Options

Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

1131416181923

Comments

  • Options
    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,628
    I'm not sure if it's predatory or not. I don't truly think it is.....HOWEVER I think our country and our school systems, along with parents, have done such a shitty job preparing teens for adulthood. I know I had no idea what the hell I was doing back then and how much I would owe upon graduation. I thankfully paid mine off eventually. But a lot of people are not so lucky.

    Plus the cost of tuition, along with everything else, is so out of proportion with how much wages have grown that it's almost impossible to equate it with how we dealt with it back in the day. It's like comparing modern NFL stats with players from the 70's or 80's...it's a completely different game now. 
    Being in lending, predatory has a very specific meaning.  So I agree that it's not predatory using the regulatory definition.  But the point is correct that kids are uninformed because their parents are either uninformed, or can't say no to their kids.  Sometimes I think it's mostly the latter as I know many of these parents and they are very smart.  But it's like they get wrapped up in the process and excitement of sending their kid to a fancy school rather than some drab state university.  
  • Options
    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,261
    mrussel1 said:
    I'm not sure if it's predatory or not. I don't truly think it is.....HOWEVER I think our country and our school systems, along with parents, have done such a shitty job preparing teens for adulthood. I know I had no idea what the hell I was doing back then and how much I would owe upon graduation. I thankfully paid mine off eventually. But a lot of people are not so lucky.

    Plus the cost of tuition, along with everything else, is so out of proportion with how much wages have grown that it's almost impossible to equate it with how we dealt with it back in the day. It's like comparing modern NFL stats with players from the 70's or 80's...it's a completely different game now. 
    Being in lending, predatory has a very specific meaning.  So I agree that it's not predatory using the regulatory definition.  But the point is correct that kids are uninformed because their parents are either uninformed, or can't say no to their kids.  Sometimes I think it's mostly the latter as I know many of these parents and they are very smart.  But it's like they get wrapped up in the process and excitement of sending their kid to a fancy school rather than some drab state university.  
    Yeah and it's been this way for decades now. It's a part of the culture of this country. Tough habit to break. 


    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,726
    edited July 2023
    do kids still do those career assessment tests in middle school?

    I did back when. top 5 were several trades. number 1 being driving.

    aftr approx 1.4 million miles behind me, I wish I would have gotten sober much much earlier than I did at 37/38 yrs old.

    I dropped out of hs. I am in a profession I seem to be built for. we cracked 6 figures a couple years ago on about 50 hrs a week. 

    edit to add. so growing up it was effectively beaten into me that I was going to college.  had no and still dont have any interest.
    Post edited by mickeyrat on
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,726
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,628
    mickeyrat said:
    I saw that on the fake news, but Fox hasn't reported it yet so it's probably not real. 
  • Options
    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,589
    mrussel1 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    I saw that on the fake news, but Fox hasn't reported it yet so it's probably not real. 
    And like those 497000 new hires would vote for Brandon anyway.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • Options
    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,261

    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Options
    tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,985

    I'm not sure of the chart but I think this show inflation going down?
  • Options
    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,261
    edited July 2023

    I'm not sure of the chart but I think this show inflation going down?
    Sorry--yes. CPI came out today. 

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/inflation-rose-just-0point2percent-in-june-less-than-expected-as-consumers-get-a-break-from-price-increases.html

    I think they might still raise .25% in a couple weeks and that could be it...
    Post edited by The Juggler on
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Options
    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,628
    GDP - UP
    Employment - UP
    Inflation - DOWN

    Sounds pretty good.  I'm sure it will seem terrible once I read some Fox News.  
  • Options
    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,628
    mrussel1 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    I saw that on the fake news, but Fox hasn't reported it yet so it's probably not real. 
    And like those 497000 new hires would vote for Brandon anyway.
    I've been told by right wing news that anyone with a job vote R every time.  Also, all corporations are woke. 
  • Options
    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,589
    Just made up numbers with the difference being skimmed into the Brandon crime family’s bank accounts so they can buy more blow.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • Options
    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,261
    Well the job number released by the gov on Friday was actually lower than expectations. Around 200k. You guys are talking about ADP. 

