I can only do Saturday show as my Pearl Jam trip this leg. Given that Baltimore has now gone under 75% for seated, I'm thinking of doing St-Louis instead. Has anyone been to St-Louis for a show ?
I'll let you know in April. But really, anything above 50% odds (and honestly, probably far lower) is basically a guarantee for first pick. Because that includes everyone who put it as second, third, etc. If you want seated Baltimore, I'd just stick with that. It looks like its a shoe-in at this point unless everyone is just waiting until this evening to enter.
So the percentage is only the percent of your first pick? Like if oakland is 46/99. I have a 46% chance of getting the floor if its my first choice? If its my second choice it's basically impossible to get the floor?
No, the % is based upon every person's entry for that show regardless of what priority they gave it.
I still find it very hard to believe. It makes the percentages meaningless, and they are using exact numbers. It would imply that for every selection that is at 99, I would get in even if it was my 10th priority. It also skews numbers down significantly for popular selections. I don’t get why they would do that.
That’s exactly how it worked last lottery. People were getting their 10th choices for some of the reserve shows that never fell below 99%. Odds are better than they show. Maybe not by much but they Definitley take into account all choices for that show, not just priority 1.
Thanks, friend. I’m gonna get off the soapbox here. Nothing I can do about it anyway! Good luck with your shows, all of you.
Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work. I understand it like this.... if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results. Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.
Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work. I understand it like this.... if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results. Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.
Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
MSG is my first pick - St. Louis is my second. I have "better than average" odds to get MSG and I should very much get St Louis as well.
or you can come to terms and realize you're the only one who can forgive yourself oh yeah... makes much more sense to live in the present tense...
I can only do Saturday show as my Pearl Jam trip this leg. Given that Baltimore has now gone under 75% for seated, I'm thinking of doing St-Louis instead. Has anyone been to St-Louis for a show ?
I would not let 75% bother you much. If you put that in as your 1st priority, I think you should be ok. I won't tell anyone how to pick shows, but I would not be worried if my first pick said 50%.
If someone picks Baltimore as their 6th pick, that will bring the odds down, but if you have it as your first pick you would get priority over them.
This might have been asked and answered already, but submitting for both GA and reserved for a show doesn’t decrease your odds on the second one, right? That seems implied, but I don’t see it explicitly stated anywhere unless I’m missing it.
Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work. I understand it like this.... if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results. Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.
Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
This is how I understand it.
I've been debating the 2 Oakland shows. I put show 1 as my first choice and show 2 as 2nd. I really want the pit for 1 night, so am thinking of switching as night 2 has better odds. But, I am also thinking that most people probably put night 1 as their first choice which basically puts me in the same boat as everyone. And if I switch, then I am basically guaranteeing that I get some of the worst seats for the first -Saturday-show. Any thoughts on this rambling post?
I entered drawing but not listed under my tickets. Anyone else having this issue? I am getting an email confirming request received though.
That page on your account is for previous lotteries run by 10C. The current TM lottery will not show up there. If you received the confirmation email, you are all set.
Post edited by jdizzle8291 on
2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II 2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II 2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work. I understand it like this.... if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results. Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.
Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
This is how I understand it.
I've been debating the 2 Oakland shows. I put show 1 as my first choice and show 2 as 2nd. I really want the pit for 1 night, so am thinking of switching as night 2 has better odds. But, I am also thinking that most people probably put night 1 as their first choice which basically puts me in the same boat as everyone. And if I switch, then I am basically guaranteeing that I get some of the worst seats for the first -Saturday-show. Any thoughts on this rambling post?
If your priority is to be in GA for one show (and it doesn't matter which one), then I would rank the show with better GA odds first.
QQ- I selected MSG as my only show for tickets. When completing the Ticketmaster steps it never asked me about assigning priority. Assume this was because it was my only show.
Can anyone else who only put in for a single show confirm that they were also not asked to assign priority?
PS- I wanted to go to multiple shows but my wife (teacher) and my kids (2 different schools) all have different spring breaks covering 4/4-4/19, half of which we will be in Florida. Should have seen my wife's face and I said I wanted to hit some PJ shows during this time. Oh well. Gotta ask or you never know the answer.
