He needs to keep doing what he's been doing. That includes exposing the truth. We citizens of this country deserve the truth. Trump is going to hit her hard, and I'm sure he'll have some juicy stories to share regarding the Clinton's. It's only going to get nastier for her.
Clinton might not get enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination, so Sanders needs to keep firing! He will not drop out and we will keep supporting him until the very end, when we're electing Donald Trump.
Post edited by Boxes&Books on
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brianlux
Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,072
^^^ Well said, tonifig8!
"Hope is not the conviction that things will things will turn out well. Hope is the conviction to do what makes sense no matter how things turn out." -Vaclav Havel
It makes sense to me to keep supporting Bernie. It makes sense for Bernie to stay in the race and he is.
It does not make sense to keep on with business as usual. Hillary is business as usual. I'm not losing any sleep over this business. I'm still confident Bernie can and is making a major impact on exposing how corrupt the system is and how tied Hillary is to that big money corruption.
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
Hillary Clinton needs to win 65.3 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to avoid a contested Democratic convention at which she and Bernie Sanders separately plead their cases to the Party’s 714 unpledged “super-delegates.”
Democratic candidates in 2016 need 2,383 pledged delegates to win the Party’s nomination via pledged delegates alone. Barring Senator Sanders dropping out of the Democratic race prior to the New York primary, it is virtually impossible for Secretary Clinton to hit that mark.
Here are Clinton’s current percentages of the total vote in upcoming primary states, according to the most recent polling available in each state:
California: 47 Maryland: 55 New York: 53 Pennsylvania: 49
Recent polling isn’t available in any of the other upcoming primaries and caucuses.
FiveThirtyEight.com has routinely referred to Maryland — where Secretary Clinton is presently capturing 55 percent of the prospective vote — as her best remaining state.
Because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally in each state — roughly if not perfectly matching the popular vote in individual primary and caucus votes — the numbers above suggest Clinton’s only hope to receive 65.3 percent of the remaining Democratic delegates is for Bernie Sanders to end his presidential bid immediately.
Nationally, the three most recent polls give Clinton the following positioning relative to Sanders: behind by 1 point; ahead by 1 point; and behind by two points.
Senator Sanders is unlikely to drop out of a primary race he is currently winning according to the most recent national polling.
The question, given the above data, is not what percentage Sanders or Clinton will win by in upcoming states, but rather how strong a case each candidate will be able to make to super-delegates, who don’t cast any votes until the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia — the media’s decision to pretend that they do, against the express direction of the Democratic National Committee, notwithstanding.
Right now here’s Senator Sanders’ case to super-delegates, which the media has routinely described as weak:
* He beats every remaining GOP candidate by more than Clinton, per head-to-head national polling.
*He beats every remaining GOP candidate by either more or the same amount as Clinton in head-to-head battleground-state polling (and much more commonly by far more). According to studies, we’re right in the middle of a spike in general-election polling accuracy — right now, as in this minute. As Vox notes, “By the time we get to mid-April of an election year, polls explain about half the variance in the eventual vote split. And mid-April polls have correctly ‘called’ the winner in about two-thirds of the cases since 1952.” In simpler terms, mid-April political polling is historically as accurate as polling taken 90 days before a contested general election.
*His +5.3 national favorable/unfavorable ratings are approximately twenty points better than Clinton’s (-14).
*He currently beats Clinton in national polls of Democrats.
*Counting Arizona, where Sanders won Election Day voting 50.0 percent to 46.5 percent, Sanders has won eight elections in a row. The most losses in a row President Obama ever suffered in 2008 was two.
*He is not under federal investigation. While the current FBI investigation into Clinton’s private email server is unlikely to result in an indictment, it could damage her standing among independent voters in the general election. Thus far this election cycle, Sanders has generally beaten Clinton among the independent voters who often decide general elections by between 25 and 35 points.
*National and battleground-state polling show that Sanders would win the nonwhite vote by almost exactly the same margin as Clinton — and in many cases an identical margin — were he the Democratic nominee instead of her.
*Clinton won 60% of the delegates in February, 51% in March, and so far 45% in April, suggesting a campaign that is (and dramatically) losing steam rather than gaining it. Clinton is on pace to either win her home state’s primary by much less than she did in 2008 — when she beat President Obama in New York by 17.1 percent — or even lose the state outright.
*Sanders is a “movement” candidate in the mold of the last two successful Democratic campaigns for President (Obama, Bill Clinton) whereas Clinton is a policy wonk for whom few Democrats have personal affection, much like Al Gore and John Kerry were. Both men lost elections that all national indicators said they should have won.
*Because Trump (-35) and Cruz (-21) have favorability ratings so historically underwater the Republican establishment can’t let either of them be the GOP nominee, looking at how the Democratic candidates match up against John Kasich — the most popular politician, by far, now running for President in either party — is worthwhile. Clinton has never beaten Kasich in a head-to-head poll in 2016; Sanders has beaten Kasich in five of the nine head-to-head polls taken in 2016, and averages a 2.7 percent victory over Kasich across all 2016 head-to-head polling.
