saints last night to cap off my best weekend of the year. I'm on the Texans tonight...I think they win outright
yeah i laid off but i'm kicking myself for not taking the saints.
i like the colts tonight at home. revenge game. and peyton manning in prime time is always money....though i may tease it. good luck to you. maybe we'll both win again
one of my buddy's has a rule that he will never, under any circumstances bet against the forehead in a prime time game. My system likes the texans, so that's what I'm playing. I'm hoping the line gets up to 6 by game time.
you're crazy with those teasers. just straight bets for this guy...50/50 chance. good luck with whatever you go with...hopefully it will be another SD/Tenn type outcome for us.
I have been pretty terrible on monday night this year
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
saints last night to cap off my best weekend of the year. I'm on the Texans tonight...I think they win outright
yeah i laid off but i'm kicking myself for not taking the saints.
i like the colts tonight at home. revenge game. and peyton manning in prime time is always money....though i may tease it. good luck to you. maybe we'll both win again
one of my buddy's has a rule that he will never, under any circumstances bet against the forehead in a prime time game. My system likes the texans, so that's what I'm playing. I'm hoping the line gets up to 6 by game time.
you're crazy with those teasers. just straight bets for this guy...50/50 chance. good luck with whatever you go with...hopefully it will be another SD/Tenn type outcome for us.
I have been pretty terrible on monday night this year
i get a lot of shit from my friends with the teasers. they've worked well for me over the years though.
a lot of people have that same rule about peyton.
by the way...not that i think we're going to win--but the birds could not be playing the colts at a better time next week. interested to see what that line looks like. wish i didn't sell that game :evil:
by the way...not that i think we're going to win--but the birds could not be playing the colts at a better time next week. interested to see what that line looks like. wish i didn't sell that game :evil:
I hear you, but it's not gonna matter. The Forehead might throw for 900 yards on the eagles shitty secondary. Indy will be laying 3-4...and they will be a lock.
The back door is cracked open...come on texans, give me some love
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
hopefully you didn't have too much on houston. i don't recommend ever betting against peyton in prime time. your friend is spot on with that.
hopefully you're still in cover city though. undefeated week for your jeagler----2-0 :thumbup:
hopefully you didn't have too much on houston. i don't recommend ever betting against peyton in prime time. your friend is spot on with that.
hopefully you're still in cover city though. undefeated week for your jeagler----2-0 :thumbup:
nah, didn't go too large. used all of my heavy artillery on saturday and sunday. my bookie is gonna need a Brinks truck to deliver my winnings to me on saturday.
I should just give up on monday night games. I am like 2-6 this year on mondays
grab the points and take GT tonight. Tomorrow night I am on Central Michigan and the C Fla/Houston Under.
Great week last week...can't wait for saturday
UCLA
Wisconsin/Purdue UNDER
TCU/Utah OVER
Boise (I think they win by 45...bet this one big)
Northwestern
Fresno St
Michigan
Clemson/NC St OVER
Tennessee/Memphis UNDER
Mississippi
I also lean with Scar, miami, and indiana
Good Luck
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
looks like a good call with ga tech so far.
i'm pretty psyched cuz i am switching bookies this weekend...hopefully. my long time book used a website which was super convenient. had the option to call or text it in if need be too. that guy is out of biz. new guy only accepts phone calls. no texts. what is this, 1997? you don't even know exactly what the line is till you call--and then his number is always, conveniently, slightly different than covers.com or sportsbook etc etc. ........guy at work uses the same site my old guy used to use. hopefully jumping on board that by sunday.
i'm pretty psyched cuz i am switching bookies this weekend...hopefully. my long time book used a website which was super convenient. had the option to call or text it in if need be too. that guy is out of biz. new guy only accepts phone calls. no texts. what is this, 1997? you don't even know exactly what the line is till you call--and then his number is always, conveniently, slightly different than covers.com or sportsbook etc etc. ........guy at work uses the same site my old guy used to use. hopefully jumping on board that by sunday.
GT with another easy win. I AM ON FIREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Yeah, no texts is terrible. Prior to this year, that's how I would send all my bets in. That way I always had a record of my plays so there was never a discrepancy (I bet a lot of games, so it gets confusing). My guy went to the website this year...I hated it at first, but I have learned to love it. It makes everything so much easier.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
i'm pretty psyched cuz i am switching bookies this weekend...hopefully. my long time book used a website which was super convenient. had the option to call or text it in if need be too. that guy is out of biz. new guy only accepts phone calls. no texts. what is this, 1997? you don't even know exactly what the line is till you call--and then his number is always, conveniently, slightly different than covers.com or sportsbook etc etc. ........guy at work uses the same site my old guy used to use. hopefully jumping on board that by sunday.
GT with another easy win. I AM ON FIREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Yeah, no texts is terrible. Prior to this year, that's how I would send all my bets in. That way I always had a record of my plays so there was never a discrepancy (I bet a lot of games, so it gets confusing). My guy went to the website this year...I hated it at first, but I have learned to love it. It makes everything so much easier.
what site do you use? beteagle.com was my once and future home
i'm pretty psyched cuz i am switching bookies this weekend...hopefully. my long time book used a website which was super convenient. had the option to call or text it in if need be too. that guy is out of biz. new guy only accepts phone calls. no texts. what is this, 1997? you don't even know exactly what the line is till you call--and then his number is always, conveniently, slightly different than covers.com or sportsbook etc etc. ........guy at work uses the same site my old guy used to use. hopefully jumping on board that by sunday.
GT with another easy win. I AM ON FIREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Yeah, no texts is terrible. Prior to this year, that's how I would send all my bets in. That way I always had a record of my plays so there was never a discrepancy (I bet a lot of games, so it gets confusing). My guy went to the website this year...I hated it at first, but I have learned to love it. It makes everything so much easier.
what site do you use? beteagle.com was my once and future home
crsportsbetting.com
it is pretty money. he gives out an account number and that's pretty much it. only time I ever talk to him is when we set a time to meet up.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
GT with another easy win. I AM ON FIREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Yeah, no texts is terrible. Prior to this year, that's how I would send all my bets in. That way I always had a record of my plays so there was never a discrepancy (I bet a lot of games, so it gets confusing). My guy went to the website this year...I hated it at first, but I have learned to love it. It makes everything so much easier.
what site do you use? beteagle.com was my once and future home
crsportsbetting.com
it is pretty money. he gives out an account number and that's pretty much it. only time I ever talk to him is when we set a time to meet up.
yeah that is how beteagle is. you can call in bets in through their costa rico number too if you need to. this new guy....never met him in person...never quite meshed with him on the phone....had to explain to him how a parlay pays out back in week 1. not good....looking forward to meeting him for the first time next week and him handing over a wad of cash to me though
yeah that is how beteagle is. you can call in bets in through their costa rico number too if you need to. this new guy....never met him in person...never quite meshed with him on the phone....had to explain to him how a parlay pays out back in week 1. not good....looking forward to meeting him for the first time next week and him handing over a wad of cash to me though
just introduce yourself like this...'hey man, nice to meet you. I'm the jeagler, and I'm the one you're gonna be paying every week. thanks, talk to you next week.'
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
yeah that is how beteagle is. you can call in bets in through their costa rico number too if you need to. this new guy....never met him in person...never quite meshed with him on the phone....had to explain to him how a parlay pays out back in week 1. not good....looking forward to meeting him for the first time next week and him handing over a wad of cash to me though
just introduce yourself like this...'hey man, nice to meet you. I'm the jeagler, and I'm the one you're gonna be paying every week. thanks, talk to you next week.'
ha...no i mean i am meeting the guy i've been betting through this season for the first and last time in person next week.
ollege Football Best Bet Sides
3 Star Selection
OKLAHOMA ST. (-7.5) 45 Baylor 28
06-Nov-10 09:30 AM Pacific Time
I've been on Oklahoma State since day 1 this season and I'm 5-1 when I've used them as either a Best Bet or Strong Opinion. I'm on the Cowboys again this week in a combination of line value and a very strong situation. I like Baylor's team and the Bears actually have a better offense (7.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) than Oklahoma State does (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl). However, Baylor is a bad defensive team, allowing 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl against an average defensive unit. Baylor has only faced 3 better than average offensive teams and the Bears allowed 45 points to TCU, 45 points to Texas Tech, and 42 points to Kansas State. That does not bode well for them here and I expect the Cowboys to hit their average of 45 points per game.
