Nate Silver 538

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Comments

  • Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    mrussel1 said:
    show previous quotes
    Charlie Cook is no hack.  God, please let him be right.  I'll never ask for anything again... maybe. 
    Yeah...I'm still in a bit of shock.  He had no hesitation to offering that opinion.  I think Chuck Todd was surprised too.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    edited November 2020


    Fuck you Nate!
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    he said this will be more like 1980 than 2016. he is confident biden wins and it's called early, and senate has a 75% chance of going blue. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • Posts: 10,401
    I'll be glued to election results all night waiting for the Trump sniveling and whining. The next 2 months will be crazy. 
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    Isn't it insane that many of us are just as or more concerned about the 2+ months between election night and inauguration day than we are the actual election? what does that tell you about the state of politics right now?
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • Posts: 5,074
    If the senate goes blue can we impeach Kavanaugh and Amy Christina Barcelona?
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Posts: 49,594
    Gern Blansten said:
    Charles Cook was just on MTPD and said that he thinks the race will go to Biden as soon as TX and FL report tomorrow night.  He said PA won't matter....dude was confident as hell
    He was basing that off of my post above.

    LET'S FUCKIN' GO!
    www.myspace.com
  • Posts: 49,594
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    Isn't it insane that many of us are just as or more concerned about the 2+ months between election night and inauguration day than we are the actual election? what does that tell you about the state of politics right now?
    I am WAAAAY more concerned about the election than what happens after it. One existential threat to our democracy at a time is enough for me. lol
    www.myspace.com
  • Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    Isn't it insane that many of us are just as or more concerned about the 2+ months between election night and inauguration day than we are the actual election? what does that tell you about the state of politics right now?
    It's going to be weird...lots of odd pardons, probably a lot of golf trips at tRump resorts so that he can bilk as much money as possible before he leaves.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Posts: 30,879
    static111 said:
    If the senate goes blue can we impeach Kavanaugh and Amy Christina Barcelona?
    you could, but you still need 2/3 and an actual impeachable offense.  
  • Posts: 12,911
    Just fucking win Florida and Michigan tomorrow and get this over with. If it does come down to Pennysylvania this is going to be hanging chad shit all over again but on a much larger and ugly scale.


  • Posts: 5,074
    edited November 2020
    mrussel1 said:
    show previous quotes
    you could, but you still need 2/3 and an actual impeachable offense.  
    OK so potentially if we go big in the senate we could get Kavanaugh. Gotta be some serious skeletons that could be found by an actual investigation. Amy Christina Barcelona for all her faults seems to be squeaky clean from a legal standpoint though.
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    static111 said:
    show previous quotes
    OK so potentially if we go big in the senate we could get Kavanaugh. Gotta be some serious skeletons that could be found by an actual investigation. Amy Christina Barcelona for all her faults seems to be squeaky clean from a legal standpoint though.
    It would theoretically be easier to add liberal justices than impeach current ones. let those two sit on the bench and have to revel in their losing dissenting opinions for the next 8 years. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • Posts: 30,879
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    show previous quotes
    It would theoretically be easier to add liberal justices than impeach current ones. let those two sit on the bench and have to revel in their losing dissenting opinions for the next 8 years. 
    Yeah I agree, and I think the expansion of the court plays off as less vindictive than impeachment.  
  • Posts: 7,855
    Charlie Cook, huh?
  • Posts: 49,594
    pjhawks said:
    Just fucking win Florida and Michigan tomorrow and get this over with. If it does come down to Pennysylvania this is going to be hanging chad shit all over again but on a much larger and ugly scale.


    Won't know Michigan results till around same time as PA....
    www.myspace.com
  • Posts: 49,594
    538 gives you their estimates on when each state's outcomes will be determined:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
    www.myspace.com
  • Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    The Juggler said:
    538 gives you their estimates on when each state's outcomes will be determined:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
    well that sucks. so for it to be over on election night he has to take florida. even then trump won't concede. if he ever does. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • Posts: 49,594
    edited November 2020
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    show previous quotes
    well that sucks. so for it to be over on election night he has to take florida. even then trump won't concede. if he ever does. 
    No there are other scenarios without Florida. Getting Florida would certainly make things a lot easier though. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    The Juggler said:
    show previous quotes
    No there are other scenarios without Florida. Getting Florida would certainly make things a lot easier though. 
    all the swing states in play, he says will have many or most of their votes counted on election night, or worse, by wednesday or thursday. what am i missing? just so we're clear, i'm not saying he needs florida to win, i'm saying it looks like nate is saying he needs florida for the election to be called tomorrow night. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




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