Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

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  • static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    mickeyrat said:
    static111 said:
    Some people in my circle think we are heading for a banking crash.  I think they are being over reactive.  What do some of the Economics Wonks on here think.  It seems that the fed is guaranteeing all banking due to the failed SVB?  Which basically subsidizes all risk, but lets the gains still go to the investor class? Why don't we let banks fail like we do people and any other capitalistic enterprise? I don't know anything about this and I am not about to pul my money out of the banks, because if it really were to crash it would probably be worth less than paper.

    some articles I've read suggest the Fed raising rates as they have were a driver on top of bad decisions by that bank in particular. it also didnt help fuckstick rolling back certain regs .
    so much winning.
    If it was a result of Davos Donnie rolling back regulations you can be sure that there is a whole slew of people that will just see that as Biden blaming Trump for his shortcomings.  Do you have a link to the regs that would have stopped this that Donnie dearest may have rolled back
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • static111static111 Posts: 4,889

    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,422
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    static111 said:
    Some people in my circle think we are heading for a banking crash.  I think they are being over reactive.  What do some of the Economics Wonks on here think.  It seems that the fed is guaranteeing all banking due to the failed SVB?  Which basically subsidizes all risk, but lets the gains still go to the investor class? Why don't we let banks fail like we do people and any other capitalistic enterprise? I don't know anything about this and I am not about to pul my money out of the banks, because if it really were to crash it would probably be worth less than paper.

    some articles I've read suggest the Fed raising rates as they have were a driver on top of bad decisions by that bank in particular. it also didnt help fuckstick rolling back certain regs .
    so much winning.
    If it was a result of Davos Donnie rolling back regulations you can be sure that there is a whole slew of people that will just see that as Biden blaming Trump for his shortcomings.  Do you have a link to the regs that would have stopped this that Donnie dearest may have rolled back

    oh that was also a gop controled house/senate too...

    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    static111 said:
    Some people in my circle think we are heading for a banking crash.  I think they are being over reactive.  What do some of the Economics Wonks on here think.  It seems that the fed is guaranteeing all banking due to the failed SVB?  Which basically subsidizes all risk, but lets the gains still go to the investor class? Why don't we let banks fail like we do people and any other capitalistic enterprise? I don't know anything about this and I am not about to pul my money out of the banks, because if it really were to crash it would probably be worth less than paper.

    some articles I've read suggest the Fed raising rates as they have were a driver on top of bad decisions by that bank in particular. it also didnt help fuckstick rolling back certain regs .
    so much winning.
    If it was a result of Davos Donnie rolling back regulations you can be sure that there is a whole slew of people that will just see that as Biden blaming Trump for his shortcomings.  Do you have a link to the regs that would have stopped this that Donnie dearest may have rolled back
    Funny thing is, nobody remembers nor really cared when 15 banks failed under POOTWH. Dems are held to a much higher standard.

    https://www.bankrate.com/banking/list-of-failed-banks/
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,422

     
    Class action suit filed against Silicon Valley Bank parent
    By MICHELLE CHAPMAN
    10 mins ago

    A class action lawsuit is being filed against the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank, its CEO and its chief financial officer, saying that company didn't disclose the risks that future interest rate increases would have on its business.

    The lawsuit against SVB Financial Group, CEO Greg Becker and CFO Daniel Beck was filed in the U.S. district court for the Northern district of California. It is looking for unspecified damages to be awarded to those who invested in SVB between June 16, 2021 and March 10, 2023.

    The lawsuit from shareholders led by Chandra Vanipenta says some quarterly and annual financial reports from SVB didn't fully account for warnings from the Federal Reserve about interest rate hikes.

    In particular, the lawsuit said that annual reports for 2020 through 2022, “understated the risks posed to the company by not disclosing that likely interest rate hikes, as outlined by the Fed, had the potential to cause irrevocable damage to the company,” the lawsuit stated.

    It also claims that the company "failed to disclose that, if its investments were negatively affected by rising interest rates, it was particularly susceptible to a bank run.”

    The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has shaken the technology industry and worried small businesses and individuals with deposits at the financial institution. The Biden administration’s move guaranteeing all Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits above the insured limit of $250,000 per account has brought relief to some.

    Silicon Valley quickly established itself as the “go-to” spot for venture capitalists looking for financial partners more open to unconventional business proposals than its bigger, more established peers who still didn’t have a good grasp of technology.

    Venture capitalists set up their accounts at Silicon Valley Bank just as the tech industry started its boom and then advised the entrepreneurs that they funded to do the same.

    That cozy relationship came to an end when the bank disclosed a $1.8 billion loss on low-yielding bonds that were purchased before interest rates began to spike last year, raising alarms among its financially savvy customer base who used the fruits of technology to spread warnings that turned into a calamitous run on deposits.


    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • cincybearcatcincybearcat Posts: 16,072
    It's not difficult to understand why bank failures are back.  It is a direct reaction to the idiotic move by television executives removing "It's a Wonderful Life" from being broadcast on repeat over the holidays.  No one remembers George Bailey anymore...no one remembers that when a bell rings an angel gets his/her wings...and most importantly, no one remembers that the bank has loaned out your $ to help your neighbors and you should trust the process and not make a run on the bank.

