love this idea. thursday night football all season long.
My selfish side likes this idea only because that would mean more days of football, but I'm not sure that I could back this. Prepping for a game on a short week like that makes me nervous. They'd have to schedule it so that the teams' byes are the week before in order for it to work.
WI '98, WI '99 (EV), WI '00, Chgo '00, MO '00, Champaign '03, Chgo '03, WI '03, IN '03, MI '04, Chgo '06:N1 & 2, WI '06, Chgo '07, Chgo '08 (EV:N1), Chgo '09:N1 & 2, Chgo '11 (EV:N1), WI '11:N1 & 2, Philly '12, Wrigley '13, Pitt '13, Buff '13, Detroit '14, MKE '14, Wrigley '16: N1 & N2, Seattle '18 N2, Wrigley '18: N1 & N2, Fenway '18 N1, STL '22, St Paul '23 N2, Chgo '23: N1 & N2
love this idea. thursday night football all season long.
My selfish side likes this idea only because that would mean more days of football, but I'm not sure that I could back this. Prepping for a game on a short week like that makes me nervous. They'd have to schedule it so that the teams' byes are the week before in order for it to work.
agreed. i would think they'd have to schedule teams coming off a bye to make this work.
How to identify NFL's best quarterbacks
August, 1, 2011 Aug 19:30AM ETEmail Print Comments By Mike SandoThe late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.
Quite the opposite, in fact.
"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It’s simply a passing statistic."
I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.
Game situations should count for something, and now they do.
With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.
[+] EnlargeAl Bello/Getty Images
According to an outline for the rating system, Tom Brady would fall in the "top tier" category.I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.
Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.
The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.
"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."
Now it can, along with a whole lot more.
The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.
"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn’t game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."
I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:
Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.
ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.
"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.
IMO, sounds like a bunch of mental masterbastion that at the end of the day, isn't going to tell us much more than we already know.
sort of reminds me of the war stat.
ha...yeah you may have a point as it looks like the all the top tier qb's on that list were the top ones in the passer rating lists.
still i also just think it is annoying when people marvel at a guy who had a 120 rating in a game. nobody knows what the means (like war). we all know it's good...but not why. at least this will be easier to understand. hopefully.
at least this will be easier to understand. hopefully.
sooo, whatcha think a 4 yard completion on 2 and 20 from your own 10, down 4 in the 1st quarter is worth when facing the eagles D vs. the rams D?
they are taking defensive ratings into this? right?
i think so. not sure if the defensive rankings are factored in. it's more game situations:
The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.
in typical espn fashion, they are introducing this on a special edition of sports center on friday night. i'll just wait to read about it on the website
I never pay attention to QB ratings. Anyone who knows the game knows it's really meaningless. Only one stat counts = WINS! More importantly SB WINS!(and I think there are only two active guys with more than one of these)
I never pay attention to QB ratings. Anyone who knows the game knows it's really meaningless. Only one stat counts = WINS! More importantly SB WINS!(and I think there are only two active guys with more than one of these)
over/under on how many more times this guy changes his name or avatar before the end of the year?
I never pay attention to QB ratings. Anyone who knows the game knows it's really meaningless. Only one stat counts = WINS! More importantly SB WINS!(and I think there are only two active guys with more than one of these)
over/under on how many more times this guy changes his name or avatar before the end of the year?
i got it at 3. any takers?
I'll put $50 on that. Going to put your money where your mouth is?
I never pay attention to QB ratings. Anyone who knows the game knows it's really meaningless. Only one stat counts = WINS! More importantly SB WINS!(and I think there are only two active guys with more than one of these)
over/under on how many more times this guy changes his name or avatar before the end of the year?
i got it at 3. any takers?
I'll put $50 on that. Going to put your money where your mouth is?
I just like fucking with you. You Philly fans really get bent out of shape. I really didn't like how McNabb was run out of town. Was rooting for the PA SB in what '06?
I just like fucking with you. You Philly fans really get bent out of shape. I really didn't like how McNabb was run out of town. Was rooting for the PA SB in what '06?
Back to the real me. That's one jeags, maybe you should take that bet.
ha...about the steelers bet----wanna wait and see how the birds look this month. the asshole fan in me chants super bowl! super bowl! super bowl! the realist in me knows we have a coach with a 13 year history of coming up small in the biggest of games, an offensive line coach coordinating a defense for the first time in 20 years (with the last one being at some fucking high school), a quarterback who really needed a full offseason of ota's to continue his learning curve, and about a thousand new faces who will take time to jell.
sb is the expectation though this year. no doubt it.
Back to the real me. That's one jeags, maybe you should take that bet.
ha...about the steelers bet----wanna wait and see how the birds look this month. the asshole fan in me chants super bowl! super bowl! super bowl! the realist in me knows we have a coach with a 13 year history of coming up small in the biggest of games, an offensive line coach coordinating a defense for the first time in 20 years (with the last one being at some fucking high school), a quarterback who really needed a full offseason of ota's to continue his learning curve, and about a thousand new faces who will take time to jell.
sb is the expectation though this year. no doubt it.
