Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!

The Juggler said:

https://medium.com/@madrid_mike/the-lincoln-project-effect-c901a27f6350

The Lincoln Project Effect

Trump Republicans are in deep trouble in Arizona. The President continues to be a drag on the national brand and an anchor on the GOP’s prospects of holding the White House, Senate and recapturing the House. Moreover, Republicans tying themselves to Trump are sinking faster than the President. A recently released poll in Arizona shows what’s happening and why it changes the electoral college roadmap.

It’s important to know that two days prior to the poll being conducted, The Lincoln Project, a Republican organization created to defeat Trump, began airing ads targeting McSally. The ads were sharp, hard-hitting and effective.

McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights. While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSally’s 42%, in May it’s now 51%-38%.

Her rapid four point drop in support in support in Maricopa County, Arizona’s most Republican and most populous county, shows just how precarious the situation is. The recent influx of suburban Republican voters to this area are more often high skilled technical workers with college degrees than those without.

This demographic is target rich for The Lincoln Project and recent national and state battleground polls show why our strategy is moving numbers.

The Lincoln Project Effect and why the ads are working

College educated voters are the most elusive part of Trumps Republican base. There is a direct correlation between how much education a Republican voter has and their dislike of the President. In 2016, this education ‘gap’ turned into an education ‘chasm’ as college educated voters — specifically women — fled the party. The trend continued in the 2018 midterms as Democrats captured the House of Representatives and at this point in the election cycle the break between college and non-college educated Republicans is growing even wider. Only 36% of college graduates voted for Trump in 2016 — a number he’ll find harder to reach in 2020. These voters do not believe Trump is competent to be running the country and the handling of the pandemic is proving them right.

Older voters are Trump Fatigued

Lots of older voters in Arizona. Older voters have among the highest likelihood of voting and this group gave Trump some of his biggest margins of support in 2016. It has also remained (along with white evangelicals)one of his most resilient bases of support.

Enter COVID-19.

Trumps incompetence and inability to be trusted to handle a situation that is not only serious but life threatening to seniors — not to mention devastating to retirement programs seniors are reliant upon — and you have the perfect alignment of factors to erode senior support.

As the New York Times recently pointed out. “A recent Morning Consult poll found that Mr. Trump’s approval rating on the handling of the coronavirus was lower with seniors than with any other group other than young voters. And Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the presumptive Democratic nominee, in recent polls held a 10-point advantage over Mr. Trump among voters who are 65 and older.”

In 2016 Trump won this group by 7 points — that’s an astonishing 17 point drop in support.

In January, The Lincoln Project launched its first salvo against Senator Martha McSally in a blistering. one-minute ad. Drawing a clear distinction between iconic Arizona Republicans John McCain and Barry Goldwater, the ad was designed in large part to contrast traditional Republicanism versus Trumpism.

The objective, in part, was to see just how ‘soft’ Trumps Republican base was.

We liked what we saw.

McSally was tanking and we knew we couldpush Republican vote share even lower.

The Lincoln Project began running its second ad targeting base Republican voters two days before the Predictive Insights poll was conducted. Again, the ad specifically contrasted McSally and Trumpism with traditional Republican leadership. Moreover, it asked Republicans already questioning their support for Trump ‘Why?’ Why would they continue to support McSally and Trump?

McSally is now losing 12% of Republican voters in Arizona. She’s getting clobbered with Independents. If this were to play out nationally, the results could be measured in the Richter scale.

McSally’s drop in support demonstrates how soft GOP support is in the time of Trump, but more importantly how powerful a Republican to Republican message is.

The President has been driving a false narrative showing his statistically impossible levels of Republican support. He does this because even a slight crack in his base of support spells doom for his re-election prospects. Even the slightest Republican dissent could derail a re-election effort focused on winning by the slimmest of margins.

The Lincoln Project ad illustrates to Republican voters that the high levels of ‘trust’ and ‘competence’ they’ve spent associating with their traditional Republican leaders doesn’t transfer to Trump. College educated and older Republicans have reached their limit and they are responding.

Trump fatigue is real and it’s getting worse for the President and Republican candidates.

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

Martha McSally lost to Kyrsten Sinema in 2018 and got appointed to Jon Kyl's vacated seat. Now she's losing to another Democrat. It's not hard to see the through line here.

Yeah I think Arizona is definitely shifting.  It doesn't hurt that Kelly is a dynamite candidate.  

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Let's check in on the race:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/
Biden holding steady 5.1% nationally. Still better than any challenger to an incumbent in recent history. 

Battleground states RCP avg:
AZ...Biden +4
Fl...Biden +3.3
MI....Biden +5.5
NV....Biden +4
NC.....Trump +1
OH.....not enough polling yet
PA....Biden up 6.5
TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!)
VA.....Biden up 9.7
WI....Bide up 2.7

So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead. 

I wouldn’t be shocked if Biden won Texas. I think there’s distain down there for him because of his disrespect to the Bush family. Hillary, despite being maybe the most loathed Democrat ever in the eyes of Republicans, garnered like 43% of the vote in Texas in ‘16. Biden definitely appeals to Trump-hating Republicans...and I think Texas might have more of them than any state. 

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

The Juggler said:

Let's check in on the race:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/
Biden holding steady 5.1% nationally. Still better than any challenger to an incumbent in recent history. 

