I was saying this back during the "supply chain" ruse. When the supply chain was flowing again prices still got raised. Hell Toyota right now is making less cars and charging more as all car dealers are.
And a few on here thought I was nuts.
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mickeyrat
up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,932
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing and SEEING this as a bunch of bullshit, not all of it, but a good amount.
My sister in law is a huge maga....a few months ago she was going on and on about the price of eggs to me. She couldn't believe that they were charging $1/egg and how awful that was. Turns out she was looking at the Speedway gas station.
A day or so after that conversation I was at our local Meijer and bought an 18 pack of large eggs for like $3.50
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing and SEEING this as a bunch of bullshit, not all of it, but a good amount.
My sister in law is a huge maga....a few months ago she was going on and on about the price of eggs to me. She couldn't believe that they were charging $1/egg and how awful that was. Turns out she was looking at the Speedway gas station.
A day or so after that conversation I was at our local Meijer and bought an 18 pack of large eggs for like $3.50
Apparently this is what's happening with turkeys. MAGA is buying outrageously priced turkeys (like $90 or more) and "thanking" Biden. Meanwhile, turkeys can still easily be found for like $25.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,334
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing and SEEING this as a bunch of bullshit, not all of it, but a good amount.
My sister in law is a huge maga....a few months ago she was going on and on about the price of eggs to me. She couldn't believe that they were charging $1/egg and how awful that was. Turns out she was looking at the Speedway gas station.
A day or so after that conversation I was at our local Meijer and bought an 18 pack of large eggs for like $3.50
Morons. Meanwhile you have people like Jason Chaffetz on Fox telling people he paid $90 for a turkey when they're like a $1.50 a pound or something...less than they were a year ago.
FU Brandon! That’s not what I paid for the turkey at the same place as I filled up my truck! Damn you! From Letter From An American:
Falling prices for travel and for the foods usually on a Thanksgiving table are news the White House is celebrating. Gas prices have dropped an average of $1.70 from their peak, airfares are down 13%, and car rental prices are down about 10% over the past year.
According to the American Farm Bureau, the price of an average Thanksgiving dinner has dropped by 4.5%. The cost of turkeys has dropped more than 5% from last year, when an avian flu epidemic meant nearly 58 million birds were slaughtered (this year, growers have lost about 4.6 million birds to the same cause). Whipping cream, cranberries, and pie crust have also dropped in price.
But plenty of grocery prices are still rising, and Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) has taken on the issue, documenting how “corporations are making record profits on the backs of American families.” In a public report, Casey noted that from July 2020 through July 2022, inflation rose by 14%, but corporate profits rose by 75%, five times as fast. A family making $68,000 a year in 2022 paid $6,740 in that period to “corporate executives and wealthy shareholders.” In 2023, that amount will be at least $3,546.
The report notes that the cost for chicken went up 20% in 2021 as Tyson Foods doubled their profits from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022; Tyson has been ordered to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties and restitution for “illegally conspiring to inflate chicken prices.” PepsiCo’s chief financial officer said in April 2023 that even though inflation was dropping, their prices would not. He said “consumers generally look at our products and say ‘you know what—they are worth paying a little bit more for.’”
President Biden has launched a campaign to push back on corporate profiteering, including cracking down on the practice of so-called junk fees—unexpected hidden costs for air travel, car rentals, credit cards, cable television, ticket sales, and so on. (The airline industry collected more than $6.7 billion last year in baggage fees, for example.)
But Tony Romm of the Washington Post explained on Sunday that corporate lobbyists are warring with the Biden administration to stop the crackdown. An airline lobbyist testified at a federal hearing in March that changing the policy would create “confusion and frustration” and that there have been “very few complaints” about the extra costs for bags. The same lobbying group told the Department of Transportation that the government had no data to “demonstrate substantial harm” to passengers. A lobbying group for advertising platforms including Facebook and Google agreed that the Federal Trade Commission had failed to present “sufficient empirical evidence” that junk fees are a problem.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing and SEEING this as a bunch of bullshit, not all of it, but a good amount.
My sister in law is a huge maga....a few months ago she was going on and on about the price of eggs to me. She couldn't believe that they were charging $1/egg and how awful that was. Turns out she was looking at the Speedway gas station.
