North American Tour Odds

brucejam28 · January 2020

I want to get tickets to MSG- is it better to put down reserved as my first and only priority or best available?

jefft · January 2020

lfitzpatrick9 said:

Here’s a question, every time I login to check the odds on the tickets today site does that void my ticket request that I got the email confirmation with. Or no it has no affect on my order so I can check it as many times as I please ?

I think your ok as you would have to go through the 5 steps and punch in credit card info again.

Bissy77 · January 2020

MSG is falling fast. 11% and 66% last I saw.

lfitzpatrick9 · January 2020

jefft said:

lfitzpatrick9 said:

Here’s a question, every time I login to check the odds on the tickets today site does that void my ticket request that I got the email confirmation with. Or no it has no affect on my order so I can check it as many times as I please ?

I think your ok as you would have to go through the 5 steps and punch in credit card info again.

Yeah I hope so. 12 hours can’t come soon enough so
we know the final odds. I’m assuming MSG will go
down to 50% which would be in my opinion great since in 2016 it was like 17% haha

gotthebottle · January 2020

tdawe said:

ecdanc said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

oo712 said:

So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?

I don't believe so, in the past the percentages were of all entries

I agree, which--in combination with the rankings--makes the odds less than informative.

Correct. They're useful/interesting information as far as it goes (mainly setting expectations) but they do not give you all the information you'd need to make perfectly rational choices.

YES! that's why I say don't sweat the odds, just ask for what you want and you'll be surprised. They don't tell the whole story, only that a lot of people are asking for certain shows, and not as much a few others.

ecdanc · January 2020

gotthebottle said:

tdawe said:

ecdanc said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

oo712 said:

So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?

I don't believe so, in the past the percentages were of all entries

I agree, which--in combination with the rankings--makes the odds less than informative.

Correct. They're useful/interesting information as far as it goes (mainly setting expectations) but they do not give you all the information you'd need to make perfectly rational choices.

YES! that's why I say don't sweat the odds, just ask for what you want and you'll be surprised. They don't tell the whole story, only that a lot of people are asking for certain shows, and not as much a few others.

Some of us don't like surprises!

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

A lot of confusing replies to this. I believe they are picking round by round. If you put NY GA as your first round pick (let's say those odds drop to 5%) there is a 95% chance you are not getting US tickets east of the mississippi.

"During the drawing, we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain, the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority"

If you really could see any show, picking NY first runs the risk of eliminating any chance at GA for every show.

Where did you find that quoted language?

It sorta looks like an older page but it says 2020 at top and "updated monday 13:05"

https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing?mobile_site=true

ecdanc · January 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

A lot of confusing replies to this. I believe they are picking round by round. If you put NY GA as your first round pick (let's say those odds drop to 5%) there is a 95% chance you are not getting US tickets east of the mississippi.

"During the drawing, we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain, the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority"

If you really could see any show, picking NY first runs the risk of eliminating any chance at GA for every show.

Where did you find that quoted language?

It sorta looks like an older page but it says 2020 at top and "updated monday 13:05"

https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing?mobile_site=true

Fascinating. Thank you. Even if it doesn't apply to this tour, it does explain why so many people stress about the rankings, etc. It never occurred to me they'd do it that way until I saw posts here. Definitely makes me reconsider my own rankings.

Poncier · January 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

A lot of confusing replies to this. I believe they are picking round by round. If you put NY GA as your first round pick (let's say those odds drop to 5%) there is a 95% chance you are not getting US tickets east of the mississippi.

"During the drawing, we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain, the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority"

If you really could see any show, picking NY first runs the risk of eliminating any chance at GA for every show.

Where did you find that quoted language?

It sorta looks like an older page but it says 2020 at top and "updated monday 13:05"

https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing?mobile_site=true

That's definitely old info from a 10C run lottery.
Ticketmaster is running this one.

IlliniGuy76 · January 2020

Bissy77 said:

MSG is falling fast. 11% and 66% last I saw.

Only a few % points from the last time it was updated - I'm beyond shocked it's not even lower for MSG, one show etc.

tdawe · January 2020

IlliniGuy76 said:

Bissy77 said:

MSG is falling fast. 11% and 66% last I saw.

Only a few % points from the last time it was updated - I'm beyond shocked it's not even lower for MSG, one show etc.

Yup - the only explanation that seems plausible is that they got a ton of seats. We shall see though.