While Baylor won't be able to stop Oklahoma State's offense, the Cowboys have a good defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) that can at least slow down the Bears' potent attack enough to win this game by double-digits. Oklahoma State did give up 7.1 yppl and 51 points to Nebraska's great offense, but that was actually a decent effort since Nebraska would average 7.1 yppl on the road against an average defensive team. Baylor's median offensive output is 30.5 points in 8 Division 1A games and Oklahoma State's defense is better than average and I think the Bears are likely to be held to under 30 points in this game.
In addition to being better overall from the line of scrimmage, Oklahoma State also has significantly better special teams and my math model gives the Cowboys a solid 55% chance of covering at -7 ½ points (based on the historical performance of my model). The chances of Oklahoma State covering are greatly enhanced by two very strong situations that apply to this game. The Bears apply to a negative 23-78-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week's upset win at Texas and Oklahoma State applies to a very strong 79-18-3 ATS home momentum situation. Those two angles are completely independent of one another, as they've only intersected one time (an easy spread win by the home team), so Oklahoma State's chance of covering is over 60% with the situations and math combined. I'll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 points.
3 Star Selection
Boston College (-3.0) 26 WAKE FOREST 14
06-Nov-10 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Boston College has struggled offensively all season, but the Eagles can play defense and they are actually a pretty good team. BC has actually played even from the line of scrimmage against a tough schedule of Division 1A opponents (4.5 points better than average), averaging 283 yards at 4.5 yards per play while allowing just 299 yards at 4.4 yppl. The Eagles are slightly improved offensively with Chase Rettig at quarterback, but their attack is still 0.5 yards per play worse than average. Boston College hasn't had the luxury of facing a worse than average defensive team since they scored 38 points against Weber State in their opener. Today they get another shot at a bad defense, as Wake Forest has allowed 472 yards per game and 6.4 yppl in 7 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. As you can see, the Boston College offense and the Wake Forest defense are equally bad.
BC's advantage in this game is their great defense (4.4 yppl allowed to 1A teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) going up against a sub-par Wake Forest attack that is 0.7 yppl worse than average for the season overall and 0.4 yppl worse than average with Tanner Price at quarterback. Boston College is also significantly better in special teams and my math model projects a 353 yards at 5.3 yppl to 246 yards at 3.9 yppl advantage for the Eagles in this game, which should be enough to get their second consecutive win (they beat Clemson last week). Wake Forest, meanwhile, has lost 6 consecutive games since starting the season with wins over bad teams Presbyterian and Duke. What we have here is two equally poor offensive teams (BC -0.5 yppl and WF -0.4 yppl) with one team having one of the best defensive units in the country (BC 1.2 yppl better than average) while the other team is bad defensively (WF 0.5 yppl worse than average). My math model gives BC a 59% chance of covering at -3 points and the Eagles apply to a 56-17-2 ATS late season road favorite situation. I'll take Boston College in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points.
2 Star Selection
UAB (-10.0) 34 Marshall 17
06-Nov-10 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Marshall has covered the spread only twice all season and they were lucky to cover last week (needed a 2 point defensive conversion against UTEP to cover by 1 point). I have no problem going against the Thundering Herd again this week, especially on the road where this year's team is continuing a long tradition of poor play away from home. Marshall is 0-4 ATS on the road this season and 20-42-1 ATS as a visitor since 2000. The Thundering Herd also aren't nearly as good as UAB. Marshall's offense has averaged just 4.8 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and their rating would be 0.2 yppl worse without a 96 yard TD pass against West Virginia. UAB is bad defensively, allowing 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but the Blazers' stop unit actually has a 0.2 yppl advantage over Marshall's offense.
The bigger advantage for UAB is their good attack (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) going up against a poor Marshall defense that's 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). UAB also is likely to run considerably more plays than Marshall given the Herd's -10.7 play differential per game and UAB's +5.6 play differential. My math model projects 478 yards at 6.5 yppl for UAB and just 317 yards at 5.2 yppl for Marshall in this game and the Blazers have slight edges in projected turnovers and special teams to go along with the home field edge. My math model gives UAB a solid 56% chance of covering at -9 ½ points (based on the historical performance of my math model) and the Blazers apply to a 42-7 ATS home favorite momentum situation that is based on last week's upset win as a double-digit dog at Southern Miss. I'll take UAB in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
3 Star Selection
LOUISIANA TECH (pick) 37 Fresno St. 27
06-Nov-10 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Louisiana Tech is an underrated team that struggled early in the season without their starting quarterback. Ross Jenkins completed 15 of 19 passes in the opening game against Grambling State before getting hurt and he missed the Bulldogs' first 3 games against Division 1A competition - losses to Texas A&M, Navy, and Southern Miss by an average margin of 16 points. Jenkins returned in week 5, coming off the bench against Hawaii and he's started the last 3 games while improving the Louisiana Tech offense. For the season Louisiana Tech has been 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.2 yards per play against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Jenkins and his 68% completion percentage is a huge upgrade over the other 2 quarterbacks, who completed 59% of their passes. Jenkins has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and he was able to move the ball pretty well against a very good Boise State defense last week (394 total yards and 20 points). The other Louisiana Tech quarterbacks averaged just 4.8 yppp against 1A opponents that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB, so you can see how much better Jenkins has been. Louisiana Tech's offense has averaged 5.9 yards per play with Jenkins in the game against Division 1A opposition that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team. That attack should have no trouble moving the ball against a Fresno State defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl this season to 1A teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Jenkins will have success with his short, accurate passes while the Louisiana Tech rushing attack (4.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) will feast on a horrible Fresno defensive front that's allowed 6.2 yprp to teams that would combine to average just 4.4 yprp against an average team). Louisiana Tech's offense has a huge 1.2 yppl advantage in this game and should move the ball with ease.
Fresno State will also be able to move the ball, but their average attack (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) has only a 0.8 yppl advantage over Louisiana Tech's leaky defense (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Louisiana Tech not only has a 0.4 yppl advantage from the line of scrimmage but the Bulldogs have an edge in projected turnovers that offsets Fresno's advantage in special teams. Louisiana Tech has averaged -1.3 in turnover margin in their 7 games against Division 1A opponents, but that was because their two backup quarterbacks threw 9 interceptions in 3 games when Jenkins was out. Jenkins has only thrown 2 picks on 161 pass attempts this season and he's thrown just 10 interceptions in 650 career pass attempts for a very low 1.5% interception rate. With Louisiana Tech able to move the ball consistently without turnovers they should be able to win this game at home, where they are 12-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. My math model gives Louisiana Tech a 61% chance of covering in this game and I'll take Louisiana Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars from -1 ½ to -3 points.
