Yeah hearing he's doubtful but if he plays starting with game 1 then he'll be about 60% the rest of the way with a higher chance of injury. But if they wait till game 3 he'll be closer to 90%. I hate to say it, but I think ya gotta hold him out till game 3. God damnit.
Yeah hearing he's doubtful but if he plays starting with game 1 then he'll be about 60% the rest of the way with a higher chance of injury. But if they wait till game 3 he'll be closer to 90%. I hate to say it, but I think ya gotta hold him out till game 3. God damnit.
I heard them talking about the article that said this on the Rights to Ricky podcast. Those numbers are extremely hypothetical and coming from a doc that knows nothing about Joel’s specific injury.
The truth of the matter is that we won’t know until we know. The only source that has said “doubtful” is Doc, and he’s going to make it sound like the sky is falling no matter what. Anything to keep the Celtics on their toes.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,298
Yeah hearing he's doubtful but if he plays starting with game 1 then he'll be about 60% the rest of the way with a higher chance of injury. But if they wait till game 3 he'll be closer to 90%. I hate to say it, but I think ya gotta hold him out till game 3. God damnit.
I heard them talking about the article that said this on the Rights to Ricky podcast. Those numbers are extremely hypothetical and coming from a doc that knows nothing about Joel’s specific injury.
The truth of the matter is that we won’t know until we know. The only source that has said “doubtful” is Doc, and he’s going to make it sound like the sky is falling no matter what. Anything to keep the Celtics on their toes.
***
Kinda think it makes sense to sit him for at least the first one. But if they lose that, I don't think there's anyway he doesn't play in game 2.
Yeah hearing he's doubtful but if he plays starting with game 1 then he'll be about 60% the rest of the way with a higher chance of injury. But if they wait till game 3 he'll be closer to 90%. I hate to say it, but I think ya gotta hold him out till game 3. God damnit.
I heard them talking about the article that said this on the Rights to Ricky podcast. Those numbers are extremely hypothetical and coming from a doc that knows nothing about Joel’s specific injury.
The truth of the matter is that we won’t know until we know. The only source that has said “doubtful” is Doc, and he’s going to make it sound like the sky is falling no matter what. Anything to keep the Celtics on their toes.
Kinda think it makes sense to sit him for at least the first one. But if they lose that, I don't think there's anyway he doesn't play in game 2.
Oh I’m sure you’re right! I’m referencing the article peddling the 60% number and the Debbie downers on the podcast acting as if Joel is a paraplegic.
Yeah hearing he's doubtful but if he plays starting with game 1 then he'll be about 60% the rest of the way with a higher chance of injury. But if they wait till game 3 he'll be closer to 90%. I hate to say it, but I think ya gotta hold him out till game 3. God damnit.
I heard them talking about the article that said this on the Rights to Ricky podcast. Those numbers are extremely hypothetical and coming from a doc that knows nothing about Joel’s specific injury.
The truth of the matter is that we won’t know until we know. The only source that has said “doubtful” is Doc, and he’s going to make it sound like the sky is falling no matter what. Anything to keep the Celtics on their toes.
Yes, context is everything. But IF this is the deal then I'd go with plan B.
But at minimum it seems like sitting him for Game 1 at the least would be best.
Yeah hearing he's doubtful but if he plays starting with game 1 then he'll be about 60% the rest of the way with a higher chance of injury. But if they wait till game 3 he'll be closer to 90%. I hate to say it, but I think ya gotta hold him out till game 3. God damnit.
I heard them talking about the article that said this on the Rights to Ricky podcast. Those numbers are extremely hypothetical and coming from a doc that knows nothing about Joel’s specific injury.
The truth of the matter is that we won’t know until we know. The only source that has said “doubtful” is Doc, and he’s going to make it sound like the sky is falling no matter what. Anything to keep the Celtics on their toes.
Yes, context is everything. But IF this is the deal then I'd go with plan B.
But at minimum it seems like sitting him for Game 1 at the least would be best.
Yeah, I’m all for it if it’s truthfully the smart thing to do. Doc teams do tend to over perform in those situations.
So much negativity. The Bruins choked. Let's make Boston even sadder!
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; SeaHearNow Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Chamberlain vs Russell. Erving vs Bird. Belinelli vs Tatum. Confetti vs the scoreboard.
