Hillary won more votes for President

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Comments

  • Cliffy6745Cliffy6745 Posts: 33,840
    Jason P said:

    Free said:

    Jason P said:
    Remember, polls are created to sway voter behavior and for pure drama. This is a pure drama move.
    Still, not a good sign. This is like people giving the Golden State Warriors and the Philly 76ers the same odds to win next year's NBA title.

    Edit:

    More like the Milwaukee Bucks and Philly 76ers ...
    It's not. Silver still has Hillary with around a 71% chance of winning. Polls fluctuate. Aggregate all of them
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Posts: 17,042
    Problem is every 4 years people that don't usually follow statistics and polls, and the such, find time to actually pay attention to them - or be spoon fed dumb sensational articles.

    I'm assuming the recent 538 article regarding the latest Quinnipiac poll has been read/referenced?
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 20,299

    Problem is every 4 years people that don't usually follow statistics and polls, and the such, find time to actually pay attention to them - or be spoon fed dumb sensational articles.

    I'm assuming the recent 538 article regarding the latest Quinnipiac poll has been read/referenced?

    yes....he factors in all polls and their previous accuracy. His formula is a blend of many factors that seem to be extremely accurate.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • FreeFree Posts: 3,562
    Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 20,299
    Free said:

    Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

    Accurate enough for Silver to have correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012.

    Google him...learn something
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • FreeFree Posts: 3,562
    edited July 2016

    Free said:

    Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

    Accurate enough for Silver to have correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012.

    Google him...learn something
    Predict what?? Polls vary every single day, and you're gonna say that they're accurate? of what? someone's opinion, hmmm.

    And, they are most definitely used to sway voters. There is no denying that.

    Post edited by Free on
  • KatKat Posts: 4,872
    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Falling down,...not staying down
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 20,299
    Free said:

    Free said:

    Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

    Accurate enough for Silver to have correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012.

    Google him...learn something
    Predict what?? Polls vary every single day, and you're gonna say that they're accurate? of what? someone's opinion, hmmm.

    And, they are most definitely used to sway voters. There is no denying that.

    Depending on how you look at them yes the polls are accurate. Some polls are consistently wrong....Silver's model accounts for that. I don't understand why this is so hard for you to understand. I'm not going to lay out a dissertation of his model....google it
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • FreeFree Posts: 3,562
    edited July 2016
    These people do nothing but watch the polls like you and I do. We waste our time looking for someone else's analysis when we can easily do it ourselves just look at the polls!

    The thing is though the Polls themselves. They are used to manipulate voter behavior, that is a fact, I have a media marketing degree. don't buy into it, vote your values and not what the media tells you to. See past the bullshit.
    Post edited by Free on
  • FreeFree Posts: 3,562
    Kat said:

    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    All of this is done to create drama. Nothing else.
  • BS44325BS44325 Posts: 6,124
    Kat said:

    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Nate Silver was already wrong on Trump once...

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 20,299
    BS44325 said:

    Kat said:

    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Nate Silver was already wrong on Trump once...

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
    Yeah he ignored his model.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Posts: 17,042

    BS44325 said:

    Kat said:

    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Nate Silver was already wrong on Trump once...

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
    Yeah he ignored his model.
    This is what I love - a guy is wrong once in a while, so then the obvious logic is he'll be wrong every step of the way going forward.

    We live in an insane world.
  • JWPearlJWPearl Posts: 19,893
    Free said:

    Kat said:

    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    All of this is done to create drama. Nothing else.
    And thought so too
  • FreeFree Posts: 3,562
    JWPearl said:

    Free said:

    Kat said:

    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    All of this is done to create drama. Nothing else.
    And thought so too
    All you have to do is be critical about all the information coming at us. Use critical thinking, and don't believe just anything you read.
  • rgambsrgambs Posts: 13,576
    Free said:

    Free said:

    Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

    Accurate enough for Silver to have correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012.

    Google him...learn something
    Predict what?? Polls vary every single day, and you're gonna say that they're accurate? of what? someone's opinion, hmmm.

    And, they are most definitely used to sway voters. There is no denying that.

    Free said:

    Kat said:

    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    All of this is done to create drama. Nothing else.
    So if it's all baloney, and used to create drama, you should be able to predict the results of all 50 states too right?
    Monkey Driven, Call this Living?
  • BS44325BS44325 Posts: 6,124

    BS44325 said:

    Kat said:

    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Nate Silver was already wrong on Trump once...

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
    Yeah he ignored his model.
    This is what I love - a guy is wrong once in a while, so then the obvious logic is he'll be wrong every step of the way going forward.

