Nate Silver 538

1…3233353738…75

Comments

  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,357
    Gern Blansten said:
    darwinstheory said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    darwinstheory said:
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.
    I feel like if things go our way with turnout it's a done deal....Biden is going to win big

    But then I worry about the bullshit that tRump is doing behind the scenes and potential Russian bullshit
    I think we HAVE to worry about that stuff. It ain't over until Joe is inaugurated and Deputy Dipshit is back at one of his other homes.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    darwinstheory said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    darwinstheory said:
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.

    If Biden wins with a cushion of a few states, it would be great. If he wins but one close state is difference-making, Barr and the high court overturn that shit.  I really think he needs a suprise like Ohio or Texas.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
    Did she beat McSally, though?  The Arizona GOP has to stop trotting her out there.  She must have given some serious money to someone. Or she has compromising photos.  She's going to lose her gifted seat. I hope that translates to the big election...we'll see.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    OnWis97 said:
    darwinstheory said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    darwinstheory said:
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.

    If Biden wins with a cushion of a few states, it would be great. If he wins but one close state is difference-making, Barr and the high court overturn that shit.  I really think he needs a suprise like Ohio or Texas.
    No. If he wins by one state and its by less than 1%....maybe there would be an issue. But if he wins that 1 state by 4 or 5%? It's curtains. 
    www.myspace.com
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    edited October 2020
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
    Did she beat McSally, though?  The Arizona GOP has to stop trotting her out there.  She must have given some serious money to someone. Or she has compromising photos.  She's going to lose her gifted seat. I hope that translates to the big election...we'll see.
    Yes it was McSally. Now she's up against an astronaut. That's no easier. 
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
    Did she beat McSally, though?  The Arizona GOP has to stop trotting her out there.  She must have given some serious money to someone. Or she has compromising photos.  She's going to lose her gifted seat. I hope that translates to the big election...we'll see.
    Yes it was McSally. Now she's up against an astronaut. That's no easier. 
    It looks like McSally's going to get crushed. Hopefully that reflects on how they vote in other races.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
    Did she beat McSally, though?  The Arizona GOP has to stop trotting her out there.  She must have given some serious money to someone. Or she has compromising photos.  She's going to lose her gifted seat. I hope that translates to the big election...we'll see.
    Yes it was McSally. Now she's up against an astronaut. That's no easier. 
    It looks like McSally's going to get crushed. Hopefully that reflects on how they vote in other races.
    Don't forget about the shy McSally voter.  That's good for 10 points. 
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
    Did she beat McSally, though?  The Arizona GOP has to stop trotting her out there.  She must have given some serious money to someone. Or she has compromising photos.  She's going to lose her gifted seat. I hope that translates to the big election...we'll see.
    Yes it was McSally. Now she's up against an astronaut. That's no easier. 
    It looks like McSally's going to get crushed. Hopefully that reflects on how they vote in other races.
    Don't forget about the shy McSally voter.  That's good for 10 points. 
    lol
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,852
    OnWis97 said:
    darwinstheory said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    darwinstheory said:
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.

    If Biden wins with a cushion of a few states, it would be great. If he wins but one close state is difference-making, Barr and the high court overturn that shit.  I really think he needs a suprise like Ohio or Texas.
    But Biden has Nancy and electoral votes are counted in her House and she sets the rules if no one gets to 270. Plenty of swing state democrat governors certifying results can’t hurt either.
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    It will be interesting to see how all this Hunter Biden talk impacts the polls over the next few days. I don’t know whether it’s legit but people buy it.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,852
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 


    AZ and GA have a better chance than FL. 200,000 more brand new republicans in FL is concerning, as is every statewide vote result since 2012. If I were Biden, I’d have a backup plan to FL and also NC, but that plan must include PA. Gulp.
  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,072
    edited October 2020
    OnWis97 said:
    It will be interesting to see how all this Hunter Biden talk impacts the polls over the next few days. I don’t know whether it’s legit but people buy it.
    I’m currently working for a defense contractor and they deal with some natsec stuff from time to time...EVERYONE is a trump supporter and buys everything about hunter and the laptops and how Giuliani is the greatest lawyer of all time and that Biden is the head of a crime family...it’s very disheartening. These people say the word Democrat as if it hurts their mouths and brings them pain such as if to be a Democrat is not just to have differences ideologically, but to be the enemy.


     I have a good line on getting some inspection work at a semi conductor plant...I need out of this business and the yayhoos that abound
    Post edited by static111 on
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    Haha, check out the latest 538 pod. Nate's kinda losing his shit. It's funny.
  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Haha, check out the latest 538 pod. Nate's kinda losing his shit. It's funny.
    Can you give a quick synopsis? Thanks.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    dignin said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Haha, check out the latest 538 pod. Nate's kinda losing his shit. It's funny.
    Can you give a quick synopsis? Thanks.
    It's in the first 10 minutes-ish, just rehashing 2016 in comparison to 2020 and how these models/forecasts work. Sounds like the Twitter trolls are sometimes living rent free in his head.

    https://youtu.be/GSdel0aeoZ4
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,852
    Trump down  to 12%

Categories