    However a cooling job market is definitely not the worst thing in the world as far as inflation and interest rates are concerned. Might have a soft landing on the horizon. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,726

     
    A Fed still wary of inflation is set to raise rates to a 22-year peak. Will it be the last hike?
    By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
    Today

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Even after inflation has steadily eased this year, the Federal Reserve's policymakers still think prices are rising too fast and are almost certain to lift their key interest rate by a quarter-point on Wednesday.

    A rate increase, the 11th in 17 months, would raise the Fed's short-term rate to roughly 5.3%, the highest level since 2001. As with its previous rate hikes, Wednesday's increase would likely further elevate the costs of mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing.

    Another hike is widely expected despite a run of encouraging news that has sent stock prices steadily higher, boosted consumer confidence and brightened hopes that the Fed can pull off a difficult “soft landing,” in which inflation would continue to slow toward the Fed’s 2% target without sending the economy tumbling into a recession.

    Inflation amounted to just 3% in June compared with a year earlier, down drastically from a peak of 9.1% in June of last year. Consumers are still spending more — crowding airplanestraveling overseas and flocking to concerts and movie theaters. Businesses keep hiring, and the unemployment rate has stayed near half-century lows.

    Yet the Fed's expected rate hike Wednesday, after it chose to skip a rate increase last month, points to the dangers that remain. Underlying inflation is still well above the Fed's target. A price gauge that excludes volatile food and energy costs, known as “core” inflation, rose 4.8% in June compared with 12 months earlier. As long as such measures stay elevated, Fed officials will feel compelled to keep rates high — and possibly raise them further.

    In June, the policymakers signaled that they expected to impose two more increases, including Wednesday's expected hike. Some economists have said they worry that too many hikes could trigger a painful recession.

    The big question that Chair Jerome Powell will likely face at a news conference Wednesday is whether and when the Fed may decide to stop lifting rates. Few expect Powell to tip his hand. Instead, he will probably stress that the Fed's future rate decisions will hinge on what signs the economy sends between now and its next meeting Sept. 19-20.

    By then, the policymakers will have much more information. In particular, the government will have released two more monthly inflation reports, two more reports on hiring and unemployment and additional data on consumer spending and wages.

    And in late August, Powell will speak at the annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which is typically a high-profile opportunity to signal shifts in Fed policy or strategy.

    “He's going to save a lot of what he's going to say for Jackson Hole,” said Ellen Meade, a Duke University economics professor and former top Fed economist. “At Jackson Hole, Powell can provide a broad perspective, take stock and outline the thinking on what comes next.”

    Though Powell has stressed that interest rate decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, some analysts think the Fed will end up forgoing a hike at its September meeting, similar to its decision to skip an increase in June. The officials would then have the option of imposing a quarter-point hike at their following meeting in November.

    Yet by then, most economists think inflation — and the economy — will have cooled enough that another hike won't be needed. If so, Wednesday's rate increase would end up being the final one this year.

    The Fed started tightening credit before many of its counterparts in other developed countries. But most others are now following a similar path. The European Central Bank is expected to announce its own quarter-point rate hike on Thursday. Though inflation has declined in the 20 countries that use the euro, it remains higher there than in the United States.

    The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policies unchanged when it meets next week even though prices are creeping higher in that country after roughly two decades of declining prices. The Bank of England has been among the most aggressive in Europe, having raised its key rate last month by a surprise half-point to a 15-year high of 5%. In the U.K., inflation, which has stayed persistently high, reached 8.7% in May from a year earlier.

    On Friday, the U.S. government is expected to release fresh data on consumer spending in June and an update on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The inflation measure is expected to slow to just 3% compared with a year earlier. That would be the same figure most recently reported for the government's better-known consumer price index. And it would be down sharply from a 3.8% year-over-year increase in May.


    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,726

     
    US economy accelerated unexpectedly to a 2.4% growth rate in April-June quarter despite Fed hikes
    By PAUL WISEMAN
    28 mins ago

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy surprisingly accelerated to a 2.4% annual growth rate from April through June, showing continued resilience in the face of steadily higher interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve’s 16-month-long fight to bring down inflation.