The Sixers and Celtics have a longstanding rivalry that is up there with any in professional sports. That includes recent entries in 2018 and 2020, with Boston ending the Sixers' season with victories in the second and first round of those playoffs, respectively.
More important than the history between these two clubs is how this series could impact the future of the 76ers. From James Harden and his potential free agency this summer, to the legacies of Embiid, Harden, Rivers, and Morey, the Sixers have a real chance to rewrite the narrative surrounding this team if they're able to pull off a series win over their longtime nemesis.
Yet despite all of that, all anyone can talk about is the right knee of Joel Hans Embiid, a frustratingly familiar place that Sixers fans find themselves in. Will he be available for either of the two games in Boston? Once he returns, can he stay healthy for the rest of the series? How close to 100% will he be? Will we ever get an answer to the question of how far a healthy Joel Embiid can carry a team in the playoffs?
There's so much potential intrigue in this series, and all of that is clouded by the uncertainty around Embiid. Hopefully, Embiid comes back and looks like himself so we can move on and focus on the basketball at hand, without applying any asterisks. If not, it's going to be a monumental, uphill battle for the Sixers in this series.
Included in this post:
Sixers vs Celtics schedule.
Previous matchups.
Statistical comparison between the teams.
Keys to the series.
My prediction.
76ers vs Celtics playoff schedule
5/1 (Mon): 76ers at Celtics, 7:30 pm, TNT.
5/3 (Wed): 76ers at Celtics, 8 pm, TNT.
5/5 (Fri): Celtics at 76ers, 7:30 pm, ESPN.
5/7 (Sun): Celtics at 76ers, 3:30 pm, ESPN.
5/9 (Tues): 76ers at Celtics, TNT (time TBD).
5/11 (Thurs): Celtics at 76ers, ESPN (time TBD).
5/14 (Sun): 76ers at Celtics (time and channel TBD).
Most of the team stats below are from CleaningTheGlass.com, with the exception of the pull-up and no-dribble stats in the final comparison. All stats in this section are from the regular season. Stats in bold are the team that performed better in the comparison.
"He did a little bit more (today). Not much," Rivers said about Embiid's participation level at practice on Sunday. "He didn't do any running, or anything like that. Just did some shooting and stuff."
Rivers would go on to say that Joel Embiid is still doubtful for Game 1, but "he's improving daily." Embiid was officially listed as doubtful on today's injury report with a right knee sprain.
"There's some thought around this team that it's going to be a miracle if he ended up showing up tonight on the floor," Shams Charania said of Embiid in the video below.
From Run It Back on @FanDuelTV: The latest surrounding 76ers star Joel Embiid, who, sources say, underwent platelet-rich plasma treatment on his injured knee as part of his recovery process: pic.twitter.com/EWsEuETHn6
The Sixers were able to take care of the Brooklyn Nets in Game 4 without Embiid, but they're up against a very different opponent here in the Boston Celtics, who have significantly more length on the perimeter, and depth off their bench. Boston has three guys in Tatum, Brown and Brogdon who they can trust to isolate and attack mismatches off the dribble, can draw in defenders and launch as many 3s as any team in the league, have eight players in their rotation that they can trust in virtually any matchup, are incredibly disciplined in getting back in transition and can switch most ball screens on the perimeter.
The Sixers had one equalizer: Joel Embiid.
The Celtics have typically avoided sending the hard, automatic, "just get the freaking ball out of his hands no matter what" kind of double teams that the Raptors and, this year, the Nets have used, instead opting to let Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown dig down from the top of the key, showing Embiid just enough length to try to disrupt him, while still being able to recover back out to shooters and run them off of the 3-point line before they fire off an open, high-value 3.
In the past the Celtics had big bodies (specifically think of Aron Baynes, here) who could stand Embiid up for just a split second on his initial move, giving Boston's perimeter players an extra second or two to try to time their double teams before Embiid was at the rim. But that's not the case anymore, and Embiid used that (along with the refinement in his face-up game) to his advantage and absolutely tore Boston apart in the regular season, averaging 36.8 points in 38.8 minutes per game and shooting 61.2% against the Celtics.
Boston tried a number of different defenders on Embiid, including guys like Blake Griffin and even Noah Vonleh earlier on in the season when they were hit by injury trouble (worth noting here: Robert Williams played in just one of the four games between these two teams). But the most consistent defenders on Embiid were Al Horford and Grant Williams. Neither even remotely slowed Embiid down, as Embiid averaged 60.6 points per 100 possessions and shot 64.3% against Horford this year, and averaged 47 points per 100 and shot 58.1% against Williams.