3 Star Selection
TEXAS A&M (+3.0) 34 Oklahoma 26
06-Nov-10 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Oklahoma has proven that they can overwhelm bad teams like Iowa State and Colorado, but the Sooners are not good enough to out-play good teams and Texas A&M is an underrated good team. In 7 games against Division 1A opposition the Aggies have averaged 483 yards at 5.8 yppl while allowing 358 yards at just 4.8 yppl. A&M is a deceiving 4-3 straight up in those games because of a -6 in turnover margin, which is not something that is likely to continue. In fact, the Aggies have committed just 3 total turnovers in their last 3 games (all 3 last week and they still won easily for us). A&M is even less likely to beat themselves with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, as Tannehill has completed 73% of his 70 passes while throwing just 1 interception while former starter Jerrod Johnson was completing just 56.6% of his passes with a 3.2% interception rate. Tannehill has faced easier competition but his compensated numbers are still much better than Johnson's even after accounting for the possibility of variance. Texas A&M is 0.4 yppl better than average offensively for the season and I rate the Aggies' attack at 0.7 yppl better than average with Tannehill pulling the trigger. Oklahoma's defense, meanwhile, has given up 5.3 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yppl against an average team. I decided to throw out the Sooners' horrible defensive numbers from their opening game against Utah State (allowing a sub-par quarterback 8.0 yards per pass play) and doing so makes the Sooners 0.4 yppl better than average defensively, which is still 0.3 yppl worse than the A&M offense.
Oklahoma's offense is also at a disadvantage in this game, as the Sooners have averaged a modest 5.7 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while the Texas A&M defense is 0.7 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit). Texas A&M is better on both sides of the ball I don't expect turnovers to be an issue for them as they were early in the season (which is why they are underrated). Oklahoma, meanwhile, continues to be overrated and the Sooners have played just one good game all season against a good team (a big win over Florida State). The Sooners were out-played by Utah State (5.4 yppl to 5.6 yppl), by Air Force (4.9 yppl to 6.1 yppl), by Cincinnati (5.0 yppl to 6.6 yppl), by Texas (4.3 yppl to 5.9 yppl) and by Missouri (5.4 yppl to 6.0 yppl) and were lucky to win 4 of those games because of a +8 in turnover margin in the 4 close wins. Without the positive variance in turnovers in those 4 close wins the Sooners probably would have an extra two losses and be 5-3 right now - which is actually what their stats suggest that they should be. A&M hasn't fared well either against good teams, losing straight up to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri, but the Aggies out-gained those teams 418 yards to 404 yards and were 0.9 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage after compensating for how good those teams are (they were out-played by 0.8 yppl but Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri - teams would out-gain an average team by 1.7 yppl). Texas A&M will be without leading rusher Christine Michael, but Michael's average of 5.0 ypr should be replaced more than adequately by former starter Cyrus Gray, who is averaging 5.3 ypr this season on 78 carries and has averaged 4.94 ypr the last two seasons (1171 yards on 237 rushes), which is barely any different than the 5.05 ypr that Michael has rushed for since last season (1475 yards on 292 rushes).
My math model projects Texas A&M with a 462 yards to 411 yards edge in this game even with the Sooners expected to run 4 more plays than the Aggies. Oklahoma does have an edge in special teams, but my model favors Texas A&M to win straight up and the Aggies apply to a 65-15-2 ATS home momentum situation while Oklahoma applies to a negative 26-74-1 ATS situation. I'll take Texas A&M in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2-Stars at pick or -1.
College Football Strong Opinions
MICHIGAN ST. (-24.0) 43 Minnesota 14
06-Nov-10 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Normally teams that lose their first game of the season after a 5-0 start or better tend to letdown the next week when facing a losing team. However, the Spartans also apply to some very good big home favorite bounce-back situations that are based on the large margin that they lost to Iowa by (6-37). That was a bad loss, but Michigan State is still a very good team that has out-gained a better than average schedule of teams by an average of 6.6 yards per play to 5.0 yppl. The offense should flourish in this game against a horrible Minnesota defense that's given up 7.0 yppl (to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and is down a couple of key starters this week with DT Brandon Kirksey suspended for a game and CB Michael Carter suspended for the rest of the season for academic reasons. Minnesota's offense is decent (just 0.1 yppl worse than average), but the Spartans are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) and should hold the Gophers' attack in check. Michigan State hasn't been as efficient with their yards as they should be (i.e. they should have a bigger scoring margin than they do), so there is some value in favor of the Spartans here. In fact, my math model gives Michigan State a 57.9% chance of covering at -24 points (based on the historical performance of my model). I'm still a bit concerned about a possible letdown even though there are other angles that favor MSU, so I'll resist making this game a Best Bet.I'll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.
Iowa (-17.0) 35 INDIANA 13
06-Nov-10 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Iowa has held 5 of their 8 opponents to 7 points or fewer with the only teams to score more than 7 points being good offensive teams Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Indiana has averaged 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, so the Hoosiers fall into the category of below average offensive team and that probably spells trouble for them against Iowa's great defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team). Indiana has only faced two better than average defensive teams this season and the Hoosiers were held to 10 points by Ohio State and to 13 points by Illinois - so I don't expect them to score more than that against Iowa today. Iowa is averaging 6.4 yppl and 33.7 points against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team and Indiana allowed 38 points or more to the only two better than average offensive teams that they faced - 42 to Michigan and 38 to Ohio State. Asking Iowa to win by more than 17 points isn't asking too much and my math model gives the Hawkeyes a profitable 55% chance of covering at -17 points. I'll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at -17 or less.
UTAH (+4.5) 24 TCU 23
06-Nov-10 12:30 PM Pacific Time
When two unbeaten teams, both at least 6-0, get together the home underdog/pick is now 9-1 straight up (and 9-1 ATS) with Missouri beating Oklahoma adding to that a few weeks ago. Utah also applies to a 64-23-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 76-28-3 ATS statistical profile indicator while Utah applies to a negative 9-43 ATS unbeaten road team angle. The technical analysis is pretty strongly in favor of the Utes here and my math model favors TCU by 4 points - so the line is fair. TCU's defense has been dominating bad offensive teams lately and that unit is 1.2 yards per play better than average for the season (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Horned Frogs have been just as good against the 4 good offensive teams that they've faced, allowing a combined 5.2 yppl to Oregon State, Baylor, SMU, and Air Force - teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Utah's offense is 1.2 yppl better than average (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 to an average attack) and the Utes have had mixed results against the two better than average defensive teams that they've faced - averaging 6.4 yppl against a very good Pitt defense and just 4.4 yppl last week against Air Force. Utah's defense is 0.5 yppl better than average, allowing 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense and that unit shut down a good Pitt offense (4.2 yppl) while struggling last week against the Air Force option, which probably doesn't apply since a lot of good defensive teams can struggle against an option offense that they're not used to seeing. TCU's offense has been 1.4 yppl better than average so far this season (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl), but that attack was slowed by a better than average SMU defense (5.3 yppl in that game) and by a better than average BYU defense (5.5 yppl), so TCU's attack may not be as good, relatively, when confronted with a good defensive team. Utah's advantage in this game is their great special teams, which could come into play in what should be a tightly contested game. This game is priced correctly, but the situational analysis is strongly in favor of Utah as a home underdog and I'll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.
SMU (-6.5) 33 TEXAS EL PASO 21
06-Nov-10 06:00 PM Pacific Time
UTEP has played an incredibly easy schedule this season and SMU will be the toughest team that the Miners have faced since losing 24-54 at Houston in week 2. El Paso has gained and allowed 5.6 yppl this season, but they've done so against teams that would combine to be out-gained 4.7 yppl to 6.1 yppl by an average Division 1A team - so the Miners are not close to being a mediocre team. SMU has out-gained their opponents 6.6 yppl to 5.1 yppl while rating at 0.9 yppl better than average on offense and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, so the Mustangs should have no trouble winning this game - even on the road. SMU has faced 4 teams that are about UTEP's caliber and they've won all 4 of those games by double-digit margins over UAB (by 21 points at home), Washington State (by 14 points at home), Rice (by 11 points on the road), and last week at Tulane (14 points). I'll call for another double-digit win by the Mustangs over a bad team, as my math model gives SMU a 55.5% chance over covering at -6 ½ points. I'll consider SMU a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
i post on the board of a band that doesn't exsist anymore .......i need my head examined.......
ollege Football Best Bet Sides
3 Star Selection
OKLAHOMA ST. (-7.5) 45 Baylor 28
06-Nov-10 09:30 AM Pacific Time
I've been on Oklahoma State since day 1 this season and I'm 5-1 when I've used them as either a Best Bet or Strong Opinion. I'm on the Cowboys again this week in a combination of line value and a very strong situation. I like Baylor's team and the Bears actually have a better offense (7.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) than Oklahoma State does (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl). However, Baylor is a bad defensive team, allowing 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl against an average defensive unit. Baylor has only faced 3 better than average offensive teams and the Bears allowed 45 points to TCU, 45 points to Texas Tech, and 42 points to Kansas State. That does not bode well for them here and I expect the Cowboys to hit their average of 45 points per game.
