North American Tour Odds

Lostpawn · January 2020

Start with show #1
- Take all entries where Priority is 1.

- Randomize
- Fill seats, top to bottom. You get what you choose, if you chose Best Available you get GA, until GA is full
- If seats still remain, repeat with list of entries where Priority is 2.

Move on to next show.

BV84003 · January 2020

Anyone care to update the Canadian odds? (Yes, I'm lazy)

NewfieintheUSA · January 2020

Updated Canadian Odds:

Toronto 36/99

Ottawa 64/99

QC 88/99

Hamilton 45/99

mrvector · January 2020

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

So having Baltimore GA or Baltimore Best Available as a 1st priority won't impact my odds of getting NYC as a 2nd priority?

your name gets pulled, they go to your first priority, there are tickets available, you get that show. then they go through all of the other entrants and come back to you again. then they go to your second priority, if there are tickets available, you get that show too. so yes, it will impact your odds. it's like a draft. you put in your rankings, you get what's available when your turn comes up. same thing happens in the next round. at least that's how it's being described here.

travelgirl · January 2020

I can only do Saturday show as my Pearl Jam trip this leg. Given that Baltimore has now gone under 75% for seated, I'm thinking of doing St-Louis instead. Has anyone been to St-Louis for a show ?

tdawe · January 2020

ecdanc said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ecdanc said:

ecdanc said:

tdawe said:

ecdanc said:

ecdanc said:

tdawe said:

ecdanc said:

tdawe said:

Jason7192 said:

tdawe said:

Swordo said:

PJNB said:

CantKeepmedown said:

Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?

Throughout the 4 days they said.

My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.

That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:

Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows

I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.

Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).

And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.

"Not sure what other way you would do it"....
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.

So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.

No, they'd randomly select a person and give them whatever their top priority still available is. They're then kicked to the back of the line until everyone has received one set of tickets.
Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems the simplest algorithm. It's basically drawing all the numbers, putting them on a list, then going through the list top to bottom (repeatedly) until all the tickets are exhausted or all the orders are filled.

FYI: this makes "rank your show choices" work as an actual ranking (your preference) rather than some elaborate game as many here seem to treat it.

If I'm following you, I think the problem with this is that you would have people who ranked a show #2 potentially getting it in front of people who ranked it #1, right? Imagine that an overwhelming number of entries rank MSG first/Baltimore second. Once the MSG tickets are gone, when they pull another one of those entries out of the pile they'd award them Baltimore tickets, despite the fact that it's the second choice and there are people left in the pool who ranked it first, right? Doesn't seem like it works.

(And it would still be an elaborate game, just a different one).

Yes, you're exactly right, which is what makes it more like an actual lottery: you're simply waiting for your number to be drawn. When your number is drawn, you get tickets. I suppose it's a different game, but that game is....a lottery!!

They aren't, BTW, trying to evaluate how much you REALLY want to see a show with these rankings; the rankings simply exist so they know which tickets to give any individual first (according to my theory, which might not be how they do things at all).

I really don't think it will be drawn this way, pretty sure it will be show by show.

Could you describe how you picture that working? I've tried to do that for my vision of things, and I'm genuinely curious about the ramifications of drawing show-by-show, especially as it relates to others' theories on ranking. I imagine a person who has Baltimore first and gets unlucky. They have MSG second, so they're screwed. They have Nashville third, but now everyone with Nashville 1 or 2 is ahead of them? Apologies if I'm misunderstanding.

You've got it right. This maximizes everyone's chance to get their first priority, not to get any tickets whatsoever. The person you're imagining lost out to other people who ranked Baltimore first, not to people who ranked it second or lower as could potentially be the case under the system you're proposing.

Our perceptions of the lottery - how it works in practice and what would constitute a more or less "fair" outcome - are colored by the fact that we're all the type of people who spend their day posting on a dang Pearl Jam message board. You're imagining a person who would prefer Baltimore but if they don't get it would be fine with NYC or Nashville. The process is geared towards people whose closest show is Baltimore and if they don't get that they're not flying to Nashville.

