Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

mickeyrat

https://www.propublica.org/article/irs-files-taxes-wash-sales-goldman-sachs?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social

How the Wealthy Save Billions in Taxes by Skirting a Century-Old Law

by Paul Kiel and Jeff Ernsthausen

29 - 37 minutes

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At first glance, July 24, 2015, seems to have been a brutal trading day for Steve Ballmer, the former Microsoft CEO. He dumped hundreds of stocks, losing at least $28 million.

But this was no panicked sell-off. Among the stocks Ballmer sold were those of the Australian mining company BHP and the global oil giant Shell. Had Ballmer lost confidence in BHP’s management? Was he betting that the price of oil would not soon recover? Not at all. That very day, Ballmer also bought thousands of shares in BHP and Shell.

Why would he sell and buy shares in the same companies on the same day? The answer is counterintuitive to the average person but obvious to a sophisticated investor: A loss, for tax purposes, is valuable; a big one can wipe out millions in potential taxes. Ballmer’s two-step process allowed him to use the loss to lower his taxes, while the near-simultaneous purchase meant he effectively hadn’t changed his investment.

Since 1921, claiming tax losses from so-called wash sales — selling shares of a company then buying them again within a short period — has been forbidden. But Ballmer collected his losses anyway because, technically, the types of shares he bought and sold weren’t the same.

Both Shell and BHP offered two different versions of their common stock. For each company, the two stocks were legally distinct, but they performed very similarly because, after all, they were shares in the same company.

Ballmer’s not-so-bad day, in fact, was carefully planned, part of a strategy by Goldman Sachs, which conducted the trades on Ballmer’s behalf, to wield the stock market’s natural volatility to the billionaire’s advantage. At Goldman, the hundreds of stocks in Ballmer’s “Tax Advantaged Loss Harvesting” accounts were selected to follow the movement of the broader markets. Over time, the markets, as they had historically, would buoy Ballmer’s investments upward. When, inevitably, some of the stocks underperformed or the whole market dipped, Goldman was ready to pounce, selling off the losers and replacing them with equivalents.

continues....

mickeyrat

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-system-business-cb7f80cdf0a55088a85cc3da20a8b155

  

Inflation Federal Reserve System

US inflation likely eased again last month if more gradually

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

Today

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. inflation likely slowed again last month in the latest sign that consumer price increases are becoming less of a burden on America's households. But Tuesday's report from the government may also suggest that further progress in taming inflation could be slow and “bumpy,” as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has described it.

Consumer prices are expected to have risen 6.2% in January from 12 months earlier, down from a 6.5% year-over-year surge in December. It would amount to the seventh straight slowdown.

On a monthly basis, though, inflation is expected to have jumped 0.5% from December to January, according to a survey of economists by the data provider FactSet. That would be much faster than the 0.1% uptick from November to December.

So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation, are also expected to have slowed on a 12-month basis. They are forecast to have increased 5.5% in January from a year earlier, down from a 5.7% year-over-year rise in December.

But for January alone, economists estimate that core prices jumped 0.4% for a second straight month — roughly equivalent to a 5% annual pace, far above the Fed's target of 2%.

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INFLATION

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“The process of getting inflation down has begun,” Powell said in remarks last week. But “this process is likely to take quite a bit of time. It’s not going to be, we don’t think, smooth, it’s probably going to be bumpy.”

Average gasoline prices, which had declined in five of the past six months through December, likely rose about 3.5% in January, according to an estimate from Nationwide. Food prices are also expected to have risen, though more slowly than the huge spikes of last summer and fall.

On a brighter note, clothing and airfare costs are thought to have barely budged from December to January. And economists have estimated that hotel room prices fell sharply.

Overall, the government's inflation report will likely show the continuation of a pattern that has emerged in recent months: The costs of goods — ranging from furniture and clothing to toys and sporting goods — are falling. But the prices of services — restaurant meals, entertainment events, dental care and the like — are rising faster than they did before the pandemic struck and threaten to keep inflation elevated.

Goods have become less expensive because supply chain snarls that had inflated prices after the pandemic erupted in 2020 have unraveled. And Americans are shifting much of their spending toward services, after having splurged on items like furniture and exercise equipment during the pandemic.

Yet average wages are rising at a brisk pace of about 5% from a year ago. Those pay gains, spread across the economy, are likely inflating prices in labor-intensive services. Powell has often pointed to robust wage increases as a factor that's driving up services prices and keeping inflation high even as other categories, like rent, are likely to decelerate in price.

The Biden White House last week calculated a measure of wages in service industries excluding housing — the sector of the economy that Powell and the Fed are most closely tracking. The administration's Council of Economic Advisers concluded that wages in those industries for workers, excluding managers, soared 8% last January from a year earlier but have since slowed to about a 5% annual pace.

That suggests that services inflation could soon slow, especially if the trend continued. Still, wage gains of that level are still too high for the Fed's liking. The central bank's officials would prefer to see wage growth of about 3.5%, which they see as consistent with their 2% inflation target.

A key question for the economy this year is whether unemployment would have to rise significantly to achieve that slowdown in wage growth. Powell and other Fed officials have said that curbing high inflation would require some “pain” for workers. Higher unemployment typically reduces pressure on businesses to pay bigger wages and salaries.

Yet for now, the job market remains historically very strong. Earlier this month, the government reported that employers added 517,000 jobs in January — nearly twice December's gain. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969. Job openings remain high.

Powell said last week that the jobs data was “certainly stronger than anyone I know expected," and suggested that if such healthy readings were to continue, more rate hikes than are now expected could be necessary.

Other Fed officials, speaking last week, stressed their belief that more interest rate increases are on the way. The Fed foresees two more quarter-point rate hikes, at its March and May meetings. Those increases would raise its benchmark rate to a range of 5% to 5.25%, the highest level in 15 years.

The Fed lifted its key rate by a quarter-point when it last met on Feb. 1, after carrying out a half-point hike in December and four three-quarter-point increases before that.