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

From what I've read over the years what you put in priority 1 has always been the most important factor.

The way this leg shaped up its rough reading so many say "hey im from Antarctica maybe I'll throw in a chance for MSG "

If fans want a decent chance to see this band and dont live anywhere near MSG, that should be the last show they consider for this lottery. Especially GA. Especially this tour with so few shows in the east.

Lostpawn · January 2020

ecdanc said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

oo712 said:

So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?

I don't believe so, in the past the percentages were of all entries

I agree, which--in combination with the rankings--makes the odds less than informative.

Agree! Personally, I don’t see any other way of doing the odds without making the data meaningless. People who choose popular shows as low priority and thus having zero chance, would skew the numbers down. My guess is that the percentages actually ARE for people who choose that show as top priority. But I am not certain!

jefft · January 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

From what I've read over the years what you put in priority 1 has always been the most important factor.

The way this leg shaped up its rough reading so many say "hey im from Antarctica maybe I'll throw in a chance for MSG "

If fans want a decent chance to see this band and dont live anywhere near MSG, that should be the last show they consider for this lottery. Especially GA. Especially this tour with so few shows in the east.

Why would you put them last if you want to travel?

Vedd Hedd · January 2020

I know there are people who put MSG as like...their 6th choice as a "What the hell, i probably wont get it, but lets give it a shot"...for GA. That is messing with the odds.

JimmyV · January 2020

Baltimore or bust!

Lostpawn · January 2020

Vedd Hedd said:

I know there are people who put MSG as like...their 6th choice as a "What the hell, i probably wont get it, but lets give it a shot"...for GA. That is messing with the odds.

Which is why odds should be for 1st priority only. Otherwise they are largely meaningless.

Mozzy · January 2020

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

A lot of confusing replies to this. I believe they are picking round by round. If you put NY GA as your first round pick (let's say those odds drop to 5%) there is a 95% chance you are not getting US tickets east of the mississippi.

"During the drawing, we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain, the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority"

If you really could see any show, picking NY first runs the risk of eliminating any chance at GA for every show.

Where did you find that quoted language?

It sorta looks like an older page but it says 2020 at top and "updated monday 13:05"

https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing?mobile_site=true

Fascinating. Thank you. Even if it doesn't apply to this tour, it does explain why so many people stress about the rankings, etc. It never occurred to me they'd do it that way until I saw posts here. Definitely makes me reconsider my own rankings.

Yeah, seems like a crummy/less fair way to run it because it reduces people chances of getting multiple shows and particularly if you live in NYC or other difficult to get shows. And would make it seem nearly impossible to get more than one show of GA tix. If you rank any of the GA options that are less than 50% below 1st choice (say MSG), you have a very limited chance of getting anything lower on your list because it'll be your 2nd or 3rd choice and all the GA tix will have gone to people who ranked it 1st choice. Now you've missed out on your 1st choice of MSG and it's virtually impossible to get anything below 1st choice for GA seats. That's a bummer, but with the reserved seats so high, I guess it's less painful. Seems like going round-by-round makes much more sense and is more fair, overall.

Vedd Hedd · January 2020

Lostpawn said:

Vedd Hedd said:

I know there are people who put MSG as like...their 6th choice as a "What the hell, i probably wont get it, but lets give it a shot"...for GA. That is messing with the odds.

Which is why odds should be for 1st priority only. Otherwise they are largely meaningless.

Yeah, it would be good to know your 1st priority is safe.

That said...you can KINDA figure out a bit...if the odds are like...11%, if you put that in as your 5th choice, its probably not going to happen.

BV84003 · January 2020

Poncier said:

Lerxst1992 said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

A lot of confusing replies to this. I believe they are picking round by round. If you put NY GA as your first round pick (let's say those odds drop to 5%) there is a 95% chance you are not getting US tickets east of the mississippi.

"During the drawing, we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain, the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority"

If you really could see any show, picking NY first runs the risk of eliminating any chance at GA for every show.

Where did you find that quoted language?

It sorta looks like an older page but it says 2020 at top and "updated monday 13:05"

https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing?mobile_site=true

That's definitely old info from a 10C run lottery.
Ticketmaster is running this one.

Old info or not, the email from TM/10c/whomever for this tour specifically states that logic and rules will be the same for this as they have always been for previous ten club lotteries, so it's still valid.

North American Tour Odds

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