Boston almost concedes Embiid's dominance in part because they're able to recover to 3-point shooters, and they did a great job of limiting the Sixers' two high-volume 3-point shooters (Maxey and Niang) during the regular season. It's almost the exact opposite of Brooklyn's strategy in Round 1, and if the Sixers are going to overcome that, Embiid needs to absolutely eat as a scorer.
That window – where Embiid can attack Horford or Williams, before help gets there – isn't going to be open all that long. The longer Embiid holds the ball, the more daring Boston is going to get in changing up the timing of their double teams. If Embiid is indecisive, or if he doesn't have the first step or the quickness to attack the gaps, it might be tough for him to have as much success as he did in the regular season.
And, of course, there's the defense...
Stopping Boston's five-out offense
Boston's best lineups tend to feature Al Horford at the five, putting shooters on the floor at every position and allowing their perimeter players maximum space to operate. They can then run pick-and-rolls and dribble handoffs until they get the matchup they want to attack, and with some combination of Tatum, Brown, White and Brogdon on the floor, there's usually one (or multiple) matchups that Boston is confident they can exploit. That's going to be especially true against James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and the Philadelphia 76ers.
For the most part, the Sixers did a pretty good job of holding Tatum and Brown in (relative) check for the regular season series. Sure, Tatum and Brown each had 35 in Boston's opening night win, but the Sixers then held Tatum to under 20 points in each of the next three meetings, and he shot just 19-52 (36.5%) in those last three games.
But each of those three games in 2023 featured somebody other than the Jay's tearing the Sixers apart, whether it was Derrick White (19, 18 and 26 in the final three matchups) as a scorer or Malcolm Brogdon's drive-and-kick game. The Sixers just run out of viable defenders to match up with all of Boston's perimeter creators, especially when the floor is well-spaced.
I actually think the Sixers have a chance of competing decently well defensively in the game(s) that Embiid misses, as Paul Reed in a switching scheme can simplify the Sixers' defense, can help limit Boston's pull-up jumpers and possibly prevent the Sixers from getting into the kind of rotations that Boston's perimeter players can pick apart. Reed staying out of foul trouble, and out of Doc's dog house, will be a big key here.
But when Embiid does return, can he move laterally like he did before the injury? Can you bring him up closer to the level of the screen, or will Tatum, Brown, and Brogdon feast on uncontested pull-up jumpers? If the Sixers have to send help from the wings because Embiid can't contain the two-man game, can they recover in time to prevent Boston (42.6 3pta per 100 possessions, to just 33.3 for the Sixers) from absolutely dominating the math game?
This is probably the last series in the world you'd want Embiid to be operating at 60% of his normal athleticism, and it'll be a big test for everyone involved.
3-point shooting, and Tyrese Maxey
I mentioned above how the Celtics don't sell out to get the ball out of Embiid's hands, and that, combined with Boston's excellent perimeter defense in general, really limited the Sixers' 3-point shooters during the regular season matchup.
As a team the Sixers shot just 35.5% from 3-point range, on just 30.3 attempts per game, against the Celtics. That's not going to cut it, especially if Embiid's not able to drop 40 per night.
I won't focus too much on Georges Niang, who shot just 18.8% from the field and 16.7% from 3 in four games against the Celtics in the regular season, because quite honestly he shouldn't be in the rotation once Embiid returns to action.
The real key is Tyrese Maxey, whose attempts went from 6.2 3s per game overall to just 3.5 per game against the Celtics. That's not nearly enough. That's barely more than PJ Tucker (3.0 per game, although Boston all but runs away from Tucker in the corner, daring him to shoot).
Freeing Maxey is going to be a big key in this series, and a significant challenge as well. Boston doesn't have very many places to attack on defense, and while Maxey is talented enough to have a big night or two over the course of this series, they're going to need him to be a consistent threat if they're going to win, especially if Embiid misses time and/or is significantly limited.
Part of that may come down to getting Maxey looks against an unset defense by getting out early in transition, something the Sixers failed to do at any point in the regular season series. In fact, the Sixers only ran on 9.4%, 13.6%, 11.7% and 6.9% of their possessions in the four games against Boston, per CleaningTheGlass, all of which were below (and frequently significantly below) the league average of 15%.