A day or so after that conversation I was at our local Meijer and bought an 18 pack of large eggs for like $3.50
Morons. Meanwhile you have people like Jason Chaffetz on Fox telling people he paid $90 for a turkey when they're like a $1.50 a pound or something...less than they were a year ago.
The Outrage Spin Machine never ends over there.
If u buy a fresh, free range I can see that butyou can get a free turkey for spending x amount at your local supermarket.
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing and SEEING this as a bunch of bullshit, not all of it, but a good amount.
My sister in law is a huge maga....a few months ago she was going on and on about the price of eggs to me. She couldn't believe that they were charging $1/egg and how awful that was. Turns out she was looking at the Speedway gas station.
A day or so after that conversation I was at our local Meijer and bought an 18 pack of large eggs for like $3.50
lol was she looking at the hardboiled single eggs?
FU Brandon! That’s not what I paid for the turkey at the same place as I filled up my truck! Damn you! From Letter From An American:
Falling prices for travel and for the foods usually on a Thanksgiving table are news the White House is celebrating. Gas prices have dropped an average of $1.70 from their peak, airfares are down 13%, and car rental prices are down about 10% over the past year.
According to the American Farm Bureau, the price of an average Thanksgiving dinner has dropped by 4.5%. The cost of turkeys has dropped more than 5% from last year, when an avian flu epidemic meant nearly 58 million birds were slaughtered (this year, growers have lost about 4.6 million birds to the same cause). Whipping cream, cranberries, and pie crust have also dropped in price.
But plenty of grocery prices are still rising, and Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) has taken on the issue, documenting how “corporations are making record profits on the backs of American families.” In a public report, Casey noted that from July 2020 through July 2022, inflation rose by 14%, but corporate profits rose by 75%, five times as fast. A family making $68,000 a year in 2022 paid $6,740 in that period to “corporate executives and wealthy shareholders.” In 2023, that amount will be at least $3,546.
The report notes that the cost for chicken went up 20% in 2021 as Tyson Foods doubled their profits from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022; Tyson has been ordered to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties and restitution for “illegally conspiring to inflate chicken prices.” PepsiCo’s chief financial officer said in April 2023 that even though inflation was dropping, their prices would not. He said “consumers generally look at our products and say ‘you know what—they are worth paying a little bit more for.’”
President Biden has launched a campaign to push back on corporate profiteering, including cracking down on the practice of so-called junk fees—unexpected hidden costs for air travel, car rentals, credit cards, cable television, ticket sales, and so on. (The airline industry collected more than $6.7 billion last year in baggage fees, for example.)
But Tony Romm of the Washington Post explained on Sunday that corporate lobbyists are warring with the Biden administration to stop the crackdown. An airline lobbyist testified at a federal hearing in March that changing the policy would create “confusion and frustration” and that there have been “very few complaints” about the extra costs for bags. The same lobbying group told the Department of Transportation that the government had no data to “demonstrate substantial harm” to passengers. A lobbying group for advertising platforms including Facebook and Google agreed that the Federal Trade Commission had failed to present “sufficient empirical evidence” that junk fees are a problem.
Our local news station earlier in the month said there "might be a turkey shortage". I actually yelled at the tv. It was all a bunch of horseshit.
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mickeyrat
up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,932
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
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VIDEO05:36
Fed’s favorite gauge shows inflation rose 0.2% in October and 3.5% from a year ago, as expected
Inflation as measured by personal spending increased in line with expectations in October, possibly giving the Federal Reserve more incentive to hold rates steady and perhaps start cutting in 2024, according to a data release Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Both numbers aligned with the Dow Jones consensus.
Headline inflation was flat on the month and at a 3% rate for the 12-month period, the release also showed. Energy prices fell 2.6% on the month, helping keep overall inflation in check, even as food prices increased 0.2%.
Goods prices saw a 0.3% decrease while services rose 0.2%. On the services side, the biggest gainers were international travel, health care and food services and accommodations. In goods, gasoline led the gainers.
Personal income and spending both rose 0.2% on the month, also meeting estimates and indicating that consumers are keeping pace with inflation.
While the public more closely watches the Labor Department’s consumer price index as an inflation measure, the Fed prefers the core PCE reading. The former measure primarily looks at what goods and services cost, while the latter focuses on what people actually spend, adjusting for consumer behavior when prices fluctuate.
