North American Tour Odds

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  • NewfieintheUSA
    NewfieintheUSA Posts: 2,416
    jamesbrown1832 said:
    Not sure when these were updated (how are you all seeing update time?), but here are current odds for the Canadian shows to maybe save someone bit of time scrolling:

    TOR 40/99
    OTT 75/99
    QC 99/99 (!!!)
    HAM 51/99

    Changed by picks 4 times....I'm done now.....the waiting begins.... : =)
    These didn't change this morning. Last I checked , the US odds hadn't changed either
  • JimmyV
    JimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 19,598
    Of course there are reasonably priced hotel rooms in Quebec, too. I just don't know if chancing the weather is worth it. 
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • Mozzy
    Mozzy Posts: 154
    The odds updated around 8am PST yesterday 
  • Mozzy
    Mozzy Posts: 154
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    PJNB said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
    So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
    In the "old" system", I would have done
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- NYC Reserved
    3- Baltimore Reserved

    In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- Baltimore Reserved
    3- NYC GA
    4- NYC Reserved

    My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

    I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you. 
    No, it would be
    1. Baltimore Best Available
    2. NYC Best Available

    If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved
    I feel like you're both saying the same thing
  • CantKeepmedown
    CantKeepmedown Portland, Maine Posts: 3,119
    edited January 2020
    Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night.  But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow?  Or is just Sunday?
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    CantKeepmedown said:
    Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night.  But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow?  Or is just Sunday?
    Throughout the 4 days they said.
  • LaFleur
    LaFleur Posts: 829
    JimmyV said:
    Of course there are reasonably priced hotel rooms in Quebec, too. I just don't know if chancing the weather is worth it. 
    I don't get the worry about the weather....could be bad, but can deal with it (and could be bad anywhere!). QC is beautiful in the winter and early spring. 
    Barrie - '98
    Toronto - '96, '00, '03, '05, '06, '16, '20, '22
    Ottawa - '16, '20, '22
    Hamilton - '20, '22
  • Swordo
    Swordo Posts: 266
    PJNB said:
    CantKeepmedown said:
    Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night.  But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow?  Or is just Sunday?
    Throughout the 4 days they said.
    My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.
  • JimmyV
    JimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 19,598
    jamesbrown1832 said:
    JimmyV said:
    Of course there are reasonably priced hotel rooms in Quebec, too. I just don't know if chancing the weather is worth it. 
    I don't get the worry about the weather....could be bad, but can deal with it (and could be bad anywhere!). QC is beautiful in the winter and early spring. 
    It would be a long drive from Boston through snow. 
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • tdawe
    tdawe Posts: 2,091
    Swordo said:
    PJNB said:
    CantKeepmedown said:
    Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night.  But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow?  Or is just Sunday?
    Throughout the 4 days they said.
    My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.
    That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:

    Thursday: Canadian shows
    Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
    Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
    Sunday: Remaining CA shows
    Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 2024
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    jamesbrown1832 said:
    JimmyV said:
    Of course there are reasonably priced hotel rooms in Quebec, too. I just don't know if chancing the weather is worth it. 
    I don't get the worry about the weather....could be bad, but can deal with it (and could be bad anywhere!). QC is beautiful in the winter and early spring. 
    This! 

    Quebec City gets an average of 18 inches of snow in March. That is nothing! And if by some chance there is a snowstorm slowdown and you will be ok. 
  • ricardofurriel
    ricardofurriel Posts: 265
    Mozzy said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    PJNB said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
    So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
    In the "old" system", I would have done
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- NYC Reserved
    3- Baltimore Reserved

    In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- Baltimore Reserved
    3- NYC GA
    4- NYC Reserved

    My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

    I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you. 
    No, it would be
    1. Baltimore Best Available
    2. NYC Best Available

    If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved
    I feel like you're both saying the same thing
    Can you elaborate please? 
    Severed Hand
  • NewfieintheUSA
    NewfieintheUSA Posts: 2,416
    Mozzy said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    PJNB said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
    So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
    In the "old" system", I would have done
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- NYC Reserved
    3- Baltimore Reserved

    In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- Baltimore Reserved
    3- NYC GA
    4- NYC Reserved

    My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

    I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you. 
    No, it would be
    1. Baltimore Best Available
    2. NYC Best Available

    If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved
    I feel like you're both saying the same thing
    No, he is implying NYC would be a priority 3, which is not the case. This is important for priority processing. 
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    ricardofurriel said:
    Mozzy said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    PJNB said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
    So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
    In the "old" system", I would have done
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- NYC Reserved
    3- Baltimore Reserved

    In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- Baltimore Reserved
    3- NYC GA
    4- NYC Reserved

    My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

    I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you. 
    No, it would be
    1. Baltimore Best Available
    2. NYC Best Available

    If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved
    I feel like you're both saying the same thing
    Can you elaborate please? 
    Newfie is saying it the right way. 
  • 1ThoughtKnown
    1ThoughtKnown Posts: 6,155

  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    1ThoughtKnown said:

    I am just going to put the shows I want in a hat and let fate decide what order to put them. 
  • Renfield
    Renfield NYC NY Posts: 1,054
    edited January 2020
    Swordo said:
    PJNB said:
    CantKeepmedown said:
    Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night.  But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow?  Or is just Sunday?
    Throughout the 4 days they said.
    My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.


    “Email confirmations will be sent out on a show-by-show basis over the course of 4 days, beginning Thursday, January 16th.”

    Post edited by Renfield on
  • Christinaogle6
    Christinaogle6 Memphis Posts: 14
    I put GA only.....the odds are dropping. So, should I go back and change it to best avail? Help!!!
  • Jason7192
    Jason7192 Southern Indiana Posts: 318
    tdawe said:
    Swordo said:
    PJNB said:
    CantKeepmedown said:
    Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night.  But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow?  Or is just Sunday?
    Throughout the 4 days they said.
    My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.
    That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:

    Thursday: Canadian shows
    Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
    Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
    Sunday: Remaining CA shows
    I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    Christinaogle6 said:
    I put GA only.....the odds are dropping. So, should I go back and change it to best avail? Help!!!
    Only time you should put GA only imo is if you in no way want to win reserved since your number is so high and would rather fight it out in the public sale for seats. Putting best available does not hurt your GA odds. 

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