    Thursday’s estimate from the Commerce Department indicated that the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — picked up from the 2% growth rate in the January-March quarter. Last quarter's expansion was well above the 1.5% annual rate that economists had forecast.

    Driving the gain was a burst of business investment, which surged at a 5.7% annual pace, the fastest rate since late 2021. Companies plowed more money into factories and equipment. Increased spending by state and local governments also helped fuel growth in the April-June quarter.

    Consumer spending, though, slowed to a 1.6% annual rate, from a 4.2% pace in the first quarter of the year, a likely consequence of higher borrowing costs. Investment in housing also fell in the face of higher mortgage rates.

    "This is a strong report, confirming that this economy continues to largely shrug off the Fed’s aggressive rate increases and tightening credit conditions,’’ said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economics at Fitch Ratings. “The bottom line is that the U.S. economy is still growing above trend, and the Fed will be wondering if they need to do more to slow this economy.”

    In fighting inflation, which last year hit a four-decade high, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022, most recently on Wednesday. The resulting higher costs for a broad range of loans — from mortgages and credit cards to auto loans and business borrowing — have taken a toll on growth.

    Still, they have yet to tip the United States into a widely forecast recession. Optimism has been growing that a recession isn’t coming after all, that the Fed can engineer a so-called “soft-landing” — slowing the economy enough to bring inflation down to its 2% annual target without wrecking an expansion of surprising durability.

    This week, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for U.S. economic growth for all of 2023 to 1.8%. Though that would be down from 2.1% growth for 2022, it marked an increase from the 1.6% growth that the IMF had predicted for 2023 back in April.

    At a news conference Wednesday after the Fed announced its latest quarter-point rate hike, Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the central bank’s staff economists no longer foresee a recession in the United States. In April, the minutes of the central bank’s March meeting had revealed that the Fed’s staff economists envisioned a “mild” recession later this year.

    In his remarks, Powell noted that the economy has proved resilient despite the Fed’s rapid rate hikes. And he said he still thinks a soft landing remains possible.

    By any measure, the American job market has shown itself to be remarkably strong. At 3.6% in June, the unemployment rate hovers just above a five-decade low. A surge in retirements after COVID-19 hit in early 2020 has contributed to a shortage of workers across the country, forcing many companies to raise wages to attract or keep staffers.

    Higher pay and job security are giving Americans the confidence and financial wherewithal to keep shopping. Indeed, consumer spending, which drives about 70% of economic activity, rose at a 4.2% annual rate from January through March, the fastest quarterly pace in nearly two years. Americans have kept spending — crowding airplanestraveling overseas and flocking to concerts and movie theaters.

    And the Conference Board, a business research group, reported Tuesday that Americans this month are in their sunniest mood in two years, based on the board’s reading of consumer confidence.

    Indeed, many consumers are finally enjoying some relief from spiking prices: Year-over-year inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, has eased consistently ever since. Inflation-adjusted hourly pay rose 1.4% in June from a year earlier, the sharpest such gain since early 2021.

    “Growth is outpacing expectations even as the monetary policy stance has become restrictive,″ said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “And inflation, while high, is moving in the right direction. A strong household sector that continues to benefit from positive job growth and rising real incomes should keep growth on a positive trajectory this year.″

    Still, the risk remains that the weight of ever-higher interest rates will eventually slow borrowing so much — for homes, cars, renovations, business expansions and other costly expenses — as to pull the economy into recession.

    Among the economy’s weakest links has been the housing market. In June, sales of previously occupied homes sank to their slowest pace since January. The problem is that a near-historic low number of homes for sale and higher mortgage rates kept many would-be homebuyers on the sidelines. Sales fell 19% compared with June 2022 and were down 23% through the first half of the year.


    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,261
    mickeyrat said:

     
    US economy accelerated unexpectedly to a 2.4% growth rate in April-June quarter despite Fed hikes
    By PAUL WISEMAN
    28 mins ago

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy surprisingly accelerated to a 2.4% annual growth rate from April through June, showing continued resilience in the face of steadily higher interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve’s 16-month-long fight to bring down inflation.

    Thursday’s estimate from the Commerce Department indicated that the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — picked up from the 2% growth rate in the January-March quarter. Last quarter's expansion was well above the 1.5% annual rate that economists had forecast.