The financial markets envision two more rate increases this year and don't expect the Fed to reverse course and cut rates until sometime in 2024. For now, those expectations have ended a standoff between the Fed and Wall Street investors, who had previously been betting that the Fed would be forced to cut rates in 2023 as inflation fell faster than expected and the economy weakened.

tempo_n_groove

Now if the markets for new cars keeps going down maybe the prices will too...

mickeyrat

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-business-727cf4baffceeadc82c3c3297deb6ddc

 

Inflation Iowa New York City Economy

CBO projects higher unemployment, slow exit from inflation

By FATIMA HUSSEIN, JOSH BOAK and KEVIN FREKING

Yesterday

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that it expects the U.S. economy to stagnate this year with the unemployment rate jumping to 5.1% — a bleak outlook that was paired with a 10-year projection that publicly held U.S. debt would nearly double to $46.4 trillion in 2033.

The office's updated 10-year Budget and Economic Outlook outlined stark expectations for the decade ahead, where Social Security would be unable to pay full benefits to recipients in 2032 — with a roughly 20 percent reduction in benefits across the board — and the net interest costs on U.S. debt would eclipse what the nation spends on defense.

“The debt trajectory is unsustainable,” CBO director Phillip Swagel told journalists at a press conference after the report's afternoon release. The CBO can't tell Congress what to do, he said, ”but at some point, something has to give — whether it’s on spending or revenue."

The latest figures seemed to affirm the worst fears of many U.S. consumers and businesses. But in a reminder that the U.S. economy has seldom behaved as anticipated through the pandemic and its aftermath, the employment forecast looks very different from the pace of hiring so far this year.

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INFLATION

Wall Street sinks on worries about high inflation, rates

Wholesale price pressures emerge despite long-term slowdown

Plunging natural gas prices relieve inflation pressure

Retail sales jump as Americans defy inflation and rate hikes

The CBO estimated that just 108,000 jobs will be added in 2023, but employers added 517,000 jobs in January alone. It also assumes that inflation will ease from 6.4% to 4.8% this year, far more pessimistic than Federal Reserve officials who in December said inflation would fall to 3.5%.

The CBO separately pointed to the risks of not increasing the government's legal borrowing authority, noting that the Treasury Department could exhaust its current “extraordinary measures” to keep the government running while President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy jostle over a deal.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote to congressional leadership last month, stating that her agency will use creative accounting measures to buy time until Congress can pass legislation that will either raise the nation’s $31.4 trillion borrowing authority or suspend it again for a period of time.

If tax receipts from this year’s filing season fall short of estimated amounts, the U.S. could hit its statutory debt ceiling earlier than July, according to the nonpartisan organization, which provides independent analyses of budget and economic issues to Congress.

Following the CBO issuing its report, Senate Democrats reiterated their calls for Republicans to help pass legislation to increase the nation’s borrowing authority. Then, they said, lawmakers could turn their attention to funding the government and addressing the solvency of Medicare and Social Security.

“We don’t want to cut benefits. We don’t want to privatize. We don’t want to do the kinds of things that Republicans have talked about in that area,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said of Social Security. “And we have some plans to make it solvent, which you’ll hear from down the road.”

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, said the report “paints a dire picture.”

“If we don’t get serious about reining in spending, reducing annual budget deficits and bringing down the debt, the country will end up spending more on interest payments than the programs that actually benefit Americans,” Grassley said.

The outlook warns about rising yearly budget deficits. In 2033, the CBO anticipates that the yearly shortfall in tax revenues relative to spending would exceed $2.85 trillion, more than double the deficit in 2022. Publicly held debt was roughly equal to U.S. gross domestic product in 2022, but it would climb to 118% of GDP by 2033.

The office says the biggest drivers of rising debt in relation to GDP are increasing interest costs and spending for Medicare and Social Security.

The two parties also engaged in blaming the other side for the rising deficit projections. Republicans blamed Democrats for spending too much during the Biden presidency and Democrats blamed Republican for the tax cuts undertaken during the Trump presidency.

“Biden’s numerous bailouts and massive government expansion disguised as COVID relief has blown out spending and exacerbated our debt disaster,” said Rep. Jodey Arrington, the Republican chairman of the House Budget Committee. “House Republicans must rein-in the unbridled spending and restore fiscal sanity in Washington before it’s too late.”

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, said Republicans “deliberately” made the deficit worse during the Trump presidency with “massive revenue losses because they lowered tax rates for their corporate and billionaire friends and donors.”

One reason why the CBO expects a slowdown this year are the actions taken by the Fed. The U.S. central bank has been trying to reduce inflation by raising its benchmark interest rates. Earlier this month the Fed raised its key interest rate a quarter-point, its eighth hike since March of last year.

The CBO expects growth to pick up once the Fed has tamed inflation and pulls back on its benchmark rates.

mickeyrat

act like a company, you should be tax exempt no?

https://apnews.com/article/mormonism-us-securities-and-exchange-commission-religion-business-a598c9ef9544f57e0b60d5ca80774bf7

 

Southeastern Conference Mormonism U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

Mormon church fined for obscuring $32 billion investment portfolio

By SAM METZ

Yesterday

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and its investment arm have been fined $5 million for using shell companies to obscure the size of the portfolio under church control, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced Tuesday.

The faith, widely known as the Mormon church, maintains billions of dollars of investments in stocks, bonds, real estate and agriculture. Much of its portfolio is controlled by Ensign Peak Advisers, a nonprofit investment manager overseen by ecclesiastical leaders known as its presiding bishopric.

The church has agreed to pay $1 million and Ensign Peak will pay $4 million in penalties based on the violation.

Ensign Peak avoided disclosing investments “with the church’s knowledge,” denying the SEC and the public of accurate information required under law, Gurbir Grewal, the agency’s enforcement director, said in a statement.

Federal investigators said for a period of 22 years, the firm violated agency rules and the Securities Exchange Act by not filing paperwork required that disclosed the value of its assets.

Instead, they said Ensign Peak filed the forms through 13 shell companies they created, even as they maintained decision-making power. They also had “business managers,” most employed by the church, sign the required shell company filings.