While Baylor won't be able to stop Oklahoma State's offense, the Cowboys have a good defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) that can at least slow down the Bears' potent attack enough to win this game by double-digits. Oklahoma State did give up 7.1 yppl and 51 points to Nebraska's great offense, but that was actually a decent effort since Nebraska would average 7.1 yppl on the road against an average defensive team. Baylor's median offensive output is 30.5 points in 8 Division 1A games and Oklahoma State's defense is better than average and I think the Bears are likely to be held to under 30 points in this game.
In addition to being better overall from the line of scrimmage, Oklahoma State also has significantly better special teams and my math model gives the Cowboys a solid 55% chance of covering at -7 ½ points (based on the historical performance of my model). The chances of Oklahoma State covering are greatly enhanced by two very strong situations that apply to this game. The Bears apply to a negative 23-78-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week's upset win at Texas and Oklahoma State applies to a very strong 79-18-3 ATS home momentum situation. Those two angles are completely independent of one another, as they've only intersected one time (an easy spread win by the home team), so Oklahoma State's chance of covering is over 60% with the situations and math combined. I'll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 points.
3 Star Selection
Boston College (-3.0) 26 WAKE FOREST 14
06-Nov-10 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Boston College has struggled offensively all season, but the Eagles can play defense and they are actually a pretty good team. BC has actually played even from the line of scrimmage against a tough schedule of Division 1A opponents (4.5 points better than average), averaging 283 yards at 4.5 yards per play while allowing just 299 yards at 4.4 yppl. The Eagles are slightly improved offensively with Chase Rettig at quarterback, but their attack is still 0.5 yards per play worse than average. Boston College hasn't had the luxury of facing a worse than average defensive team since they scored 38 points against Weber State in their opener. Today they get another shot at a bad defense, as Wake Forest has allowed 472 yards per game and 6.4 yppl in 7 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. As you can see, the Boston College offense and the Wake Forest defense are equally bad.
BC's advantage in this game is their great defense (4.4 yppl allowed to 1A teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) going up against a sub-par Wake Forest attack that is 0.7 yppl worse than average for the season overall and 0.4 yppl worse than average with Tanner Price at quarterback. Boston College is also significantly better in special teams and my math model projects a 353 yards at 5.3 yppl to 246 yards at 3.9 yppl advantage for the Eagles in this game, which should be enough to get their second consecutive win (they beat Clemson last week). Wake Forest, meanwhile, has lost 6 consecutive games since starting the season with wins over bad teams Presbyterian and Duke. What we have here is two equally poor offensive teams (BC -0.5 yppl and WF -0.4 yppl) with one team having one of the best defensive units in the country (BC 1.2 yppl better than average) while the other team is bad defensively (WF 0.5 yppl worse than average). My math model gives BC a 59% chance of covering at -3 points and the Eagles apply to a 56-17-2 ATS late season road favorite situation. I'll take Boston College in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points.
2 Star Selection
UAB (-10.0) 34 Marshall 17
06-Nov-10 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Marshall has covered the spread only twice all season and they were lucky to cover last week (needed a 2 point defensive conversion against UTEP to cover by 1 point). I have no problem going against the Thundering Herd again this week, especially on the road where this year's team is continuing a long tradition of poor play away from home. Marshall is 0-4 ATS on the road this season and 20-42-1 ATS as a visitor since 2000. The Thundering Herd also aren't nearly as good as UAB. Marshall's offense has averaged just 4.8 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and their rating would be 0.2 yppl worse without a 96 yard TD pass against West Virginia. UAB is bad defensively, allowing 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but the Blazers' stop unit actually has a 0.2 yppl advantage over Marshall's offense.
The bigger advantage for UAB is their good attack (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) going up against a poor Marshall defense that's 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). UAB also is likely to run considerably more plays than Marshall given the Herd's -10.7 play differential per game and UAB's +5.6 play differential. My math model projects 478 yards at 6.5 yppl for UAB and just 317 yards at 5.2 yppl for Marshall in this game and the Blazers have slight edges in projected turnovers and special teams to go along with the home field edge. My math model gives UAB a solid 56% chance of covering at -9 ½ points (based on the historical performance of my math model) and the Blazers apply to a 42-7 ATS home favorite momentum situation that is based on last week's upset win as a double-digit dog at Southern Miss. I'll take UAB in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
3 Star Selection
LOUISIANA TECH (pick) 37 Fresno St. 27
06-Nov-10 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Louisiana Tech is an underrated team that struggled early in the season without their starting quarterback. Ross Jenkins completed 15 of 19 passes in the opening game against Grambling State before getting hurt and he missed the Bulldogs' first 3 games against Division 1A competition - losses to Texas A&M, Navy, and Southern Miss by an average margin of 16 points. Jenkins returned in week 5, coming off the bench against Hawaii and he's started the last 3 games while improving the Louisiana Tech offense. For the season Louisiana Tech has been 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.2 yards per play against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Jenkins and his 68% completion percentage is a huge upgrade over the other 2 quarterbacks, who completed 59% of their passes. Jenkins has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and he was able to move the ball pretty well against a very good Boise State defense last week (394 total yards and 20 points). The other Louisiana Tech quarterbacks averaged just 4.8 yppp against 1A opponents that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB, so you can see how much better Jenkins has been. Louisiana Tech's offense has averaged 5.9 yards per play with Jenkins in the game against Division 1A opposition that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team. That attack should have no trouble moving the ball against a Fresno State defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl this season to 1A teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Jenkins will have success with his short, accurate passes while the Louisiana Tech rushing attack (4.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) will feast on a horrible Fresno defensive front that's allowed 6.2 yprp to teams that would combine to average just 4.4 yprp against an average team). Louisiana Tech's offense has a huge 1.2 yppl advantage in this game and should move the ball with ease.
Fresno State will also be able to move the ball, but their average attack (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) has only a 0.8 yppl advantage over Louisiana Tech's leaky defense (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Louisiana Tech not only has a 0.4 yppl advantage from the line of scrimmage but the Bulldogs have an edge in projected turnovers that offsets Fresno's advantage in special teams. Louisiana Tech has averaged -1.3 in turnover margin in their 7 games against Division 1A opponents, but that was because their two backup quarterbacks threw 9 interceptions in 3 games when Jenkins was out. Jenkins has only thrown 2 picks on 161 pass attempts this season and he's thrown just 10 interceptions in 650 career pass attempts for a very low 1.5% interception rate. With Louisiana Tech able to move the ball consistently without turnovers they should be able to win this game at home, where they are 12-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. My math model gives Louisiana Tech a 61% chance of covering in this game and I'll take Louisiana Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars from -1 ½ to -3 points.