In other economic news Thursday, initial weekly jobless claims rose to 218,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous period though slightly below the 220,000 estimate. However, continuing claims, which run a week behind, surged to 1.93 million, an increase of 86,000 and the highest level since Nov. 27, 2021, the Labor Department said.
“The Fed is on hold for now but their pivot to rate cuts is getting closer,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Inflation is clearly slowing, and the job market is softening faster than expected.”
Markets already had been pricing in the likelihood that the Fed is done raising interest rates this cycle, and the PCE reading, along with signs of a loosening labor market, could solidify that stance. Along with the anticipation that the rate hikes are over, markets also are pricing in the equivalent of five quarter percentage point rate cuts in 2024.
New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday that he expects inflation to continue to drift lower, finally hitting the Fed’s 2% target in 2025. However, he said policymakers will need to stay vigilant and keep rates at a “restrictive” level.
“My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate,” he said in prepared remarks for a speech in New York. “I expect it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some me to fully restore balance and to bring inflation back to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis.”
The fed funds rate, the central bank’s benchmark level for short-term lending, is targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, its highest in more than 22 years. After implementing 11 hikes since March 2022, the Fed skipped its last two meetings, and most policymakers of late have been indicating that they are content now to watch the impact of the previous increases work their way through the economy.
Other economic signals lately have shown the economy to be in fairly good shape, though several Fed officials recently have said the data doesn’t square with comments they are hearing on the ground.
“I’m hearing consumers slowing down,” Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Wednesday at the CNBC CFO Council Summit. “I’m not hearing [the] consumer falling off the table. I’m hearing normalizing, not recession, but I am hearing consumer slowing down.”
The Fed’s inflation report comes the same day as encouraging news from the euro zone.
Headline inflation there fell to 2.4% on a 12-month basis, though core, which excludes food, energy and tobacco, was still at 3.6%. Like the Fed, the European Central Bank targets 2% as a healthy inflation level.
Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,334
edited December 2023
10 year inching closer and closer to dropping below 4%. Fed may have actually walked that tight rope to perfection and avoided a recession, though not out of the woods yet.
We're already helping folks who purchased earlier this year to streamline down to a lower rate...giggity
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VIDEO05:02
Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.
With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.
Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could end a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing. Following the release of the decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points, surpassing 37,000 for the first time.
The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years.
In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously.
Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off its balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening.
Inflation ‘eased over the past year’
The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022.
“Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news,” Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference.
That echoed new language in the post-meeting statement. The committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.” Fed officials see core inflation falling to 3.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. Finally, it gets back to the 2% target in 2026.
Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America’s calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal.
The statement also noted that the economy “has slowed,” after saying in November that activity had “expanded at a strong pace.”
In the news conference, Powell said: “Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed substantially from the outsized pace seen in the third quarter. Even so, GDP is on track to expand around 2.5% for the year as a whole.”
Committee members upgraded gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. Projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years.
Officials have stressed their willingness to hike rates again if inflation flares up. However, most have said they can be patient now as they watch the impact the previous policy tightening moves are having on the U.S. economy.
Stubbornly high prices have exacted a political toll on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has suffered in large part because of negative sentiment on how he has handled the economy. There had been some speculation that the Fed could be reluctant to make any dramatic policy actions during a presidential election year, which looms large in 2024.
However, with real rates, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, running high, the Fed would be more likely to act if the inflation data continues to cooperate.
10 year inching closer and closer to dropping below 4%. Fed may have actually walked that tight rope to perfection and avoided a recession, though not out of the woods yet.
We're already helping folks who purchased earlier this year to streamline down to a lower rate...giggity
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VIDEO05:02
Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.
With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.
Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could end a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing. Following the release of the decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points, surpassing 37,000 for the first time.
The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years.
In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously.
Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off its balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening.
Inflation ‘eased over the past year’
The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022.
“Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news,” Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference.
That echoed new language in the post-meeting statement. The committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.” Fed officials see core inflation falling to 3.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. Finally, it gets back to the 2% target in 2026.
Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America’s calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal.
The statement also noted that the economy “has slowed,” after saying in November that activity had “expanded at a strong pace.”
In the news conference, Powell said: “Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed substantially from the outsized pace seen in the third quarter. Even so, GDP is on track to expand around 2.5% for the year as a whole.”
Committee members upgraded gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. Projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years.