    Driving the gain was a burst of business investment, which surged at a 5.7% annual pace, the fastest rate since late 2021. Companies plowed more money into factories and equipment. Increased spending by state and local governments also helped fuel growth in the April-June quarter.

    Consumer spending, though, slowed to a 1.6% annual rate, from a 4.2% pace in the first quarter of the year, a likely consequence of higher borrowing costs. Investment in housing also fell in the face of higher mortgage rates.

    "This is a strong report, confirming that this economy continues to largely shrug off the Fed’s aggressive rate increases and tightening credit conditions,’’ said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economics at Fitch Ratings. “The bottom line is that the U.S. economy is still growing above trend, and the Fed will be wondering if they need to do more to slow this economy.”

    In fighting inflation, which last year hit a four-decade high, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022, most recently on Wednesday. The resulting higher costs for a broad range of loans — from mortgages and credit cards to auto loans and business borrowing — have taken a toll on growth.

    Still, they have yet to tip the United States into a widely forecast recession. Optimism has been growing that a recession isn’t coming after all, that the Fed can engineer a so-called “soft-landing” — slowing the economy enough to bring inflation down to its 2% annual target without wrecking an expansion of surprising durability.

    This week, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for U.S. economic growth for all of 2023 to 1.8%. Though that would be down from 2.1% growth for 2022, it marked an increase from the 1.6% growth that the IMF had predicted for 2023 back in April.

    At a news conference Wednesday after the Fed announced its latest quarter-point rate hike, Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the central bank’s staff economists no longer foresee a recession in the United States. In April, the minutes of the central bank’s March meeting had revealed that the Fed’s staff economists envisioned a “mild” recession later this year.

    In his remarks, Powell noted that the economy has proved resilient despite the Fed’s rapid rate hikes. And he said he still thinks a soft landing remains possible.

    By any measure, the American job market has shown itself to be remarkably strong. At 3.6% in June, the unemployment rate hovers just above a five-decade low. A surge in retirements after COVID-19 hit in early 2020 has contributed to a shortage of workers across the country, forcing many companies to raise wages to attract or keep staffers.

    Higher pay and job security are giving Americans the confidence and financial wherewithal to keep shopping. Indeed, consumer spending, which drives about 70% of economic activity, rose at a 4.2% annual rate from January through March, the fastest quarterly pace in nearly two years. Americans have kept spending — crowding airplanestraveling overseas and flocking to concerts and movie theaters.

    And the Conference Board, a business research group, reported Tuesday that Americans this month are in their sunniest mood in two years, based on the board’s reading of consumer confidence.

    Indeed, many consumers are finally enjoying some relief from spiking prices: Year-over-year inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, has eased consistently ever since. Inflation-adjusted hourly pay rose 1.4% in June from a year earlier, the sharpest such gain since early 2021.

    “Growth is outpacing expectations even as the monetary policy stance has become restrictive,″ said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “And inflation, while high, is moving in the right direction. A strong household sector that continues to benefit from positive job growth and rising real incomes should keep growth on a positive trajectory this year.″

    Still, the risk remains that the weight of ever-higher interest rates will eventually slow borrowing so much — for homes, cars, renovations, business expansions and other costly expenses — as to pull the economy into recession.

    Among the economy’s weakest links has been the housing market. In June, sales of previously occupied homes sank to their slowest pace since January. The problem is that a near-historic low number of homes for sale and higher mortgage rates kept many would-be homebuyers on the sidelines. Sales fell 19% compared with June 2022 and were down 23% through the first half of the year.


    Our maga friends would have you believe otherwise. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Options
    Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 16,773
    Really hope that's the last time the Fed raises rates, because we're getting to the point where we're beyond the point of ridiculousness on it.

    Some general observations on my part:
    • Raising rates to battle inflation is good
    • Continuing to raise rates as inflation falls is bad
    • Raising rates to counteract job and wage growth is also bad
    • The housing market - and more importantly the extremely scarce supply - needs to be addressed ASAP
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,726
    Really hope that's the last time the Fed raises rates, because we're getting to the point where we're beyond the point of ridiculousness on it.