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POLITICS

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New estimate U.S. could face default on debt by early June

“The Church was concerned that disclosure of its portfolio, which by 2018 grew to approximately $32 billion, would lead to negative consequences,” the SEC said in a statement announcing the charges.

Increasingly, the church and its Salt Lake City-based investment arm have faced scrutiny over the fact that tax law largely exempts religious groups from paying U.S. taxes. Ensign Peak is registered as a supporting organization and integrated auxiliary of the church. Investment managers of its size are required to report stockholdings quarterly.

It gained traction in 2019 when a whistleblower alleged the church had stockpiled nearly $100 billion in funds, rather than directing it toward charitable causes. Ensign Peak has since been a source of intrigue and mystery for the nearly 17-million member Utah-based faith, which encourages members worldwide to give 10% of their income in a what is known as “tithing.”

Two years later, prominent church member James Huntsman filed a lawsuit against the church alleging it misrepresented how it used donations and, rather than direct them to charitable causes, invested in assets including real estate and an insurance business. A judge dismissed the complaint last year and Huntsman later appealed the decision.

Earlier this month, the 2019 whistleblower, a former Ensign Peak investment manager named David Nielsen, submitted a 90-page memorandum to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee demanding oversight into the church's finances.

In a statement, church officials said over the time period investigated, none of their holdings had gone unreported and all had been disclosed through the separate companies. They said they had “relied upon legal counsel regarding how to comply with its reporting obligations while attempting to maintain the privacy of the portfolio" and noted that Ensign Peak had changed its reporting approach after learning of the SEC's concerns in 2019.

“We affirm our commitment to comply with the law, regret mistakes made, and now consider this matter closed,” they said.

Sam Brunson, a church member and tax law professor at Loyola University Chicago, said the $5 million fine differed from past accusations leveled against Ensign Peak because the church appears to have admitted some fault.

A failure to fill out SEC paperwork may not fuel broader conversations about how the church manages its money, he said, yet it reflects an “incredibly aggressive” strategy to keep certain information from the public.

“For the last 70 years or so, the Mormon Church has had an ethos of keeping its finances private,” Brunson said.

mickeyrat

https://apnews.com/article/united-states-government-economy-business-cdc78b4b47af71113a2e97784fd60bdd

 

Inflation United States government Economy

US revises down last quarter's economic growth to 2.7% rate

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

Yesterday

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.7% annual rate from October through December, a solid showing despite rising interest rates and elevated inflation, the government said Thursday in a downgrade from its initial estimate.

The government had previously estimated that the economy grew at a 2.9% annual rate last quarter.

The Commerce Department's revised estimate of the fourth quarter's gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — marked a deceleration from the 3.2% growth rate from July through September.

Thursday's report revised down the government's estimate of consumer spending growth in the October-December quarter, from a 2.1% rate to 1.4%. That was the weakest such showing since the first quarter of last year.

Business spending also slowed in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the economy lost momentum at the end of 2022.

More recent data, though, shows that the economy has since rebounded. Consumers boosted retail sales in January by the most in nearly two years, and employers added a surprisingly outsize number of jobs. The unemployment rate reached 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.

Some of the surprisingly strong economic gains in January likely reflected much warmer-than-usual weather. Few economists expect similar outsize gains in hiring or spending in the coming months. Most analysts think growth is slowing to a roughly 2% annual rate in the current January-March quarter.

---

INFLATION

BOJ chief-to-be answers to lawmakers as Japan prices soar

Average long-term US mortgage rate jumps to 6.5% this week

Reality bites as Wall Street's rate cut dream disappears

EU dampens Bulgaria's hopes of joining eurozone before 2025

And the Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising its benchmark interest rate over the next few months and to keep it at a peak through year’s end to try to defeat still-high inflation. Minutes from its last policy meeting released Wednesday showed that all 19 Fed officials favored raising rates at the next two meetings.

“From the Fed’s perspective, a slowdown in the economy is anticipated and will be welcome news," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a consulting firm. “However, even as growth slows, a focus on lowering elevated inflation means rates will move up further and will remain higher for longer.”

Higher borrowing costs make mortgages, auto loans and credit card borrowing more expensive. Those higher rates could discourage consumers and businesses from spending, hiring and investing and could eventually push the economy into a recession.

The economy’s growth at the end of 2022 reflected mainly a restocking of inventories, which will likely unwind in coming quarters, and a pickup in government spending. Housing investment fell nearly 26%; higher borrowing rates have crushed homebuying.

Inflation, measured year over year, has cooled since it reached 9.1% in June, having slowed to 6.4% in January. Yet on a monthly basis, price gains accelerated from December to January, raising the prospect that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate higher than it has previously signaled.

In Thursday's GDP report, the government also sharply revised up its estimates of Americans' incomes in the fourth quarter. After-tax income, adjusted for inflation, jumped 4.8%, a much larger gain than the previous 3.3% estimate.

The upward revisions reflected higher wages and salaries than was estimated earlier, and state stimulus payments that were intended to offset inflated costs of gas, food and other necessities. Twenty-one states, including California, Colorado, Florida, New York, Idaho and Pennsylvania issued one-time payments last year, typically in the form of tax refunds.

The boost in incomes could continue to support consumer spending this year and might have helped drive retail sales up in January. If so, stronger consumer spending could force the Fed to continue raising rates or keep them elevated for longer to cool the economy and quell inflation.

tempo_n_groove

mickeyrat said:

https://apnews.com/article/united-states-government-economy-business-cdc78b4b47af71113a2e97784fd60bdd

 

Inflation United States government Economy

US revises down last quarter's economic growth to 2.7% rate

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

Yesterday

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.7% annual rate from October through December, a solid showing despite rising interest rates and elevated inflation, the government said Thursday in a downgrade from its initial estimate.

The government had previously estimated that the economy grew at a 2.9% annual rate last quarter.

The Commerce Department's revised estimate of the fourth quarter's gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — marked a deceleration from the 3.2% growth rate from July through September.