    Hopefully holiday season 2023 will correct this grave error.
    hippiemom = goodness
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    static111 said:
    Some people in my circle think we are heading for a banking crash.  I think they are being over reactive.  What do some of the Economics Wonks on here think.  It seems that the fed is guaranteeing all banking due to the failed SVB?  Which basically subsidizes all risk, but lets the gains still go to the investor class? Why don't we let banks fail like we do people and any other capitalistic enterprise? I don't know anything about this and I am not about to pul my money out of the banks, because if it really were to crash it would probably be worth less than paper.

    some articles I've read suggest the Fed raising rates as they have were a driver on top of bad decisions by that bank in particular. it also didnt help fuckstick rolling back certain regs .
    so much winning.
    If it was a result of Davos Donnie rolling back regulations you can be sure that there is a whole slew of people that will just see that as Biden blaming Trump for his shortcomings.  Do you have a link to the regs that would have stopped this that Donnie dearest may have rolled back
    It's absolutely true that certain provisions of Dodd Frank were rolled back for banks under a certain managed asset threshold.  The argument was the cost of compliance (meaning the teams of people necessary to staff your regulatory teams) exceeded the systematic risk to the financial system that the bank represented.  Now whether the specific failure of SVB would have been avoided if that law wasn't passed is another question.  I have not seen anything saying that. 

    SVB's problem was pretty straightforward.  They invested too much cash in long term treasuries locking up the cash.  Depositors recognized that their money could do much more in other investment vehicles after all of the rate hikes, so they started withdrawing.  SVB had to sell treasuries at a loss to cover the withdrawals.  Moody's caught wind, downgraded them, and that created a massive run by the rest of the depositors.  That's a great recipe for collapse.  

    I think that other mid size banks could be at risk for a deposit run as well.  I know that a lot of commercial clients that work with mid size banks are looking to move their money to the big dogs (BAC, Chase, WF, etc.) because there is more confidence in their diversification strategies.  I think that's the contagion that the Fed is worried about.  Protecting everyone (not just the FDIC deposits) probably is going a long way in calming nerves.  
  • static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    static111 said:
    Some people in my circle think we are heading for a banking crash.  I think they are being over reactive.  What do some of the Economics Wonks on here think.  It seems that the fed is guaranteeing all banking due to the failed SVB?  Which basically subsidizes all risk, but lets the gains still go to the investor class? Why don't we let banks fail like we do people and any other capitalistic enterprise? I don't know anything about this and I am not about to pul my money out of the banks, because if it really were to crash it would probably be worth less than paper.

    some articles I've read suggest the Fed raising rates as they have were a driver on top of bad decisions by that bank in particular. it also didnt help fuckstick rolling back certain regs .
    so much winning.
    If it was a result of Davos Donnie rolling back regulations you can be sure that there is a whole slew of people that will just see that as Biden blaming Trump for his shortcomings.  Do you have a link to the regs that would have stopped this that Donnie dearest may have rolled back
    It's absolutely true that certain provisions of Dodd Frank were rolled back for banks under a certain managed asset threshold.  The argument was the cost of compliance (meaning the teams of people necessary to staff your regulatory teams) exceeded the systematic risk to the financial system that the bank represented.  Now whether the specific failure of SVB would have been avoided if that law wasn't passed is another question.  I have not seen anything saying that. 

    SVB's problem was pretty straightforward.  They invested too much cash in long term treasuries locking up the cash.  Depositors recognized that their money could do much more in other investment vehicles after all of the rate hikes, so they started withdrawing.  SVB had to sell treasuries at a loss to cover the withdrawals.  Moody's caught wind, downgraded them, and that created a massive run by the rest of the depositors.  That's a great recipe for collapse.  

    I think that other mid size banks could be at risk for a deposit run as well.  I know that a lot of commercial clients that work with mid size banks are looking to move their money to the big dogs (BAC, Chase, WF, etc.) because there is more confidence in their diversification strategies.  I think that's the contagion that the Fed is worried about.  Protecting everyone (not just the FDIC deposits) probably is going a long way in calming nerves.  
    Makes sense.  I understood the part about having invested the funds in longterm bonds and having everything stuck.  I mostly wanted to see just how big of a deal this is for "all of us" and if in fact this could be attributed to Trump roll backs as some are saying.  It sounds like it was poor management.  Hopefully this fully insured thing is a short term measure and not the way of doing business going forward.  I can't imagine subsidizing all risk and privatizing all reward would be a great strategy for stable economy that benefits all.

    The way some people talk it sounds like they want a full on stock market crash so they can fulfill some of their twisted fantasies.
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    Banks are fine.  Look at the bigger ones, they aren't hurting.

    We are currently building Chase's flagship building in Manhattan,.  They doubled its size while only gaining like 3 more floors.  They wanted it bigger than the Vanderbilt building to show who's is bigger.  Who owns the Vanderbilt building or rather the main tenant?  TD Bank.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    edited March 2023
    Banks are fine.  Look at the bigger ones, they aren't hurting.

