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I'm interested in seeing some new OH polls. That state has tightened up according to 538Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
Trump needs Florida more than Biden.www.myspace.com0 -
Latest FL poll moved Biden from 60% to 58%...still higher than where he was two weeks ago.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/
Anyone know if Bloomberg's money blitz has even started there yet though? I have a feeling that will help. His ads were great in the primaries.Post edited by The Juggler onwww.myspace.com0 -
The Juggler said:Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
Trump needs Florida more than Biden.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
The felon issue won't be in the numbers. Be interesting to see if that makes a difference. I love that Bloomberg out maneuvered the Republican legislature on this one.0
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mrussel1 said:The felon issue won't be in the numbers. Be interesting to see if that makes a difference. I love that Bloomberg out maneuvered the Republican legislature on this one.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
www.myspace.com0 -
The Juggler said:Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/The Juggler said:
Regarding PA, it's looking pretty similar to 2016: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh going for the Dem, and all the rural places going for Trump. I'd be curious to see what the polling in Lackawanna County (my home county) looks like. Hillary won there in 2016, but just barely (50%-46% versus 65%-35% for Obama/Romney). Biden is from Scranton, but will that matter? Biden has been in Washington forever, but Scranton has gotten progressively worse. Even the once-great Steamtown Mall is closed now. Now, it's not like Trump has made anything better. But despte that, my hometown (about 10 miles from Scranton) is a total a Trump town now after being democratic for my entire youth. I wonder how Scranton and Wilkes-Barre are looking.
2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0 -
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
How do we get from polls to forecasted vote share?
To calculate what percentage of the vote each candidate is forecasted to get in Pennsylvania, our model starts with the weighted polling average and then factors in economic conditions, demographics, uncertainty and how states with similar characteristics are forecasted to vote. The steps below show a simplified version of how that data shapes the forecast.
TRUMP BIDEN 1. Polling average 45.2% 49.7% Adjust for polling bounces from recent events -0.8 +0.1 2. Adjusted polling average 44.4% 49.8% Allocate undecided voters +2.6 +2.6 3. Polls-based vote share 46.9% 52.4% Average with demographics-based vote share projection 45.9% 53.4% 4. Today’s vote share (if the election were held today) For Pennsylvania, this average is 79% polls, 21% demographics
46.7% 52.6% Average with economics- and incumbency-based projection 51.5% 47.8% 5. Projected vote share for Nov. 3 For Pennsylvania, this average is 86% today’s vote share, 14% economics and incumbency
47.4% 51.9% www.myspace.com0 -
Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0 -
lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter.
I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters.www.myspace.com0 -
Ledbetterman10 said:Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.0
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The Juggler said:lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter.
I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters.
There's Trump rally attendees and MAGA-hate wearers, but you think there's 60 million people like that?
And why would someone be shy about voting for Biden? Isn't he what's "right" and Trump is what's "wrong"? Shouldn't they be proud to vote for Biden to save us all from Trump?
2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0 -
The Juggler said:lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter.
I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters.
I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3."A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory0 -
darwinstheory said:The Juggler said:lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter.
I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters.
I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.
2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0 -
darwinstheory said:The Juggler said:lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter.
I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters.
I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.
Everyone always brings this up as a reason why Trump will come from behind to win when there is basically no evidence of an abundance of these voters. Not in 2016, not in 2018, and not in 2020. Why in the world would someone lie to a pollster over the phone when they're anonymous anyway? Lol. Makes no sense.
Obviously these are all anecdotal instances but my parents live near Biden's summer home in Delaware. You'd think that would be Biden country but its not so much, at least in their development, which is kind of Del Boca Vista-y. Trump supporters down there are everywhere, they're vocal, they're brash, they're flying their dumb flags, and in that specific community they are intimidating to people who do not conform with their views. My parents moved to that development 6 years ago and still like it, but they are always talking about how they feel so uncomfortable simply just walking around down there. Someone even stole their Biden yard sign the other day.
Again---anecdotal, obviously, but there is no evidence of an abundance of these so called "shy" Trump voters in polls or in the results of the last couple elections.Post edited by The Juggler onwww.myspace.com0 -
Ledbetterman10 said:Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Gern Blansten said:Ledbetterman10 said:Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.Post edited by The Juggler onwww.myspace.com0
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The Juggler said:darwinstheory said:The Juggler said:lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter.
I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters.
I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.
Everyone always brings this up as a reason why Trump will come from behind to win when there is basically no evidence of an abundance of these voters. Not in 2016, not in 2018, and not in 2020. Why in the world would someone lie to a pollster over the phone when they're anonymous anyway? Lol. Makes no sense.
Obviously these are all anecdotal instances but my parents live near Biden's summer home in Delaware. You'd think that would be Biden country but its not so much, at least in their development, which is kind of Del Boca Vista-y. Trump supporters down there are everywhere, they're vocal, they're brash, they're flying their dumb flags, and in that specific community they are intimidating to people who do not conform with their views. My parents moved to that development 6 years ago and still like it, but they are always talking about how they feel so uncomfortable simply just walking around down there. Someone even stole their Biden yard sign the other day.
Again---anecdotal, obviously, but there is no evidence of an abundance of these so called "shy" Trump voters in polls or in the results of the last couple elections.Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall0 -
Gern Blansten said:Ledbetterman10 said:Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall0
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HughFreakingDillon said:Gern Blansten said:Ledbetterman10 said:Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.www.myspace.com0
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The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:Ledbetterman10 said:Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.
2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0 -
Ledbetterman10 said:The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:Ledbetterman10 said:Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.www.myspace.com0
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I'm pretty sure my MIL isn't voting tRump again. She is pretty pissed off about tRump downplaying COVID and mask wearing.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Gern Blansten said:I'm pretty sure my MIL isn't voting tRump again. She is pretty pissed off about tRump downplaying COVID and mask wearing.www.myspace.com0
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The Juggler said:Ledbetterman10 said:The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:Ledbetterman10 said:Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.
2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0 -
Ledbetterman10 said:The Juggler said:Ledbetterman10 said:The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:Ledbetterman10 said:Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.0
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Ledbetterman10 said:The Juggler said:Ledbetterman10 said:The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:Ledbetterman10 said:Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.Post edited by The Juggler onwww.myspace.com0
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Ledbetterman10 said:darwinstheory said:The Juggler said:lol
Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter.
I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters.
I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.0 -
The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:I'm pretty sure my MIL isn't voting tRump again. She is pretty pissed off about tRump downplaying COVID and mask wearing.
He either won't vote or probably won't vote for tRump again.
My sister in law and her husband are rabid tRumpster's though. There is no getting them away from that cult.
It's funny because 8 years ago when Obama had just beaten Romney, I had a bet with her about how the economy wouldn't tank by the next Thanksgiving (2013)....she was convinced that the country would collapse under a 2nd Obama term.
Of course that didn't happen and now the debt is skyrocketing....she doesn't care about that either for now.Post edited by Gern Blansten onRemember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20
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