If the Sixers are confined to a half-court game, especially if Embiid's at 60% of normal, they're going to have a really tough time to score against this long, and fundamentally sound, Boston defense.
Predictions
Celtics in 6
25% chance the Sixers win.
Boston's good. Boston's really, really good, on both sides of the ball.
But they're not unbeatable.
Any time a team has the best player in the series they have a chance, and that's especially true when they surround him with as much shooting as the Sixers have. With the way that Embiid was playing defensively in the first round, combined with Boston not having any real way of slowing him down on offense, I thought the Sixers had a real shot in this series if Embiid was healthy. The gap between the two teams was hardly insurmountable.
A healthy Embiid, with no concerns over his availability and his mobility, and I'd probably pick the Celtics in 7, with the Sixers having a 45% or so chance of winning the series and advancing to their first Conference Finals in the Embiid era.
But Embiid's not healthy. It doesn't sound like he's going to be available tonight, I don't know when he is going to return to the lineup, and I don't know what he's going to look like when he does. And this is an opponent that will spread the floor and pick the Sixers apart if Embiid's even a step slow in his contests.
There's just too much uncertainty surrounding Embiid for me to pick the upset here.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; SeaHearNow Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Man, haha, they go hard on BBall Paul. But if you're gonna have that nickname - and you're filling in for the MVP of the league - rightfully so...Also, rightfully, I was going to fucking throw up during his last 4 free throws...
"Chewing out Bball Paul
If there was one point where it looked like the game was going to slip away from the Sixers, it was when the Celtics grabbed a pair of offensive rebounds on the same possession, leading to a Horford layup to give Boston a three point lead with a little over a minute left.
The Celtics had just six offensive rebounds up to that point in the game, but those two had a chance to be back breakers.
Part of the problem in that possession was that Paul Reed, the Sixers' starting center with Joel Embiid out of the game, sprinted out to contest a 3-point shot from Brogdon and was slow to recover, instead sort of watching the play from 35 feet away, drifting away like he was hoping for an outlet pass and an easy transition bucket. Reed would eventually get back into the play and try to contest Horford's layup, but he was too late.
Rivers called a timeout, and veteran PJ Tucker had a few words for Reed.
"I really thought Tuck was gonna grab P. Reed, like, out of his jersey," Maxey said. "And he said 'If you don't get the next two rebounds, then we're gonna have a conversation'. P. Reed got the next two rebounds, and it was like big brother, little brother."
"A couple guys really got into him (in the ensuing timeout), and it was close to excessive," Doc Rivers said. "I kept him in, I said 'Hey, go win the game. Go do something for us'."
The Sixers went to a Harden/Reed pick-and-roll on the very next possession, and Harden found Reed diving to the rim, with Reed drawing the foul and calmly stepping to the line to hit two massive free-throws. He made two more to ice the game with five seconds left.
"Last year, or just anybody in general, a young guy like Paul that (situation) could have gone the other way with him," Rivers said. "He just hung in there and made plays for us, and made free-throws. Just really proud of him."
"I was trying to get him (Tucker) to get out, so I can be the low man," Reed said of his conversation with Tucker during the timeout. "In professional sports, everybody wants to win and tensions get high. To remain cool, calm and collected when the tensions get high is the key. We got to stay together in moments like that. I was just glad we were able to stay together.""
I wouldn't risk him playing in game 1. If we win game 1, i probably would rest him in game 2 also.
I still think they should rest him for game 2. '
That game could have gone either way. Boston's shooting in the first half was pretty unbelievable I must admit. Luckily harden came up big for us!
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,298
edited May 2023
Well that was FUCKING awesome. Matched the intensity of a lot of those October Phils games as far as I am concerned. I feel as if they had lost last night, the chances of winning the series would have decreased significantly. Stealing game 1, without Jo, is just enormous.
BASKETBALL PAUL. Has name is literally the game. So proud of that kid.
If it were me, I think I would hold Jo out until Friday since we've already accomplished the goal of a split. However, I am hearing that he's definitely playing tomorrow. This was info from before last night's game so I'm not sure if the result changes things, but we shall see. I'm sure getting the MVP tonight will be extra motivation for him to want to play tomorrow.