Poncier · January 2020

jets521 said:

Quick question - do they still do the lottery for reserved tickets where you can get 1st/2nd or 9th/10th row, regardless of #?

No, not for these shows as their is a GA section, therefore no rows 1,2,9 & 10.

JimmyV · January 2020

Man, southern Cal locals are the lucky ones for this tour. Three shows with 99% odds?

BV84003 · January 2020

NewfieintheUSA said:

Updated Canadian Odds:

Toronto 36/99
Ottawa 64/99
QC 88/99
Hamilton 45/99

Gracias

Mozzy · January 2020

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

So having Baltimore GA or Baltimore Best Available as a 1st priority won't impact my odds of getting NYC as a 2nd priority?

Not if it goes the way I'm describing, but there hasn't been 100% transparency with how they pick. It's what makes most sense to me and I've seen things to confirm it, but I think others think differently. However, even if people are saying they go show-by-show, I don't see how that would affect impact your odds from what you're saying.

demetrios · January 2020

NewfieintheUSA said:

Updated Canadian Odds:

Toronto 36/99
Ottawa 64/99
QC 88/99
Hamilton 45/99

Thanks!

a5pj · January 2020

travelgirl said:

I can only do Saturday show as my Pearl Jam trip this leg. Given that Baltimore has now gone under 75% for seated, I'm thinking of doing St-Louis instead. Has anyone been to St-Louis for a show ?

The way I think it is, is that 75% is for all entries, not just 1st priority. So if it's your only choice you should be fine.
I'm doing the same as you btw

brucejam28 · January 2020

yikes MSG looking tougher and tougher. will probably end up at 50 for reserved

NewfieintheUSA · January 2020

demetrios said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Updated Canadian Odds:

Toronto 36/99
Ottawa 64/99
QC 88/99
Hamilton 45/99

Thanks!

I can't believe TO is still at 36% for GA

ecdanc · January 2020

tdawe said:

ecdanc said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ecdanc said:

ecdanc said:

tdawe said:

ecdanc said:

ecdanc said:

tdawe said:

ecdanc said:

tdawe said:

Jason7192 said:

tdawe said:

Swordo said:

PJNB said:

CantKeepmedown said:

Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?

Throughout the 4 days they said.

My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.

That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:

Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows

I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.

Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).

And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.

"Not sure what other way you would do it"....
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.

So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.

No, they'd randomly select a person and give them whatever their top priority still available is. They're then kicked to the back of the line until everyone has received one set of tickets.
Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems the simplest algorithm. It's basically drawing all the numbers, putting them on a list, then going through the list top to bottom (repeatedly) until all the tickets are exhausted or all the orders are filled.

FYI: this makes "rank your show choices" work as an actual ranking (your preference) rather than some elaborate game as many here seem to treat it.

If I'm following you, I think the problem with this is that you would have people who ranked a show #2 potentially getting it in front of people who ranked it #1, right? Imagine that an overwhelming number of entries rank MSG first/Baltimore second. Once the MSG tickets are gone, when they pull another one of those entries out of the pile they'd award them Baltimore tickets, despite the fact that it's the second choice and there are people left in the pool who ranked it first, right? Doesn't seem like it works.

(And it would still be an elaborate game, just a different one).

Yes, you're exactly right, which is what makes it more like an actual lottery: you're simply waiting for your number to be drawn. When your number is drawn, you get tickets. I suppose it's a different game, but that game is....a lottery!!

They aren't, BTW, trying to evaluate how much you REALLY want to see a show with these rankings; the rankings simply exist so they know which tickets to give any individual first (according to my theory, which might not be how they do things at all).

I really don't think it will be drawn this way, pretty sure it will be show by show.

Could you describe how you picture that working? I've tried to do that for my vision of things, and I'm genuinely curious about the ramifications of drawing show-by-show, especially as it relates to others' theories on ranking. I imagine a person who has Baltimore first and gets unlucky. They have MSG second, so they're screwed. They have Nashville third, but now everyone with Nashville 1 or 2 is ahead of them? Apologies if I'm misunderstanding.