Officials have stressed their willingness to hike rates again if inflation flares up. However, most have said they can be patient now as they watch the impact the previous policy tightening moves are having on the U.S. economy.
Stubbornly high prices have exacted a political toll on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has suffered in large part because of negative sentiment on how he has handled the economy. There had been some speculation that the Fed could be reluctant to make any dramatic policy actions during a presidential election year, which looms large in 2024.
However, with real rates, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, running high, the Fed would be more likely to act if the inflation data continues to cooperate.
Honestly, if they pull this soft landing off, I will be so impressed. It's been a really amazing job. Now there is not "no effect" on the economy. I am seeing ramifications of the rate hikes. I work with a ton of what are known as "Fintechs". These are non-bank lenders. They use institutional money to lend to consumers. You know the names, you just don't know that they are not lending out of deposits. These companies are really struggling right now because they have no spread between what they have to borrow at, and what they can charge consumers. The whole financial side is falling apart and they are RIFing people left and right. Good, smart people.
On the bright side, I haven't been able to hire good people for four years, and now there are a ton in the market. The pool of candidates has really improved in quality in the last year.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,334
10 year inching closer and closer to dropping below 4%. Fed may have actually walked that tight rope to perfection and avoided a recession, though not out of the woods yet.
We're already helping folks who purchased earlier this year to streamline down to a lower rate...giggity
SHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email
WATCH NOW
VIDEO05:02
Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.
With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.
Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could end a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing. Following the release of the decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points, surpassing 37,000 for the first time.
The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years.
In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously.
Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off its balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening.
Inflation ‘eased over the past year’
The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022.
“Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news,” Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference.
That echoed new language in the post-meeting statement. The committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.” Fed officials see core inflation falling to 3.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. Finally, it gets back to the 2% target in 2026.
Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America’s calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal.
The statement also noted that the economy “has slowed,” after saying in November that activity had “expanded at a strong pace.”
In the news conference, Powell said: “Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed substantially from the outsized pace seen in the third quarter. Even so, GDP is on track to expand around 2.5% for the year as a whole.”
Committee members upgraded gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. Projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years.
Officials have stressed their willingness to hike rates again if inflation flares up. However, most have said they can be patient now as they watch the impact the previous policy tightening moves are having on the U.S. economy.
Stubbornly high prices have exacted a political toll on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has suffered in large part because of negative sentiment on how he has handled the economy. There had been some speculation that the Fed could be reluctant to make any dramatic policy actions during a presidential election year, which looms large in 2024.
However, with real rates, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, running high, the Fed would be more likely to act if the inflation data continues to cooperate.
Honestly, if they pull this soft landing off, I will be so impressed. It's been a really amazing job. Now there is not "no effect" on the economy. I am seeing ramifications of the rate hikes. I work with a ton of what are known as "Fintechs". These are non-bank lenders. They use institutional money to lend to consumers. You know the names, you just don't know that they are not lending out of deposits. These companies are really struggling right now because they have no spread between what they have to borrow at, and what they can charge consumers. The whole financial side is falling apart and they are RIFing people left and right. Good, smart people.
On the bright side, I haven't been able to hire good people for four years, and now there are a ton in the market. The pool of candidates has really improved in quality in the last year.
I follow a lot so called "experts" on twitter and they're mostly all these doom and gloomers who will find a way to spin any economic news as negative. They're having a rough go at it lately...
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mickeyrat
up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,932
Chart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR:CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking
demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This
statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier,
but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap
between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload
demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it
has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible
to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of
oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21
according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender
volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and
have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily
tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods
has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index
(LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both
inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth
in consumption.
While
he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the
numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief
economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet
against the American consumer.”
Possibly
the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation
prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of
logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and
capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are
contractionary.
The
transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and
has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the
November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024,
indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While
every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that
the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward
equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking
at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities
data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course
is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight
webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly
aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last
year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this
level of market downturn.
While
Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will
turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there
will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically
speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into
focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically
overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the
“soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately,
the solution to the freight market means that several first have to
lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this
too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that
provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight
markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to
help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a
Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the
front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on
FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR
aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts
and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want
to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market
update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree
in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking
before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments,
such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation
experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Chart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR:CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking
demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This
statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier,
but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap
between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload
demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it
has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible
to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of
oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21
according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender
volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and
have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily
tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods
has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index
(LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both
inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth
in consumption.