    We are currently building Chase's flagship building in Manhattan,.  They doubled its size while only gaining like 3 more floors.  They wanted it bigger than the Vanderbilt building to show who's is bigger.  Who owns the Vanderbilt building or rather the main tenant?  TD Bank.
    I think Chase is the best run bank in the US, if not the world.  They don't make me nervous at all. 
    Post edited by mrussel1 on
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    static111 said:
    Some people in my circle think we are heading for a banking crash.  I think they are being over reactive.  What do some of the Economics Wonks on here think.  It seems that the fed is guaranteeing all banking due to the failed SVB?  Which basically subsidizes all risk, but lets the gains still go to the investor class? Why don't we let banks fail like we do people and any other capitalistic enterprise? I don't know anything about this and I am not about to pul my money out of the banks, because if it really were to crash it would probably be worth less than paper.

    some articles I've read suggest the Fed raising rates as they have were a driver on top of bad decisions by that bank in particular. it also didnt help fuckstick rolling back certain regs .
    so much winning.
    If it was a result of Davos Donnie rolling back regulations you can be sure that there is a whole slew of people that will just see that as Biden blaming Trump for his shortcomings.  Do you have a link to the regs that would have stopped this that Donnie dearest may have rolled back
    It's absolutely true that certain provisions of Dodd Frank were rolled back for banks under a certain managed asset threshold.  The argument was the cost of compliance (meaning the teams of people necessary to staff your regulatory teams) exceeded the systematic risk to the financial system that the bank represented.  Now whether the specific failure of SVB would have been avoided if that law wasn't passed is another question.  I have not seen anything saying that. 

    SVB's problem was pretty straightforward.  They invested too much cash in long term treasuries locking up the cash.  Depositors recognized that their money could do much more in other investment vehicles after all of the rate hikes, so they started withdrawing.  SVB had to sell treasuries at a loss to cover the withdrawals.  Moody's caught wind, downgraded them, and that created a massive run by the rest of the depositors.  That's a great recipe for collapse.  

    I think that other mid size banks could be at risk for a deposit run as well.  I know that a lot of commercial clients that work with mid size banks are looking to move their money to the big dogs (BAC, Chase, WF, etc.) because there is more confidence in their diversification strategies.  I think that's the contagion that the Fed is worried about.  Protecting everyone (not just the FDIC deposits) probably is going a long way in calming nerves.  
    Makes sense.  I understood the part about having invested the funds in longterm bonds and having everything stuck.  I mostly wanted to see just how big of a deal this is for "all of us" and if in fact this could be attributed to Trump roll backs as some are saying.  It sounds like it was poor management.  Hopefully this fully insured thing is a short term measure and not the way of doing business going forward.  I can't imagine subsidizing all risk and privatizing all reward would be a great strategy for stable economy that benefits all.

    The way some people talk it sounds like they want a full on stock market crash so they can fulfill some of their twisted fantasies.
    One thing to keep in mind is the positioning of "bail out". SVB wasn't bailed out,  it was the companies that used SVB as their bank that were bailed.  I'm not picking on you or your words around subsidizing risk.  At the end of the day SVB is gone.  Their people don't have jobs and their investors lost.  Making the deposits whole is good for the system,  although it is making a huge dent into the FDIC insurance fund. 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602


    Having your deposits in long term treasuries is bad.  Having your deposits centralized with fewer,  high net worth clients exasperates the risk. 
  • static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    static111 said:
    Some people in my circle think we are heading for a banking crash.  I think they are being over reactive.  What do some of the Economics Wonks on here think.  It seems that the fed is guaranteeing all banking due to the failed SVB?  Which basically subsidizes all risk, but lets the gains still go to the investor class? Why don't we let banks fail like we do people and any other capitalistic enterprise? I don't know anything about this and I am not about to pul my money out of the banks, because if it really were to crash it would probably be worth less than paper.

    some articles I've read suggest the Fed raising rates as they have were a driver on top of bad decisions by that bank in particular. it also didnt help fuckstick rolling back certain regs .
    so much winning.
    If it was a result of Davos Donnie rolling back regulations you can be sure that there is a whole slew of people that will just see that as Biden blaming Trump for his shortcomings.  Do you have a link to the regs that would have stopped this that Donnie dearest may have rolled back
    It's absolutely true that certain provisions of Dodd Frank were rolled back for banks under a certain managed asset threshold.  The argument was the cost of compliance (meaning the teams of people necessary to staff your regulatory teams) exceeded the systematic risk to the financial system that the bank represented.  Now whether the specific failure of SVB would have been avoided if that law wasn't passed is another question.  I have not seen anything saying that. 

    SVB's problem was pretty straightforward.  They invested too much cash in long term treasuries locking up the cash.  Depositors recognized that their money could do much more in other investment vehicles after all of the rate hikes, so they started withdrawing.  SVB had to sell treasuries at a loss to cover the withdrawals.  Moody's caught wind, downgraded them, and that created a massive run by the rest of the depositors.  That's a great recipe for collapse.  