3 Star Selection
TEXAS A&M (+3.0) 34 Oklahoma 26
06-Nov-10 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Oklahoma has proven that they can overwhelm bad teams like Iowa State and Colorado, but the Sooners are not good enough to out-play good teams and Texas A&M is an underrated good team. In 7 games against Division 1A opposition the Aggies have averaged 483 yards at 5.8 yppl while allowing 358 yards at just 4.8 yppl. A&M is a deceiving 4-3 straight up in those games because of a -6 in turnover margin, which is not something that is likely to continue. In fact, the Aggies have committed just 3 total turnovers in their last 3 games (all 3 last week and they still won easily for us). A&M is even less likely to beat themselves with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, as Tannehill has completed 73% of his 70 passes while throwing just 1 interception while former starter Jerrod Johnson was completing just 56.6% of his passes with a 3.2% interception rate. Tannehill has faced easier competition but his compensated numbers are still much better than Johnson's even after accounting for the possibility of variance. Texas A&M is 0.4 yppl better than average offensively for the season and I rate the Aggies' attack at 0.7 yppl better than average with Tannehill pulling the trigger. Oklahoma's defense, meanwhile, has given up 5.3 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yppl against an average team. I decided to throw out the Sooners' horrible defensive numbers from their opening game against Utah State (allowing a sub-par quarterback 8.0 yards per pass play) and doing so makes the Sooners 0.4 yppl better than average defensively, which is still 0.3 yppl worse than the A&M offense.
Oklahoma's offense is also at a disadvantage in this game, as the Sooners have averaged a modest 5.7 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while the Texas A&M defense is 0.7 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit). Texas A&M is better on both sides of the ball I don't expect turnovers to be an issue for them as they were early in the season (which is why they are underrated). Oklahoma, meanwhile, continues to be overrated and the Sooners have played just one good game all season against a good team (a big win over Florida State). The Sooners were out-played by Utah State (5.4 yppl to 5.6 yppl), by Air Force (4.9 yppl to 6.1 yppl), by Cincinnati (5.0 yppl to 6.6 yppl), by Texas (4.3 yppl to 5.9 yppl) and by Missouri (5.4 yppl to 6.0 yppl) and were lucky to win 4 of those games because of a +8 in turnover margin in the 4 close wins. Without the positive variance in turnovers in those 4 close wins the Sooners probably would have an extra two losses and be 5-3 right now - which is actually what their stats suggest that they should be. A&M hasn't fared well either against good teams, losing straight up to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri, but the Aggies out-gained those teams 418 yards to 404 yards and were 0.9 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage after compensating for how good those teams are (they were out-played by 0.8 yppl but Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri - teams would out-gain an average team by 1.7 yppl). Texas A&M will be without leading rusher Christine Michael, but Michael's average of 5.0 ypr should be replaced more than adequately by former starter Cyrus Gray, who is averaging 5.3 ypr this season on 78 carries and has averaged 4.94 ypr the last two seasons (1171 yards on 237 rushes), which is barely any different than the 5.05 ypr that Michael has rushed for since last season (1475 yards on 292 rushes).
My math model projects Texas A&M with a 462 yards to 411 yards edge in this game even with the Sooners expected to run 4 more plays than the Aggies. Oklahoma does have an edge in special teams, but my model favors Texas A&M to win straight up and the Aggies apply to a 65-15-2 ATS home momentum situation while Oklahoma applies to a negative 26-74-1 ATS situation. I'll take Texas A&M in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2-Stars at pick or -1.
College Football Strong Opinions
MICHIGAN ST. (-24.0) 43 Minnesota 14
06-Nov-10 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Normally teams that lose their first game of the season after a 5-0 start or better tend to letdown the next week when facing a losing team. However, the Spartans also apply to some very good big home favorite bounce-back situations that are based on the large margin that they lost to Iowa by (6-37). That was a bad loss, but Michigan State is still a very good team that has out-gained a better than average schedule of teams by an average of 6.6 yards per play to 5.0 yppl. The offense should flourish in this game against a horrible Minnesota defense that's given up 7.0 yppl (to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and is down a couple of key starters this week with DT Brandon Kirksey suspended for a game and CB Michael Carter suspended for the rest of the season for academic reasons. Minnesota's offense is decent (just 0.1 yppl worse than average), but the Spartans are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) and should hold the Gophers' attack in check. Michigan State hasn't been as efficient with their yards as they should be (i.e. they should have a bigger scoring margin than they do), so there is some value in favor of the Spartans here. In fact, my math model gives Michigan State a 57.9% chance of covering at -24 points (based on the historical performance of my model). I'm still a bit concerned about a possible letdown even though there are other angles that favor MSU, so I'll resist making this game a Best Bet.I'll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.
Iowa (-17.0) 35 INDIANA 13
06-Nov-10 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Iowa has held 5 of their 8 opponents to 7 points or fewer with the only teams to score more than 7 points being good offensive teams Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Indiana has averaged 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, so the Hoosiers fall into the category of below average offensive team and that probably spells trouble for them against Iowa's great defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team). Indiana has only faced two better than average defensive teams this season and the Hoosiers were held to 10 points by Ohio State and to 13 points by Illinois - so I don't expect them to score more than that against Iowa today. Iowa is averaging 6.4 yppl and 33.7 points against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team and Indiana allowed 38 points or more to the only two better than average offensive teams that they faced - 42 to Michigan and 38 to Ohio State. Asking Iowa to win by more than 17 points isn't asking too much and my math model gives the Hawkeyes a profitable 55% chance of covering at -17 points. I'll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at -17 or less.
UTAH (+4.5) 24 TCU 23
06-Nov-10 12:30 PM Pacific Time
When two unbeaten teams, both at least 6-0, get together the home underdog/pick is now 9-1 straight up (and 9-1 ATS) with Missouri beating Oklahoma adding to that a few weeks ago. Utah also applies to a 64-23-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 76-28-3 ATS statistical profile indicator while Utah applies to a negative 9-43 ATS unbeaten road team angle. The technical analysis is pretty strongly in favor of the Utes here and my math model favors TCU by 4 points - so the line is fair. TCU's defense has been dominating bad offensive teams lately and that unit is 1.2 yards per play better than average for the season (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Horned Frogs have been just as good against the 4 good offensive teams that they've faced, allowing a combined 5.2 yppl to Oregon State, Baylor, SMU, and Air Force - teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Utah's offense is 1.2 yppl better than average (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 to an average attack) and the Utes have had mixed results against the two better than average defensive teams that they've faced - averaging 6.4 yppl against a very good Pitt defense and just 4.4 yppl last week against Air Force. Utah's defense is 0.5 yppl better than average, allowing 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense and that unit shut down a good Pitt offense (4.2 yppl) while struggling last week against the Air Force option, which probably doesn't apply since a lot of good defensive teams can struggle against an option offense that they're not used to seeing. TCU's offense has been 1.4 yppl better than average so far this season (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl), but that attack was slowed by a better than average SMU defense (5.3 yppl in that game) and by a better than average BYU defense (5.5 yppl), so TCU's attack may not be as good, relatively, when confronted with a good defensive team. Utah's advantage in this game is their great special teams, which could come into play in what should be a tightly contested game. This game is priced correctly, but the situational analysis is strongly in favor of Utah as a home underdog and I'll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.
SMU (-6.5) 33 TEXAS EL PASO 21
06-Nov-10 06:00 PM Pacific Time
UTEP has played an incredibly easy schedule this season and SMU will be the toughest team that the Miners have faced since losing 24-54 at Houston in week 2. El Paso has gained and allowed 5.6 yppl this season, but they've done so against teams that would combine to be out-gained 4.7 yppl to 6.1 yppl by an average Division 1A team - so the Miners are not close to being a mediocre team. SMU has out-gained their opponents 6.6 yppl to 5.1 yppl while rating at 0.9 yppl better than average on offense and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, so the Mustangs should have no trouble winning this game - even on the road. SMU has faced 4 teams that are about UTEP's caliber and they've won all 4 of those games by double-digit margins over UAB (by 21 points at home), Washington State (by 14 points at home), Rice (by 11 points on the road), and last week at Tulane (14 points). I'll call for another double-digit win by the Mustangs over a bad team, as my math model gives SMU a 55.5% chance over covering at -6 ½ points. I'll consider SMU a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Dr Bob is in the house. Used to use him a lot back in the day. Heard he is now on the payrolls of some of the vegas sportsbooks. how's he been this year?
grab the points and take GT tonight. Tomorrow night I am on Central Michigan and the C Fla/Houston Under.