Thursday's report revised down the government's estimate of consumer spending growth in the October-December quarter, from a 2.1% rate to 1.4%. That was the weakest such showing since the first quarter of last year.

Business spending also slowed in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the economy lost momentum at the end of 2022.

More recent data, though, shows that the economy has since rebounded. Consumers boosted retail sales in January by the most in nearly two years, and employers added a surprisingly outsize number of jobs. The unemployment rate reached 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.

Some of the surprisingly strong economic gains in January likely reflected much warmer-than-usual weather. Few economists expect similar outsize gains in hiring or spending in the coming months. Most analysts think growth is slowing to a roughly 2% annual rate in the current January-March quarter.

---

INFLATION

BOJ chief-to-be answers to lawmakers as Japan prices soar

Average long-term US mortgage rate jumps to 6.5% this week

Reality bites as Wall Street's rate cut dream disappears

EU dampens Bulgaria's hopes of joining eurozone before 2025

And the Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising its benchmark interest rate over the next few months and to keep it at a peak through year’s end to try to defeat still-high inflation. Minutes from its last policy meeting released Wednesday showed that all 19 Fed officials favored raising rates at the next two meetings.

“From the Fed’s perspective, a slowdown in the economy is anticipated and will be welcome news," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a consulting firm. “However, even as growth slows, a focus on lowering elevated inflation means rates will move up further and will remain higher for longer.”

Higher borrowing costs make mortgages, auto loans and credit card borrowing more expensive. Those higher rates could discourage consumers and businesses from spending, hiring and investing and could eventually push the economy into a recession.

The economy’s growth at the end of 2022 reflected mainly a restocking of inventories, which will likely unwind in coming quarters, and a pickup in government spending. Housing investment fell nearly 26%; higher borrowing rates have crushed homebuying.

Inflation, measured year over year, has cooled since it reached 9.1% in June, having slowed to 6.4% in January. Yet on a monthly basis, price gains accelerated from December to January, raising the prospect that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate higher than it has previously signaled.

In Thursday's GDP report, the government also sharply revised up its estimates of Americans' incomes in the fourth quarter. After-tax income, adjusted for inflation, jumped 4.8%, a much larger gain than the previous 3.3% estimate.

The upward revisions reflected higher wages and salaries than was estimated earlier, and state stimulus payments that were intended to offset inflated costs of gas, food and other necessities. Twenty-one states, including California, Colorado, Florida, New York, Idaho and Pennsylvania issued one-time payments last year, typically in the form of tax refunds.

The boost in incomes could continue to support consumer spending this year and might have helped drive retail sales up in January. If so, stronger consumer spending could force the Fed to continue raising rates or keep them elevated for longer to cool the economy and quell inflation.

The home buying drop is good for one thing, corporations.  The groups I feel have ruined the house market in the first place by buying up properties and renting/flipping them because they are strapped with cash will win this round again. The house prices go down and they can buy with cash.

They'll keep pushing the limits on what the market will bare and keep bleeding people dry.

What ever happened to the big layoffs from the big tech companies?  Seems like it didn't even make a dent.

mickeyrat

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-system-canada-business-2f3096f01c56c76432dce0a51a9dca24

 

Inflation Federal Reserve System

Fed's rate hikes likely to cause a recession, research says

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

Today

NEW YORK (AP) — Can the Federal Reserve keep raising interest rates and defeat the nation's worst bout of inflation in 40 years without causing a recession?

Not according to a new research paper that concludes that such an “immaculate disinflation” has never happened before. The paper was produced by a group of leading economists, and three Fed officials addressed its conclusions in their own remarks Friday at a conference on monetary policy in New York.

When inflation soars, as it has for the past two years, the Fed typically responds by raising interest rates, often aggressively, to try to cool the economy and slow price increases. Those higher rates, in turn, make mortgages, auto loans, credit card borrowing and business lending more expensive.

But sometimes inflation pressures still prove persistent and require ever-higher rates to tame. The result — steadily more expensive loans — can force companies to cancel new ventures and cut jobs and consumers to reduce spending. It all adds up to a recipe for recession.

And that, the research paper concludes, is just what has happened in previous periods of high inflation. The researchers reviewed 16 episodes since 1950 when a central bank like the Fed raised the cost of borrowing to fight inflation, in the United States, Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom. In each case, a recession resulted.

---

INFLATION

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Netflix cuts prices in some markets to lure more subscribers

Key US inflation measure surges at fastest rate since June

“There is no post-1950 precedent for a sizable ... disinflation that does not entail substantial economic sacrifice or recession,” the paper concluded.

The paper was written by a group of economists, including: Stephen Cecchetti, a professor at Brandeis University and a former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan and a former Fed staffer; Peter Hooper, vice chair of research at Deutsche Bank, and Frederic Mishkin, a former Federal Reserve governor.

The paper coincides with a growing awareness in financial markets and among economists that the Fed will likely have to boost interest rates even higher than previously estimated. Over the past year, the Fed has raised its key short-term rate eight times.

The perception that the central bank will need to keep raising borrowing costs was reinforced by a government report Friday that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge accelerated in January after several months of declines. Prices jumped 0.6% from December to January, the biggest monthly increase since June.

The latest evidence of price acceleration makes it more likely that the Fed will need to do more to defeat high inflation.

Yet Philip Jefferson, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, offered remarks Friday at the monetary policy conference that suggested that a recession may not be inevitable, a view that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has also expressed. Jefferson downplayed the role of past episodes of inflation, noting that the pandemic so disrupted the economy that historical patterns are less reliable as a guide this time.

“History is useful, but it can only tell us so much, particularly in situations without historical precedent,” Jefferson said. “The current situation is different from past episodes in at least four ways.”

Those differences, he said, are the “unprecedented” disruption to supply chains since the pandemic; the decline in the number of people working or looking for work; the fact that the Fed has more credibility as an inflation-fighter than in the 1970s; and the fact that the Fed has moved forcefully to fight inflation with eight rate hikes in the past year.