    Some general observations on my part:
    • Raising rates to battle inflation is good
    • Continuing to raise rates as inflation falls is bad
    • Raising rates to counteract job and wage growth is also bad
    • The housing market - and more importantly the extremely scarce supply - needs to be addressed ASAP

    major rethink due imo in how determinations are made. data from pandemic is paramount.

    what we know from the past, major govt intervention(new deal) coupled with a major war(again govt money) led us out of depression.

    thinking since then both by fed and political people are way out of balance. virtually everything they said would happen given conditions didnt. why?
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,726
    significant govt contracts, which is why they were given the loan in the first place, later seen as a poor decision on that administration....

    pay attention. this ripples through the economy. shit WILL get moved. but at a price.


     
    Yellow is shutting down and headed for bankruptcy, the Teamsters Union says. Here's what to know
    BY WYATTE GRANTHAM-PHILIPS
    Today

    NEW YORK (AP) — Trucking company Yellow Corp. has shut down operations and is headed for a bankruptcy filing, according to the Teamsters Union and multiple media reports.

    After years of financial struggles, reports of Yellow preparing for bankruptcy emerged last week — as the Nashville, Tennessee-based trucker saw customers leave in large numbers. Yellow shut down operations on Sunday, according to the Wall Street Journal, following the layoffs of hundreds of nonunion employees on Friday.

    In an announcement early Monday, the Teamsters said that the union received legal notice confirming Yellow was ceasing operations and filing for bankruptcy.

    “Today’s news is unfortunate but not surprising. Yellow has historically proven that it could not manage itself despite billions of dollars in worker concessions and hundreds of millions in bailout funding from the federal government,” Teamsters general president Sean O’Brien said in a statement. “This is a sad day for workers and the American freight industry.”

    The Associated Press reached out to Yellow for comment on Monday. No bankruptcy filings had gone live as of the early morning.

    The bankruptcy reports have renewed attention around Yellow’s ongoing negotiations with unionized workers, a $700 million pandemic-era loan from the government and other bills the trucker has racked up over time. Yellow, formerly known as YRC Worldwide Inc., is one of the nation’s largest less-than-truckload carriers. The company's reported closure puts 30,000 jobs at risk.

    Here’s what you need to know.

    WHAT WOULD BANKRUPTCY MEAN FOR YELLOW?

    According to Satish Jindel, president of transportation and logistics firm SJ Consulting, Yellow handled an average of 49,000 shipments per day in 2022. Last week, he estimated that number was down to between 10,000 and 15,000 daily shipments.

    With customers leaving — as well reports of Yellow stopping freight pickups last week — bankruptcy would “be the end of Yellow,” Jindel told The Associated Press, noting increased risk for liquidation.

    “The likelihood of them surviving and remaining solvent diminishes really by the day,” added Bruce Chan, a research director at investment banking firm Stifel.

    Yellow declined to comment when contacted by The Associated Press on Friday. In a Wednesday statement to The Journal, the company said it was continuing “to prepare for a range of contingencies.” On Thursday, Yellow said it was in talks with multiple parties about selling its third-party logistics organization.

    Even if Yellow was able to sell its logistics firm, it would “not generate a sufficient amount of cash to keep them operational on any sort of permanent basis,” Chan said. “Without a major equity injection, it would be very difficult for them to survive.”

    HOW MUCH DEBT DOES YELLOW HAVE?

    As of late March, Yellow had an outstanding debt of about $1.5 billion. Of that, $729.2 million was owed to the federal government.

    In 2020, under the Trump administration, the Treasury Department granted the company a $700 million pandemic-era loan on national security grounds. Last month, a congressional probe concluded that the Treasury and Defense Departments “made missteps” in this decision — and noted that Yellow’s “precarious financial position at the time of the loan, and continued struggles, expose taxpayers to a significant risk of loss.”

    The government loan is due in September 2024. As of March, Yellow had made $54.8 million in interest payments and repaid just $230 million of the principal owed, according to government documents.

    Yellow’s current finances and prospect of bankruptcy “is probably two decades in the making,” Chan said, pointing to poor management and strategic decisions dating back to the early 2000s. “At this point, after each party has bailed them out so many times, there is a limited appetite to do that anymore.”