Great week last week...can't wait for saturday
UCLA
Wisconsin/Purdue UNDER
TCU/Utah OVER
Boise (I think they win by 45...bet this one big)
Northwestern
Fresno St
Michigan
Clemson/NC St OVER
Tennessee/Memphis UNDER
Mississippi
I also lean with Scar, miami, and indiana
Good Luck
Boise BIIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGGGGG.
Good day so far. Fucking NW fucks me again. I hate that team
at this point i would just prefer to be called Mr Monday night
cover city baby.....woooooo :thumbup:
Had 500 on usc. gave some money back on sunday. some brutal losses...jets (not sure how a LB caught holmes from behind in OT), houston, kc, philly. oh well, still another 4 figure weekend for this guy (1700). puts my total for the year into 5 digit territory.
I had the steelers last night too. had -5, so after sundays games I fully expected to take that one in the butt at the end.
Jump on toledo plus the points tonight. you can thank me tomorrow
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Needing a ride to Forest Hills and a ounce of weed. Please inquire within. Thanks. Or not. Posts: 58,276
Jump on toledo plus the points tonight. you can thank me tomorrow
Go Rockets.
that's right. wasn't mangino their coach at one point? I know they had some fatty running the show. that was the bruce gradkowski days.
they will cover tonight
Tom Amstutz magino.
they have had some solid coaches thru the years. Nick Saban stopped in for one season. Gary Pinkle was a solid coach before moving on to Missouri.
Tom was sort of the charlie weis of toledo.
The new coach Tim Beckman is the current coach. he is getting the program turned around again. I don't see him sticking around more than 4-5 years, but that's the life of a mid major program.
that's right. wasn't mangino their coach at one point? I know they had some fatty running the show. that was the bruce gradkowski days.
they will cover tonight
Tom Amstutz magino.
they have had some solid coaches thru the years. Nick Saban stopped in for one season. Gary Pinkle was a solid coach before moving on to Missouri.
Tom was sort of the charlie weis of toledo.
The new coach Tim Beckman is the current coach. he is getting the program turned around again. I don't see him sticking around more than 4-5 years, but that's the life of a mid major program.
haha, I wasn't sure if it was magiano or not.
go rockets tonight
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Needing a ride to Forest Hills and a ounce of weed. Please inquire within. Thanks. Or not. Posts: 58,276
didn't know that toledo's QB was out last night. had to chase my money with N Illinois -3.5 in the 2nd half. just lost 30 bucks in juice. Northern Ill is gonna give somebody a battle in their bowl game
Comments
one of my buddy's has a rule that he will never, under any circumstances bet against the forehead in a prime time game. My system likes the texans, so that's what I'm playing. I'm hoping the line gets up to 6 by game time.
you're crazy with those teasers. just straight bets for this guy...50/50 chance. good luck with whatever you go with...hopefully it will be another SD/Tenn type outcome for us.
I have been pretty terrible on monday night this year
i get a lot of shit from my friends with the teasers. they've worked well for me over the years though.
a lot of people have that same rule about peyton.
by the way...not that i think we're going to win--but the birds could not be playing the colts at a better time next week. interested to see what that line looks like. wish i didn't sell that game :evil:
I hear you, but it's not gonna matter. The Forehead might throw for 900 yards on the eagles shitty secondary. Indy will be laying 3-4...and they will be a lock.
The back door is cracked open...come on texans, give me some love
hopefully you're still in cover city though. undefeated week for your jeagler----2-0
nah, didn't go too large. used all of my heavy artillery on saturday and sunday. my bookie is gonna need a Brinks truck to deliver my winnings to me on saturday.
I should just give up on monday night games. I am like 2-6 this year on mondays
Great week last week...can't wait for saturday
UCLA
Wisconsin/Purdue UNDER
TCU/Utah OVER
Boise (I think they win by 45...bet this one big)
Northwestern
Fresno St
Michigan
Clemson/NC St OVER
Tennessee/Memphis UNDER
Mississippi
I also lean with Scar, miami, and indiana
Good Luck
i'm pretty psyched cuz i am switching bookies this weekend...hopefully. my long time book used a website which was super convenient. had the option to call or text it in if need be too. that guy is out of biz. new guy only accepts phone calls. no texts. what is this, 1997? you don't even know exactly what the line is till you call--and then his number is always, conveniently, slightly different than covers.com or sportsbook etc etc. ........guy at work uses the same site my old guy used to use. hopefully jumping on board that by sunday.
GT with another easy win. I AM ON FIREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Yeah, no texts is terrible. Prior to this year, that's how I would send all my bets in. That way I always had a record of my plays so there was never a discrepancy (I bet a lot of games, so it gets confusing). My guy went to the website this year...I hated it at first, but I have learned to love it. It makes everything so much easier.
what site do you use? beteagle.com was my once and future home
crsportsbetting.com
it is pretty money. he gives out an account number and that's pretty much it. only time I ever talk to him is when we set a time to meet up.
yeah that is how beteagle is. you can call in bets in through their costa rico number too if you need to. this new guy....never met him in person...never quite meshed with him on the phone....had to explain to him how a parlay pays out back in week 1. not good....looking forward to meeting him for the first time next week and him handing over a wad of cash to me though
just introduce yourself like this...'hey man, nice to meet you. I'm the jeagler, and I'm the one you're gonna be paying every week. thanks, talk to you next week.'
ha...no i mean i am meeting the guy i've been betting through this season for the first and last time in person next week.
3 Star Selection
OKLAHOMA ST. (-7.5) 45 Baylor 28
06-Nov-10 09:30 AM Pacific Time
I've been on Oklahoma State since day 1 this season and I'm 5-1 when I've used them as either a Best Bet or Strong Opinion. I'm on the Cowboys again this week in a combination of line value and a very strong situation. I like Baylor's team and the Bears actually have a better offense (7.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) than Oklahoma State does (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl). However, Baylor is a bad defensive team, allowing 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl against an average defensive unit. Baylor has only faced 3 better than average offensive teams and the Bears allowed 45 points to TCU, 45 points to Texas Tech, and 42 points to Kansas State. That does not bode well for them here and I expect the Cowboys to hit their average of 45 points per game.
While Baylor won't be able to stop Oklahoma State's offense, the Cowboys have a good defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) that can at least slow down the Bears' potent attack enough to win this game by double-digits. Oklahoma State did give up 7.1 yppl and 51 points to Nebraska's great offense, but that was actually a decent effort since Nebraska would average 7.1 yppl on the road against an average defensive team. Baylor's median offensive output is 30.5 points in 8 Division 1A games and Oklahoma State's defense is better than average and I think the Bears are likely to be held to under 30 points in this game.
In addition to being better overall from the line of scrimmage, Oklahoma State also has significantly better special teams and my math model gives the Cowboys a solid 55% chance of covering at -7 ½ points (based on the historical performance of my model). The chances of Oklahoma State covering are greatly enhanced by two very strong situations that apply to this game. The Bears apply to a negative 23-78-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week's upset win at Texas and Oklahoma State applies to a very strong 79-18-3 ATS home momentum situation. Those two angles are completely independent of one another, as they've only intersected one time (an easy spread win by the home team), so Oklahoma State's chance of covering is over 60% with the situations and math combined. I'll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 points.