While
he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the
numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief
economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet
against the American consumer.”
Possibly
the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation
prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of
logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and
capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are
contractionary.
The
transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and
has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the
November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024,
indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While
every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that
the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward
equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking
at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities
data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course
is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight
webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly
aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last
year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this
level of market downturn.
While
Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will
turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there
will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically
speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into
focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically
overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the
“soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately,
the solution to the freight market means that several first have to
lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this
too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that
provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight
markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to
help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a
Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the
front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on
FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR
aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts
and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want
to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market
update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree
in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking
before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments,
such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation
experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.
Chart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR:CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking
demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This
statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier,
but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap
between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload
demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it
has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible
to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of
oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21
according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender
volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and
have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily
tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods
has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index
(LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both
inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth
in consumption.
While
he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the
numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief
economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet
against the American consumer.”
Possibly
the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation
prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of
logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and
capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are
contractionary.
The
transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and
has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the
November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024,
indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While
every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that
the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward
equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking
at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities
data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course
is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight
webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly
aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last
year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this
level of market downturn.
While
Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will
turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there
will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically
speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into
focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically
overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the
“soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately,
the solution to the freight market means that several first have to
lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this
too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that
provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight
markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to
help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a
Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the
front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on
FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR
aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts
and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want
to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market
update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree
in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking
before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments,
such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation
experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.
So this means that America is still not building things and importing at the same time we are still consuming?
for that question, you'd need to look at port traffic volume, then look at the transportation capacity in that sector.
I see more and more warehouse space going up and have since before the pandemic.
cant tell though if this comment was sarcastic or not. but benefit of the doubt, how quickly do you believe manufacturing comes back from announcing the admin push for it to production lines starting?
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Chart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR:CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking
demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This
statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier,
but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap
between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload
demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it
has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible
to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of
oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21
according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender
volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and
have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily
tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods
has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index
(LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both
inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth
in consumption.
While
he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the
numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief
economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet
against the American consumer.”
Possibly
the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation
prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of
logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and
capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are
contractionary.
The
transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and
has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the
November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024,
indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While
every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that
the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward
equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking
at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities
data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course
is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight
webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly
aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last
year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this
level of market downturn.
While
Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will
turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there
will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically
speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into
focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically
overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the
“soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately,
the solution to the freight market means that several first have to
lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this
too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that
provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight
markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to
help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a
Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the
front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on
FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR
aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts
and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want
to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market
update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree
in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking
before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments,
such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation
experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.
So this means that America is still not building things and importing at the same time we are still consuming?
for that question, you'd need to look at port traffic volume, then look at the transportation capacity in that sector.
I see more and more warehouse space going up and have since before the pandemic.
cant tell though if this comment was sarcastic or not. but benefit of the doubt, how quickly do you believe manufacturing comes back from announcing the admin push for it to production lines starting?
Tongue in cheek comment.
That being said, we are making what, 5 chip making plants here in the US?
If we could start up manufacturing again on a bigger scale this country would be a big boom for all over.
U say warehouse space. I see storage units and Amazon hubs all over. My dream to open a storage facility is all but gone now. I missed that boat...
0
Options
mickeyrat
up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,932
Chart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR:CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking
demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This
statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier,
but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap
between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload
demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it
has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible
to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of
oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21
according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender
volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and
have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily
tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods
has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index
(LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both
inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth
in consumption.
While
he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the
numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief
economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet
against the American consumer.”
Possibly
the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation
prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of
logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and
capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are
contractionary.
The
transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and
has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the
November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024,
indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While
every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that
the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward
equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking
at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities
data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course
is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight
webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly
aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last
year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this
level of market downturn.
While
Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will
turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there
will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically
speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into
focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically
overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the
“soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately,
the solution to the freight market means that several first have to
lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this
too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that
provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight
markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to
help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a
Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the
front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on
FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR
aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts
and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want
to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market
update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree
in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking
before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments,
such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation
experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.