*Clinton’s favorability rating among Republicans (7 percent) is so low that if she is nominated she will re-unify the Republican Party following a divisive and possibly self-destructive Republican National Convention. Sanders’ favorability among Republicans is twice as high, with ten times as many Republicans saying they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion (suggesting his favorability among registered Republicans could rise to more than twice Clinton’s total). There is no indication of an institutionalized hatred among Republicans for Bernie Sanders, whereas GOP hatred for Clinton — justified or not — goes back twenty-five years.
*Sanders is consistently rated by voters as being more “honest and trustworthy” than Secretary Clinton, almost always by double-digit margins, and this is a critical measure of a candidate’s viability.
Clinton’s case to super-delegates can be summed up as follows:
*She is exceedingly well-qualified for the position, though Senator Sanders is also qualified. She has raised substantially more money for individual super-delegates and state Democratic parties than has Senator Sanders, suggesting that she is owed loyalty and electoral fealty by these individuals and Party institutions.
*She would be the first female President, whereas Sanders would only be the first non-Christian, political Independent, or social democrat elected President.
*She will win the popular vote this primary cycle, though much of this popular-vote lead came in non-competitive general-election states (so-called “deep red states”), and in the last primary season super-delegates voted against the popular vote winner — as it turned out, her.
*She is likely (if not certain) to win a majority of pledged delegates, though not enough to clinch the nomination. In blue and battleground states, she will be tied with Sanders in delegates or 1 to 2 percent ahead.
*She’s a neo-liberal rather than a social democrat.
*She’s from a known brand (“Clinton”) in the Democratic Party.
There are likely other arguments for both candidates, but these appear to be the predominant ones.
Few can doubt that, from a practical standpoint, the stronger case at a contested Democratic Convention lies with Sanders — given that the purpose of any Party-sponsored primary race is to find the candidate most likely to win in a general election — but nearly 100 percent of mainstream media pundits predict that not only will Sanders not win a majority of super-delegates, but also that his case to them (above) is unlikely to sway more than fifty of the 714 total super-delegates (7 percent).
If the two competing arguments above look like a 93 percent-to-7 percent Clinton win to you, congratulations — you don’t struggle with cognitive dissonance and the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia this July is likely to make perfect sense to you.
I will also point out that RI, the state that Sanders won last night, was the only state of the 5 to have open primaries, meaning 3rd parties can vote. The others were closed to the 2 party system. This is proof that allowing Independents to vote makes Sanders the winner.
Unfortunately, if Bernie runs as an independent now, Trump might actually win and be the POTUS because of the split vote for the Dems. Disturbing thought and very, very possible. I actually would consider it most likely if Bernie decides to do that.
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
Unfortunately, if Bernie runs as an independent now, Trump might actually win and be the POTUS because of the split vote for the Dems. Disturbing thought and very, very possible. I actually would consider it most likely if Bernie decides to do that.
That's why Trump came out and said that he should run as an independent. But Sanders already said he's not going to do that.
Unfortunately, if Bernie runs as an independent now, Trump might actually win and be the POTUS because of the split vote for the Dems. Disturbing thought and very, very possible. I actually would consider it most likely if Bernie decides to do that.
That's why Trump came out and said that he should run as an independent. But Sanders already said he's not going to do that.
Of course Trump is pushing for that! Yeah, Bernie said that, but it wouldn't have been good for his attempt to win the Dem nom if he'd said he'd run as an independent before, because then everyone would just say "why aren't running as an independent now then??". I think it's possible he could change his tune if he loses or bows out when the math doesn't add up. But yeah, he might stick to his word. He knows as well as Trump does what it would mean to the election... I guess I should have faith that he wouldn't put the country in that position. Holy fuck I wish these stupid primaries would end. I still can't fucking believe how loooooooooong this process is. I think it is incredibly damaging to America.
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
Unfortunately, if Bernie runs as an independent now, Trump might actually win and be the POTUS because of the split vote for the Dems. Disturbing thought and very, very possible. I actually would consider it most likely if Bernie decides to do that.
That's why Trump came out and said that he should run as an independent. But Sanders already said he's not going to do that.
Holy fuck I wish these stupid primaries would end. I still can't fucking believe how loooooooooong this process is. I think it is incredibly damaging to America.
%100 Agree. It really is ridiculous how the Americans run an election. FFS pick ONE AND ONLY ONE day to vote.
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brianlux
Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,072
Sanders is in it 'till the convention. Trying to prove otherwise is useless.
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
I heard Rush agreed with this perspective as well. Ollie North also weighed in and agreed. We're just waiting to hear from G. Gordon Liddie and then the felony convictions will be locked in.
I heard Rush agreed with this perspective as well. Ollie North also weighed in and agreed. We're just waiting to hear from G. Gordon Liddie and then the felony convictions will be locked in.
"Hillary Clinton has accumulated approximately 12 million votes thus far.