3 Star Selection
Boston College (-3.0) 26 WAKE FOREST 14
06-Nov-10 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Boston College has struggled offensively all season, but the Eagles can play defense and they are actually a pretty good team. BC has actually played even from the line of scrimmage against a tough schedule of Division 1A opponents (4.5 points better than average), averaging 283 yards at 4.5 yards per play while allowing just 299 yards at 4.4 yppl. The Eagles are slightly improved offensively with Chase Rettig at quarterback, but their attack is still 0.5 yards per play worse than average. Boston College hasn't had the luxury of facing a worse than average defensive team since they scored 38 points against Weber State in their opener. Today they get another shot at a bad defense, as Wake Forest has allowed 472 yards per game and 6.4 yppl in 7 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. As you can see, the Boston College offense and the Wake Forest defense are equally bad.
BC's advantage in this game is their great defense (4.4 yppl allowed to 1A teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) going up against a sub-par Wake Forest attack that is 0.7 yppl worse than average for the season overall and 0.4 yppl worse than average with Tanner Price at quarterback. Boston College is also significantly better in special teams and my math model projects a 353 yards at 5.3 yppl to 246 yards at 3.9 yppl advantage for the Eagles in this game, which should be enough to get their second consecutive win (they beat Clemson last week). Wake Forest, meanwhile, has lost 6 consecutive games since starting the season with wins over bad teams Presbyterian and Duke. What we have here is two equally poor offensive teams (BC -0.5 yppl and WF -0.4 yppl) with one team having one of the best defensive units in the country (BC 1.2 yppl better than average) while the other team is bad defensively (WF 0.5 yppl worse than average). My math model gives BC a 59% chance of covering at -3 points and the Eagles apply to a 56-17-2 ATS late season road favorite situation. I'll take Boston College in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points.
2 Star Selection
UAB (-10.0) 34 Marshall 17
06-Nov-10 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Marshall has covered the spread only twice all season and they were lucky to cover last week (needed a 2 point defensive conversion against UTEP to cover by 1 point). I have no problem going against the Thundering Herd again this week, especially on the road where this year's team is continuing a long tradition of poor play away from home. Marshall is 0-4 ATS on the road this season and 20-42-1 ATS as a visitor since 2000. The Thundering Herd also aren't nearly as good as UAB. Marshall's offense has averaged just 4.8 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and their rating would be 0.2 yppl worse without a 96 yard TD pass against West Virginia. UAB is bad defensively, allowing 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but the Blazers' stop unit actually has a 0.2 yppl advantage over Marshall's offense.
The bigger advantage for UAB is their good attack (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) going up against a poor Marshall defense that's 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). UAB also is likely to run considerably more plays than Marshall given the Herd's -10.7 play differential per game and UAB's +5.6 play differential. My math model projects 478 yards at 6.5 yppl for UAB and just 317 yards at 5.2 yppl for Marshall in this game and the Blazers have slight edges in projected turnovers and special teams to go along with the home field edge. My math model gives UAB a solid 56% chance of covering at -9 ½ points (based on the historical performance of my math model) and the Blazers apply to a 42-7 ATS home favorite momentum situation that is based on last week's upset win as a double-digit dog at Southern Miss. I'll take UAB in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
3 Star Selection
LOUISIANA TECH (pick) 37 Fresno St. 27
06-Nov-10 01:00 PM Pacific Time
Louisiana Tech is an underrated team that struggled early in the season without their starting quarterback. Ross Jenkins completed 15 of 19 passes in the opening game against Grambling State before getting hurt and he missed the Bulldogs' first 3 games against Division 1A competition - losses to Texas A&M, Navy, and Southern Miss by an average margin of 16 points. Jenkins returned in week 5, coming off the bench against Hawaii and he's started the last 3 games while improving the Louisiana Tech offense. For the season Louisiana Tech has been 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.2 yards per play against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Jenkins and his 68% completion percentage is a huge upgrade over the other 2 quarterbacks, who completed 59% of their passes. Jenkins has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and he was able to move the ball pretty well against a very good Boise State defense last week (394 total yards and 20 points). The other Louisiana Tech quarterbacks averaged just 4.8 yppp against 1A opponents that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB, so you can see how much better Jenkins has been. Louisiana Tech's offense has averaged 5.9 yards per play with Jenkins in the game against Division 1A opposition that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team. That attack should have no trouble moving the ball against a Fresno State defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl this season to 1A teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Jenkins will have success with his short, accurate passes while the Louisiana Tech rushing attack (4.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) will feast on a horrible Fresno defensive front that's allowed 6.2 yprp to teams that would combine to average just 4.4 yprp against an average team). Louisiana Tech's offense has a huge 1.2 yppl advantage in this game and should move the ball with ease.
Fresno State will also be able to move the ball, but their average attack (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) has only a 0.8 yppl advantage over Louisiana Tech's leaky defense (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Louisiana Tech not only has a 0.4 yppl advantage from the line of scrimmage but the Bulldogs have an edge in projected turnovers that offsets Fresno's advantage in special teams. Louisiana Tech has averaged -1.3 in turnover margin in their 7 games against Division 1A opponents, but that was because their two backup quarterbacks threw 9 interceptions in 3 games when Jenkins was out. Jenkins has only thrown 2 picks on 161 pass attempts this season and he's thrown just 10 interceptions in 650 career pass attempts for a very low 1.5% interception rate. With Louisiana Tech able to move the ball consistently without turnovers they should be able to win this game at home, where they are 12-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. My math model gives Louisiana Tech a 61% chance of covering in this game and I'll take Louisiana Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars from -1 ½ to -3 points.
3 Star Selection
TEXAS A&M (+3.0) 34 Oklahoma 26
06-Nov-10 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Oklahoma has proven that they can overwhelm bad teams like Iowa State and Colorado, but the Sooners are not good enough to out-play good teams and Texas A&M is an underrated good team. In 7 games against Division 1A opposition the Aggies have averaged 483 yards at 5.8 yppl while allowing 358 yards at just 4.8 yppl. A&M is a deceiving 4-3 straight up in those games because of a -6 in turnover margin, which is not something that is likely to continue. In fact, the Aggies have committed just 3 total turnovers in their last 3 games (all 3 last week and they still won easily for us). A&M is even less likely to beat themselves with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, as Tannehill has completed 73% of his 70 passes while throwing just 1 interception while former starter Jerrod Johnson was completing just 56.6% of his passes with a 3.2% interception rate. Tannehill has faced easier competition but his compensated numbers are still much better than Johnson's even after accounting for the possibility of variance. Texas A&M is 0.4 yppl better than average offensively for the season and I rate the Aggies' attack at 0.7 yppl better than average with Tannehill pulling the trigger. Oklahoma's defense, meanwhile, has given up 5.3 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yppl against an average team. I decided to throw out the Sooners' horrible defensive numbers from their opening game against Utah State (allowing a sub-par quarterback 8.0 yards per pass play) and doing so makes the Sooners 0.4 yppl better than average defensively, which is still 0.3 yppl worse than the A&M offense.
Oklahoma's offense is also at a disadvantage in this game, as the Sooners have averaged a modest 5.7 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while the Texas A&M defense is 0.7 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit). Texas A&M is better on both sides of the ball I don't expect turnovers to be an issue for them as they were early in the season (which is why they are underrated). Oklahoma, meanwhile, continues to be overrated and the Sooners have played just one good game all season against a good team (a big win over Florida State). The Sooners were out-played by Utah State (5.4 yppl to 5.6 yppl), by Air Force (4.9 yppl to 6.1 yppl), by Cincinnati (5.0 yppl to 6.6 yppl), by Texas (4.3 yppl to 5.9 yppl) and by Missouri (5.4 yppl to 6.0 yppl) and were lucky to win 4 of those games because of a +8 in turnover margin in the 4 close wins. Without the positive variance in turnovers in those 4 close wins the Sooners probably would have an extra two losses and be 5-3 right now - which is actually what their stats suggest that they should be. A&M hasn't fared well either against good teams, losing straight up to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri, but the Aggies out-gained those teams 418 yards to 404 yards and were 0.9 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage after compensating for how good those teams are (they were out-played by 0.8 yppl but Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri - teams would out-gain an average team by 1.7 yppl). Texas A&M will be without leading rusher Christine Michael, but Michael's average of 5.0 ypr should be replaced more than adequately by former starter Cyrus Gray, who is averaging 5.3 ypr this season on 78 carries and has averaged 4.94 ypr the last two seasons (1171 yards on 237 rushes), which is barely any different than the 5.05 ypr that Michael has rushed for since last season (1475 yards on 292 rushes).
