***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2013 Thread***

The Juggler

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

It's been a while........hello.

I just got back from a bike ride in the city...and this is what it feels like...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pr216HObUIA

well played.

Jearlpam0925

Seriously....now I gotta walk down to CVS and pick up another TUB of Gold Bond.

If it tickles anyone's fancy, James Murphy (LCD Soundsystem) is DJing at Morgan's Pier tonight. Gonna be a helluva time.

The Fixer

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

Seriously....now I gotta walk down to CVS and pick up another TUB of Gold Bond.

If it tickles anyone's fancy, James Murphy (LCD Soundsystem) is DJing at Morgan's Pier tonight. Gonna be a helluva time.

Yeah, this weather is the absolute worst. How many days til fall?

dude, I just got a drunken phone call from a buddy who went (he was calling to defend himself about a text thread going around mocking his wedding pics). Wish I knew about it...he said it was mobbed down there.

Last time I was at that spot it was a thursday night when place was rock lobster. ran into donald brashear and todd fedoruk

Low Cut Connie playing the Underground Arts on 8/3. Never heard of the venue, but I'm looking forward to checking them out.

Also, the phillies suck balls. Fire and trade them all except for hamels

eeriepadave

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

If it tickles anyone's fancy, James Murphy (LCD Soundsystem) is DJing at Morgan's Pier tonight. Gonna be a helluva time.

Crap I forgot that was last night. :x How was it?

So much for the sweep. Hopefully win today and take the series.

Howard to the DL.

eeriepadave

eeriepadave wrote:

a sweep of the braves would be awesome! (i'll settle for 2 out of 3 though).

i'll take it

The Juggler

The Juggler wrote:

and then of course they take 2 out of the 3 against the bucos. :? what a weird team.

america. fuck yeah!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhnUgAaea4M#at=63

ah the joys of rooting for a mediocre baseball team. of course they then take 2 out of 3 from the bravos. watch them split with the nats before getting swept by the white sox heading into the break. buncha weirdos.

seriously though, congrats to all star, dominic brown. just as a baseball fan in general, it's been fun watching him develop into what we hoped he could be. thank god the phillies didn't give up on him. his homer yesterday was a thing of beauty. guy makes a great pitch low and inside and he has the bat speed and strength to turn on it without getting his arms full extended and it still goes over the fence. he's come such a long way. gives you a little hope for the future (though i just read his agent is scott boras. hopefully he dumps him). and ben revere deserves some props around here. dude's been playing well since after the first month of the season.

god speed.

Jearlpam0925

James Murphy DJing a decent time.

It was hotter than a motha down at the ballpark yesterday. This time it was me coming out of Will Farrell's womb - that kinda sweaty, hot.

On a semi-related note - I picked up Gold Bond's new powder spray. The future is here today.

And with these dates announced hopefully this place picks up around here. Can't friggin' wait.

The Fixer

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

James Murphy DJing a decent time.

It was hotter than a motha down at the ballpark yesterday. This time it was me coming out of Will Farrell's womb - that kinda sweaty, hot.

On a semi-related note - I picked up Gold Bond's new powder spray. The future is here today.

And with these dates announced hopefully this place picks up around here. Can't friggin' wait.

I'd rather have freezing rain and sub zero temps than deal with this heat and humidity. The worst.

Love the new 10 club ticket policy. Should make it easier for everyone. Looking forward to October...sucks we don't have to worry about the WS being here this time around.

Johnny Abruzzo

The Fixer wrote:

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

James Murphy DJing a decent time.

It was hotter than a motha down at the ballpark yesterday. This time it was me coming out of Will Farrell's womb - that kinda sweaty, hot.

On a semi-related note - I picked up Gold Bond's new powder spray. The future is here today.

And with these dates announced hopefully this place picks up around here. Can't friggin' wait.

I'd rather have freezing rain and sub zero temps than deal with this heat and humidity. The worst.

Love the new 10 club ticket policy. Should make it easier for everyone. Looking forward to October...sucks we don't have to worry about the WS being here this time around.

Well at least we don't have to worry about buying playoff tixx and PJ tixx.