So this means that America is still not building things and importing at the same time we are still consuming?
for that question, you'd need to look at port traffic volume, then look at the transportation capacity in that sector.
I see more and more warehouse space going up and have since before the pandemic.
cant tell though if this comment was sarcastic or not. but benefit of the doubt, how quickly do you believe manufacturing comes back from announcing the admin push for it to production lines starting?
Tongue in cheek comment.
That being said, we are making what, 5 chip making plants here in the US?
If we could start up manufacturing again on a bigger scale this country would be a big boom for all over.
U say warehouse space. I see storage units and Amazon hubs all over. My dream to open a storage facility is all but gone now. I missed that boat...
LI right? How much residential development is happening? especially apartments?
if thats still a goal , suggest looking at smaller but expanding markets that are building out. Ohio as an example. Specifically Columbus and Deleware to our north. still farmland up for development for retail and mixed residential . And all that goes with it. Like storage......
and farther east from us surrounding the intel plant going up. City of Columbus is now growing outside of Franklin County
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Comments
And a few on here thought I was nuts.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
There are no kings inside the gates of eden
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
A day or so after that conversation I was at our local Meijer and bought an 18 pack of large eggs for like $3.50
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
The Outrage Spin Machine never ends over there.
Falling prices for travel and for the foods usually on a Thanksgiving table are news the White House is celebrating. Gas prices have dropped an average of $1.70 from their peak, airfares are down 13%, and car rental prices are down about 10% over the past year.
According to the American Farm Bureau, the price of an average Thanksgiving dinner has dropped by 4.5%. The cost of turkeys has dropped more than 5% from last year, when an avian flu epidemic meant nearly 58 million birds were slaughtered (this year, growers have lost about 4.6 million birds to the same cause). Whipping cream, cranberries, and pie crust have also dropped in price.
But plenty of grocery prices are still rising, and Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) has taken on the issue, documenting how “corporations are making record profits on the backs of American families.” In a public report, Casey noted that from July 2020 through July 2022, inflation rose by 14%, but corporate profits rose by 75%, five times as fast. A family making $68,000 a year in 2022 paid $6,740 in that period to “corporate executives and wealthy shareholders.” In 2023, that amount will be at least $3,546.
The report notes that the cost for chicken went up 20% in 2021 as Tyson Foods doubled their profits from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022; Tyson has been ordered to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties and restitution for “illegally conspiring to inflate chicken prices.” PepsiCo’s chief financial officer said in April 2023 that even though inflation was dropping, their prices would not. He said “consumers generally look at our products and say ‘you know what—they are worth paying a little bit more for.’”
President Biden has launched a campaign to push back on corporate profiteering, including cracking down on the practice of so-called junk fees—unexpected hidden costs for air travel, car rentals, credit cards, cable television, ticket sales, and so on. (The airline industry collected more than $6.7 billion last year in baggage fees, for example.)
But Tony Romm of the Washington Post explained on Sunday that corporate lobbyists are warring with the Biden administration to stop the crackdown. An airline lobbyist testified at a federal hearing in March that changing the policy would create “confusion and frustration” and that there have been “very few complaints” about the extra costs for bags. The same lobbying group told the Department of Transportation that the government had no data to “demonstrate substantial harm” to passengers. A lobbying group for advertising platforms including Facebook and Google agreed that the Federal Trade Commission had failed to present “sufficient empirical evidence” that junk fees are a problem.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
So. About the rates.
Public sector is heating up whereas Private is not. This is for construction right now. That is a good barometer for how rates will be for a bit.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/pce-inflation-report-october-2023-.html
Fed’s favorite gauge shows inflation rose 0.2% in October and 3.5% from a year ago, as expected
Inflation as measured by personal spending increased in line with expectations in October, possibly giving the Federal Reserve more incentive to hold rates steady and perhaps start cutting in 2024, according to a data release Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Both numbers aligned with the Dow Jones consensus.
Headline inflation was flat on the month and at a 3% rate for the 12-month period, the release also showed. Energy prices fell 2.6% on the month, helping keep overall inflation in check, even as food prices increased 0.2%.
Goods prices saw a 0.3% decrease while services rose 0.2%. On the services side, the biggest gainers were international travel, health care and food services and accommodations. In goods, gasoline led the gainers.