    In May, Yellow reported a loss of $54.6 million, a decline of $1.06 per share, for its first quarter of 2023. Operating revenue was about $1.16 billion in the period.

    A Wednesday investors note from financial service firm Stephens estimated that Yellow could be burning between $9 million and $10 million each day. Using a liquidity disclosure from earlier this month, Yellow had roughly $100 million in cash at the end of June, the note added — estimating that the company has been burning through increasing amounts of money through July.

    “It is reasonable to believe that the Company could breach its $35 mil. liquidity requirement at any moment,” Stephens analyst Jack Atkins and associate Grant Smith wrote.

    DID THE COMPANY JUST AVERT A STRIKE?

    Last week's reports of bankruptcy preparations arrived just days after a strike from the Teamsters, which represents Yellow’s 22,000 unionized workers, was averted.

    A series of heated exchanges have built up between the Teamsters and Yellow, who sued the union in June after alleging it was “unjustifiably blocking” restructuring plans needed for the company’s survival. The Teamsters called the litigation “baseless” — with O’Brien pointing to Yellow’s “decades of gross mismanagement,” which included exhausting the $700 million federal loan.

    On July 23, a pension fund agreed to extend health benefits for workers at two Yellow Corp. operating companies, averting a strike — and giving Yellow “30 days to pay its bills,” notably $50 million that Yellow failed to pay the Central States Health and Welfare Fund on July 15, the union said. While the strike didn’t occur, talks of a walkout may have caused some Yellow customers to pull back, Chan said.

    “The financial struggles of Yellow are not related to the union and the contracts,” Jindel said, pointing to management’s responsibility around its services and prices. He added the union wages from Yellow are “lower than any competitor.”

    WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF YELLOW WENT UNDER?

    As Yellow customers take their shipments to other carriers, like FedEx or ABF Freight, prices will go up.

    Yellow’s prices have historically been the cheapest compared to other carriers, Jindel said. “That’s why they obviously were not making money,” he added. “And while there is capacity with the other LTL carriers to handle the diversions from Yellow, it will come at a high price for (current shippers and customers) of Yellow.”

    Chan adds that we’re in an interesting time for the LTL marketplace — noting that, if Yellow liquidates, “the freight would find a home” with other carriers, which may not have been true in recent years.

    “It may take time, but there’s room for it to be absorbed,” he said.


    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,985
    mickeyrat said:
    significant govt contracts, which is why they were given the loan in the first place, later seen as a poor decision on that administration....

    pay attention. this ripples through the economy. shit WILL get moved. but at a price.


     
    Yellow is shutting down and headed for bankruptcy, the Teamsters Union says. Here's what to know
    BY WYATTE GRANTHAM-PHILIPS
    Today

    NEW YORK (AP) — Trucking company Yellow Corp. has shut down operations and is headed for a bankruptcy filing, according to the Teamsters Union and multiple media reports.

    After years of financial struggles, reports of Yellow preparing for bankruptcy emerged last week — as the Nashville, Tennessee-based trucker saw customers leave in large numbers. Yellow shut down operations on Sunday, according to the Wall Street Journal, following the layoffs of hundreds of nonunion employees on Friday.

    In an announcement early Monday, the Teamsters said that the union received legal notice confirming Yellow was ceasing operations and filing for bankruptcy.

    “Today’s news is unfortunate but not surprising. Yellow has historically proven that it could not manage itself despite billions of dollars in worker concessions and hundreds of millions in bailout funding from the federal government,” Teamsters general president Sean O’Brien said in a statement. “This is a sad day for workers and the American freight industry.”

    The Associated Press reached out to Yellow for comment on Monday. No bankruptcy filings had gone live as of the early morning.

    The bankruptcy reports have renewed attention around Yellow’s ongoing negotiations with unionized workers, a $700 million pandemic-era loan from the government and other bills the trucker has racked up over time. Yellow, formerly known as YRC Worldwide Inc., is one of the nation’s largest less-than-truckload carriers. The company's reported closure puts 30,000 jobs at risk.

    Here’s what you need to know.

    WHAT WOULD BANKRUPTCY MEAN FOR YELLOW?