I guess part of the speculation on Jo, too - and whether I feel confident when he comes back - is whether he's wearing a brace or not. I feel like if he's wearing some kind of brace when/if he comes back in game 2 then I'll feel better.
Comments
Kinda think it makes sense to sit him for at least the first one. But if they lose that, I don't think there's anyway he doesn't play in game 2.
But at minimum it seems like sitting him for Game 1 at the least would be best.
And the year with the Bucks eliminated too, Boston playing bad, and no juggernaut in the West. This coulda been it :(
2005: Calgary 9/4
2009: Calgary 8/8, San Diego 10/9
2011: Calgary 9/21, Edmonton 9/23, Vancouver 9/25
2012: Missoula 9/30
2013: Calgary 12/2
2014: Amsterdam1 6/16, Amsterdam2 6/17, Trieste 6/22, Berlin 6/26
2016: Ottawa 5/8, Toronto 5/10, Toronto2 5/12
2019: Dusseldorf 6/30 (EV)
2022: Sacramento 5/18
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly
WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16;
Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; SeaHearNow Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Chamberlain vs Russell. Erving vs Bird. Belinelli vs Tatum. Confetti vs the scoreboard.
The Sixers and Celtics have a longstanding rivalry that is up there with any in professional sports. That includes recent entries in 2018 and 2020, with Boston ending the Sixers' season with victories in the second and first round of those playoffs, respectively.
More important than the history between these two clubs is how this series could impact the future of the 76ers. From James Harden and his potential free agency this summer, to the legacies of Embiid, Harden, Rivers, and Morey, the Sixers have a real chance to rewrite the narrative surrounding this team if they're able to pull off a series win over their longtime nemesis.
Yet despite all of that, all anyone can talk about is the right knee of Joel Hans Embiid, a frustratingly familiar place that Sixers fans find themselves in. Will he be available for either of the two games in Boston? Once he returns, can he stay healthy for the rest of the series? How close to 100% will he be? Will we ever get an answer to the question of how far a healthy Joel Embiid can carry a team in the playoffs?
There's so much potential intrigue in this series, and all of that is clouded by the uncertainty around Embiid. Hopefully, Embiid comes back and looks like himself so we can move on and focus on the basketball at hand, without applying any asterisks. If not, it's going to be a monumental, uphill battle for the Sixers in this series.
Included in this post:
76ers vs Celtics playoff schedule
The regular season matchups
Statistical comparisons
Most of the team stats below are from CleaningTheGlass.com, with the exception of the pull-up and no-dribble stats in the final comparison. All stats in this section are from the regular season. Stats in bold are the team that performed better in the comparison.
76ers stats vs Celtics:
Celtics stats vs 76ers:
Keys to the series
What can Joel Embiid give you?
This one is obvious, but it's impossible to ignore.
Sunday at practice we saw Joel Embiid on the practice court for the first time this week, shooting stationary jumpers.
"He did a little bit more (today). Not much," Rivers said about Embiid's participation level at practice on Sunday. "He didn't do any running, or anything like that. Just did some shooting and stuff."
Rivers would go on to say that Joel Embiid is still doubtful for Game 1, but "he's improving daily." Embiid was officially listed as doubtful on today's injury report with a right knee sprain.
"There's some thought around this team that it's going to be a miracle if he ended up showing up tonight on the floor," Shams Charania said of Embiid in the video below.
The Sixers were able to take care of the Brooklyn Nets in Game 4 without Embiid, but they're up against a very different opponent here in the Boston Celtics, who have significantly more length on the perimeter, and depth off their bench. Boston has three guys in Tatum, Brown and Brogdon who they can trust to isolate and attack mismatches off the dribble, can draw in defenders and launch as many 3s as any team in the league, have eight players in their rotation that they can trust in virtually any matchup, are incredibly disciplined in getting back in transition and can switch most ball screens on the perimeter.
The Sixers had one equalizer: Joel Embiid.
The Celtics have typically avoided sending the hard, automatic, "just get the freaking ball out of his hands no matter what" kind of double teams that the Raptors and, this year, the Nets have used, instead opting to let Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown dig down from the top of the key, showing Embiid just enough length to try to disrupt him, while still being able to recover back out to shooters and run them off of the 3-point line before they fire off an open, high-value 3.
