Nate Silver 538

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2. 

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you.  But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer. 

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong.  When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation.  Today, too many people have too much to lose.  I don't see that as a risk.  The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population.  And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost. 

the gop is using covid to try to crash the economy. it has maintained itself under biden to this point, but you keep prolonging a pandemic and the economy is going to suffer. that is the gop plan. keep the pandemic going to slow down business through the 2022 election. then blame biden to make the dems lose in 2024.

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2. 

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you.  But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer. 

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong.  When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation.  Today, too many people have too much to lose.  I don't see that as a risk.  The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population.  And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost. 

the gop is using covid to try to crash the economy. it has maintained itself under biden to this point, but you keep prolonging a pandemic and the economy is going to suffer. that is the gop plan. keep the pandemic going to slow down business through the 2022 election. then blame biden to make the dems lose in 2024.

I think the fed does too good of a job manipulating the money supply through quantitative easing and other monetary policy that it can effectively cushion falls and juice starts with cheap, plentiful money.  Maybe you all see me as too much of an optimist, but we have too many tools to manage the economy.  Many of the pitfalls in 2008 have been closed.  They are not all gone and certainly there will be bear markets, but not compared to the runaway inflation and unemployment ala Germany in the 20's or the brutal and archaic peasant economy of Russia in the early 20th century. I just don't see it. 

this is all true, but you are forgetting one thing. hatred goes a long way.

these people hate liberals more than they love their own family and their country. 

you keep telling someone how bad things are, ie fox news to their viewers every night, sooner or later more and more and more will believe that message, and the more who believe, the more will act on it. see jan 6.

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2. 

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you.  But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer. 

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong.  When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation.  Today, too many people have too much to lose.  I don't see that as a risk.  The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population.  And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost. 

the gop is using covid to try to crash the economy. it has maintained itself under biden to this point, but you keep prolonging a pandemic and the economy is going to suffer. that is the gop plan. keep the pandemic going to slow down business through the 2022 election. then blame biden to make the dems lose in 2024.

I think the fed does too good of a job manipulating the money supply through quantitative easing and other monetary policy that it can effectively cushion falls and juice starts with cheap, plentiful money.  Maybe you all see me as too much of an optimist, but we have too many tools to manage the economy.  Many of the pitfalls in 2008 have been closed.  They are not all gone and certainly there will be bear markets, but not compared to the runaway inflation and unemployment ala Germany in the 20's or the brutal and archaic peasant economy of Russia in the early 20th century. I just don't see it. 

this is all true, but you are forgetting one thing. hatred goes a long way.

these people hate liberals more than they love their own family and their country. 

you keep telling someone how bad things are, ie fox news to their viewers every night, sooner or later more and more and more will believe that message, and the more who believe, the more will act on it. see jan 6.

Not all the ones with real jobs and families.  That's my point.  There are way,  way more of us than them. 

I underestimated the amount of republicans who have been hoodwinked by Trumpism. I used to share your optimism but I seriously did not think we would be 9 months after an insurrection which was built up by Trump lying about losing an election and have so many of these people still put the guy up on a pedestal. It's not just that 30% deplorable base anymore. It is vast majority of republicans now, even the ones who used to be considered reasonable. I thought they'd recognize that he lost them the house, congress, and white house and realize how toxic he was....but nope. They literally all believe he won the election and that it was stolen from him. A large portion of those people also don't believe in vaccines and masks. There is literally nothing you can say to these people to change their minds. They are too far gone.

I don't even think the economy matters as much because they have shown that they will believe one plus one equals three if the right people tell them so over and over and over again. Look at all the numbskulls who pop in here every now and then who were convinced things started getting better in January of 2017 and then in January of 2021 things all of sudden turned to shit again. I think there area whole more of these people than we originally thought. 

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2. 

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you.  But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer. 

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong.  When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation.  Today, too many people have too much to lose.  I don't see that as a risk.  The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population.  And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost. 

the gop is using covid to try to crash the economy. it has maintained itself under biden to this point, but you keep prolonging a pandemic and the economy is going to suffer. that is the gop plan. keep the pandemic going to slow down business through the 2022 election. then blame biden to make the dems lose in 2024.

I think the fed does too good of a job manipulating the money supply through quantitative easing and other monetary policy that it can effectively cushion falls and juice starts with cheap, plentiful money.  Maybe you all see me as too much of an optimist, but we have too many tools to manage the economy.  Many of the pitfalls in 2008 have been closed.  They are not all gone and certainly there will be bear markets, but not compared to the runaway inflation and unemployment ala Germany in the 20's or the brutal and archaic peasant economy of Russia in the early 20th century. I just don't see it. 

this is all true, but you are forgetting one thing. hatred goes a long way.

these people hate liberals more than they love their own family and their country. 

you keep telling someone how bad things are, ie fox news to their viewers every night, sooner or later more and more and more will believe that message, and the more who believe, the more will act on it. see jan 6.

Not all the ones with real jobs and families.  That's my point.  There are way,  way more of us than them. 

I underestimated the amount of republicans who have been hoodwinked by Trumpism. I used to share your optimism but I seriously did not think we would be 9 months after an insurrection which was built up by Trump lying about losing an election and have so many of these people still put the guy up on a pedestal. It's not just that 30% deplorable base anymore. It is vast majority of republicans now, even the ones who used to be considered reasonable. I thought they'd recognize that he lost them the house, congress, and white house and realize how toxic he was....but nope. They literally all believe he won the election and that it was stolen from him. A large portion of those people also don't believe in vaccines and masks. There is literally nothing you can say to these people to change their minds. They are too far gone.