    According to Satish Jindel, president of transportation and logistics firm SJ Consulting, Yellow handled an average of 49,000 shipments per day in 2022. Last week, he estimated that number was down to between 10,000 and 15,000 daily shipments.

    With customers leaving — as well reports of Yellow stopping freight pickups last week — bankruptcy would “be the end of Yellow,” Jindel told The Associated Press, noting increased risk for liquidation.

    “The likelihood of them surviving and remaining solvent diminishes really by the day,” added Bruce Chan, a research director at investment banking firm Stifel.

    Yellow declined to comment when contacted by The Associated Press on Friday. In a Wednesday statement to The Journal, the company said it was continuing “to prepare for a range of contingencies.” On Thursday, Yellow said it was in talks with multiple parties about selling its third-party logistics organization.

    Even if Yellow was able to sell its logistics firm, it would “not generate a sufficient amount of cash to keep them operational on any sort of permanent basis,” Chan said. “Without a major equity injection, it would be very difficult for them to survive.”

    HOW MUCH DEBT DOES YELLOW HAVE?

    As of late March, Yellow had an outstanding debt of about $1.5 billion. Of that, $729.2 million was owed to the federal government.

    In 2020, under the Trump administration, the Treasury Department granted the company a $700 million pandemic-era loan on national security grounds. Last month, a congressional probe concluded that the Treasury and Defense Departments “made missteps” in this decision — and noted that Yellow’s “precarious financial position at the time of the loan, and continued struggles, expose taxpayers to a significant risk of loss.”

    The government loan is due in September 2024. As of March, Yellow had made $54.8 million in interest payments and repaid just $230 million of the principal owed, according to government documents.

    Yellow’s current finances and prospect of bankruptcy “is probably two decades in the making,” Chan said, pointing to poor management and strategic decisions dating back to the early 2000s. “At this point, after each party has bailed them out so many times, there is a limited appetite to do that anymore.”

    In May, Yellow reported a loss of $54.6 million, a decline of $1.06 per share, for its first quarter of 2023. Operating revenue was about $1.16 billion in the period.

    A Wednesday investors note from financial service firm Stephens estimated that Yellow could be burning between $9 million and $10 million each day. Using a liquidity disclosure from earlier this month, Yellow had roughly $100 million in cash at the end of June, the note added — estimating that the company has been burning through increasing amounts of money through July.

    “It is reasonable to believe that the Company could breach its $35 mil. liquidity requirement at any moment,” Stephens analyst Jack Atkins and associate Grant Smith wrote.

    DID THE COMPANY JUST AVERT A STRIKE?

    Last week's reports of bankruptcy preparations arrived just days after a strike from the Teamsters, which represents Yellow’s 22,000 unionized workers, was averted.

    A series of heated exchanges have built up between the Teamsters and Yellow, who sued the union in June after alleging it was “unjustifiably blocking” restructuring plans needed for the company’s survival. The Teamsters called the litigation “baseless” — with O’Brien pointing to Yellow’s “decades of gross mismanagement,” which included exhausting the $700 million federal loan.

    On July 23, a pension fund agreed to extend health benefits for workers at two Yellow Corp. operating companies, averting a strike — and giving Yellow “30 days to pay its bills,” notably $50 million that Yellow failed to pay the Central States Health and Welfare Fund on July 15, the union said. While the strike didn’t occur, talks of a walkout may have caused some Yellow customers to pull back, Chan said.

    “The financial struggles of Yellow are not related to the union and the contracts,” Jindel said, pointing to management’s responsibility around its services and prices. He added the union wages from Yellow are “lower than any competitor.”

    WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF YELLOW WENT UNDER?

    As Yellow customers take their shipments to other carriers, like FedEx or ABF Freight, prices will go up.

    Yellow’s prices have historically been the cheapest compared to other carriers, Jindel said. “That’s why they obviously were not making money,” he added. “And while there is capacity with the other LTL carriers to handle the diversions from Yellow, it will come at a high price for (current shippers and customers) of Yellow.”

    Chan adds that we’re in an interesting time for the LTL marketplace — noting that, if Yellow liquidates, “the freight would find a home” with other carriers, which may not have been true in recent years.