You've got it right. This maximizes everyone's chance to get their first priority, not to get any tickets whatsoever. The person you're imagining lost out to other people who ranked Baltimore first, not to people who ranked it second or lower as could potentially be the case under the system you're proposing.

Our perceptions of the lottery - how it works in practice and what would constitute a more or less "fair" outcome - are colored by the fact that we're all the type of people who spend their day posting on a dang Pearl Jam message board. You're imagining a person who would prefer Baltimore but if they don't get it would be fine with NYC or Nashville. The process is geared towards people whose closest show is Baltimore and if they don't get that they're not flying to Nashville.

This may well be how it's done, but I humbly suggest that it's a) less fair; and b) what invites all efforts to treat the rankings as a game. The person you describe in your last sentence, doesn't worry about rankings at all. Those who do are left (people who could/would go to different shows) with a guessing game.

UseUrIllusions · January 2020

ritg19 said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

If this is what happens then when they get to one of your priorities that has tickets available (whether its first, second, etc.), then I assume they allot you that show throw you back in the random selection pool again?

I would think that a list of names is randomly selected (lottery style) and numbered. Then they start the above-described selection until there are no remaining tickets or all orders satisfied. Top to bottom. So if you're picked early and played the odds right, you have a good chance of getting all your selections.

The odds displayed are first choices?

Matts3221 · January 2020

JimmyV said:

jamesbrown1832 said:

JimmyV said:

Of course there are reasonably priced hotel rooms in Quebec, too. I just don't know if chancing the weather is worth it.

I don't get the worry about the weather....could be bad, but can deal with it (and could be bad anywhere!). QC is beautiful in the winter and early spring.

It would be a long drive from Boston through snow.

THIS!

I had put in for QC and then a work event came up , I had to take my picks out and I now feel like it is a safer bet then going thru a storm ( I hate driving in the snow anyway at 41 ) maybe if I was in my 20's I would not care.

I did go for the longshot of MSG ( GA or Bust ) so I know my odds are super low of wining that but I will just drive down from Boston that morning and come back right after the show and sleep all day Tuesday.

Also if there is a storm it seems to say that with NY I can get my ticket to another 10C member.

Poncier · January 2020

JimmyV said:

Man, southern Cal locals are the lucky ones for this tour. Three shows with 99% odds?

They are so laid back they forgot to enter the lottery!

tdawe · January 2020

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

ricardofurriel said:

Mozzy said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ricardofurriel said:

PJNB said:

ricardofurriel said:

gotthebottle said:

ricardofurriel said:

MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?

what's your first choice?

Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.

You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.

So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved

In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved

My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.

No, it would be
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available

If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved

I feel like you're both saying the same thing

Can you elaborate please?

The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.

So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available

So having Baltimore GA or Baltimore Best Available as a 1st priority won't impact my odds of getting NYC as a 2nd priority?

Not if it goes the way I'm describing, but there hasn't been 100% transparency with how they pick. It's what makes most sense to me and I've seen things to confirm it, but I think others think differently. However, even if people are saying they go show-by-show, I don't see how that would affect impact your odds from what you're saying.

They said somewhere that it's supposed to run basically the same as the lotteries used to run when the Ten Club was doing them, and we know how that used to work: start with the first show, draw numbers from the pool of people who ranked it first until either the tickets are gone or the pool is empty. If there are still tickets, being drawing from people who ranked it second, and so on until the tickets are gone. Repeat for the next show.

[I'm ignoring the old GA/reserve distinctions because they're no longer applicable]

estarr31 · January 2020

brucejam28 said:

yikes MSG looking tougher and tougher. will probably end up at 50 for reserved

And 50% would be incredible IMO for MSG which was in the teens for 2016 reserved. I'm more surprised by the LA shows at 99%. The 10C layout for those shows is majority of the arena too. Where the SoCal 10Cers at?!

North American Tour Odds

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