    I think that other mid size banks could be at risk for a deposit run as well.  I know that a lot of commercial clients that work with mid size banks are looking to move their money to the big dogs (BAC, Chase, WF, etc.) because there is more confidence in their diversification strategies.  I think that's the contagion that the Fed is worried about.  Protecting everyone (not just the FDIC deposits) probably is going a long way in calming nerves.  
    Makes sense.  I understood the part about having invested the funds in longterm bonds and having everything stuck.  I mostly wanted to see just how big of a deal this is for "all of us" and if in fact this could be attributed to Trump roll backs as some are saying.  It sounds like it was poor management.  Hopefully this fully insured thing is a short term measure and not the way of doing business going forward.  I can't imagine subsidizing all risk and privatizing all reward would be a great strategy for stable economy that benefits all.

    The way some people talk it sounds like they want a full on stock market crash so they can fulfill some of their twisted fantasies.
    One thing to keep in mind is the positioning of "bail out". SVB wasn't bailed out,  it was the companies that used SVB as their bank that were bailed.  I'm not picking on you or your words around subsidizing risk.  At the end of the day SVB is gone.  Their people don't have jobs and their investors lost.  Making the deposits whole is good for the system,  although it is making a huge dent into the FDIC insurance fund. 
    So it was only people and companies that had money deposited and used SVB bank for general business practices that will receive funds in the amount of assets deposited and handled with the bank?  No executives will be getting their full salaries and no risky investments will be backed.  I ask because the reporting around this isn't very clear and you seem to work in the sector and maybe have a better idea of what is going on.  

    Personlly I believe that if you have any amount of money deposited in a bank that should the bank fail you will get that money back somehow.  Its the cases of making failed investments whole and bailing out executives with golden parachutes that I am more worried about.

    I take your statement as saying that those individuals and businesses that had money deposited with SVB will have the funds restored to them and that is the extent of the insurance?  

    Do you know if this infinity limit of deposit insurance is only for this crisis or if it is going to go on?  

    one last thing do you think this will have wider implications in the economy or that it will pretty much be a non event except to those employed directly by SVB?
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    mrussel1 said:


    Having your deposits in long term treasuries is bad.  Having your deposits centralized with fewer,  high net worth clients exasperates the risk. 
    This clears up a few things for sure.  Zero diversification. Huge long term investments with only high net worth clients.  A recipe for disaster.
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    From the NYT email blast. And I thought the FDIC was funded by the banks and not the taxpayers so that this "bailout" is not borne by the taxpayers? And as such, the banks will pay? However, I'm sure hits on the FDIC result in more banking fees as I'm sure premiums go up and they're going to increase their profits along with their costs.

    Good morning. Deregulation contributed to Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

    Stopping the fallout

    The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others — and the government’s rescue over the weekend — left many of us again rushing to understand the arcane details of the financial system. It can be maddeningly complex, so I want to use today’s newsletter to explain some of the basics.

    First, the latest: Bank stocks plummeted yesterday, hitting midsize and smaller institutions in particular. Other financial markets gyrated as well, despite U.S. policymakers’ emergency help for customers of the closed banks. “It didn’t put calm back in the system,” said my colleague Maureen Farrell, who covers business.

    Why does this matter to everyday Americans? After all, SVB is relatively small and most of us keep no money in it.

    The short answer is the potential for wider fallout. When banks collapse, other people sometimes fear that their own banks and investments will follow. Even healthy banks don’t keep enough cash on hand to pay out all depositors, so if too many people panic at once and pull out their money — a classic bank run — it could lead to broader financial and economic calamity. And that is what the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve are trying to stop: a financial crisis largely prompted by plunging confidence.

    The collapse

    How did we get to this point? To answer that, I need to dive into more detail about Silicon Valley Bank.

    As its name suggests, the bank portrayed itself as focused on the leading edge of technology. And it served thousands of tech firms. Yet SVB invested their money in something much less exciting, as Paul Krugman wrote: U.S. bonds, effectively I.O.U.s from the federal government.

    Because the federal government has always paid its bills, U.S. bonds are widely considered the safest investment. SVB’s experience shows there are moments when even these safe investments may not pay off. The details get technical, but they’re worth unpacking to understand what went wrong.

    Bonds are effectively money that the government borrows from buyers — the public — before paying them back later, with interest. Market conditions and the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, help determine that interest rate.
    When SVB bought bonds, interest rates were very low. Since then, the Federal Reserve, which sets certain influential rates, increased those to combat rising prices. Now, new bonds can carry interest multiple times higher than those SVB bought.

    Imagine, then, that you want to buy bonds today. You would want the newer bonds because they have a higher payout. So when SVB needed to sell bonds, to raise cash that it could use for its customers’ withdrawals, it could do so only for a discount, taking a loss.

    The bank failed to follow basic financial advice: Diversify your portfolio. “It’s not fraud,” said Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “But it’s an extremely risky, and obviously risky, strategy.”