Speaking at Friday's conference, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, came closer to accepting the paper's findings. She said its conclusions, along with other recent research, “suggest that inflation could be more persistent than currently anticipated.”

“I see the risks to the inflation forecast as tilted to the upside and the costs of continued high inflation as being significant,” she said in prepared remarks.

Another speaker, Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed, held out hope that a recession could be avoided even as the Fed seeks to conquer inflation with higher rates. Collins said she's “optimistic there is a path to restoring price stability without a significant downturn." She added, though, that she's “well-aware of the many risks and uncertainties” now surrounding the economy.

Yet Collins also suggested that the Fed will have to keep tightening credit and keep rates higher “for some, perhaps extended, time.”

Some surprisingly strong economic reports last month suggested that the economy is more durable than it appeared at the end of last year. Such signs of resilience raised hopes that a recession could be avoided even if the Fed keeps tightening credit and makes mortgages, auto loans, credit card borrowing and many corporate loans increasingly expensive.

Problem is, inflation is also slowing more gradually and more fitfully than it first seemed last year. Earlier this month, the government revised up consumer price data. Partly as a result of the revisions, over the past three months, core consumer prices — which exclude volatile food and energy costs — have risen at a 4.6% annual rate, up from 4.3% in December.

Those trends raise the possibility that the Fed's policymakers will decide they must raise rates further than they’ve previously projected and keep them higher for longer to try to bring inflation down to their 2% target. Doing so would make a recession later this year more likely. Prices rose 5% in January from a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred measure.

Using the historical data, the authors project that if the Fed raises its benchmark rate to between 5.2% and 5.5% — three-quarters of a point higher than its current level, which many economists envision the Fed doing — the unemployment rate would rise to 5.1%, while inflation would fall as low as 2.9%, by the end of 2025.

Inflation at that level would still exceed Fed's target, suggesting that the central bank would have to raise rates even further.

In December, Fed officials projected that higher rates would slow growth and raise the unemployment rate to 4.6%, from 3.4% now. But they predicted the economy would grow slightly this year and next and avoid a downturn.

Other economists have pointed to periods when the Fed successfully achieved a so-called soft landing, including in 1983 and 1994. Yet in those periods, the paper notes, inflation wasn't nearly as severe as it was last year, when it peaked at 9.1% in June, a four-decade high. In those earlier cases, the Fed hiked rates to prevent inflation, rather than having to reduce inflation after it had already surged.

tempo_n_groove

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

mrussel1

tempo_n_groove said:

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

I heard on the news this morning that in some areas unemployment rate on construction is less than 1%.  You aren't seeing anything close to that?

tempo_n_groove

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

I heard on the news this morning that in some areas unemployment rate on construction is less than 1%.  You aren't seeing anything close to that?

We have more than that here in NYC.  There are a few projects coming up but the benches are getting full at the hall and Furlough for the Electricians is going to be a year perhaps.

These things usually happen in the big cities first then trickle out.

mickeyrat

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

I heard on the news this morning that in some areas unemployment rate on construction is less than 1%.  You aren't seeing anything close to that?

We have more than that here in NYC.  There are a few projects coming up but the benches are getting full at the hall and Furlough for the Electricians is going to be a year perhaps.

These things usually happen in the big cities first then trickle out.

not in ohio. osu doesnt stop building. intel plant.  adbook and google and amazon cloud farms.  thats just central ohio.

tempo_n_groove

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

I heard on the news this morning that in some areas unemployment rate on construction is less than 1%.  You aren't seeing anything close to that?

We have more than that here in NYC.  There are a few projects coming up but the benches are getting full at the hall and Furlough for the Electricians is going to be a year perhaps.

These things usually happen in the big cities first then trickle out.

not in ohio. osu doesnt stop building. intel plant.  adbook and google and amazon cloud farms.  thats just central ohio.

NYC technically doesn't "stop building" either but there are slow downs.  Hell, JFK, MTA and LaGuardia have all been under construction for the past 12 years I've been here.  Even with these projects going on there are slowdowns.  The smaller projects that are non union start to pile up quick with unemployment.

Texas will have a boom but it's not for another 2 years or so with the chip plants.

Hearing that Ohio keeps building is interesting. Not everyone can eat off of OSUs plate though.

static111

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

I heard on the news this morning that in some areas unemployment rate on construction is less than 1%.  You aren't seeing anything close to that?

We have more than that here in NYC.  There are a few projects coming up but the benches are getting full at the hall and Furlough for the Electricians is going to be a year perhaps.

These things usually happen in the big cities first then trickle out.

not in ohio. osu doesnt stop building. intel plant.  adbook and google and amazon cloud farms.  thats just central ohio.

NYC technically doesn't "stop building" either but there are slow downs.  Hell, JFK, MTA and LaGuardia have all been under construction for the past 12 years I've been here.  Even with these projects going on there are slowdowns.  The smaller projects that are non union start to pile up quick with unemployment.

Texas will have a boom but it's not for another 2 years or so with the chip plants.

Hearing that Ohio keeps building is interesting. Not everyone can eat off of OSUs plate though.

Samsung is well underway with one of their biggest chip plants that is going up in Taylor just outside of Austin,  They are having trouble finding skilled contractors because of all the other chip plants going up around the US. I am now out of the loop as I left that industry behind, but I am pretty sure there are some other huge projects going on with TI in Dallas among others,  I can't imagine a bigger boom, there would literally be no people to work because the industry is stretched thin as it is at least construction/inspection side.

mrussel1

static111 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

I heard on the news this morning that in some areas unemployment rate on construction is less than 1%.  You aren't seeing anything close to that?

We have more than that here in NYC.  There are a few projects coming up but the benches are getting full at the hall and Furlough for the Electricians is going to be a year perhaps.

These things usually happen in the big cities first then trickle out.

not in ohio. osu doesnt stop building. intel plant.  adbook and google and amazon cloud farms.  thats just central ohio.

NYC technically doesn't "stop building" either but there are slow downs.  Hell, JFK, MTA and LaGuardia have all been under construction for the past 12 years I've been here.  Even with these projects going on there are slowdowns.  The smaller projects that are non union start to pile up quick with unemployment.