My math model projects Texas A&M with a 462 yards to 411 yards edge in this game even with the Sooners expected to run 4 more plays than the Aggies. Oklahoma does have an edge in special teams, but my model favors Texas A&M to win straight up and the Aggies apply to a 65-15-2 ATS home momentum situation while Oklahoma applies to a negative 26-74-1 ATS situation. I'll take Texas A&M in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2-Stars at pick or -1.
College Football Strong Opinions
MICHIGAN ST. (-24.0) 43 Minnesota 14
06-Nov-10 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Normally teams that lose their first game of the season after a 5-0 start or better tend to letdown the next week when facing a losing team. However, the Spartans also apply to some very good big home favorite bounce-back situations that are based on the large margin that they lost to Iowa by (6-37). That was a bad loss, but Michigan State is still a very good team that has out-gained a better than average schedule of teams by an average of 6.6 yards per play to 5.0 yppl. The offense should flourish in this game against a horrible Minnesota defense that's given up 7.0 yppl (to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and is down a couple of key starters this week with DT Brandon Kirksey suspended for a game and CB Michael Carter suspended for the rest of the season for academic reasons. Minnesota's offense is decent (just 0.1 yppl worse than average), but the Spartans are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) and should hold the Gophers' attack in check. Michigan State hasn't been as efficient with their yards as they should be (i.e. they should have a bigger scoring margin than they do), so there is some value in favor of the Spartans here. In fact, my math model gives Michigan State a 57.9% chance of covering at -24 points (based on the historical performance of my model). I'm still a bit concerned about a possible letdown even though there are other angles that favor MSU, so I'll resist making this game a Best Bet.I'll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.
Iowa (-17.0) 35 INDIANA 13
06-Nov-10 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Iowa has held 5 of their 8 opponents to 7 points or fewer with the only teams to score more than 7 points being good offensive teams Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Indiana has averaged 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, so the Hoosiers fall into the category of below average offensive team and that probably spells trouble for them against Iowa's great defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team). Indiana has only faced two better than average defensive teams this season and the Hoosiers were held to 10 points by Ohio State and to 13 points by Illinois - so I don't expect them to score more than that against Iowa today. Iowa is averaging 6.4 yppl and 33.7 points against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team and Indiana allowed 38 points or more to the only two better than average offensive teams that they faced - 42 to Michigan and 38 to Ohio State. Asking Iowa to win by more than 17 points isn't asking too much and my math model gives the Hawkeyes a profitable 55% chance of covering at -17 points. I'll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at -17 or less.
UTAH (+4.5) 24 TCU 23
06-Nov-10 12:30 PM Pacific Time
When two unbeaten teams, both at least 6-0, get together the home underdog/pick is now 9-1 straight up (and 9-1 ATS) with Missouri beating Oklahoma adding to that a few weeks ago. Utah also applies to a 64-23-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 76-28-3 ATS statistical profile indicator while Utah applies to a negative 9-43 ATS unbeaten road team angle. The technical analysis is pretty strongly in favor of the Utes here and my math model favors TCU by 4 points - so the line is fair. TCU's defense has been dominating bad offensive teams lately and that unit is 1.2 yards per play better than average for the season (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Horned Frogs have been just as good against the 4 good offensive teams that they've faced, allowing a combined 5.2 yppl to Oregon State, Baylor, SMU, and Air Force - teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Utah's offense is 1.2 yppl better than average (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 to an average attack) and the Utes have had mixed results against the two better than average defensive teams that they've faced - averaging 6.4 yppl against a very good Pitt defense and just 4.4 yppl last week against Air Force. Utah's defense is 0.5 yppl better than average, allowing 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense and that unit shut down a good Pitt offense (4.2 yppl) while struggling last week against the Air Force option, which probably doesn't apply since a lot of good defensive teams can struggle against an option offense that they're not used to seeing. TCU's offense has been 1.4 yppl better than average so far this season (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl), but that attack was slowed by a better than average SMU defense (5.3 yppl in that game) and by a better than average BYU defense (5.5 yppl), so TCU's attack may not be as good, relatively, when confronted with a good defensive team. Utah's advantage in this game is their great special teams, which could come into play in what should be a tightly contested game. This game is priced correctly, but the situational analysis is strongly in favor of Utah as a home underdog and I'll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.
SMU (-6.5) 33 TEXAS EL PASO 21
06-Nov-10 06:00 PM Pacific Time
UTEP has played an incredibly easy schedule this season and SMU will be the toughest team that the Miners have faced since losing 24-54 at Houston in week 2. El Paso has gained and allowed 5.6 yppl this season, but they've done so against teams that would combine to be out-gained 4.7 yppl to 6.1 yppl by an average Division 1A team - so the Miners are not close to being a mediocre team. SMU has out-gained their opponents 6.6 yppl to 5.1 yppl while rating at 0.9 yppl better than average on offense and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, so the Mustangs should have no trouble winning this game - even on the road. SMU has faced 4 teams that are about UTEP's caliber and they've won all 4 of those games by double-digit margins over UAB (by 21 points at home), Washington State (by 14 points at home), Rice (by 11 points on the road), and last week at Tulane (14 points). I'll call for another double-digit win by the Mustangs over a bad team, as my math model gives SMU a 55.5% chance over covering at -6 ½ points. I'll consider SMU a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Dr Bob is in the house. Used to use him a lot back in the day. Heard he is now on the payrolls of some of the vegas sportsbooks. how's he been this year?
and that's how you finish. had no business winning that one. I feel like I just stole something.
Boise BIIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGGGGG.
Good day so far. Fucking NW fucks me again. I hate that team
Let's go UCLA. Big bet on them tonight
Beginning
Of Week Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
Win/Loss -460 250 10 200 280 3463 0 3743
Cash In/Out 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balance 0 -460 -210 -200 0 280 3743 3743 3743
please tell me you did not blow all that on usc last night dude...
that is some serious change though. i haven't bet like that in years
....and good luck today! always scares me when i like a lot of the lines as i do today....
but a big parlay in the birds over/raiders puts your jeagler back in the black for the day. :thumbup:
rode the pack big time last night as well....and teased them with the steelers this evening.
hope you folks did well.
i think it's a safe bet to against dallas from here on out
cover city baby.....woooooo :thumbup:
Had 500 on usc. gave some money back on sunday. some brutal losses...jets (not sure how a LB caught holmes from behind in OT), houston, kc, philly. oh well, still another 4 figure weekend for this guy (1700). puts my total for the year into 5 digit territory.
I had the steelers last night too. had -5, so after sundays games I fully expected to take that one in the butt at the end.
Jump on toledo plus the points tonight. you can thank me tomorrow
Go Rockets.
that's right. wasn't mangino their coach at one point? I know they had some fatty running the show. that was the bruce gradkowski days.
they will cover tonight
Tom Amstutz
they have had some solid coaches thru the years. Nick Saban stopped in for one season. Gary Pinkle was a solid coach before moving on to Missouri.
Tom was sort of the charlie weis of toledo.
The new coach Tim Beckman is the current coach. he is getting the program turned around again. I don't see him sticking around more than 4-5 years, but that's the life of a mid major program.
haha, I wasn't sure if it was magiano or not.
go rockets tonight
brutal game to watch
I'm on the Ohio/Bowling Green OVER tonight