She will more than likely have around 20 million voters by the time the primaries have concluded.
Compare this with the 60 million voters Barack Obama had in the 2008 general election and you see that Hillary is not even close to acquiring the votes needed to win the presidency."
"Hillary Clinton has accumulated approximately 12 million votes thus far.
She will more than likely have around 20 million voters by the time the primaries have concluded.
Compare this with the 60 million voters Barack Obama had in the 2008 general election and you see that Hillary is not even close to acquiring the votes needed to win the presidency."
Obama only had 17MM in the 2008 primaries... so how about a little more integrative thinking by the author. Second, by that measure, Bernie would get smoked even worse since he's 3MM behind. Oh and third.. Trump has 10MM, so surpassing Bernie.
Do you even think about these things before you post them?
"Hillary Clinton has accumulated approximately 12 million votes thus far.
She will more than likely have around 20 million voters by the time the primaries have concluded.
Compare this with the 60 million voters Barack Obama had in the 2008 general election and you see that Hillary is not even close to acquiring the votes needed to win the presidency."
Obama only had 17MM in the 2008 primaries... so how about a little more integrative thinking by the author. Second, by that measure, Bernie would get smoked even worse since he's 3MM behind. Oh and third.. Trump has 10MM, so surpassing Bernie.
Do you even think about these things before you post them?
When you post no source, (and I bet you didn't read the whole article), you must get this information out of your head.
"Hillary Clinton has accumulated approximately 12 million votes thus far.
She will more than likely have around 20 million voters by the time the primaries have concluded.
Compare this with the 60 million voters Barack Obama had in the 2008 general election and you see that Hillary is not even close to acquiring the votes needed to win the presidency."
Obama only had 17MM in the 2008 primaries... so how about a little more integrative thinking by the author. Second, by that measure, Bernie would get smoked even worse since he's 3MM behind. Oh and third.. Trump has 10MM, so surpassing Bernie.
Do you even think about these things before you post them?
When you post no source, (and I bet you didn't read the whole article), you must get this information out of your head.
It's easy enough to find vote totals from lots of different sources. I don't need to quote the NYTimes or MSNBC from 2008.
And yes, I read it. It's a super supporter who is also in the grief phase, grasping at straws. His assumption is every 'independent' will go for Sanders if he is in it, or Trump. Well that's just total BS. My wife is an independent just because she isn't registered for a party. But she sure as hell isn't voting for Trump. She always votes D. There are MILLIONS of people who really don't pay attention until the general. They don't vote primaries, which is a fraction of the general election turnout. This was his last stupid assumption... that the fact that Hillary only will receive 20MM votes is somehow indicative of general election turnout.
Comments
He may not be winning but he sure as hell is keeping her from winning the nomination, isn't he.
Just as evangelical republicans are dying out on a National level, so is the old guard in the other party.
AND, it's not over when Clinton does not have the nomination.
He should stay in the race but I want him to stop the attacks and focus on his message.
http://www.vox.com/2016/4/26/11515050/bernie-sanders-admits-its-over
Clinton might not get enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination, so Sanders needs to keep firing! He will not drop out and we will keep supporting him until the very end, when we're electing Donald Trump.
"Hope is not the conviction that things will things will turn out well. Hope is the conviction to do what makes sense no matter how things turn out." -Vaclav Havel
It makes sense to me to keep supporting Bernie. It makes sense for Bernie to stay in the race and he is.
It does not make sense to keep on with business as usual. Hillary is business as usual. I'm not losing any sleep over this business. I'm still confident Bernie can and is making a major impact on exposing how corrupt the system is and how tied Hillary is to that big money corruption.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/a-contested-democratic-convention_b_9672328.html
Holy fuck I wish these stupid primaries would end. I still can't fucking believe how loooooooooong this process is. I think it is incredibly damaging to America.
https://sso.foxnews.com/static/server.html?origin=http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/04/22/judge-napolitano-fbi-has-evidence-indict-and-convict-hillary-clinton-email-scandal
It really is ridiculous how the Americans run an election.
FFS pick ONE AND ONLY ONE day to vote.
And don't forget-- breathe.
#1 - Denial
Do you even think about these things before you post them?
Do you even think about these things before you post them?
When you post no source, (and I bet you didn't read the whole article), you must get this information out of your head.
When you post no source, (and I bet you didn't read the whole article), you must get this information out of your head.
It's easy enough to find vote totals from lots of different sources. I don't need to quote the NYTimes or MSNBC from 2008.
And yes, I read it. It's a super supporter who is also in the grief phase, grasping at straws. His assumption is every 'independent' will go for Sanders if he is in it, or Trump. Well that's just total BS. My wife is an independent just because she isn't registered for a party. But she sure as hell isn't voting for Trump. She always votes D. There are MILLIONS of people who really don't pay attention until the general. They don't vote primaries, which is a fraction of the general election turnout. This was his last stupid assumption... that the fact that Hillary only will receive 20MM votes is somehow indicative of general election turnout.