Texas will have a boom but it's not for another 2 years or so with the chip plants.

Hearing that Ohio keeps building is interesting. Not everyone can eat off of OSUs plate though.

Samsung is well underway with one of their biggest chip plants that is going up in Taylor just outside of Austin,  They are having trouble finding skilled contractors because of all the other chip plants going up around the US. I am now out of the loop as I left that industry behind, but I am pretty sure there are some other huge projects going on with TI in Dallas among others,  I can't imagine a bigger boom, there would literally be no people to work because the industry is stretched thin as it is at least construction/inspection side.

The Biden admin been pouring gov't resources into subsidies to build chip plants in the US (CHIPS and Science Act).  We made pretty big mistakes in outsourcing critical defense components like chips.  Many are made in Taiwan, who is an ally, but who knows for how long.  I'd be curious to know if that Samsung plant happened due to the act.  

tempo_n_groove

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

I heard on the news this morning that in some areas unemployment rate on construction is less than 1%.  You aren't seeing anything close to that?

We have more than that here in NYC.  There are a few projects coming up but the benches are getting full at the hall and Furlough for the Electricians is going to be a year perhaps.

These things usually happen in the big cities first then trickle out.

not in ohio. osu doesnt stop building. intel plant.  adbook and google and amazon cloud farms.  thats just central ohio.

NYC technically doesn't "stop building" either but there are slow downs.  Hell, JFK, MTA and LaGuardia have all been under construction for the past 12 years I've been here.  Even with these projects going on there are slowdowns.  The smaller projects that are non union start to pile up quick with unemployment.

Texas will have a boom but it's not for another 2 years or so with the chip plants.

Hearing that Ohio keeps building is interesting. Not everyone can eat off of OSUs plate though.

Samsung is well underway with one of their biggest chip plants that is going up in Taylor just outside of Austin,  They are having trouble finding skilled contractors because of all the other chip plants going up around the US. I am now out of the loop as I left that industry behind, but I am pretty sure there are some other huge projects going on with TI in Dallas among others,  I can't imagine a bigger boom, there would literally be no people to work because the industry is stretched thin as it is at least construction/inspection side.

The Biden admin been pouring gov't resources into subsidies to build chip plants in the US (CHIPS and Science Act).  We made pretty big mistakes in outsourcing critical defense components like chips.  Many are made in Taiwan, who is an ally, but who knows for how long.  I'd be curious to know if that Samsung plant happened due to the act.  

I believe it did.  It was big news.

tempo_n_groove

static111 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

I heard on the news this morning that in some areas unemployment rate on construction is less than 1%.  You aren't seeing anything close to that?

We have more than that here in NYC.  There are a few projects coming up but the benches are getting full at the hall and Furlough for the Electricians is going to be a year perhaps.

These things usually happen in the big cities first then trickle out.

not in ohio. osu doesnt stop building. intel plant.  adbook and google and amazon cloud farms.  thats just central ohio.

NYC technically doesn't "stop building" either but there are slow downs.  Hell, JFK, MTA and LaGuardia have all been under construction for the past 12 years I've been here.  Even with these projects going on there are slowdowns.  The smaller projects that are non union start to pile up quick with unemployment.

Texas will have a boom but it's not for another 2 years or so with the chip plants.

Hearing that Ohio keeps building is interesting. Not everyone can eat off of OSUs plate though.

Samsung is well underway with one of their biggest chip plants that is going up in Taylor just outside of Austin,  They are having trouble finding skilled contractors because of all the other chip plants going up around the US. I am now out of the loop as I left that industry behind, but I am pretty sure there are some other huge projects going on with TI in Dallas among others,  I can't imagine a bigger boom, there would literally be no people to work because the industry is stretched thin as it is at least construction/inspection side.

I haven't followed up on what's going on with the plant but yes it's a big deal but again, NY isn't benefitting from that tech boom.  I will tell you this, Austin wouldn't have been my first choice for that plant.  That area is very heavily congested now.  It's crazy how populated it got.

That all started from Dell I think?

From what I read on the chip plants only 1 was going to be a superconductor plant where any of the others were not as big?  And Intel was going to be building new chip plants also.

It would be nice if we started making the batteries for Ev cars too.

These chip plants aren't scheduled to be up and running for a few more years I think?

Halifax2TheMax

tempo_n_groove said:

static111 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

I heard on the news this morning that in some areas unemployment rate on construction is less than 1%.  You aren't seeing anything close to that?

We have more than that here in NYC.  There are a few projects coming up but the benches are getting full at the hall and Furlough for the Electricians is going to be a year perhaps.

These things usually happen in the big cities first then trickle out.

not in ohio. osu doesnt stop building. intel plant.  adbook and google and amazon cloud farms.  thats just central ohio.

NYC technically doesn't "stop building" either but there are slow downs.  Hell, JFK, MTA and LaGuardia have all been under construction for the past 12 years I've been here.  Even with these projects going on there are slowdowns.  The smaller projects that are non union start to pile up quick with unemployment.

Texas will have a boom but it's not for another 2 years or so with the chip plants.

Hearing that Ohio keeps building is interesting. Not everyone can eat off of OSUs plate though.

Samsung is well underway with one of their biggest chip plants that is going up in Taylor just outside of Austin,  They are having trouble finding skilled contractors because of all the other chip plants going up around the US. I am now out of the loop as I left that industry behind, but I am pretty sure there are some other huge projects going on with TI in Dallas among others,  I can't imagine a bigger boom, there would literally be no people to work because the industry is stretched thin as it is at least construction/inspection side.

I haven't followed up on what's going on with the plant but yes it's a big deal but again, NY isn't benefitting from that tech boom.  I will tell you this, Austin wouldn't have been my first choice for that plant.  That area is very heavily congested now.  It's crazy how populated it got.

That all started from Dell I think?

From what I read on the chip plants only 1 was going to be a superconductor plant where any of the others were not as big?  And Intel was going to be building new chip plants also.