    “It may take time, but there’s room for it to be absorbed,” he said.


    Perfect move for Amazon to take over but Bezos doesn't like unions.
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,726
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,726
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    mickeyrat said:
    Yet prices on everything are still sky high and we have less money left at the end of the month than when we had a lower household income.  Sure the above numbers look good, but that is only a fraction of what the economy looks like for most people whose net worth is presumably less than 700K
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,726
    edited September 2023
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    Yet prices on everything are still sky high and we have less money left at the end of the month than when we had a lower household income.  Sure the above numbers look good, but that is only a fraction of what the economy looks like for most people whose net worth is presumably less than 700K

    And its reasonable to argue a measure of price gouging is responsible for a good chunk of what we all are experiencing.

    that might require Congress to act in ways beyond exec orders
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,726
    think also , inflation had been held artificially low since 08 and this could be seen as correction to an extent, no?
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Options
    static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    mickeyrat said:
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    Yet prices on everything are still sky high and we have less money left at the end of the month than when we had a lower household income.  Sure the above numbers look good, but that is only a fraction of what the economy looks like for most people whose net worth is presumably less than 700K

    And its reasonable to argue a measure of price gouging is responsible for a good chunk of what we all are experiencing.

    that might require Congress to act in ways beyond exec orders
    I agree 100% IMO much has to do with the digital surveillance state in the IT sectors calculating just how much money can be squeezed out of a product before the masses come with pitchforks..  I have yet to vote for a candidate based on something as ephemeral as the scholarly view of the economy while someone is in office. 
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Options
    static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    mickeyrat said:
    think also , inflation had been held artificially low since 08 and this could be seen as correction to an extent, no?
    I can also agree here, but until prices come down or wages/income go beyond inflation, I won't be celebrating any academic interpretations of numbers.  
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Options
    Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 16,773
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    think also , inflation had been held artificially low since 08 and this could be seen as correction to an extent, no?
    I can also agree here, but until prices come down or wages/income go beyond inflation, I won't be celebrating any academic interpretations of numbers.  
    Wage growth this year has outpaced inflation.
  • Options
    static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    static111 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    think also , inflation had been held artificially low since 08 and this could be seen as correction to an extent, no?
    I can also agree here, but until prices come down or wages/income go beyond inflation, I won't be celebrating any academic interpretations of numbers.  
    Wage growth this year has outpaced inflation.
    In the academic economy, but not the real economy. If you get an increase of 1.2% after a previous year decline of 3.2% that is hardly something to celebrate. Add inflation and that's nothing.  Rents and home prices aren't coming down nor are interest rates.

      Maybe in a vacuum looking at a small part of the economy as an indicator to what could happen long term this is good news, but as far as the bigger picture, you still haven't made up for what was lost.   I'm not saying the economy is terrible or if it was that it would have anything to do with who I vote for, just that no reporting I've seen looks like a reason to be celebrating. Prices are still high, buying power is down, bills are due, we have a long way to go to catch up with even being on the same level we were pre inflation, etc. 

    from NBC

    "While real wages for the median person declined slightly through 2022, in 2023, we've seen inflation fall, while wages have not fallen by as much," said Mike Konczal, a director at the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank. 

    Konczal believes it is becoming increasingly clear that much of the post-pandemic inflation affecting consumers was caused by supply chain issues and the repercussions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    What's not driving inflation? The very wage growth U.S. workers are enjoying, Konczal suggested. "Wage growth at 4.5% over this summer — that is absolutely consistent with inflation continuing to fall," he said. 

    It's important to note that these gains are relative. High prices were so extreme in the pandemic and post-pandemic periods that inflation-adjusted wages have climbed only about 5 cents overall since the winter of 2019-2020."


    From ChickenNoodleNews

    "In June, for the first time in 26 months, US workers’ real weekly earnings (a week’s worth of wages adjusted for inflation) grew on an annual basis, according to data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Annual real weekly wages were up 0.6% last month, a rate that’s a tick below the 0.7% gain seen in February 2020."


      .6%...thats 60 cents for every hundred dollars you make a week. After months of inflation that doesn't even buy most people a dozen eggs a week.

    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
Sign In or Register to comment.