In the past the Celtics had big bodies (specifically think of Aron Baynes, here) who could stand Embiid up for just a split second on his initial move, giving Boston's perimeter players an extra second or two to try to time their double teams before Embiid was at the rim. But that's not the case anymore, and Embiid used that (along with the refinement in his face-up game) to his advantage and absolutely tore Boston apart in the regular season, averaging 36.8 points in 38.8 minutes per game and shooting 61.2% against the Celtics.
Boston tried a number of different defenders on Embiid, including guys like Blake Griffin and even Noah Vonleh earlier on in the season when they were hit by injury trouble (worth noting here: Robert Williams played in just one of the four games between these two teams). But the most consistent defenders on Embiid were Al Horford and Grant Williams. Neither even remotely slowed Embiid down, as Embiid averaged 60.6 points per 100 possessions and shot 64.3% against Horford this year, and averaged 47 points per 100 and shot 58.1% against Williams.
Boston almost concedes Embiid's dominance in part because they're able to recover to 3-point shooters, and they did a great job of limiting the Sixers' two high-volume 3-point shooters (Maxey and Niang) during the regular season. It's almost the exact opposite of Brooklyn's strategy in Round 1, and if the Sixers are going to overcome that, Embiid needs to absolutely eat as a scorer.
That window – where Embiid can attack Horford or Williams, before help gets there – isn't going to be open all that long. The longer Embiid holds the ball, the more daring Boston is going to get in changing up the timing of their double teams. If Embiid is indecisive, or if he doesn't have the first step or the quickness to attack the gaps, it might be tough for him to have as much success as he did in the regular season.
And, of course, there's the defense...
Stopping Boston's five-out offense
Boston's best lineups tend to feature Al Horford at the five, putting shooters on the floor at every position and allowing their perimeter players maximum space to operate. They can then run pick-and-rolls and dribble handoffs until they get the matchup they want to attack, and with some combination of Tatum, Brown, White and Brogdon on the floor, there's usually one (or multiple) matchups that Boston is confident they can exploit. That's going to be especially true against James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and the Philadelphia 76ers.
For the most part, the Sixers did a pretty good job of holding Tatum and Brown in (relative) check for the regular season series. Sure, Tatum and Brown each had 35 in Boston's opening night win, but the Sixers then held Tatum to under 20 points in each of the next three meetings, and he shot just 19-52 (36.5%) in those last three games.
But each of those three games in 2023 featured somebody other than the Jay's tearing the Sixers apart, whether it was Derrick White (19, 18 and 26 in the final three matchups) as a scorer or Malcolm Brogdon's drive-and-kick game. The Sixers just run out of viable defenders to match up with all of Boston's perimeter creators, especially when the floor is well-spaced.
I actually think the Sixers have a chance of competing decently well defensively in the game(s) that Embiid misses, as Paul Reed in a switching scheme can simplify the Sixers' defense, can help limit Boston's pull-up jumpers and possibly prevent the Sixers from getting into the kind of rotations that Boston's perimeter players can pick apart. Reed staying out of foul trouble, and out of Doc's dog house, will be a big key here.
But when Embiid does return, can he move laterally like he did before the injury? Can you bring him up closer to the level of the screen, or will Tatum, Brown, and Brogdon feast on uncontested pull-up jumpers? If the Sixers have to send help from the wings because Embiid can't contain the two-man game, can they recover in time to prevent Boston (42.6 3pta per 100 possessions, to just 33.3 for the Sixers) from absolutely dominating the math game?
This is probably the last series in the world you'd want Embiid to be operating at 60% of his normal athleticism, and it'll be a big test for everyone involved.
3-point shooting, and Tyrese Maxey
I mentioned above how the Celtics don't sell out to get the ball out of Embiid's hands, and that, combined with Boston's excellent perimeter defense in general, really limited the Sixers' 3-point shooters during the regular season matchup.
As a team the Sixers shot just 35.5% from 3-point range, on just 30.3 attempts per game, against the Celtics. That's not going to cut it, especially if Embiid's not able to drop 40 per night.
I won't focus too much on Georges Niang, who shot just 18.8% from the field and 16.7% from 3 in four games against the Celtics in the regular season, because quite honestly he shouldn't be in the rotation once Embiid returns to action.
The real key is Tyrese Maxey, whose attempts went from 6.2 3s per game overall to just 3.5 per game against the Celtics. That's not nearly enough. That's barely more than PJ Tucker (3.0 per game, although Boston all but runs away from Tucker in the corner, daring him to shoot).
