Nate Silver 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

How do we get from polls to forecasted vote share?

To calculate what percentage of the vote each candidate is forecasted to get in Pennsylvania, our model starts with the weighted polling average and then factors in economic conditions, demographics, uncertainty and how states with similar characteristics are forecasted to vote. The steps below show a simplified version of how that data shapes the forecast.

The Juggler said:

lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 

I agree wholeheartedly with this. Almost everyone in my region and work (Indiana) will openly talk about trump as though they expect nobody to feel differently. There is an ornate inability for them to see anything objectively. Finding someone to discuss the pitfalls of trump or the positives of voting blue is a delicate process. One has to put a couple of small "feelers" out there and determine if the person is voting for Biden. Those who are going to vote for trump generally make it well known.

I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 

I agree wholeheartedly with this. Almost everyone in my region and work (Indiana) will openly talk about trump as though they expect nobody to feel differently. There is an ornate inability for them to see anything objectively. Finding someone to discuss the pitfalls of trump or the positives of voting blue is a delicate process. One has to put a couple of small "feelers" out there and determine if the person is voting for Biden. Those who are going to vote for trump generally make it well known.

I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.

Yeah
Everyone always brings this up as a reason why Trump will come from behind to win when there is basically no evidence of an abundance of these voters. Not in 2016, not in 2018, and not in 2020. Why in the world would someone lie to a pollster over the phone when they're anonymous anyway? Lol. Makes no sense. 

Obviously these are all anecdotal instances but my parents live near Biden's summer home in Delaware. You'd think that would be Biden country but its not so much, at least in their development, which is kind of Del Boca Vista-y. Trump supporters down there are everywhere, they're vocal, they're brash, they're flying their dumb flags, and in that specific community they are intimidating to people who do not conform with their views. My parents moved to that development 6 years ago and still like it, but they are always talking about how they feel so uncomfortable simply just walking around down there. Someone even stole their Biden yard sign the other day. 

Again---anecdotal, obviously, but there is no evidence of an abundance of these so called "shy" Trump voters in polls or in the results of the last couple elections. 

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

not all of them. i'm sure there are ones that vote for trump simply because he has the R beside his name, and nothing else. they are probably just as embarrassed by him as anyone. 

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

My grandmother died two weeks ago at age 90, so she won't be voting. But since ya brought her up, and you like presidential politics, her favorite president was Roosevelt because "he was nice and made sure everybody had food" during WW2. 

Gern Blansten said:

I'm pretty sure my MIL isn't voting tRump again.  She is pretty pissed off about tRump downplaying COVID and mask wearing.

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

My grandmother died two weeks ago at age 90, so she won't be voting. But since ya brought her up, and you like presidential politics, her favorite president was Roosevelt because "he was nice and made sure everybody had food" during WW2. 

Oh man, I'm sorry. I thought you mentioned her recently. Or maybe it was an aunt who was a shy Trump voter?

It was my aunt. So if you're going to file away someone's previous post to suggest to someone else what their next post is going be, you should get it right. 

Ledbetterman10 said:

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 

I agree wholeheartedly with this. Almost everyone in my region and work (Indiana) will openly talk about trump as though they expect nobody to feel differently. There is an ornate inability for them to see anything objectively. Finding someone to discuss the pitfalls of trump or the positives of voting blue is a delicate process. One has to put a couple of small "feelers" out there and determine if the person is voting for Biden. Those who are going to vote for trump generally make it well known.

I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.

I can see that in a "dark red" region for sure. But remember, there's not much enthusiasm for Joe. Enthusiastic voters put signs in their yards. Call it "shyness" if ya want. But I also think there's a lot of "Well whatever, I guess I have to vote for Biden because Trump is awful" voters. Hell, I'm one of them, and was in 2016 for Hillary. We don't put signs in our yards for Joe. We look at the democratic party and say "You're lucky you're going against the worst incumbent president ever, or you wouldn't be getting my vote."