    In the past few weeks, venture capitalists and other wealthy customers on social media and in private chats started discussing concerns that SVB could no longer pay its depositors. Some began to move their money out of the bank, and the situation spiraled quickly. “Once you start asking, ‘Are we having a bank run?,’ it’s too late,” my colleague David Enrich, a business editor, said.
    A regulatory failure

    Financial regulations are supposed to stop these kinds of crises. But Silicon Valley Bank’s problems were not caught until it was too late — which many experts say was a result of insufficient oversight. (Here’s what to know about how your own money is covered.)
    Under pressure from banks in 2018, Congress passed bipartisan legislation that Donald Trump signed into law shielding smaller banks, like SVB, from more stringent rules. The banks argued that they were so small that they posed little risk to the broader financial system.

    SVB’s collapse and the aftermath suggest the banks’ claims were wrong: Even smaller bank failures can threaten the financial system as a whole, prompting some experts — but not all — to call for the federal government to get more involved.

    Controlled slowdown

    To readers of this newsletter, the Federal Reserve’s involvement in containing the fallout of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse may be puzzling. The Fed, after all, has been raising interest rates to slow the economy. An economic slowdown inherently involves businesses, including banks, failing.
    The Fed’s concern is that the bank collapses could go too far and pose bigger systemic risks beyond SVB. Think of it this way: You can stop a runaway car by blowing out its tires, potentially causing a crash. But it would be better if the car stopped by simply braking. Officials are trying to get the economy to brake to a safer speed — one in which inflation isn’t so high.

    The economic slowdown that the Fed hopes for would still affect everyday Americans, in both lower prices and also potentially higher unemployment rates. But that outcome is better than an uncontrolled bank run that topples the financial system and takes the rest of the economy, and your 401(k), down with it.

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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    Banks pay into the FDIC. The statement that customers will bear the price through higher fees is speculative.  It's certainly possible if not probable that some banks will increase fees to pay for it.  It's also possible that some banks won't.   But pressing down increases in expenses to the consumer is true and possible for any business.  But remember some fees are heavily regulated and cannot go up.  For example,  late and overlimit fees are governed by the Card Act and everyone is already at the max.  
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    mrussel1 said:
    Banks pay into the FDIC. The statement that customers will bear the price through higher fees is speculative.  It's certainly possible if not probable that some banks will increase fees to pay for it.  It's also possible that some banks won't.   But pressing down increases in expenses to the consumer is true and possible for any business.  But remember some fees are heavily regulated and cannot go up.  For example,  late and overlimit fees are governed by the Card Act and everyone is already at the max.  
    I was referring to the mischaracterization that this is “a government/tax payer bailout.” It’s not, as the banks fund the FDIC via insurance premiums. However, you know the banks will raise the fees they can get away with if their premium costs increase. They’re not going to lose profits, right? Maybe there needs to be more regulation regarding mitigating risk and how heavily invested banks can be with their reserve portfolio, or have a consumer rating disclosure system that makes it easier to understand the bank’s financial security. Depositor beware, I suppose.
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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    static111 said:
    Some people in my circle think we are heading for a banking crash.  I think they are being over reactive.  What do some of the Economics Wonks on here think.  It seems that the fed is guaranteeing all banking due to the failed SVB?  Which basically subsidizes all risk, but lets the gains still go to the investor class? Why don't we let banks fail like we do people and any other capitalistic enterprise? I don't know anything about this and I am not about to pul my money out of the banks, because if it really were to crash it would probably be worth less than paper.

    some articles I've read suggest the Fed raising rates as they have were a driver on top of bad decisions by that bank in particular. it also didnt help fuckstick rolling back certain regs .
    so much winning.
    If it was a result of Davos Donnie rolling back regulations you can be sure that there is a whole slew of people that will just see that as Biden blaming Trump for his shortcomings.  Do you have a link to the regs that would have stopped this that Donnie dearest may have rolled back
    It's absolutely true that certain provisions of Dodd Frank were rolled back for banks under a certain managed asset threshold.  The argument was the cost of compliance (meaning the teams of people necessary to staff your regulatory teams) exceeded the systematic risk to the financial system that the bank represented.  Now whether the specific failure of SVB would have been avoided if that law wasn't passed is another question.  I have not seen anything saying that. 

    SVB's problem was pretty straightforward.  They invested too much cash in long term treasuries locking up the cash.  Depositors recognized that their money could do much more in other investment vehicles after all of the rate hikes, so they started withdrawing.  SVB had to sell treasuries at a loss to cover the withdrawals.  Moody's caught wind, downgraded them, and that created a massive run by the rest of the depositors.  That's a great recipe for collapse.  

    I think that other mid size banks could be at risk for a deposit run as well.  I know that a lot of commercial clients that work with mid size banks are looking to move their money to the big dogs (BAC, Chase, WF, etc.) because there is more confidence in their diversification strategies.  I think that's the contagion that the Fed is worried about.  Protecting everyone (not just the FDIC deposits) probably is going a long way in calming nerves.  
    Makes sense.  I understood the part about having invested the funds in longterm bonds and having everything stuck.  I mostly wanted to see just how big of a deal this is for "all of us" and if in fact this could be attributed to Trump roll backs as some are saying.  It sounds like it was poor management.  Hopefully this fully insured thing is a short term measure and not the way of doing business going forward.  I can't imagine subsidizing all risk and privatizing all reward would be a great strategy for stable economy that benefits all.