Freeing Maxey is going to be a big key in this series, and a significant challenge as well. Boston doesn't have very many places to attack on defense, and while Maxey is talented enough to have a big night or two over the course of this series, they're going to need him to be a consistent threat if they're going to win, especially if Embiid misses time and/or is significantly limited.
Part of that may come down to getting Maxey looks against an unset defense by getting out early in transition, something the Sixers failed to do at any point in the regular season series. In fact, the Sixers only ran on 9.4%, 13.6%, 11.7% and 6.9% of their possessions in the four games against Boston, per CleaningTheGlass, all of which were below (and frequently significantly below) the league average of 15%.
If the Sixers are confined to a half-court game, especially if Embiid's at 60% of normal, they're going to have a really tough time to score against this long, and fundamentally sound, Boston defense.
Predictions
Boston's good. Boston's really, really good, on both sides of the ball.
But they're not unbeatable.
Any time a team has the best player in the series they have a chance, and that's especially true when they surround him with as much shooting as the Sixers have. With the way that Embiid was playing defensively in the first round, combined with Boston not having any real way of slowing him down on offense, I thought the Sixers had a real shot in this series if Embiid was healthy. The gap between the two teams was hardly insurmountable.
A healthy Embiid, with no concerns over his availability and his mobility, and I'd probably pick the Celtics in 7, with the Sixers having a 45% or so chance of winning the series and advancing to their first Conference Finals in the Embiid era.
But Embiid's not healthy. It doesn't sound like he's going to be available tonight, I don't know when he is going to return to the lineup, and I don't know what he's going to look like when he does. And this is an opponent that will spread the floor and pick the Sixers apart if Embiid's even a step slow in his contests.
There's just too much uncertainty surrounding Embiid for me to pick the upset here.
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly
Now just play defense ONCE you motherfuckers!
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly
KFC was extra crispy tonight. Turned the clock back 10 years.
WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16;
Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; SeaHearNow Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
"Chewing out Bball Paul
If there was one point where it looked like the game was going to slip away from the Sixers, it was when the Celtics grabbed a pair of offensive rebounds on the same possession, leading to a Horford layup to give Boston a three point lead with a little over a minute left.
The Celtics had just six offensive rebounds up to that point in the game, but those two had a chance to be back breakers.
Part of the problem in that possession was that Paul Reed, the Sixers' starting center with Joel Embiid out of the game, sprinted out to contest a 3-point shot from Brogdon and was slow to recover, instead sort of watching the play from 35 feet away, drifting away like he was hoping for an outlet pass and an easy transition bucket. Reed would eventually get back into the play and try to contest Horford's layup, but he was too late.
Rivers called a timeout, and veteran PJ Tucker had a few words for Reed.
"I really thought Tuck was gonna grab P. Reed, like, out of his jersey," Maxey said. "And he said 'If you don't get the next two rebounds, then we're gonna have a conversation'. P. Reed got the next two rebounds, and it was like big brother, little brother."
"A couple guys really got into him (in the ensuing timeout), and it was close to excessive," Doc Rivers said. "I kept him in, I said 'Hey, go win the game. Go do something for us'."
The Sixers went to a Harden/Reed pick-and-roll on the very next possession, and Harden found Reed diving to the rim, with Reed drawing the foul and calmly stepping to the line to hit two massive free-throws. He made two more to ice the game with five seconds left.
"Last year, or just anybody in general, a young guy like Paul that (situation) could have gone the other way with him," Rivers said. "He just hung in there and made plays for us, and made free-throws. Just really proud of him."
"I was trying to get him (Tucker) to get out, so I can be the low man," Reed said of his conversation with Tucker during the timeout. "In professional sports, everybody wants to win and tensions get high. To remain cool, calm and collected when the tensions get high is the key. We got to stay together in moments like that. I was just glad we were able to stay together.""
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly
BASKETBALL PAUL. Has name is literally the game. So proud of that kid.
If it were me, I think I would hold Jo out until Friday since we've already accomplished the goal of a split. However, I am hearing that he's definitely playing tomorrow. This was info from before last night's game so I'm not sure if the result changes things, but we shall see. I'm sure getting the MVP tonight will be extra motivation for him to want to play tomorrow.