    We live in an insane world.
    That isn't the logic being presented. The logic is that even Nate Silver is not infallible. By thinking he's infallible you are tempting fate instead.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Forecast has been adjusted and can be adjusted in either direction as the days and months move on. It is early.
  • FreeFree Posts: 3,562
    rgambs said:

    Free said:

    Free said:

    Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

    Accurate enough for Silver to have correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012.

    Google him...learn something
    Predict what?? Polls vary every single day, and you're gonna say that they're accurate? of what? someone's opinion, hmmm.

    And, they are most definitely used to sway voters. There is no denying that.

    Free said:

    Kat said:

    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    All of this is done to create drama. Nothing else.
    So if it's all baloney, and used to create drama, you should be able to predict the results of all 50 states too right?
    If you think that's something worthy of admiration, go for it. Obviously he's not perfect just like our idols aren't either. Try to look beyond the math and who can predict what, and think for yourself and not what the media wants you to think with polls.
  • Dirtie_FrankDirtie_Frank Posts: 1,348
    edited July 2016
    This is a very interesting tell about the emails that were harmless. I know most won't care but to those who work to keep the country safe it is.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=As78kUZueqM
    Post edited by Dirtie_Frank on
    96 Randall's Island II
    98 CAA
    00 Virginia Beach;Camden I; Jones Beach III
    05 Borgata Night I; Wachovia Center
    06 Letterman Show; Webcast (guy in blue shirt), Camden I; DC
    08 Camden I; Camden II; DC
    09 Phillie III
    10 MSG II
    13 Wrigley Field
    16 Phillie II
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Posts: 17,042
    BS44325 said:

    BS44325 said:

    Kat said:

    Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Nate Silver was already wrong on Trump once...

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
    Yeah he ignored his model.
    This is what I love - a guy is wrong once in a while, so then the obvious logic is he'll be wrong every step of the way going forward.

    We live in an insane world.
    That isn't the logic being presented. The logic is that even Nate Silver is not infallible. By thinking he's infallible you are tempting fate instead.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Forecast has been adjusted and can be adjusted in either direction as the days and months move on. It is early.
    Who said he's infallible? He still has the most reasonable, comprehensive forecasts out there.
  • FreeFree Posts: 3,562
    Clinton Endorsement Backfires as Sanders’ Supporters Look to Jill Stein

    http://observer.com/2016/07/clinton-endorsement-backfires-as-sanders-supporters-look-to-jill-stein/

    Yes it is opinion, but boy does it represent a ton of Sanders supporters.

  • PJPOWERPJPOWER Posts: 6,499
    Free said:

    Clinton Endorsement Backfires as Sanders’ Supporters Look to Jill Stein

    http://observer.com/2016/07/clinton-endorsement-backfires-as-sanders-supporters-look-to-jill-stein/

    Yes it is opinion, but boy does it represent a ton of Sanders supporters.

    Yep, my Facebook feed is most definitely filled with Stein support in place of the pervious Bernie support. There is plenty of Hillary resentment in that crowd that feels that their hard work and support was sabotaged by the Democratic Party.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,676
    PJPOWER said:

    Free said:

    Clinton Endorsement Backfires as Sanders’ Supporters Look to Jill Stein

    http://observer.com/2016/07/clinton-endorsement-backfires-as-sanders-supporters-look-to-jill-stein/

    Yes it is opinion, but boy does it represent a ton of Sanders supporters.

    Yep, my Facebook feed is most definitely filled with Stein support in place of the pervious Bernie support. There is plenty of Hillary resentment in that crowd that feels that their hard work and support was sabotaged by the Democratic Party.
    Their hard work is admirable, but it lost out to the mainstream candidate. It's that simple. Just because you lose, doesn't mean you got screwed. It's a terrible mentality to carry around.
  • FreeFree Posts: 3,562
    mrussel1 said:

    PJPOWER said:

    Free said:

    Clinton Endorsement Backfires as Sanders’ Supporters Look to Jill Stein

    http://observer.com/2016/07/clinton-endorsement-backfires-as-sanders-supporters-look-to-jill-stein/

    Yes it is opinion, but boy does it represent a ton of Sanders supporters.