It would be nice if we started making the batteries for Ev cars too.

These chip plants aren't scheduled to be up and running for a few more years I think?

They’re not?

New York outlets are reporting on Micron Technology Inc.’s historic multi-billion dollar investment in Upstate New York to construct the largest semiconductor manufacturing facility in the U.S., creating tens of thousands of good paying jobs.

The announcement, which President Biden called “another win for America,” is just the latest investment in America spurred by the President’s economic plan and his commitment to rebuilding American manufacturing. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra credited the CHIPS and Science Act – which President Biden signed into law this past August – as being directly responsible for Micron’s investment in New York, saying in a statement that “there is no doubt that without the CHIPS Act, we would not be here today.”

It comes on the heels of last month’s pledge from Wolfspeed that it will invest $5 billion on a new chipmaking facility in North Carolina, and the groundbreaking of Intel’s new $20 billion facility in Ohio.

Read below for a sampling of the coverage:

Syracuse Post-Standard (Syracuse.com) : Biden: Micron’s computer chip deal in Syracuse area ‘another win for America’
“To those who doubted that America could dominate the industries of the future, I say this – you should never bet against the American people,” Biden said in a statement. … “Today is another win for America, and another massive new investment in America spurred by my economic plan,” Biden said. “Micron, an American company, is investing $20 billion dollars this decade and up to $100 billion over 20 years in chips manufacturing in Upstate New York, creating tens of thousands of good paying jobs.” … White House chief of staff Ron Klain called Micron’s commitment to build at White Pine Commerce Park in the town of Clay “one of the largest industrial job-creating projects in U.S. history.”

CNY Central: President, local lawmakers react to Micron choosing Central New York for plant
President Biden is among those reacting to the announcement, releasing the following statement: “To those who doubted that America could dominate the industries of the future, I say this – you should never bet against the American people. Today is another win for America, and another massive new investment in America spurred by my economic plan. Micron, an American company, is investing $20 billion dollars this decade and up to $100 billion over twenty years in CHIPS manufacturing in upstate New York, creating tens of thousands of good paying jobs. Together, we are building an economy from the bottom up and the middle out, where we lower costs for our families and make it right here in America.”

New York Daily News: Micron to build massive Syracuse, N.Y. factory; Schumer hails ‘Erie Canal moment’
The project was supercharged by bipartisan legislation, shepherded through the Senate by Schumer and signed by President Biden, that authorized more than $50 billion in semiconductor manufacturing investments. … And it was boosted by a New York law signed by Hochul that created incentives of up to $10 billion for eco-friendly semiconductor manufacturing projects. Micron’s plan for the plant includes commitments to use 100% renewable electricity and to aim for zero landfill waste, among other green pledges. … Micron’s chief executive, Sanjay Mehrotra, credited both the passage of the federal measure, called the CHIPS and Science Act, and the state Green CHIPS law for making the Clay project possible.

Spectrum NY1: Micron to open ‘transformational’ chip plant in Syracuse suburb, bring thousands of jobs
“After years and years of hard work, it’s official. Micron is coming to Central New York. If there’s a word to describe to today it’s transformational; for upstate New York, for America. It will be the most advanced chip manufacturer in America and probably the world, all here in Central New York,” [Senate Majority Leader Chuck] Schumer said in a statement. “We invented the chip in America and once again we are going to make them here in America. We will bring these jobs back from foreign shores and end our dependence on foreign chips.”

WAER (Syracuse University, NY): It’s official: Micron chip maker is moving in to the Town of Clay
The plan would create the “largest semiconductor fabrication facility in the history of the U.S.,” according to a release from Micron. The company expects the project to create tens of thousands of jobs in the region over the next 20 years. … U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said at the announcement hosted by Syracuse University the development’s significance is similar to the 19th century opening of the Erie Canal, which brought an influx of jobs and industrial progress. … “New Yorkers and Americans will look back 50 years from now and remember this project as our Erie Canal moment,” said Schumer, who was joined on stage by the governor, Onondaga County executive and Micron CEO.

Albany Times Union: Schumer unveils Micron’s plans to build $100 billion chip fab outside Syracuse
Micron Technology, one of the world’s largest computer chip manufacturers, has picked the Syracuse suburbs for a new $100 billion semiconductor factory that could create 50,000 jobs and likely cements Albany Nanotech as the choice for a new billion-dollar national chip research lab. … New York state has offered Micron $5 billion in state tax breaks to land what is the largest economic development deal in state history and one of the largest semiconductor projects in U.S. history. Micron would spend $20 billion through 2030 as it ramps up operations. Construction would begin in 2024. New York would add another $500 million in job training support.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/05/what-they-are-reading-in-the-states-syracuse-post-standard-biden-microns-computer-chip-deal-in-syracuse-area-another-win-for-america/

mrussel1

It's so weird, I haven't seen any of this news on Fox.  I did read about Hunter's laptop and drag shows.  That seems more important. 

tempo_n_groove

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

static111 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Usually by now we have a lot of public works coming out to bid, there aren't.  Private isn't looking that great either.  The prison industry is booming again though.  My former employee has been trying to get me back because they have a serious backlog.

So yes, I would lean towards a recession coming.

I heard on the news this morning that in some areas unemployment rate on construction is less than 1%.  You aren't seeing anything close to that?

We have more than that here in NYC.  There are a few projects coming up but the benches are getting full at the hall and Furlough for the Electricians is going to be a year perhaps.

These things usually happen in the big cities first then trickle out.

not in ohio. osu doesnt stop building. intel plant.  adbook and google and amazon cloud farms.  thats just central ohio.

NYC technically doesn't "stop building" either but there are slow downs.  Hell, JFK, MTA and LaGuardia have all been under construction for the past 12 years I've been here.  Even with these projects going on there are slowdowns.  The smaller projects that are non union start to pile up quick with unemployment.

Texas will have a boom but it's not for another 2 years or so with the chip plants.

Hearing that Ohio keeps building is interesting. Not everyone can eat off of OSUs plate though.