Personal income and spending both rose 0.2% on the month, also meeting estimates and indicating that consumers are keeping pace with inflation.
While the public more closely watches the Labor Department’s consumer price index as an inflation measure, the Fed prefers the core PCE reading. The former measure primarily looks at what goods and services cost, while the latter focuses on what people actually spend, adjusting for consumer behavior when prices fluctuate.
In other economic news Thursday, initial weekly jobless claims rose to 218,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous period though slightly below the 220,000 estimate. However, continuing claims, which run a week behind, surged to 1.93 million, an increase of 86,000 and the highest level since Nov. 27, 2021, the Labor Department said.
“The Fed is on hold for now but their pivot to rate cuts is getting closer,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Inflation is clearly slowing, and the job market is softening faster than expected.”
Markets already had been pricing in the likelihood that the Fed is done raising interest rates this cycle, and the PCE reading, along with signs of a loosening labor market, could solidify that stance. Along with the anticipation that the rate hikes are over, markets also are pricing in the equivalent of five quarter percentage point rate cuts in 2024.
New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday that he expects inflation to continue to drift lower, finally hitting the Fed’s 2% target in 2025. However, he said policymakers will need to stay vigilant and keep rates at a “restrictive” level.
“My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate,” he said in prepared remarks for a speech in New York. “I expect it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some me to fully restore balance and to bring inflation back to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis.”
The fed funds rate, the central bank’s benchmark level for short-term lending, is targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, its highest in more than 22 years. After implementing 11 hikes since March 2022, the Fed skipped its last two meetings, and most policymakers of late have been indicating that they are content now to watch the impact of the previous increases work their way through the economy.
Other economic signals lately have shown the economy to be in fairly good shape, though several Fed officials recently have said the data doesn’t square with comments they are hearing on the ground.
“I’m hearing consumers slowing down,” Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Wednesday at the CNBC CFO Council Summit. “I’m not hearing [the] consumer falling off the table. I’m hearing normalizing, not recession, but I am hearing consumer slowing down.”
The Fed’s inflation report comes the same day as encouraging news from the euro zone.
Headline inflation there fell to 2.4% on a 12-month basis, though core, which excludes food, energy and tobacco, was still at 3.6%. Like the Fed, the European Central Bank targets 2% as a healthy inflation level.
Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:
We're already helping folks who purchased earlier this year to streamline down to a lower rate...giggity
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2023.html
Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.
With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.
Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could end a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing. Following the release of the decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points, surpassing 37,000 for the first time.
The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years.
In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously.
Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off its balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening.
Inflation ‘eased over the past year’
The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022.
“Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news,” Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference.
That echoed new language in the post-meeting statement. The committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.” Fed officials see core inflation falling to 3.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. Finally, it gets back to the 2% target in 2026.
Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America’s calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal.
The statement also noted that the economy “has slowed,” after saying in November that activity had “expanded at a strong pace.”
In the news conference, Powell said: “Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed substantially from the outsized pace seen in the third quarter. Even so, GDP is on track to expand around 2.5% for the year as a whole.”
Committee members upgraded gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. Projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years.
Officials have stressed their willingness to hike rates again if inflation flares up. However, most have said they can be patient now as they watch the impact the previous policy tightening moves are having on the U.S. economy.
Stubbornly high prices have exacted a political toll on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has suffered in large part because of negative sentiment on how he has handled the economy. There had been some speculation that the Fed could be reluctant to make any dramatic policy actions during a presidential election year, which looms large in 2024.
However, with real rates, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, running high, the Fed would be more likely to act if the inflation data continues to cooperate.
On the bright side, I haven't been able to hire good people for four years, and now there are a ton in the market. The pool of candidates has really improved in quality in the last year.
Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024
Data gives reason for optimism for economy and transportation market next year
Chart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier, but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21 according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth in consumption.
While he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet against the American consumer.”
Possibly the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are contractionary.
The transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024, indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this level of market downturn.
While Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the “soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately, the solution to the freight market means that several first have to lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
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Zach Strickland, FW Market Expert & Market Analyst
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
That being said, we are making what, 5 chip making plants here in the US?
If we could start up manufacturing again on a bigger scale this country would be a big boom for all over.
U say warehouse space. I see storage units and Amazon hubs all over. My dream to open a storage facility is all but gone now. I missed that boat...
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14