    Yep, my Facebook feed is most definitely filled with Stein support in place of the pervious Bernie support. There is plenty of Hillary resentment in that crowd that feels that their hard work and support was sabotaged by the Democratic Party.
    Their hard work is admirable, but it lost out to the mainstream candidate. It's that simple. Just because you lose, doesn't mean you got screwed. It's a terrible mentality to carry around.
    Hillary blew it with Sanders supporters, she's actually the big loser here due to the sheer number of Bernie supporters she wants and needs desperately.
  • PJPOWERPJPOWER Posts: 6,499
    mrussel1 said:

    PJPOWER said:

    Free said:

    Clinton Endorsement Backfires as Sanders’ Supporters Look to Jill Stein

    http://observer.com/2016/07/clinton-endorsement-backfires-as-sanders-supporters-look-to-jill-stein/

    Yes it is opinion, but boy does it represent a ton of Sanders supporters.

    Yep, my Facebook feed is most definitely filled with Stein support in place of the pervious Bernie support. There is plenty of Hillary resentment in that crowd that feels that their hard work and support was sabotaged by the Democratic Party.
    Their hard work is admirable, but it lost out to the mainstream candidate. It's that simple. Just because you lose, doesn't mean you got screwed. It's a terrible mentality to carry around.
    Yeah, keep preaching that to them, I'm sure they will change their mind and become Hillary lovers. Will you hold true to that statement if Trump wins?
  • what dreamswhat dreams Posts: 1,761
    Free said:

    mrussel1 said:

    PJPOWER said:

    Free said:

    Clinton Endorsement Backfires as Sanders’ Supporters Look to Jill Stein

    http://observer.com/2016/07/clinton-endorsement-backfires-as-sanders-supporters-look-to-jill-stein/

    Yes it is opinion, but boy does it represent a ton of Sanders supporters.

    Yep, my Facebook feed is most definitely filled with Stein support in place of the pervious Bernie support. There is plenty of Hillary resentment in that crowd that feels that their hard work and support was sabotaged by the Democratic Party.
    Their hard work is admirable, but it lost out to the mainstream candidate. It's that simple. Just because you lose, doesn't mean you got screwed. It's a terrible mentality to carry around.
    Hillary blew it with Sanders supporters, she's actually the big loser here due to the sheer number of Bernie supporters she wants and needs desperately.
    Who cares. Many of these supporters would have voted third party anyway if Sanders hadn't co-opted the Democratic party just to get media attention. If he hadn't run as a Democrat, a vast majority of his supporters wouldn't even know who or what he is, and now the active ones who were far left and would have voted Stein anyway will just go back home. The rest will either lose interest or vote for Hillary.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 20,299
    It's still going to come down to Clinton v Trump. If Sanders' supporters are so butt hurt that they won't vote for Clinton to help her defeat Trump then I kind of hope he wins to teach them a lesson.

    There is only one enemy here....that's the racist right wing republican party of which there is only one candidate.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,676
    edited July 2016
    PJPOWER said:

    mrussel1 said:

    PJPOWER said:

    Free said:

    Clinton Endorsement Backfires as Sanders’ Supporters Look to Jill Stein

    http://observer.com/2016/07/clinton-endorsement-backfires-as-sanders-supporters-look-to-jill-stein/

    Yes it is opinion, but boy does it represent a ton of Sanders supporters.

    Yep, my Facebook feed is most definitely filled with Stein support in place of the pervious Bernie support. There is plenty of Hillary resentment in that crowd that feels that their hard work and support was sabotaged by the Democratic Party.
    Their hard work is admirable, but it lost out to the mainstream candidate. It's that simple. Just because you lose, doesn't mean you got screwed. It's a terrible mentality to carry around.
    Yeah, keep preaching that to them, I'm sure they will change their mind and become Hillary lovers. Will you hold true to that statement if Trump wins?
    It's not my objective or role to convince our resident Sander's supporters. But I also don't like victim mentalities too, which seems to be prevalent in this crowd.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,676
    Free said:

    mrussel1 said:

    PJPOWER said:

    Free said:

    Clinton Endorsement Backfires as Sanders’ Supporters Look to Jill Stein

    http://observer.com/2016/07/clinton-endorsement-backfires-as-sanders-supporters-look-to-jill-stein/

    Yes it is opinion, but boy does it represent a ton of Sanders supporters.

    Yep, my Facebook feed is most definitely filled with Stein support in place of the pervious Bernie support. There is plenty of Hillary resentment in that crowd that feels that their hard work and support was sabotaged by the Democratic Party.
    Their hard work is admirable, but it lost out to the mainstream candidate. It's that simple. Just because you lose, doesn't mean you got screwed. It's a terrible mentality to carry around.
    Hillary blew it with Sanders supporters, she's actually the big loser here due to the sheer number of Bernie supporters she wants and needs desperately.
    What did HRC do that blew it? She moved on minimum wage, education and TPP. Sounds like she adjusted her platform to accommodate.
This discussion has been closed.