Samsung is well underway with one of their biggest chip plants that is going up in Taylor just outside of Austin,  They are having trouble finding skilled contractors because of all the other chip plants going up around the US. I am now out of the loop as I left that industry behind, but I am pretty sure there are some other huge projects going on with TI in Dallas among others,  I can't imagine a bigger boom, there would literally be no people to work because the industry is stretched thin as it is at least construction/inspection side.

I haven't followed up on what's going on with the plant but yes it's a big deal but again, NY isn't benefitting from that tech boom.  I will tell you this, Austin wouldn't have been my first choice for that plant.  That area is very heavily congested now.  It's crazy how populated it got.

That all started from Dell I think?

From what I read on the chip plants only 1 was going to be a superconductor plant where any of the others were not as big?  And Intel was going to be building new chip plants also.

It would be nice if we started making the batteries for Ev cars too.

These chip plants aren't scheduled to be up and running for a few more years I think?

They’re not?

New York outlets are reporting on Micron Technology Inc.’s historic multi-billion dollar investment in Upstate New York to construct the largest semiconductor manufacturing facility in the U.S., creating tens of thousands of good paying jobs.

The announcement, which President Biden called “another win for America,” is just the latest investment in America spurred by the President’s economic plan and his commitment to rebuilding American manufacturing. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra credited the CHIPS and Science Act – which President Biden signed into law this past August – as being directly responsible for Micron’s investment in New York, saying in a statement that “there is no doubt that without the CHIPS Act, we would not be here today.”

It comes on the heels of last month’s pledge from Wolfspeed that it will invest $5 billion on a new chipmaking facility in North Carolina, and the groundbreaking of Intel’s new $20 billion facility in Ohio.

Read below for a sampling of the coverage:

Syracuse Post-Standard (Syracuse.com) : Biden: Micron’s computer chip deal in Syracuse area ‘another win for America’
“To those who doubted that America could dominate the industries of the future, I say this – you should never bet against the American people,” Biden said in a statement. … “Today is another win for America, and another massive new investment in America spurred by my economic plan,” Biden said. “Micron, an American company, is investing $20 billion dollars this decade and up to $100 billion over 20 years in chips manufacturing in Upstate New York, creating tens of thousands of good paying jobs.” … White House chief of staff Ron Klain called Micron’s commitment to build at White Pine Commerce Park in the town of Clay “one of the largest industrial job-creating projects in U.S. history.”

CNY Central: President, local lawmakers react to Micron choosing Central New York for plant
President Biden is among those reacting to the announcement, releasing the following statement: “To those who doubted that America could dominate the industries of the future, I say this – you should never bet against the American people. Today is another win for America, and another massive new investment in America spurred by my economic plan. Micron, an American company, is investing $20 billion dollars this decade and up to $100 billion over twenty years in CHIPS manufacturing in upstate New York, creating tens of thousands of good paying jobs. Together, we are building an economy from the bottom up and the middle out, where we lower costs for our families and make it right here in America.”

New York Daily News: Micron to build massive Syracuse, N.Y. factory; Schumer hails ‘Erie Canal moment’
The project was supercharged by bipartisan legislation, shepherded through the Senate by Schumer and signed by President Biden, that authorized more than $50 billion in semiconductor manufacturing investments. … And it was boosted by a New York law signed by Hochul that created incentives of up to $10 billion for eco-friendly semiconductor manufacturing projects. Micron’s plan for the plant includes commitments to use 100% renewable electricity and to aim for zero landfill waste, among other green pledges. … Micron’s chief executive, Sanjay Mehrotra, credited both the passage of the federal measure, called the CHIPS and Science Act, and the state Green CHIPS law for making the Clay project possible.

Spectrum NY1: Micron to open ‘transformational’ chip plant in Syracuse suburb, bring thousands of jobs
“After years and years of hard work, it’s official. Micron is coming to Central New York. If there’s a word to describe to today it’s transformational; for upstate New York, for America. It will be the most advanced chip manufacturer in America and probably the world, all here in Central New York,” [Senate Majority Leader Chuck] Schumer said in a statement. “We invented the chip in America and once again we are going to make them here in America. We will bring these jobs back from foreign shores and end our dependence on foreign chips.”

WAER (Syracuse University, NY): It’s official: Micron chip maker is moving in to the Town of Clay
The plan would create the “largest semiconductor fabrication facility in the history of the U.S.,” according to a release from Micron. The company expects the project to create tens of thousands of jobs in the region over the next 20 years. … U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said at the announcement hosted by Syracuse University the development’s significance is similar to the 19th century opening of the Erie Canal, which brought an influx of jobs and industrial progress. … “New Yorkers and Americans will look back 50 years from now and remember this project as our Erie Canal moment,” said Schumer, who was joined on stage by the governor, Onondaga County executive and Micron CEO.

Albany Times Union: Schumer unveils Micron’s plans to build $100 billion chip fab outside Syracuse
Micron Technology, one of the world’s largest computer chip manufacturers, has picked the Syracuse suburbs for a new $100 billion semiconductor factory that could create 50,000 jobs and likely cements Albany Nanotech as the choice for a new billion-dollar national chip research lab. … New York state has offered Micron $5 billion in state tax breaks to land what is the largest economic development deal in state history and one of the largest semiconductor projects in U.S. history. Micron would spend $20 billion through 2030 as it ramps up operations. Construction would begin in 2024. New York would add another $500 million in job training support.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/05/what-they-are-reading-in-the-states-syracuse-post-standard-biden-microns-computer-chip-deal-in-syracuse-area-another-win-for-america/

I wasn't aware we were making one here in NY.  It'll be interesting to see how they are able to do clean rooms here. Tens of thousands of jobs from one plant though?  I'll believe that when it happens because that is one big workforce.  50k people is alot.  

That would be the US' largest employer for one city if they can do that.

I hope it does happen.  It'll be 4 years down the line but that would be something.

Edit:  I remember reading about China complaining about the US attempting to build these Chip factories.  I see why now.  This is a game changer.