Just let me know before the season begins. I think you guys will be real good, I don't know about the Steelers, didn't even think they would make the playoffs last year and well. I'm rooting for a PA SB. Think we have a pre-season game is it in Philly?
Back to the real me. That's one jeags, maybe you should take that bet.
ha...about the steelers bet----wanna wait and see how the birds look this month. the asshole fan in me chants super bowl! super bowl! super bowl! the realist in me knows we have a coach with a 13 year history of coming up small in the biggest of games, an offensive line coach coordinating a defense for the first time in 20 years (with the last one being at some fucking high school), a quarterback who really needed a full offseason of ota's to continue his learning curve, and about a thousand new faces who will take time to jell.
sb is the expectation though this year. no doubt it.
Just let me know before the season begins. I think you guys will be real good, I don't know about the Steelers, didn't even think they would make the playoffs last year and well. I'm rooting for a PA SB. Think we have a pre-season game is it in Philly?
the steelers are idiots (and or demorice smith is a dope):
Steelers voted 78-6 against CBA
Posted by Mike Florio on August 5, 2011, 2:33 PM EDT
It has been widely reported that the Steelers voted against the new CBA. Per a league source with knowledge of the voting, 78 players voted against the CBA, and six players voted in favor of it.
The primary complaint, we’re told, was a lack of knowledge about what the players were agreeing to.
And so it was more than just a protest against the league. It was also, if not primarily, an objection to the absence of information that was provided to the players by the NFLPA.
Comments
My selfish side likes this idea only because that would mean more days of football, but I'm not sure that I could back this. Prepping for a game on a short week like that makes me nervous. They'd have to schedule it so that the teams' byes are the week before in order for it to work.
agreed. i would think they'd have to schedule teams coming off a bye to make this work.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... arterbacks
How to identify NFL's best quarterbacks
August, 1, 2011 Aug 19:30AM ETEmail Print Comments By Mike SandoThe late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.
Quite the opposite, in fact.
"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It’s simply a passing statistic."
I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.
Game situations should count for something, and now they do.
With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.
[+] EnlargeAl Bello/Getty Images
According to an outline for the rating system, Tom Brady would fall in the "top tier" category.I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.
Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.
The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.
"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."
Now it can, along with a whole lot more.
The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.
"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn’t game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."
I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:
Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.
ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.
"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.
be nice if that number was something you could actually understand as opposed to the qb rating right?
and you understand how the forumla works in the espn calculation? might as well call it the bcsqb formula.
we all know manning, brady, brees and rodgers are at the top qb's without looking at a single number.
no because they haven't released the calculation yet. comes out friday.
i do like how this will have a greater importance on clutch situations.
sort of reminds me of the war stat.
ha...yeah you may have a point as it looks like the all the top tier qb's on that list were the top ones in the passer rating lists.
still i also just think it is annoying when people marvel at a guy who had a 120 rating in a game. nobody knows what the means (like war). we all know it's good...but not why. at least this will be easier to understand. hopefully.
sooo, whatcha think a 4 yard completion on 2 and 20 from your own 10, down 4 in the 1st quarter is worth when facing the eagles D vs. the rams D?
they are taking defensive ratings into this? right?
i think so. not sure if the defensive rankings are factored in. it's more game situations:
The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.
in typical espn fashion, they are introducing this on a special edition of sports center on friday night.
you'll be watching it naked with a hard on. i know you philly people.
NO pictures please.
over/under on how many more times this guy changes his name or avatar before the end of the year?
i got it at 3. any takers?
pretty sure there's a conflict of interest there.
how come you're so angry in your football posts?
i'm not bent out of shape at all dude
Love the name of the port-o-john company. haha
i think that kid is crapping his pants. you know that had to make his day.
they didn't retire the fridge's number?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Be ... ed_numbers
while he was/is popular with the fans, his career did not warrent a retirement party.
but perhaps Gabe earned a new nickname.
ha...about the steelers bet----wanna wait and see how the birds look this month. the asshole fan in me chants super bowl! super bowl! super bowl! the realist in me knows we have a coach with a 13 year history of coming up small in the biggest of games, an offensive line coach coordinating a defense for the first time in 20 years (with the last one being at some fucking high school), a quarterback who really needed a full offseason of ota's to continue his learning curve, and about a thousand new faces who will take time to jell.
sb is the expectation though this year. no doubt it.
yeah they play on the 18th in pittsburgh
Steelers voted 78-6 against CBA
Posted by Mike Florio on August 5, 2011, 2:33 PM EDT
It has been widely reported that the Steelers voted against the new CBA. Per a league source with knowledge of the voting, 78 players voted against the CBA, and six players voted in favor of it.
The primary complaint, we’re told, was a lack of knowledge about what the players were agreeing to.
And so it was more than just a protest against the league. It was also, if not primarily, an objection to the absence of information that was provided to the players by the NFLPA.