Battleground states RCP avg:
AZ...Biden +4
Fl...Biden +3.3
MI....Biden +5.5
NV....Biden +4
NC.....Trump +1
OH.....not enough polling yet
PA....Biden up 6.5
TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!)
VA.....Biden up 9.7
WI....Bide up 2.7

So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead. 

Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/poll-shows-biden-beating-trump-like-a-drum-heres-whats-really-going-on?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

I don't quite follow the argument.  He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging.  And he's surging because D's are coming around to him.  Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change.  Now maybe he is surging.  And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS.  So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.  

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

The Juggler said:

Let's check in on the race:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/
Biden holding steady 5.1% nationally. Still better than any challenger to an incumbent in recent history. 

Battleground states RCP avg:
AZ...Biden +4
Fl...Biden +3.3
MI....Biden +5.5
NV....Biden +4
NC.....Trump +1
OH.....not enough polling yet
PA....Biden up 6.5
TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!)
VA.....Biden up 9.7
WI....Bide up 2.7

So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead. 

Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/poll-shows-biden-beating-trump-like-a-drum-heres-whats-really-going-on?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

I don't quite follow the argument.  He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging.  And he's surging because D's are coming around to him.  Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change.  Now maybe he is surging.  And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS.  So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.  

I think you missed some of his key points:

- Biden is surging at a time when you aren't hearing from him much
- Trump’s favorability has stayed mostly consistent
- Given that the surge is not necessarily coming from Trump’s favorability dropping, does Biden lose the bump when people start seeing and hearing him more again?

1. This is good, not bad for Biden.
2. And we know he has a base of support that isn't moving.  So it's not going to the 30's no matter what.  It will stay in that low 40's.  So I think this is a weak argument.
3. See number 2.  There are probably people who disapprove of Trump but might be 'undecided'.  I would be surprised if very much of that 'approved' are going to flip to Biden.  

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

The Juggler said:

Let's check in on the race:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/
Biden holding steady 5.1% nationally. Still better than any challenger to an incumbent in recent history. 

Battleground states RCP avg:
AZ...Biden +4
Fl...Biden +3.3
MI....Biden +5.5
NV....Biden +4
NC.....Trump +1
OH.....not enough polling yet
PA....Biden up 6.5
TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!)
VA.....Biden up 9.7
WI....Bide up 2.7

So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead. 

Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/poll-shows-biden-beating-trump-like-a-drum-heres-whats-really-going-on?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

I don't quite follow the argument.  He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging.  And he's surging because D's are coming around to him.  Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change.  Now maybe he is surging.  And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS.  So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.  

I think you missed some of his key points:

- Biden is surging at a time when you aren't hearing from him much
- Trump’s favorability has stayed mostly consistent
- Given that the surge is not necessarily coming from Trump’s favorability dropping, does Biden lose the bump when people start seeing and hearing him more again?

1. This is good, not bad for Biden.
2. And we know he has a base of support that isn't moving.  So it's not going to the 30's no matter what.  It will stay in that low 40's.  So I think this is a weak argument.
3. See number 2.  There are probably people who disapprove of Trump but might be 'undecided'.  I would be surprised if very much of that 'approved' are going to flip to Biden.  

You seem to feel that Biden being out there more - speeches, debating, etc. - will make people feel better about him. The author (and I, to a certain extent) disagrees with that.

I think people know who Biden is.  I think he did well in the Sanders (1 on 1) debate when not forced to talk over 10 people and those 10 people were all targeting him.  I'm not super concerned about that.

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

mrussel1 said:

pjl44 said:

The Juggler said:

Let's check in on the race:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/
Biden holding steady 5.1% nationally. Still better than any challenger to an incumbent in recent history. 

Battleground states RCP avg:
AZ...Biden +4
Fl...Biden +3.3
MI....Biden +5.5
NV....Biden +4
NC.....Trump +1
OH.....not enough polling yet
PA....Biden up 6.5
TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!)
VA.....Biden up 9.7
WI....Bide up 2.7

So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead. 

Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/poll-shows-biden-beating-trump-like-a-drum-heres-whats-really-going-on?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

I don't quite follow the argument.  He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging.  And he's surging because D's are coming around to him.  Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change.  Now maybe he is surging.  And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS.  So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.  

I think you missed some of his key points:

- Biden is surging at a time when you aren't hearing from him much
- Trump’s favorability has stayed mostly consistent
- Given that the surge is not necessarily coming from Trump’s favorability dropping, does Biden lose the bump when people start seeing and hearing him more again?

1. This is good, not bad for Biden.
2. And we know he has a base of support that isn't moving.  So it's not going to the 30's no matter what.  It will stay in that low 40's.  So I think this is a weak argument.
3. See number 2.  There are probably people who disapprove of Trump but might be 'undecided'.  I would be surprised if very much of that 'approved' are going to flip to Biden.  

You seem to feel that Biden being out there more - speeches, debating, etc. - will make people feel better about him. The author (and I, to a certain extent) disagrees with that.

I think people know who Biden is.  I think he did well in the Sanders (1 on 1) debate when not forced to talk over 10 people and those 10 people were all targeting him.  I'm not super concerned about that.

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

people know who trump is and a significant majority are rejecting him. 

any reasonable person does not want the shit stain on their conscience of having voted for him twice.

Remember one of his key pitches in 16 was "What have you got to lose?"  Now we know.. 100k lives and millions of jobs.