    The way some people talk it sounds like they want a full on stock market crash so they can fulfill some of their twisted fantasies.
    One thing to keep in mind is the positioning of "bail out". SVB wasn't bailed out,  it was the companies that used SVB as their bank that were bailed.  I'm not picking on you or your words around subsidizing risk.  At the end of the day SVB is gone.  Their people don't have jobs and their investors lost.  Making the deposits whole is good for the system,  although it is making a huge dent into the FDIC insurance fund. 
    So it was only people and companies that had money deposited and used SVB bank for general business practices that will receive funds in the amount of assets deposited and handled with the bank?  No executives will be getting their full salaries and no risky investments will be backed.  I ask because the reporting around this isn't very clear and you seem to work in the sector and maybe have a better idea of what is going on.  

    Personlly I believe that if you have any amount of money deposited in a bank that should the bank fail you will get that money back somehow.  Its the cases of making failed investments whole and bailing out executives with golden parachutes that I am more worried about.

    I take your statement as saying that those individuals and businesses that had money deposited with SVB will have the funds restored to them and that is the extent of the insurance?  

    Do you know if this infinity limit of deposit insurance is only for this crisis or if it is going to go on?  

    one last thing do you think this will have wider implications in the economy or that it will pretty much be a non event except to those employed directly by SVB?
    1. My understanding is that the only thing guaranteed other than the normal FDIC under 250k was deposits above that mark.  That would include the many commercial accounts SVB had.  That was the extent of the announcement that was made Sunday night by the Fed.  And they were forced to move quickly because they had to beat the opening of Asian markets.  I have read nothing about any employees or executives being compensated.  In fact, teh DOJ opened an investigation today into the sale of shares by execs in the past few weeks.  

    2.  The FDIC fund is going to be significantly depleted by them covering all of these deposits.  Banks will have to replenish it. 

    3.  Your last question is the good one.  If the Fed didn't guarantee the deposits, you would have seen a run on several more mid size and regional banks.  Companies would rush to move money to safer banks like WF, Chase, etc.  That could have been a huge disaster.  I don't know if we are out of the woods, but I think the fed will have to be cautious about raising rates again, particularly with inflation cooling.  
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,937
    And now we know that KPMG was the auditor for SVB. Not only do we have a regulatory failure but again the auditor's issued clean opinions when they should have pointed out concerns.

    https://news.bloombergtax.com/financial-accounting/kpmg-gave-no-auditor-warning-before-back-to-back-bank-failures
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  • mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,422

     
    Fed raises key rate by quarter-point despite bank turmoil
    By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
    Today

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve extended its year-long fight against high inflation Wednesday by raising its key interest rate by a quarter-point despite concerns that higher borrowing rates could worsen the turmoil that has gripped the banking system.

    At a news conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sought to reassure Americans that it is safe to leave money in their banks, two weeks after a rush of depositors pulled funds from Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed in the second-biggest bank failure in U.S. history. Signature Bank fell soon afterward.

    “We have the tools to protect depositors when there’s a threat of serious harm to the economy or to the financial system,” Powell said. “Depositors should assume that their deposits are safe.”

    The Fed chair also underscored that the central bank remains focused on fighting high inflation, which could require additional rate hikes. Yet he also signaled that the Fed might not need to impose many more increases if more banks were to reduce their lending to conserve cash. This could lead to slower growth, hiring and inflation, Powell said.

    The Fed “is trying to have its cake and eat it too,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of rates strategy at the investment bank Societe Generale. “They wanted to show a bias towards hiking but didn’t want to actually commit to more hikes.”

    In fact, the Fed also signaled that it could be nearing the end of its aggressive streak of rate increases. In its policy statement, it removed language that had previously said it would keep raising rates at future meetings. The statement now says “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” — a weaker commitment to tightening credit.

    And in their latest quarterly economic projections, the policymakers forecast that they expect to raise their key rate just once more — from its new level of about 4.9% to 5.1%, the same peak they had projected in December.

    Still, the Fed's statement included some language that indicated that its inflation fight remains far from complete. It noted that “inflation remains elevated,” and it removed a phrase, “inflation has eased somewhat,” that was in its February statement.

    “The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy," Powell said.

    Despite the Fed’s projection that it will impose only one more rate hike, Powell also said the central bank could still carry out additional hikes if inflation remained chronically high. Inflation was 6% in February compared with a year ago, far above the Fed's 2% target.

    If banks do pull back on lending in the coming months, that could slow the economy and possibly act as the equivalent of an additional quarter-point rate hike, Powell said. In other words, the problems in the banking sector could do some of the Fed's work for it by slowing the economy and cooling inflation.

    “Events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses," the Fed chair said. “It is too soon to determine the extent of these effects and therefore too soon” for the Fed to know how or whether its plans for interest rates might be affected.