Convinced Signora Abruzzo to go to Baltimore show too.

Jearlpam0925

Word. I put in for Philly and Brooklyn. I'll be getting Charm City tix closer to showtime.

Good stuff. Here's to hoping this new single doesn't suck as much as Ole'; and that the album finds a sound that's better than Avocado or Backspacer. I know this is messed up to say, but these dudes are way more on their game when there's some kind of tragedy. Let's go tragedies. I know, I regretted that statement as soon as I made it.

The Juggler

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

Word. I put in for Philly and Brooklyn. I'll be getting Charm City tix closer to showtime.

Good stuff. Here's to hoping this new single doesn't suck as much as Ole'; and that the album finds a sound that's better than Avocado or Backspacer. I know this is messed up to say, but these dudes are way more on their game when there's some kind of tragedy. Let's go tragedies. I know, I regretted that statement as soon as I made it.

well....riot act came out shortly after a tragedy.

the problem this band has is they sacrifised quality, creative, and epic albums for longevity. that's why they spend so much time on solo and side project stuff. been 4 years since the last one...but it's not like they've been in the trenches working on the new one that whole time. that's what has me worried. and the fact that this single supposedly has a punk/stbc vibe to it, makes me think ed's gonna have a hell of a hard time with it live...like he has with all the other songs of similiar ilk. ilk. here's to hoping for the best though.

birds/cowboys at the linc on the 20th. not quite "greatest week ever" shit...but that still has the makings of a good time.

i'll probably hit up brooklyn on saturday and i guess both the philly shows. bmore or pitt may be an option too.

Jearlpam0925

At least Riot Act had teeth.

And that's my point - they spend so much time between albums without putting even close to the amount of time into the albums that the should, at least for the last two. I just want different. Totally and completely different; that's what first 5 or 6 albums were - for the most part different from one another. Even if they sound like Daft Punk meets Woody Guthrie. Just gimme different.

The Juggler

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

At least Riot Act had teeth.

And that's my point - they spend so much time between albums without putting even close to the amount of time into the albums that the should, at least for the last two. I just want different. Totally and completely different; that's what first 5 or 6 albums were - for the most part different from one another. Even if they sound like Daft Punk meets Woody Guthrie. Just gimme different.

i would take daft punk meets woody guthrie in a second.

just going off of what some people are claiming to have heard, and what mke and stone have said in interviews, it sounds like they're sticking to their familiar formula. hope i'm wrong. i want some weird experimental album that's way longer than anything else they've put out. don't see that happening.

but sirens is black 2.0!

jamminpearls

The Juggler wrote:

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

At least Riot Act had teeth.

And that's my point - they spend so much time between albums without putting even close to the amount of time into the albums that the should, at least for the last two. I just want different. Totally and completely different; that's what first 5 or 6 albums were - for the most part different from one another. Even if they sound like Daft Punk meets Woody Guthrie. Just gimme different.

i would take daft punk meets woody guthrie in a second.

just going off of what some people are the claiming to have heard, and what mke and stone have said in interviews, it sounds like they're sticking to their familiar formula. hope i'm wrong. i want some weird experimental album that's way longer than anything else they've put out. don't see that happening.

but sirens is black 2.0!

After Backspacer all they can go is up. From what the video gives us I like this record better BS already. With a wife who will be 8 months prego i'm really hoping for reserved seating.

The Juggler

wait...what video?

Ledbetterman10

The Juggler wrote:

wait...what video?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... K1njeQdAVk

The music at the end is assumed to be Mind Your Manners

The Fixer

I'm hoping to hit the brooklyn, philly, and bmore shows. .

Agree with the other opinions...hoping for an improvement on this album (ie, no more slow songs like just breathe or the end...that crap is better left for uke albums).

The Fixer

Those who defended and continue to defend this guy have to feel pretty dumb these days. Like I said at the time of the extension, that was the beginning of the end for this era. Was fun while it lasted...now, not so much. Get off your ass and start moving parts Rube, ya turd.