I don't even think the economy matters as much because they have shown that they will believe one plus one equals three if the right people tell them so over and over and over again. Look at all the numbskulls who pop in here every now and then who were convinced things started getting better in January of 2017 and then in January of 2021 things all of sudden turned to shit again. I think there area whole more of these people than we originally thought. 

All this may be true,  but do you think they will really throw it all away? What they believe or say and what they're willing to do are very different.  There's been no unrest since that day. 

JB16057 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2. 

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you.  But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer. 

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong.  When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation.  Today, too many people have too much to lose.  I don't see that as a risk.  The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population.  And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost. 

the gop is using covid to try to crash the economy. it has maintained itself under biden to this point, but you keep prolonging a pandemic and the economy is going to suffer. that is the gop plan. keep the pandemic going to slow down business through the 2022 election. then blame biden to make the dems lose in 2024.

I think the fed does too good of a job manipulating the money supply through quantitative easing and other monetary policy that it can effectively cushion falls and juice starts with cheap, plentiful money.  Maybe you all see me as too much of an optimist, but we have too many tools to manage the economy.  Many of the pitfalls in 2008 have been closed.  They are not all gone and certainly there will be bear markets, but not compared to the runaway inflation and unemployment ala Germany in the 20's or the brutal and archaic peasant economy of Russia in the early 20th century. I just don't see it. 

this is all true, but you are forgetting one thing. hatred goes a long way.

these people hate liberals more than they love their own family and their country. 

you keep telling someone how bad things are, ie fox news to their viewers every night, sooner or later more and more and more will believe that message, and the more who believe, the more will act on it. see jan 6.

Hatred goes both ways though. Take this site for example. There is so much hatred towards the GOP, Conservatives and Republicans and most of it is the same hysterics as what you see on FOX just in reverse. Sure this site doesn't get near the amount of attention but CNN, MSNBC and plenty of other major news outlets spew hatred all day long.

Something needs to change with the economy. Inflation is out of control right now and I don't see either side of the aisle doing anything about it.

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2. 

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you.  But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer. 

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong.  When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation.  Today, too many people have too much to lose.  I don't see that as a risk.  The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population.  And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost. 

the gop is using covid to try to crash the economy. it has maintained itself under biden to this point, but you keep prolonging a pandemic and the economy is going to suffer. that is the gop plan. keep the pandemic going to slow down business through the 2022 election. then blame biden to make the dems lose in 2024.

I think the fed does too good of a job manipulating the money supply through quantitative easing and other monetary policy that it can effectively cushion falls and juice starts with cheap, plentiful money.  Maybe you all see me as too much of an optimist, but we have too many tools to manage the economy.  Many of the pitfalls in 2008 have been closed.  They are not all gone and certainly there will be bear markets, but not compared to the runaway inflation and unemployment ala Germany in the 20's or the brutal and archaic peasant economy of Russia in the early 20th century. I just don't see it. 

this is all true, but you are forgetting one thing. hatred goes a long way.

these people hate liberals more than they love their own family and their country. 

you keep telling someone how bad things are, ie fox news to their viewers every night, sooner or later more and more and more will believe that message, and the more who believe, the more will act on it. see jan 6.

Not all the ones with real jobs and families.  That's my point.  There are way,  way more of us than them. 

I underestimated the amount of republicans who have been hoodwinked by Trumpism. I used to share your optimism but I seriously did not think we would be 9 months after an insurrection which was built up by Trump lying about losing an election and have so many of these people still put the guy up on a pedestal. It's not just that 30% deplorable base anymore. It is vast majority of republicans now, even the ones who used to be considered reasonable. I thought they'd recognize that he lost them the house, congress, and white house and realize how toxic he was....but nope. They literally all believe he won the election and that it was stolen from him. A large portion of those people also don't believe in vaccines and masks. There is literally nothing you can say to these people to change their minds. They are too far gone.

I don't even think the economy matters as much because they have shown that they will believe one plus one equals three if the right people tell them so over and over and over again. Look at all the numbskulls who pop in here every now and then who were convinced things started getting better in January of 2017 and then in January of 2021 things all of sudden turned to shit again. I think there area whole more of these people than we originally thought. 

All this may be true,  but do you think they will really throw it all away? What they believe or say and what they're willing to do are very different.  There's been no unrest since that day. 

I'm not sure what you mean exactly by "throw it all away." I'm more talking about how they're too far gone to think critically and vote for candidates who are not right wing Trumpian extremists. And I'm not saying these people will all turn violent and shit but I am saying they've already proven they will look the other way and pretend the real ugliness either doesn't exist or that it was really antifa and not Trump supporters. 

The videos I see on a daily basis of school board meetings and these people yesterday at the Biden/Newsome rally. Things seem to be getting worse pretty quickly and I would not be surprised if more unrest happens sooner than later. There is this dumb thing scheduled for Saturday too...

I'm talking specifically about revolution, true blood in the street revolution with an overthrow.  A small minority of people causing a ruckus is very different than popular revolution.  That's where this conversation stemmed.