QQ- I selected MSG as my only show for tickets. When completing the Ticketmaster steps it never asked me about assigning priority. Assume this was because it was my only show.
Can anyone else who only put in for a single show confirm that they were also not asked to assign priority?
PS- I wanted to go to multiple shows but my wife (teacher) and my kids (2 different schools) all have different spring breaks covering 4/4-4/19, half of which we will be in Florida. Should have seen my wife's face and I said I wanted to hit some PJ shows during this time. Oh well. Gotta ask or you never know the answer.
I can't remember if I was ever really "asked" to assign priority - after you selected the shows you wanted, the next screen just listed them and you could drag and drop them where you wanted.
QQ- I selected MSG as my only show for tickets. When completing the Ticketmaster steps it never asked me about assigning priority. Assume this was because it was my only show.
Can anyone else who only put in for a single show confirm that they were also not asked to assign priority?
PS- I wanted to go to multiple shows but my wife (teacher) and my kids (2 different schools) all have different spring breaks covering 4/4-4/19, half of which we will be in Florida. Should have seen my wife's face and I said I wanted to hit some PJ shows during this time. Oh well. Gotta ask or you never know the answer.
You will not be asked for priority if you only entered one show, because
there is nothing to prioritize. Can confirm, my wife's only entry is
Baltimore and we weren't asked about priority.
2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II 2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II 2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
Starting to think winning NYC and Baltimore might be a tall order.
With two shows for the entire northeast it was always going to be that way. It’s looking much better than I expected.
What were the odds for reserved in 2016 when they were at MSG and does anyone remember the odds for Fenway a couple years ago for reserved not GA. Just curious. Cause as of right now it looks like ten club was able to obtain more tickets this go around. Which I tip my hat off to them. Hope we all get at least one of the shows we put in for.
I lost both the 2016 and 2018 reserved for Boston. it was my 2nd priority, but I remember both shows having good odds. I was surprised I lost. In my experience I often do better for tickets far away from where i live, which is NYC, and I almost always lose for NYC. In 2013 Brooklyn was my 1st and 2nd priority and i lost both shows :(
38 concerts and counting "I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine"
I entered drawing but not listed under my tickets. Anyone else having this issue? I am getting an email confirming request received though.
That page on your account is for previous lotteries run by 10C. The current TM lottery will not show up there. If you received the confirmation email, you are all set.
I entered drawing but not listed under my tickets. Anyone else having this issue? I am getting an email confirming request received though.
Take down this picture, it has your presale code on it
Not saying it was wrong to delete the screenshot (obviously), but do we think there's anything anyone could do if they got your code? Do you need to be signed into Ticketmaster with an email that matches your code?
Starting to think winning NYC and Baltimore might be a tall order.
With two shows for the entire northeast it was always going to be that way. It’s looking much better than I expected.
What were the odds for reserved in 2016 when they were at MSG and does anyone remember the odds for Fenway a couple years ago for reserved not GA. Just curious. Cause as of right now it looks like ten club was able to obtain more tickets this go around. Which I tip my hat off to them. Hope we all get at least one of the shows we put in for.
I lost both the 2016 and 2018 reserved for Boston. it was my 2nd priority, but I remember both shows having good odds. I was surprised I lost. In my experience I often do better for tickets far away from where i live, which is NYC, and I almost always lose for NYC. In 2013 Brooklyn was my 1st and 2nd priority and i lost both shows :(
Yeah I think the odds were probably super low for Brooklyn. But it seems ten club has gotten more tickets this time around. Hoping at least. Fingers crossed.
I entered drawing but not listed under my tickets. Anyone else having this issue? I am getting an email confirming request received though.
Take down this picture, it has your presale code on it
Not saying it was wrong to delete the screenshot (obviously), but do we think there's anything anyone could do if they got your code? Do you need to be signed into Ticketmaster with an email that matches your code?
No idea, but I wouldn't want to get screwed over if someone else tried to use my code
I entered drawing but not listed under my tickets. Anyone else having this issue? I am getting an email confirming request received though.
That page on your account is for previous lotteries run by 10C. The current TM lottery will not show up there. If you received the confirmation email, you are all set.
