of the remaining primaries and caucuses and therefore as many as thirteen or fourteen contests in a row to finish the Democratic primary season.
This would send Clinton to Philly a deeply wounded front-runner, even if she maintains a strong (but much diminished) delegate lead over Sanders. So there’s a chance that Clinton will go to Philly with a delegate lead but also having lost 22 or 23 of the final 30 contests in the Democratic primary.
If that happens, it’s tough to say how super-delegates will view a Clinton candidacy, especially now that the latest national polling (Rasmussen) already has her down by two points to Trump.
If that happens, it’s tough to say how super-delegates will view a Clinton candidacy, especially now that the latest national polling (Rasmussen) already has her down by two points to Trump.
5. The Democrats will have a contested convention, and the Republicans won’t.
Few saw this coming, but assuming Bernie Sanders maintains his pledge to contest the Democratic convention unless Clinton can get 2,383 pledged delegates by June 14th — which she can’t, barring a miracle — only one of the two major parties will go to their convention divided, and with (not for nothing) the sort of logistical hurdles that come with that. For instance, when does Clinton roll out a Vice Presidential candidate? Before a convention she knows will be contested? At a time when a few super-delegates might abandon her?
The larger question: do some quantity of super-delegates switch to Sanders if the possibilities explored in items #1 through #4 above — particularly with respect to the upcoming primaries and caucuses — come to pass?
All we know for sure is that Ted Cruz dropping out of the Republican race has changed the Democratic race almost as profoundly as the Republican one.
Comments
So by the way, how's that job working for Hillary going?
No so good on our side- most of us got laid off *
But we're still working anyway!
Not that I was ever really hired of course. In fact, being a Bernie fan cost me money. Money well spent!
This is What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention
https://johnlaurits.com/2016/04/28/this-is-what-will-happen-at-the-democratic-convention/
Math from a different perspective as well: A Sanders Comeback Would Be Unprecedented
What happened to this country anyway? Look how quickly people cave in and say, "It can't (or won't happen." Since when did we become incapable of fighting and beating the odds? No me. I see no reason to cave in. Not on this issue, not on global warming, not on species extinction and not on my hopes that "Riot Act" and "No Code" will be reissued on vinyl so that I can finally hear what they really sound like.
Come on people, brave the change. It will be good for you!
And yup, lots of hands manipulating it all in ways.
I came here to be entertained!
LIVEFOOTSTEPS.ORG/USER/?USR=435
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/05/03/5-reasons-bernie-sanders-wins-big-cruz-dropout
Here are five immediate repercussions to Ted Cruz dropping out of the Republican primary:
1. News coverage for the Democratic primary, and thus Bernie Sanders, will increase exponentially — immediately.
Without Trump in the field, all of the focus on future election nights — nine states and several territories over the next 45 days — will be on Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
2. Sanders will pick up a huge number of what would otherwise be Trump votes in states where voters are still able to register for upcoming Democratic primaries, or are able to cross over and vote in the Democratic primary due to being a registered independent.
Sanders’ vote share in nearly every upcoming primary and caucus just increased, though we don’t know by how much. In some instances, it could be a substantial bump, given that there’s no strategic reason to cast a vote for Donald Trump anymore — now that the Republican National Committee has officially declared him the presumptive nominee and a John Kasich dropout is likely imminent.
3. Clinton will have to start spending a great deal of money to fight a two-front war against Donald Trump, who’ll begin his ultra-negative primary campaign against Clinton immediately, and Bernie Sanders, who will avoid attacking Clinton directly but has nevertheless vowed to take the Democratic primary to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.
This is the worst imaginable scenario for Clinton, as her negatives have always gone up when she’s in the midst of a campaign — and now she’s in the middle of two at once. With Clinton’s attention divided, her ability to respond to any Bernie Sanders surge in upcoming states will be limited.
4. Sanders now has a greatly increased chance of winning all of the remaining Democratic primaries and caucuses.
Sanders was already looking strong in Oregon, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Kentucky, North Dakota, and California, but given that he’s within single digits in New Jersey (where Trump is very popular) and performed incredibly well with nonwhite voters in Indiana (meaning New Mexico could be in play), it’s not unthinkable that Hillary Clinton could lose all of the remaining primaries and caucuses and therefore as many as thirteen or fourteen contests in a row to finish the Democratic primary season.
This would send Clinton to Philly a deeply wounded front-runner, even if she maintains a strong (but much diminished) delegate lead over Sanders. So there’s a chance that Clinton will go to Philly with a delegate lead but also having lost 22 or 23 of the final 30 contests in the Democratic primary.
If that happens, it’s tough to say how super-delegates will view a Clinton candidacy, especially now that the latest national polling (Rasmussen) already has her down by two points to Trump.
If that happens, it’s tough to say how super-delegates will view a Clinton candidacy, especially now that the latest national polling (Rasmussen) already has her down by two points to Trump.
5. The Democrats will have a contested convention, and the Republicans won’t.
Few saw this coming, but assuming Bernie Sanders maintains his pledge to contest the Democratic convention unless Clinton can get 2,383 pledged delegates by June 14th — which she can’t, barring a miracle — only one of the two major parties will go to their convention divided, and with (not for nothing) the sort of logistical hurdles that come with that. For instance, when does Clinton roll out a Vice Presidential candidate? Before a convention she knows will be contested? At a time when a few super-delegates might abandon her?
The larger question: do some quantity of super-delegates switch to Sanders if the possibilities explored in items #1 through #4 above — particularly with respect to the upcoming primaries and caucuses — come to pass?
All we know for sure is that Ted Cruz dropping out of the Republican race has changed the Democratic race almost as profoundly as the Republican one.