    Wednesday's rate hike, the Fed's ninth since last March, suggests that Powell is confident that the Fed can manage a dual challenge: Cool still-high inflation through higher loan rates while defusing turmoil in the banking sector through emergency lending programs and the Biden administration’s decision to cover uninsured deposits at the two failed banks.

    Pressed at his news conference about the Fed's missing what observers say were clear signs that Silicon Valley Bank was at high risk of collapsing into the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, Powell acknowledged that “we do need to strengthen supervision and regulation."

    But he declared the overall banking system secure, saying, "These are not weaknesses that are there at all broadly through the system.”

    Powell promised that he would not involve himself in the Fed's investigation into its supervisory and regulatory failures regarding Silicon Valley, which was announced last week. It will be led by the central bank's vice chair for supervision, Michael Barr.

    With Wednesday's hike, the Fed's benchmark short-term rate has reached its highest level in 16 years. The new level will likely lead to higher costs for many loans, from mortgages and auto purchases to credit cards and corporate borrowing. The succession of Fed rate hikes have also heightened the risk of a recession.

    The Fed’s latest policy decision reflects an abrupt shift. Early this month, Powell had told a Senate panel that the Fed was considering raising its rate by a substantial half-point. At the time, hiring and consumer spending had strengthened more than expected. Inflation data had also been revised higher.

    The troubles that suddenly erupted in the banking sector two weeks ago likely led to the Fed’s decision to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter-point rather than a half-point.

    Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were both brought down, indirectly, by higher rates, which pummeled the value of the Treasurys and other bonds they owned. As depositors withdrew money en masse, the banks had to sell the bonds at a loss to pay the depositors. They couldn't raise enough cash to do so.

    After the fall of the two banks, Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS. Another struggling bank, First Republic, has received large deposits from its rivals in a show of support, though its share price plunged Monday before stabilizing.

    Other major central banks are also seeking to tame high inflation without worsening financial instability. Even with the anxieties surrounding the global banking system, for instance, the Bank of England faces pressure to approve an 11th straight rate hike Thursday.

    And the European Central Bank, saying Europe’s banking sector was resilient, last week raised its benchmark rate by a half point to combat inflation of 8.5%. At the same time, the ECB president, Christine Lagarde, has shifted to an open-ended stance regarding further rate increases

    In the United States, most recent data still points to a solid economy and strong hiring. Employers added a robust 311,000 jobs in February. And while the unemployment rate rose, from 3.4% to a still-low 3.6%, that mostly reflected an influx of new job-seekers who were not immediately hired. In its latest quarterly projections, the Fed predicts that the unemployment rate will rise from its current 3.6% to 4.5% by year's end.


    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

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  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    So 1/4 point up because the jobs report was so good.  Jeezus.  No one will be buying any big ticket items in the future.

    Also Amazon is laying off another 8000 workers.  The storm is coming, the fed hasn’t screwed it up enough yet.
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    So 1/4 point up because the jobs report was so good.  Jeezus.  No one will be buying any big ticket items in the future.

    Also Amazon is laying off another 8000 workers.  The storm is coming, the fed hasn’t screwed it up enough yet.
    Because the fed runs Amazon or Bozos? 
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  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    edited March 2023
    In my lifetime, in ‘Murica, I will have witnessed greed take possession of health care, education, housing, energy, media, retail, personal information, space and now, one of the elements essential to life, perhaps way more than the others. Keep hoping for billionaires to solve your problems or provide “essentials.”

    Unfettered greed, it’s a great thing.

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/22/business/southwest-water-colorado-river-wall-street-climate/index.html

    PS: did you see what Elongitaint wanted to do with his Boring waste in Tejas? Yup, he deserves another tax break or three, fer sure.
    Post edited by Halifax2TheMax on
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  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    So 1/4 point up because the jobs report was so good.  Jeezus.  No one will be buying any big ticket items in the future.

    Also Amazon is laying off another 8000 workers.  The storm is coming, the fed hasn’t screwed it up enough yet.
    Because the fed runs Amazon or Bozos? 
    Nothing has one to do with the other.  It's funny that the jobs report was good and Amazon is still laying off.

    This has been about 80,000 jobs lost by big tech these past few months.
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    So 1/4 point up because the jobs report was so good.  Jeezus.  No one will be buying any big ticket items in the future.

    Also Amazon is laying off another 8000 workers.  The storm is coming, the fed hasn’t screwed it up enough yet.
    Because the fed runs Amazon or Bozos? 
    Nothing has one to do with the other.  It's funny that the jobs report was good and Amazon is still laying off.

    This has been about 80,000 jobs lost by big tech these past few months.
    Maybe because folks are enjoying their freedumbs and going to brick and mortar stores?

    Have you used bozos platform or website recently? Garbage. Hasn’t reinvested a dime. But let’s give him another tax break or three.
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  • nicknyr15nicknyr15 Posts: 7,639
    So 1/4 point up because the jobs report was so good.  Jeezus.  No one will be buying any big ticket items in the future.

    Also Amazon is laying off another 8000 workers.  The storm is coming, the fed hasn’t screwed it up enough yet.
    Because the fed runs Amazon or Bozos? 
    Nothing has one to do with the other.  It's funny that the jobs report was good and Amazon is still laying off.