I entered drawing but not listed under my tickets. Anyone else having this issue? I am getting an email confirming request received though.
Take down this picture, it has your presale code on it
Not saying it was wrong to delete the screenshot (obviously), but do we think there's anything anyone could do if they got your code? Do you need to be signed into Ticketmaster with an email that matches your code?
No idea, but I wouldn't want to get screwed over if someone else tried to use my code
Yes, absolutely. I guess my question is whether it would work if you tried to pass off your Ten Club code to a friend or family member (or sell it I guess) and have them use it with their Ticketmaster account. On the one hand I wouldn't think so - I'd think the 10C account number that the code relates to needs to have an email address that matches the one you use to make the Ticketmaster lottery selections - but on the other hand I don't recall seeing that spelled out.
I love all of the feverish anxiety permeating this thread! It's going to be such a release once the anticipation and minutiae of this process has passed and tickets are announced and the reality dawns on everyone that a Pearl Jam tour and album release is on its way!!!
I can only do Saturday show as my Pearl Jam trip this leg. Given that Baltimore has now gone under 75% for seated, I'm thinking of doing St-Louis instead. Has anyone been to St-Louis for a show ?
I would not let 75% bother you much. If you put that in as your 1st priority, I think you should be ok. I won't tell anyone how to pick shows, but I would not be worried if my first pick said 50%.
If someone picks Baltimore as their 6th pick, that will bring the odds down, but if you have it as your first pick you would get priority over them.
Thanks ! I think I'll wait and see what the odds are tonight. I can do either one, I jstu want to make sure I don't miss out. I'm only doing 2 shows this leg (1 local and 1 away) so I jsut want to get tickets :-)
Comments
But really, anything above 50% odds (and honestly, probably far lower) is basically a guarantee for first pick. Because that includes everyone who put it as second, third, etc. If you want seated Baltimore, I'd just stick with that. It looks like its a shoe-in at this point unless everyone is just waiting until this evening to enter.
I understand it like this....
if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.
Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.
you're the only one who can forgive yourself oh yeah...
makes much more sense to live in the present tense...
1995: 7/11 (Chicago) 2009: 8/23, 8/24 (Chicago) 2010: 5/9 (Cleveland) 2013 7/19 (Chicago) 2016: 4/9 (Miami), 5/1 (NYC), 8/20 & 8/22 (Chicago)
2018: 8/18 (Chicago) & 8/20 (Chicago) 2022: 9/11 (NYC), 9/18 (STL) 2023: 9/5 (Chicago), 9/7 (Chicago) 2024: 8/29 (Chicago), 8/31 (Chicago)
If someone picks Baltimore as their 6th pick, that will bring the odds down, but if you have it as your first pick you would get priority over them.
Nuclear fission
I've been debating the 2 Oakland shows. I put show 1 as my first choice and show 2 as 2nd. I really want the pit for 1 night, so am thinking of switching as night 2 has better odds. But, I am also thinking that most people probably put night 1 as their first choice which basically puts me in the same boat as everyone. And if I switch, then I am basically guaranteeing that I get some of the worst seats for the first -Saturday-show. Any thoughts on this rambling post?
2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
Can anyone else who only put in for a single show confirm that they were also not asked to assign priority?
PS- I wanted to go to multiple shows but my wife (teacher) and my kids (2 different schools) all have different spring breaks covering 4/4-4/19, half of which we will be in Florida. Should have seen my wife's face and I said I wanted to hit some PJ shows during this time. Oh well. Gotta ask or you never know the answer.
2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
"I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine"
2010: Newark 5/18 MSG 5/20-21 2011: PJ20 9/3-4 2012: Made In America 9/2
2013: Brooklyn 10/18-19 Philly 10/21-22 Hartford 10/25 2014: ACL10/12
2015: NYC 9/23 2016: Tampa 4/11 Philly 4/28-29 MSG 5/1-2 Fenway 8/5+8/7
2017: RRHoF 4/7 2018: Fenway 9/2+9/4 2021: Sea Hear Now 9/18
2022: MSG 9/11 2024: MSG 9/3-4 Philly 9/7+9/9 Fenway 9/15+9/17
2025: Pittsburgh 5/16+5/18
Have fun at the shows