It may surprise no one that the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies are not where they hoped to be in the win-loss column. After a disappointing 81-81 record in 2012, the worst finish for the Phillies in a decade, the hope was that even a past-prime dynasty could retool enough to squeeze another few solid years on the backs of an aging core. The team's TV contract with Comcast expires after the 2015 season, so the front office had an obvious incentive to keep the team together in the hope of cash practically falling out of the sky, as the Los Angeles Dodgers have experienced with their new TV contract.

Alas, it was not meant to be. The Phillies have continued their downward trajectory, and though they're only a few games behind the Washington Nationals, that's mainly because Washington has underperformed expectations, not due to any second wind similar to the one the Boston Red Sox are experiencing this season.

In the middle of a second frustrating season, it's not surprising to see fingers being pointed. Most notable among them has been team general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. calling out Ryan Howard's performance, telling 94 WIP in Philadelphia in a pregame show last week that "if Howard is now relegated to being a platoon player, he's a very expensive platoon player and needs to do better … right now, he's just not doing his job."

Given Howard's .266/.319/.465 line this year with typically mediocre defense, it would take some special delusion to think that he's been doing his job. But how much blame can we really put on Howard? How much was Howard really underperforming reasonable expectations before the recent news that he'll miss six to eight weeks with a meniscus tear?

To get a feel for this, I went back and asked the ZiPS projection system to project Howard's 2013 season from the point his five-year, $125 million contract was signed in April 2010 and before each successive season, with knowledge included of the large drop off in run scoring across both leagues (Howard can hardly be faulted for that).

Cheer up, Alex. Your crazy contract isn't as bad as Ryan Howard's.
Despite coming off a solid offensive season in 2009 (.279/.360/.571, OPS+ of 141), ZiPS was not optimistic at the time. ZiPS doesn't project a lumbering slugger the same way it projects a speedy middle infielder, using large groups of similar-type players in history to make an estimate. Howard's top comps are not a pretty group -- Carlos Pena, Richie Sexson, Greg Luzinski, Jim Gentile, Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder were the top six on the list -- and these are all players who aged poorly. The Howard deal started for his age-32 season and none of those six sluggers had a 3 WAR season at any point at age 32 or later.

The top six comps being flops in their 30s was no fluke, either. If you look at the top 15 comps, only Jim Thome was a star in his 30s. Otherwise, it's an encyclopedia of short-career sluggers, from Rudy York to Dick Stuart to Greg Vaughn.

In a 2013 Philadelphia environment, ZiPS projected Howard's 2013 season at .243/.333/.487 when his deal was signed, a little less batting average and a little more power than his current line, but not a dramatic difference and certainly not super-stardom. Before the 2011 season, the 2013 projection had dropped to .241/.325/.472; fast-forward another year and his 2013 projection was .246/.328/.476; and before this season, he was projected to hit .242/.325/.463.

In other words, Howard's 2013 performance is not a nasty surprise, but exactly what you would expect from a one-dimensional slugger in his early 30s in the middle of a normal decline phase for a player of his type.

At this point, ZiPS projects the contract to be essentially a total loss for the Phillies, with Howard only projected at 5.0 total WAR over the course of the contract (and assuming the $10 million buyout is taken for the final year). That's equivalent to a $94 million loss, a worse projected return than even the A-Rod contract, a deal that the Yankees find daily reason to regret, which ZiPS projects as an $88 million loss. (For the record: ZiPS still holds out some hope for Albert Pujols, projecting his contract as only a $90 million loss.)

If the Phillies are going to do in 2014 what the Red Sox have done in 2013 and have their own renaissance, it's going to require a drastic change in organizational thinking -- and it's going to require plenty of cash. If such a change is to happen, moving on from the executive who got the Phillies into this position -- and continues to not show an understanding of either the position the Phillies are in or how they arrived there -- is a good place to start. If the Howard injury doesn't give the Phillies a ready-made PR excuse to start selling, something's rotten in the city of Philadelphia.

The Juggler

Ledbetterman10 wrote:

The Juggler wrote:

wait...what video?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... K1njeQdAVk

The music at the end is assumed to be Mind Your Manners

nice...yeah i figured this out right after i posed that. haha....sounds interesting. i can't wait till thursday.

The Juggler

DOM