    This has been about 80,000 jobs lost by big tech these past few months.
    Maybe because folks are enjoying their freedumbs and going to brick and mortar stores?

    Have you used bozos platform or website recently? Garbage. Hasn’t reinvested a dime. But let’s give him another tax break or three.
    I mean I use it daily. For me it’s not even close. Great prices, fastest shipping and the absolute best customer service, especially when compared to any other big business.  But that’s my opinion and experience. I’ve been using them since 2006. 
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    nicknyr15 said:
    So 1/4 point up because the jobs report was so good.  Jeezus.  No one will be buying any big ticket items in the future.

    Also Amazon is laying off another 8000 workers.  The storm is coming, the fed hasn’t screwed it up enough yet.
    Because the fed runs Amazon or Bozos? 
    Nothing has one to do with the other.  It's funny that the jobs report was good and Amazon is still laying off.

    This has been about 80,000 jobs lost by big tech these past few months.
    Maybe because folks are enjoying their freedumbs and going to brick and mortar stores?

    Have you used bozos platform or website recently? Garbage. Hasn’t reinvested a dime. But let’s give him another tax break or three.
    I mean I use it daily. For me it’s not even close. Great prices, fastest shipping and the absolute best customer service, especially when compared to any other big business.  But that’s my opinion and experience. I’ve been using them since 2006. 
    What are you comparing it to when you say, “any other big business?”
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  • nicknyr15nicknyr15 Posts: 7,639
    edited March 2023
    nicknyr15 said:
    So 1/4 point up because the jobs report was so good.  Jeezus.  No one will be buying any big ticket items in the future.

    Also Amazon is laying off another 8000 workers.  The storm is coming, the fed hasn’t screwed it up enough yet.
    Because the fed runs Amazon or Bozos? 
    Nothing has one to do with the other.  It's funny that the jobs report was good and Amazon is still laying off.

    This has been about 80,000 jobs lost by big tech these past few months.
    Maybe because folks are enjoying their freedumbs and going to brick and mortar stores?

    Have you used bozos platform or website recently? Garbage. Hasn’t reinvested a dime. But let’s give him another tax break or three.
    I mean I use it daily. For me it’s not even close. Great prices, fastest shipping and the absolute best customer service, especially when compared to any other big business.  But that’s my opinion and experience. I’ve been using them since 2006. 
    What are you comparing it to when you say, “any other big business?”
    Cable , internet, AT&T , utilities, any other big name merchant, NIKE, TICKETMASTER ,  just a few that come to mind that  I’ve had to deal with personally. It’s always an ordeal. Anytime I’ve called Amazon, I’m on the phone with a rep quickly and done in no time. 
    Post edited by nicknyr15 on
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    nicknyr15 said:
    So 1/4 point up because the jobs report was so good.  Jeezus.  No one will be buying any big ticket items in the future.

    Also Amazon is laying off another 8000 workers.  The storm is coming, the fed hasn’t screwed it up enough yet.
    Because the fed runs Amazon or Bozos? 
    Nothing has one to do with the other.  It's funny that the jobs report was good and Amazon is still laying off.

    This has been about 80,000 jobs lost by big tech these past few months.
    Maybe because folks are enjoying their freedumbs and going to brick and mortar stores?

    Have you used bozos platform or website recently? Garbage. Hasn’t reinvested a dime. But let’s give him another tax break or three.
    I mean I use it daily. For me it’s not even close. Great prices, fastest shipping and the absolute best customer service, especially when compared to any other big business.  But that’s my opinion and experience. I’ve been using them since 2006. 
    Love Amazon. 

    I read an interesting article about Meta and their job cuts.  Turns out they hired thousands when they didn't need them.  The people did zero work.  They were hired to prevent other companies from hiring them.  Now these people are out.  I would guess this strategy was prevalent in the computer engineering world. 
  • nicknyr15nicknyr15 Posts: 7,639
    mrussel1 said:
    nicknyr15 said:
    So 1/4 point up because the jobs report was so good.  Jeezus.  No one will be buying any big ticket items in the future.

    Also Amazon is laying off another 8000 workers.  The storm is coming, the fed hasn’t screwed it up enough yet.
    Because the fed runs Amazon or Bozos? 
    Nothing has one to do with the other.  It's funny that the jobs report was good and Amazon is still laying off.

    This has been about 80,000 jobs lost by big tech these past few months.
    Maybe because folks are enjoying their freedumbs and going to brick and mortar stores?

    Have you used bozos platform or website recently? Garbage. Hasn’t reinvested a dime. But let’s give him another tax break or three.
    I mean I use it daily. For me it’s not even close. Great prices, fastest shipping and the absolute best customer service, especially when compared to any other big business.  But that’s my opinion and experience. I’ve been using them since 2006. 
    Love Amazon. 

    I read an interesting article about Meta and their job cuts.  Turns out they hired thousands when they didn't need them.  The people did zero work.  They were hired to prevent other companies from hiring them.  Now these people are out.  I would guess this strategy was prevalent in the computer engineering world. 
    Jeez what a scummy move 
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